Saturday, January20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Macedon, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:09PM Saturday January 20, 2018 9:21 PM EST (02:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:36AMMoonset 8:44PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 244 Pm Est Sat Jan 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy early this afternoon, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves in ice free areas 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves in ice free areas occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers during the day, then rain and snow showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201801210415;;739302 FZUS51 KBUF 201944 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 244 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-210415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Macedon, NY
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location: 43.13, -77.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 210044
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
744 pm est Sat jan 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the region tonight. A warm front will
push north across the lower great lakes on Sunday, bringing a chance
for light precipitation. More significant rainfall is expected
Monday, as a large storm system tracks into the great lakes, with
temperatures warming well into the 40s ahead of this system.

Near term through Sunday
A cold front is draped across southern canada this evening. The
pressure gradient between the canadian low and high pressure off the
southeast coast has relaxed this evening and southwest winds have
been diminishing. Upslope conditions have led to clouds in the tug
hill plateau region for much of the day. As the cold front sags
southward and approaches nys tonight, clouds will increase across
the north country. As moisture increases, there is a chance of
flurries across the north country. Zonal flow aloft will keep the
cold front nearly stationary near the international border through
Sunday morning.

An expansive region of low-level stratus is moving northward across
the ohio valley this evening. This cloud deck will continue to move
northward tonight reaching kjhw around midnight. Moisture profiles
depict a well saturated boundary layer across the southern tier into
Sunday morning. Drizzle will be possible. The stratus deck will move
northward across western ny through Sunday morning. Overnight
temperatures generally in the lower to mid 30s, potential rising a
bit toward morning as anticipate area of stratus moves into the
region.

Cloudy and damp conditions on Sunday, the gradual increase in
boundary layer moisture sustaining an extensive stratus deck and
possible fog as snow continues to melt. Rainfall potential will
increase to some degree through the day under sustained yet weak
isentropic ascent. Still difficult to discern the validity of the
rainfall output for those models prone to carry a moist bias in this
environment, but the underlying setup with a warm frontal structure
in the vicinity would suggest at least a chance for development
through the day Sunday. Temperatures Sunday generally in the upper
30s to lower 40s despite extensive cloud cover.

Short term Sunday night through Wednesday night
Sunday night and Monday low pressure over kansas will track north-
eastward to around the wisconsin-illinois border... With its attendant
warm front first extending further eastward into our region Sunday
night... Then slowly lifting northward to about the new york state
thruway corridor by the end of the day Monday. Slowly increasing
warm air advection isentropic lift and deepening moisture out ahead
of the warm front will bring slowly increasing chances for some spotty
light precipitation Sunday night from southwest to northeast... Followed
by a round of more widespread light precip on Monday as the warm front
slowly lifts northward across areas south of lake ontario. In the
forecast... Have reflected this by primarily chance pops Sunday night
ramping up to the high likely categorical ranges on Monday. Projected
model soundings and statistical guidance both suggest that ptype Sunday
night will be primarily rain south of lake ontario with more of a
wintry mix across the eastern lake ontario region... Before this goes
over to mostly rain during Monday as the atmospheric column continues
to warm.

Compared to yesterday... The guidance packages have come into somewhat
better agreement on the northward progress of the surface warm front...

with most now suggesting that the boundary will make it to about the
new york state thruway by late afternoon early evening. Those areas
that do manage to fully break into the warm sector on Monday (i.E.,
the southern tier and interior portions of the finger lakes) will be
likely to the see the rain temporarily taper off to some widely
scattered leftover showers during the afternoon... Along with temps
surging into the upper 40s and lower 50s as a milder southerly flow
becomes established. Meanwhile along and to the north of the boundary...

rain and cooler temperatures will likely continue through the end of
the day... With highs ranging from the mid 40s just north of the front
to the mid to upper 30s near the saint lawrence valley... Where a low-
level east-northeasterly flow will remain established.

Monday night and Tuesday the surface low will continue tracking
northeastward across the central great lakes and into southern quebec.

In the process of doing so... It will finish pushing the warm front
across our area Monday night... Followed by its trailing cold front
on Tuesday. Plentiful lift and moisture accompanying the warm and
cold frontal passages will translate into fairly high probabilities
for widespread precipitation during this period... And as such have
continued with categorical pops. With a mild airmass in place... The
majority of this will just fall as plain rain Monday night into
Tuesday morning... Before mixing with and or changing to wet snow
across the higher terrain Tuesday afternoon as cold advection sets
up in the wake of the cold frontal passage. The one possible exception
to this evolution in ptype will be across the saint lawrence valley
and adjoining portions of the north country... Where the initial
lingering northeasterly flow colder low level air out ahead of the
cold front could lead to a brief wintry mix Monday night... Before
the warm front passes through and forces a changeover to all rain
by Tuesday morning.

As has been pointed out previously... The combination of the above
rainfall and increased snowmelt from higher temperatures and dewpoints
will also likely bring about some renewed ice jam-related flood concerns.

While this warm-up is not quite as dramatic as that of last weekend
and overall rain amounts are also likely to be lower given the fast
passage of the cold front... There will still likely be some potential
for ice jam flooding in the Monday to Tuesday time frame... Which
remains covered in our hazardous weather outlook product for now.

