Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday March 21, 2019 7:31 AM EDT (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:12PMMoonset 6:47AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201903210915;;678821 Fzus51 Kbuf 210216 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1016 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-210915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1016 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of rain showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely in the evening, then rain and snow showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 30 knots in the afternoon. Snow showers with rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 6 to 10 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers during the day. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers Sunday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 211114
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
714 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
A complex and slow moving storm system will spread a variety of
weather across the area into Saturday. Rain will fall today, but
as colder air moves in the rain will gradually change to snow
late tonight and on Friday. Several inches of wet snow is
possible, especially over the higher terrain east of i-81 and
the northern finger lakes.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
415 am update...

wave dropping into the great lakes as a surface low develops
along the east coast. Mild air in place will result in some
light rain today as an inverted surface trough moves in from the
west. Updates to the grids for this period was mainly to
increase the coverage and pop as the models so show the
precipitation increasing over time. Temperatures would rise
early, then tend to stabilize or even drop later in the day as
the rain becomes heavier and dynamic cooling begins. Previous
discussion below.

3 pm update...

a mild southwest flow and sunshine has pushed temperatures well
into the 40s and lower 50s this afternoon. Warm temperatures
will continue tonight with lows in the 30s. High clouds on their
way in now across pa. Clouds will thicken and lower tonight so
that by sunrise it will be cloudy with rain moving into nepa and
sullivan county ny. Across the higher terrain the rain could
mix with snow. As temperatures warm into the 40s precipitation
goes to all rain for most of the day into the evening. Maybe the
highest peaks of the western catskills get an inch or two. The
bigger issue will be the rain in nepa and the catskills which
will be around an inch Friday to Friday evening. This will prime
the streams and cause them to rise. Over this length of time
flooding not expected.

All of this precipitation is caused by a digging trough into the
western great lakes. A surface low is ahead of this but a
coastal low lifts north from the carolinas and strengthens. Both
lows combine over nj Thursday night and continues northeast.

These systems move slowly all the while pulling moisture
northwest into our area.

Late Thursday night as the stacked low is to our southeast
colder air comes back in changing the rain to snow. Snowfall
amounts over the higher terrain of up to 4 inches across the
higher terrain of the catskills, upper susquehanna region and
tug hill. With less precip to the far west and south snow
amounts over the terrain less than an inch. This could end up
being a winter weather advisory. Models coming into better
agreement but still varied. A few degrees colder or warmer will
make a huge difference. Lows again in mostly the low and mid
30s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
415 am update...

difficult forecast as the scenario unfolds and develops. Models
seem to have resolved to forecast a band of heavier
precipitation later tonight somewhere over central ny into
nepa. This deformation band will develop strong lift and dynamic
cooling and likely have a band of moderate to heavy snow in the
early morning hours. NAM has the band over extreme nepa into
eastern broome county and the western catskills. Euro shows this
feature a bit further west, more along the i-81 corridor. Even
the GFS indicates the feature, albeit weaker and more diffuse.

In any event, low confidence, mainly sue to spatial differences,
has prompted the extension of the watch to the south.

Then, deepening system drops a significant amount of wrap around
snow later Friday into early Saturday, mainly over the northern
third of the forecast area from cayuga county into oneida and
otsego county. With the cold air advection, snow water ratios
will drop increasing snow amounts. Overall amounts are marginal
for warning criteria, especially considering the time, but it's
still possible to see warning criteria snow in separate area
over different times depending on the feature developing the
developing the precipitation. This uncertainty will keep the
watch up for now and allow the day shift to fine tune the
forecasts as the latest model runs arrive.

Previous forecast discussion continues below.

400 pm update... A complex late winter storm could impact
central ny and parts of NE pa this period. Several pieces of
upper level energy combine to develop a strong coastal low by
early Friday morning. The ECMWF cmc continues to indicate a
stronger, more well developed system compared to the NAM and
gfs. This does appear to be a favorable pattern for potentially
significant snowfall for at least portions of of our cwa. Cips
analog for pattern recognition indicates that the mean snowfall
from the top analog events was around 6-10" north and northeast
of binghamton; especially the higher elevations. The details
remain uncertain with this complex weather system, especially
the thermal profiles. A few degrees colder or warmer will make a
large difference in the ultimate snowfall amounts. Went ahead
and issued a winter storm watch from southern cayuga east to
cortland, chenango, otsego and points north. This is the area
with the highest confidence at this time for significant
snowfall.

