Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 7:44 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 647 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Today - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 6 seconds. Scattered sprinkles this morning. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 5 seconds. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 3 seconds. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight. Tue - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers.Wed - S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers.Wed night - E winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ100 647 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure remains centered northeast of the waters today low pressure passes offshore in the open atlantic today and tonight. Broad high pressure is forecast to center over the western atlantic early this week bringing a more southerly flow back across the waters. Low pressure approaches the coast by mid- week.

FXUS61 KGYX 111052 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 652 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cool and unsettled pattern is expected through the weekend as a longwave trough gradually crosses the area. There will be chances for afternoon showers this weekend, with some lingering into the evening hours. Below average temperatures are expected, with a trend warmer into early week. A more widespread rain is likely Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
650am Update...Added some valley fog to the Upper Andro and Saco/Pemi area early this morning. Some obs of quarter mile vis here. This should dissipate quickly this morning with both sun and clouds being a deterrent. Otherwise, a batch of sprinkles are moving SW along the coast. Much of this is likely virga, but could see a few drops reach the surface as it pushes towards Portland early this morning. Modified some temperature profiles through the morning, with more attention to current cloud distribution. This follows a cold start but quick recovery for areas that are starting clear, and a mild start but weak warming for those with more overcast skies.

Previous Discussion...
The region remains between weather systems as low pressure passes well off the Atlantic coast today. NE flow will keep moist air in the low to mid levels, resulting in another chance for light showers this afternoon. These will build out of diurnal cu filling in across the CWA through the morning hours.
Not much change in thinking on location, but did keep isolated PoPs in the area a bit longer into the evening. This is based on observations the past two nights of nocturnal showers continuing in NH, as well as HRRR/ARW depicting these ongoing amid some convergence.

Highs today shouldn't vary much from Friday, climbing into the mid to upper 50s. We are still under a similar airmass, and if it wern't for the moisture from 800 to 900mb, it would be a very dry day.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Another challenging forecast tonight in regards to sky condition and thus overnight lows. While much of the initial clouds in the evening should fade w/ loss of daytime heating, clouds Fri night remained broken or overcast in many locations. Think tonight will be a similar story with little change in pattern.

This means pockets that will remain warmer around 40, and other that may cool 10 degrees further due to radiational cooling.
Current sky forecast depicts clouds thinning once again across much of southern ME and this time more of NH. Thus these spots will be scrutinized for their overnight lows. It's reasonable to say that sheltered areas under these clearing calm skies will likely see patchy frost develop. With the Frost/Freeze program expanding across the interior today, should confidence and areal coverage fit, Frost headlines may be needed tonight.

Sunday will offer another chance of diurnal showers spurred on by continued instability in the mid to low levels. Warm level aloft retreats by Sunday, giving a deeper mixing layer as well as the potential for slightly more CAPE. With some added convergence due to a passing wave to the south, this evening's MPAS run does depict the chance for some showers to develop graupel across northern NH and far western ME. Would still like to see more MUCAPE above 100 j/kg however for this to be more likely.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
An upper level trough crosses New England late this weekend, with a welcome warming trend following its passage albeit with some rain (although not a washout). A more organized system brings better chances for more widespread rainfall around the middle of next week.

Shortwave ridging moves in behind the departing upper level low Sunday night, with rain shower chances diminishing and some clearing. Overall it could be a good radiational cooling night depending on the timing and degree of clearing, with lows most likely near 40 but potentially down into the mid-30s in more ideal scenarios. With the growing season active everywhere but the mountain zones, will have to keep an eye on trends in case a frost/freeze headline may be necessary.

High pressure slides offshore to the east on Monday with flow turning more zonal aloft. Meanwhile upstream, another upper level trough will be spinning across northern Ontario into Quebec. Ridging should initially suppress precipitation chances, but it is short- lived and transient so by the time we get into peak heating/mixing we'll start seeing pressure falls and associated warm advection from the west. These will support high temperatures largely in the 60s, along with diurnal rain shower activity. With the offshore high, there ought to be a strong sea breeze that will limit temperatures along the coast.

There is good model agreement by now WRT the aforementioned Canadian trough bringing a warm front across New England Monday night through Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. This more organized system brings better potential for more widespread rain to the area though there's still quite a bit of uncertainty WRT to QPF at this range. Though, the majority of ensemble members keep totals around 0.75" or less which doesn't raise too many alarm bells for hydro, however PWATs will likely rise above 1.0 inch and SW flow parallel to the front gives some pause... so it'll be another item to watch trends on.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...VFR. Some SHRA across interior terminals today, but these shouldn't impact vis. Winds will also be light, with a wind shift possible at coastal terminals amid a afternoon seabreeze.

Long Term...VFR prevails into Mon, except brief MVFR in SHRA possible over the interior and west. More widespread SHRA/RA and associated restrictions are likely to develop Tue into Wed, with VFR returning Wed into Thu.

MARINE
Short Term...Below SCA conditions with winds generally less than 20 kt and waves 1 to 3 ft through Sunday. Lighter winds will tend to be variable, but in general onshore flow expected today before turning north overnight. A return to onshore is expected again Sunday.

Long Term...Light flow and quiet seas are expected over the extended forecast period with SCA conditions unlikely to occur.
In general, winds will turn out of the SW to start the next week however daily sea breezes and a nebulous pressure gradient will muddy this progression a bit. The best chance for 25+ kt winds, right now, comes around Tue with a more organized system potentially crossing the region which also brings potential for rain and fog. This system likely departs around Wednesday night with drier air filters in by Thursday, however the trough may cut off near the coast which will impact timing a bit.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Sat -- 01:50 AM EDT     10.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:29 AM EDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
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Sat -- 03:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:32 AM EDT     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
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Sat -- 04:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
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