Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
York Harbor, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:01PM Monday October 15, 2018 6:25 AM EDT (10:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:19PMMoonset 10:46PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 534 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft this afternoon. A chance of showers this morning, then showers likely this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers likely in the evening.
Tue..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ100 534 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A warm front will lift north across the gulf of maine today before a cold front moves across the waters from the northwest tonight. Strong winds continue behind the front into Tuesday. Another cold front moves through on Wednesday with gusty northwest winds in its wake. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near York Harbor, ME
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location: 43.13, -70.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 150938
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
538 am edt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis
An upper trough will move across the region today pushing a
warm front north across the area producing showers. As the upper
trough exits this evening it will trail an associated cold
front that will move across the area tonight. Behind this cold
front drier and cooler conditions and some gusty winds are
expected later tonight and Tuesday. Another cold front moves
across the region Wednesday with much colder and drier air
along with some gusty northwest winds in its wake through the
remainder of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
535 am update: quick update to make mention of some developing
valley fog for next few hours as skies still remain clear and
winds calm. Temp dewpoint spreads near zero over much of the
area.

Previous discussion:
a fast moving upper trof will approach and develop an
increasing southwest flow of WAA showers today. Hrrr and other
models generally agree on timing of showers to move into
southwest nh by mid morning and then overspread the rest of the
forecast area by early afternoon. See no reason not to accept
this guidance so used the blended guidance. Temps will remain in
the 50s even though enough WAA occurs aloft that would support
somewhat higher temps. Staying close to rfcqpf through the day
with this system which is generally .25-.50 inches into this
evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
A cold front moves across the area this evening keeping showers
going into the evening along and ahead of the front. Behind the
fropa later tonight cooler and drier conditions are expected.

Gusty west winds will develop later this evening, especially
over higher terrain. Tuesday will be dominated by a dry westerly
flow and cool temps ranging in the 40s in the mountains to mid
50s over southern and coastal areas.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Last time I worked the long term desk we were tracking record
heat... But there are no signs of summer in the extended this go
around.

There is strong ensemble support for a series of seasonably
strong trofs cross the northeast thru early next week. The first
in the extended period... Actually the second in the series... Is
modeled to be the strongest cold shot of them all. That trof
approaches and crosses the region wed. There will be forcing for
ascent... But given the continental nature of the moisture
widespread significant precip is unlikely. Model forecasts show
moisture mainly confined to the mid levels... And more of a
scattered sprinkle or graupel shower pattern. The one exception
will be nwrn slopes where trapped low level moisture may allow
for a deeper column for precip to develop in. So I have higher
pop in the favored upslope regions there.

By Thu the area will be flirting with h8 temps in the low teens
below zero. With CAA leading to a deep boundary layer... Mixing
to this level would yield low to mid 40s... And that is being
generous. It is looking like at least a widespread 10 to 15
degrees below normal for highs thu. That deep mixing will also
tap low to mid level flow around 30 to 35 kts... And so gusty nw
winds are expected. So while areas S of the mtns may climb into
the 40s... It will still feel like the 30s. The cold air mass
will also ensure that any remaining showers in the mtns will
fall as snow... And I have light accumulations for the higher
elevations thru thu.

Surface ridging tries to nose in Thu night... And I have made
this the coldest low temps of the week. I did bump down the
typical radiational cooling cold spots from the multi-model
consensus.

Fri night into Sat a warm front will lift across the area and
that may allow temps to rebound towards normal. But it will
likely come with abundant cloud cover and some WAA precip... So i
do not think we get all the way back to normal. The next trof
will cross the area Sun and send temps back below normal to
start next week.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
Short term... MVFR to ifr conditions will spread from southwest
to northeast today in developing showers. A cold front moves
across the region allowing conditions to becomeVFR in its wake
by later tonight. VFR conditions expected tue.

Long term... Overall colder and drier air masses will dominate
the forecast thru the end of the week. With a downslope
component to the wind that will also help to ensure areas S of
the mtns stayVFR. On the NW side however... Hie and maybe even
leb will see MVFR cigs. With the main trof passage Wed and wed
night shsn cannot be ruled out at hie... And local ifr conditions
are possible. Will also be looking at a couple days of gusty wnw
flow. Surface gusts in excess of 25 kts are
possible... Especially thu.

Marine
Short term... An increasing southwest flow late today and tonight
will warrant a SCA over the bays and gales over the outer
waters. Behind a cold frontal passage later this evening winds
will veer and become more westerly and increase further so the
gales over the outer waters and sca's over the bays will
continue through Tuesday morning. By afternoon winds should
begin to diminish. As the pressure gradient slackens.

Long term... Extended period of CAA and offshore flow is likely
thru the remainder of the week. While strong SCA conditions are
likely wed... Another strong cold front will cross the waters
moving into thu. A period of gale force wind gusts are possible
on all waters... But especially outside of the bays.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 2 pm edt
Tuesday for anz151-153.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 2 pm edt Tuesday for
anz150-152-154.

Near term... Marine
short term... Marine
long term... Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 11 mi86 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 49°F 1021.7 hPa (-0.6)44°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 11 mi101 min ENE 1 34°F 34°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 12 mi82 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 57°F1 ft1021.7 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 14 mi38 min N 2.9 G 4.1 38°F 57°F1022.1 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 15 mi86 min W 2.9 36°F 36°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi50 min 56°F2 ft
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 38 mi36 min W 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 56°F1 ft1021.5 hPa (-0.3)45°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 42 mi38 min 42°F 57°F1021.9 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 42 mi82 min SW 3.9 G 7.8 54°F 60°F1 ft1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH10 mi90 minN 00.13 miFog38°F36°F96%1021.9 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH18 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair33°F33°F100%1021.6 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME19 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair28°F27°F96%1022.5 hPa

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W7SW5W6W9W9W8W7SW6SW10SW8S3S3S4SW4W3W5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW3S4CalmW7SW6SW7W7W9W7W7W7W6W5SW4W3SW4SW4SW4SW4W6W4W5SW3SW6
2 days agoN5NE5N6NW6NW12W6NW15
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Tide / Current Tables for York Harbor, Maine
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York Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:23 AM EDT     8.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:28 AM EDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT     8.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:11 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.93.75.77.3887.15.53.82.31.61.62.54.167.68.58.67.86.34.42.61.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:59 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:29 AM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:57 PM EDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.610.80.60.4-0-0.9-1.4-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.40.510.90.60.40.1-0.7-1.4-1.7-1.5-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.