Friday: developing surface low pressure will be near long island
daybreak Friday. A deformation band of mixed rain and wet snow will
be lingering over our eastern counties in the morning. With a subtle
dry slot working into the west central portions of the area. By late
afternoon a strong upper level low slides overhead, to near nyc, and
completes the phasing of the low and mid level circulation. The
surface low deepens to around 985mb over southern new england by
around sunset. Strong cold air advection arrives by late afternoon
as the winds shift and increase out of the northwest. Another
deformation zone and wrap around snow develops on a 320 flow, with
some lake enhancement downwind of lake ontario. Temperatures hold
steady or even fall slightly late in the day... In the 30s... Except
lower 40s for the valleys of NE pa.

Friday night: persistent wrap around snow and snow showers continue
downwind of lake ontario as the 700mb and 500 mb low closes off over
southern new england. The steadiest snow will remain along and north
of the ny pa border, with just scattered snow showers across most of
ne pa. 850mb temperatures around -11c will be marginal for
additional lake enhancement. Northwest winds increase between 15-
25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph, especially over the higher
terrain. This will lead to areas of blowing and drifting
snow... Again mainly across our central ny counties. The highest
snow accumulations are expected across the hills north of
binghamton and south of syracuse... Extending into portions of
the catskills, where an upslope component could add to the
snowfall. Lows drop into the upper 10s and lower 20s.

Saturday: lingering snow showers in the morning across central ny,
then much drier air and high pressure approach by afternoon.

Expect decreasing clouds through the day. Still remaining cold
and breezy, with highs in the 30s for central ny, with mid-30s
to lower 40s for NE pa. Winds could gusts as high as 40 mph
through early afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
3 am update...

temperatures will swing greatly during the long term period,
which is not too unusual for late march. Main feature of
interest will be a strong cold front Monday, and chances have
increased for snow or rain changing to snow with its passage.

Saturday night through Sunday evening will be a quiet time, with
the surface high passing well to our south yet at least a dry
flat ridge extending across our region. The lack of cloud cover
Saturday night through Sunday will lead to a wide diurnal range
in temperatures, from lows of lower to mid 20s Saturday night
to highs of upper 40s-mid 50s Sunday. Clouds will then
overspread the area Sunday night, preventing temperatures from
dropping below mid 20s-mid 30s for lows.

Models have come into better agreement on the nature of what
happens Monday. Operational runs of the canadian and ecmwf
models have now joined the GFS in dropping a cold front through
the region, in response to a sharpening upper trough in eastern
canada to the northeast. The GFS has a better-defined wave of
low pressure translating up the front, yet the ecmwf-canadian
also decidedly push that front through Monday with some
precipitation and good jet support forced ascent. Thicknesses
fall Monday, allowing snow north and rain-to-snow transition in
the south. Much too early to judge amounts, but a shot of
wet snow accumulation may occur.

After the frontal passage Monday, cold and dry conditions are
probable for Monday night through Tuesday night, followed by
a warming trend Wednesday-Thursday with continued dry weather.

Aviation 11z Thursday through Monday
Conditions will deteriorate today as one system approaches from
the west and another organizes to our southeast. The two
systems will merge over our area, resulting in the development
of rain and restrictions. There will also be a brief period of
marginal low level wind shear sneaking across kavp-kbgm.

Ceilings will descend into fuel alternate required levels
between 12z and midday for kavp and then kbgm; the remainder of
terminals will take quite a bit longer but will get there
eventually as well. As cooler air wraps into the merging
systems, rain will mix with and or change to snow overnight,
amping the visibility restrictions. Winds will generally be east
or southeast 5-9 knots, though backing and or becoming variable
in evening and then switching northwesterly towards dawn.

Outlook...

Friday... Occasional restrictions in mixed rain-snow showers as
a system continues to impact area.

Friday night through Saturday... Intermittent restrictions from
snow showers, especially the ny terminals. Gusty northwest wind.

Saturday night through Sunday night... MainlyVFR.

Monday... Possible restrictions in snow or rain.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm watch from late tonight through Saturday morning
for paz039-040.

Ny... Winter storm watch from late tonight through Saturday morning
for nyz009-017-018-036-037-044>046-056-057.

Synopsis... Dgm
near term... Dgm mwg tac
short term... Dgm mjm
long term... Mdp
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi37 min SSE 9.9 G 14 43°F 1017.4 hPa23°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi31 min SSE 9.9 G 12 42°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi37 min 42°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi37 minS 610.00 miOvercast41°F27°F57%1018.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi37 minVar 310.00 miOvercast42°F21°F45%1018 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4E3SW10SW9SW8
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65S5S8S9S10S11S11S15S14S11
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1 day agoW4SW3SW3SW4SW7W7W8W7W9N7NW4NE5SE4SE4SE4SE3E4SE3E4E4E3N3CalmE3
2 days agoCalmSW5W7SW7SW11W10W10
G16
W13W12SW7W9W11NW6SW5SW5W8W8W7W7W7W6SW5W5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.