Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Macedon, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:42PM Sunday May 28, 2017 8:10 PM EDT (00:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:35AMMoonset 10:39PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 431 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 51 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201705290300;;361089 FZUS51 KBUF 282038 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 431 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ043-044-290300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Macedon, NY
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location: 43.13, -77.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 282234
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
634 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will shift north into western
new york late this afternoon, with showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms becoming more widespread overnight, as an occluded
frontal system crosses the region. Showers will taper off from west
to east on Monday. More showers will be possible Monday night into
Tuesday, as a weakening cold front crosses the region. In fact, mild
temperatures and afternoon showers will be possible through the
coming week, as a broad upper level trough will linger across the
region.

Near term through Monday
Regional mrms imagery indicates widespread showers and thunderstorms
oriented along a warm front stretched across northern oh and western
pa where a tongue of 60+ degree dewpoints lies. Closer to home, a
few strong to severe cells are moving north on the nose of the front
shifting across cattaraugus creek near 630pm. Intense storm cores as
observed on radar indicates some large hail is possible into this
evening.

Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to lift north
across western ny early this evening then several rounds of showers
with a chance of thunderstorms will be possible overnight into
Monday morning along the occluding warm front. Activity is expected
to taper off from west to east during the day on Monday as the upper
level shortwave driving the activity moves overhead, with NVA and
associated subsidence behind the wave drying things out. While much
of the precipitation will be convective in nature allowing for
locally higher qpfs, a general quarter to half inch can be expected
across the forecast area from this activity.

Regarding temperatures, given the moisture-rich high dewpoint air
that will be advecting into the region tonight, temperatures will
only bottom out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Drier, but still
relatively warm air will move in behind the departing mid upper
level troughing on Tuesday, and temperatures should top out in the
low to mid 70s away from the lakes. However, with southwesterly
winds strengthening behind the trough, cooler readings will be found
downwind of the lakes, with upper 60s prevailing.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
An upper level closed low over the southern shore of lake winnipeg
this afternoon will drop across the great lakes and influence our
weather for the Monday night through Wednesday night time period.

Several shortwaves rotating around the upper level low will give
increase chances for showers and thunderstorms. Though this wet
month of may will close out with thunderstorms, much of the time
will be rainfree.

Monday night the first such shortwave, and associated low level wind
speed max, will near our region. Convergence along this little speed
max in the lower levels and around 100 to 250 j kg of MUCAPE may
produce a shower or thunderstorm, with activity later in the
evening across wny, and in the predawn hours east of lake ontario.

Another shortwave impulse on Tuesday, combined with the upper level
low drawing closer will bring increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity will likely form on lake
breeze boundaries through the afternoon and evening hours. Mlcape
values of 500 to 750 j kg and pwat values around three quarters of
an inch will provide the instability and moisture that when
interacting with the lift along lake breeze boundaries, convection
is likely to form. A morning inversion will likely keep this
convection at bay, but by noontime convection should be able to
overcome the decreasing capping inversion. Moisture is not overly
impressive, and activity may be just scattered in nature. Northeast
of the lakes, a southwest stabilizing wind flow will promote
sunshine and likely a dry day for areas such as metro buffalo, and
north of watertown. Winds will also be gusty within the sunshine
northeast of the lakes, with gusts 30 to 35 mph.

Wednesday may be a bit more active as upper level heights fall in
response to the upper level low reaching the region, and its trough
axis crossing the lower lakes. Similar to Tuesday, much of the
activity will be upon lake breeze boundaries, with showers and
thunderstorms sprouting in the afternoon heating. Northeast of the
lakes, a stabilizing lake induced airmass will maintain metro
buffalo, and areas north of watertown dry through the day, with a
gusty breeze. With the upper level trough axis passing through
chances for storms will be possible across the region through the
evening hours.

Temperatures will be held in check by the upper level low, with
highs in the 60s, (cooler Wednesday with the upper level low upon
us) and overnight temperatures back into the mid 50s to upper 40s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The region will be in a longwave cyclonic flow during the
period with frequent chances for precipitation and slightly
below normal temperatures. There will be periods of dry weather
too, however timing embedded shortwaves is difficult this far
out.

On Thursday the upper level low will be centered just south of
hudson bay with a ridge of high pressure at the surface across
the appalachians. For the most part, this surface ridge should
keep the area dry, with a small chance for showers across the
north country Thursday afternoon with the passage of a weak
shortwave. Highs will be in the mid 60s to around 70.

Model consensus drops the upper level low into southern quebec by
late Friday, which will eventually push a cold front southward
across the region. Model guidance differs on the timing, with a
chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm along and ahead
of the cold front late Thursday night through Friday evening.

This front is likely to stall to the south of the area late
Friday night and Saturday. It will be close, but as long as it
remains to the south surface ridging will keep Saturday dry.

Highs on Friday and Saturday will be on the cool side behind
this front... Mainly in the 60s.

The front should meander northward back into the area on Sunday.

Some guidance develops a wave along this front, with another chance
for showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The best chance will be
across southern portions of the CWA which will be closest to the
boundary.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Showers and thunderstorms currently tracking north across the ny
western southern tier this evening ahead of an occluding warm front.

Later this evening into the overnight coverage will expand,
especially closer to 06z. Periods of MVFR will be possible in
heavier -shra -tsra, with MVFR CIGS becoming more widespread after
06z, with plenty of lingering moisture across the area.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from west to east after 12z
Monday, as the upper level disturbance moves through.VFR conditions
will prevail behind the system through the rest of the period.

Outlook...

Monday night... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Friday... MainlyVFR... With localized MVFR possible
in scattered (mainly afternoon) showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Lake breeze winds to 10-15kts will slacken this evening then
southeasterly winds will freshen tonight ahead of an approaching
upper level disturbance. This disturbance will move through tonight,
accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Skies will clear out
behind the disturbance on Monday, however, southwesterly winds will
freshen to around 15kts by Monday afternoon, resulting in light to
moderate chop on the northeastern ends of the lakes.

The SW flow will strengthen further Tuesday, as a cold front moves
through, potentially generating small craft conditions on the east
end of lake erie. In fact, an upper level trough will linger through
much of the coming week, with SW flow continuing as a result. This
will serve to reinforce afternoon lake breezes northeast of the
lakes, resulting in at least near-sca conditions each afternoon
through the rest of the week.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Smith wood
near term... Smith wood
short term... Thomas
long term... Apffel
aviation... Smith wood
marine... Smith wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 19 mi71 min ESE 4.1 G 6 57°F 1007.8 hPa (-1.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 20 mi41 min 57°F 1006.8 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 34 mi81 min ENE 9.7 G 9.7 53°F 48°F1 ft1006.7 hPa (-1.8)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 47 mi41 min SSE 7 G 8.9 75°F 1007.7 hPa56°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY20 mi17 minS 1010.00 miOvercast75°F60°F60%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmSW4NE3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3CalmE4E7E7SE4S844SE7
G14
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1 day agoW12W9W8W7W6W6W6W5W5W3W4W3W3W3W4N4N63CalmCalmCalmW3CalmN4
2 days agoE4E5N4N3W3W4W4W5W7W7NW7W8W9W9NW9NW10NW6NW7NW9NW4W13
G18
W7W8W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.