Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:29 PM   Moonset 3:10 AM

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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 105 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of tonight - South wind 5 knots rising to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Patchy dense fog. Waves nearly calm. Saturday - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot. Saturday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then veering northwest early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 180241 AAA AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 941 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Marine dense fog may linger through tonight.

- Chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday evening.

- Warmer and more humid today through Sunday.

- Wet and a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

UPDATE
Issued 941 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Quiet weather is expected across most of the area tonight, with mostly clear skies and light winds under the western edge of high pressure. One thing to watch though will be fog/stratus that may sneak onshore later tonight. Currently watching an area of fog/stratus via satellite that is gradually heading westward towards the shore from roughly Port Washington down to Kenosha.
Put some patchy fog in the forecast for now. Not out of the question for dense fog later tonight into the early morning hours, but confidence isn't high at this time due to models not handling the current location and areal coverage of the fog well. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for the remainder of the night.

DDV

SHORT TERM
Issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Tonight through Saturday night:

Scattered clouds across eastern areas will dissipate after the loss of daytime heating. High pressure will move across Lake Michigan tonight. Some fog is possible tonight, but south winds around 5 mph on the backside of the high may be enough to limit fog development.

Clear skies will bring another warm day on Saturday. Light south winds will become southwest during the day, ahead of a weak surface trough tied to low pressure in southern Canada. This will move across southern Wisconsin during the evening bringing a small chance for a brief shower or thunderstorm. There will be a few hundred J of Cape, with a capped environment, but the surface convergence will be weakening as it moves through limiting the forcing. Most areas will be dry. High pressure will them move through later Saturday night.

Marquardt

LONG TERM
Issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Sunday through Friday:

Dry and warm conditions are expected across southern Wisconsin through much of the day Sunday as weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure move northeast across Wisconsin. High temperatures are expected to be in the low 80s.

A series of upper level shortwaves will traverse Wisconsin early next week. The first upper shortwave trough will move into the region Sunday evening, bringing with it surface low pressure and an associated frontal system. There is some discrepancy between the models on the timing of this shortwave and the associated showers and storms, but overall the shortwave and low appear to move into northwestern Wisconsin Monday morning which would limit the strength and coverage of storms that develop. However, GFS/NAM soundings indicate modest CAPE developing in the afternoon which combined with modest 0-6km wind shear may lead to the development of stronger storms if diurnal heating is able to effectively modify the airmass.

The next shortwave trough and surface low will propagate through Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon and are deeper/stronger than the preceding features on Monday. Stronger thunderstorms are more likely to develop as these move through Wisconsin, with GFS soundings indicating steep mid-level lapse rates, high CAPE values, and strong 0-6km shear. The SPC currently has southern Wisconsin in an area of 15% probability for severe weather within 25 miles of a point. As such, Tuesday will need to be monitored over the next few days.

Showers and storms look to impact southern Wisconsin again on Wednesday before upper level ridging and high pressure build into the midwest for the later half of next week.

Falkinham

AVIATION
Issued 941 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Widespread VFR conditions will continue tonight into Saturday under the western edge of high pressure. The exception to that would be if any fog/stratus sneaks onshore later tonight into early Saturday. Put some reduced visibility and scattered lower clouds in the TAFs for now and will continue to monitor satellite trends. Not out the question for some brief dense fog and/or low stratus, but confidence isn't high in that potential at this time. Light and variable winds tonight will pick up a bit out of the south ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. Could see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as the trough pushes through tomorrow evening.

DDV

MARINE
Issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Dense fog will continue across the southern half of Lake Michigan and from North Point Light south. It may also impact other parts of the nearshore waters at times. There is uncertainly how long it will continue but may remain through the night. Winds will remain light tonight so some fog may redevelop across the other nearshore area and the rest of the open waters. Winds and waves will be below small craft levels through Sunday. South winds will increase Monday and again Tuesday night.

Marquardt

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Dense Fog Advisory
LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671- LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874- LMZ876-LMZ878 until 4 AM Saturday.

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