In the wake of the cold front... A westerly flow of colder air will
continue to deepen across the area Tuesday night. Coupled with a
trailing region of wraparound moisture behind the departing low...

this will bring some scattered snow showers to the area... With some
lake orographically-driven snows also likely to set up east of the
lakes as the cold air deepens. These will be best organized east of
lake ontario... While the lake erie activity will likely be hampered
by lingering ice cover. Otherwise... Ongoing cold air advection will
send our temperatures back down into the 20s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night the surface low will eject northeastward
across labrador and out to sea... While expansive surface-based ridging
and drier air ridges eastward into our region. With the building ridge
drying out of our airmass and winds becoming increasingly northwesterly
over time... The lake-driven snows will weaken and sink southward to areas
southeast of the lakes... While elsewhere scattered snow showers should
continue to diminish in coverage. With a much colder airmass in place...

temperatures will be significantly colder than those of previous days...

with highs on Wednesday struggling to make it above the 25-30 range...

and lows Wednesday night ranging from the single digits east of lake
ontario to the teens elsewhere.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
A progressive... Pacific air dominated pattern over the country
during this period will support another significant warming trend.

This will send near normal temperatures on Thursday to levels that
will be some 15 to 20 degrees above normal by Saturday... With
potentially even milder weather possible to close out the weekend.

As is typically the case at this time of year... Such a warm up will
be brought to a rather dramatic end by an impactful storm or frontal
passage. This time around... The pattern changing event will be a
deepening storm system that will pass over the region as we
transition from the weekend into the new work week. More on this
storm in a moment.

As we open this period on Thursday... An expansive area of high
pressure will approach our region from the upper great lakes. While
a wealth of dry air and increasing subsidence will provide fair
weather across the majority of the forecast area... A cold northwest
flow ahead of the system will still generate some nuisance lake snow
showers southeast of lake ontario. Temperatures Thursday will be
similar to those from the day before with highs generally in the
upper 20s in the west and within a few degrees of 20 across the
north country.

The axis of the surface high will cross over our region Thursday
night. This will bring an end to the lake snow showers while also
providing us with the last cold night before the warm up. The
mercury will drop into the single digits east of lake ontario while
mins will be in the teens to near 20 over the western counties.

As the surface high exits to our east across new england on
Friday... Warm advection will begin in earnest as a southerly return
flow will become established. H85 temps moderating to around zero c
will combine with partial sunshine to allow our MAX temps to jump by
at least 10 degrees from those of Thursday. Some sites west of the
finger lakes could even reach 40.

The warming trend will continue Friday night and Saturday as the
southerly flow will intensify ahead of a wavy cold frontal boundary.

This will encourage the mercury to climb well into the 40s on
Saturday... With 50 degree readings not out of the question for parts
of the genesee valley and for some of the valleys of the southern
tier.

Looking ahead outside of the scope of this forecast package... The
frontal boundary is expected to stall over our forecast area late
Sunday Sunday night as a result of an intensifying storm system in
the vcnty of the lower mississippi valley and tennessee valley. Since
our region will still be firmly ensconced within a warm sector... The
approaching storm will only strengthen the southerly flow... Nearly
assuring that the vast majority of the associated precipitation
will be in the form of rain. While the heaviest rainfall should stay
to our south and east... Its not out of the question that this system
could generate an inch or more of rain later Sunday through Sunday
night. Colder air will then pour back into the region in the wake
of the storm system on Monday... Changing the precipitation to snow
showers while also providing us with some gusty winds.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr conditions will continue at the terminals this evening. A cold
front across southern canada will stay nearly stationary tonight.

MVFR CIGS will be possible at kart into Sun morning. Further south,
MVFR CIGS will start to develop after 06z, as a low level stratus
deck begins to increase along an approaching warm frontal boundary.

The stratus deck will move into the region from the south, resulting
in kjhw to go MVFR first then moving north to buf,kiag and kroc sun
morning. CIGS will then become ifr.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday night... Widespread MVFR ceilings persisting
through Sunday. A chance of rain snow late.

Monday and Monday night... MVFR ifr with rain showers developing.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr with rain showers changing to snow showers before
ending... Then areas of lake effect snow also developing east of the
lakes Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
A moderate pressure gradient between an area of low pressure
crossing southern canada and surface high pressure over the
southeast will maintain breezy conditions on the lakes, and the
upper niagara river. A small craft advisory will remain in effect
for the lakes.

High pressure will reach the eastern great lakes region Sunday and
this will relax the winds and allow conditions to drop below
small craft advisory.

Northeasterly winds will re-freshen on Monday, as a large area of
low pressure tracks from the lower missouri valley towards the great
lakes. This will likely generate more small craft advisory
conditions on the western half of lake ontario. This low will then
track across the great lakes on Tuesday, sweeping a cold front
across the lower great lakes late Tuesday into Tuesday night and
bringing a potential for gales on lake ontario behind the front
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Sunday for
loz042>045.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Hsk tma
short term... Jjr
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hsk tma
marine... Hsk tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 19 mi81 min WSW 9.9 G 13 37°F 1016.9 hPa (+2.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 20 mi51 min 37°F 1016.6 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 47 mi51 min WSW 13 G 18 38°F 1015.5 hPa27°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY20 mi27 minW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F28°F76%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW5SW3SW10W14W14W15W11W13
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2 days agoSW12W16W13W14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.