Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:57PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 8:40 AM EDT (12:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:38PMMoonset 6:11AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1031 Pm Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201809250900;;164379 FZUS51 KBUF 250234 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1031 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-250900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 251053
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
653 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will move through the region today
and Wednesday. This frontal system will bring several rounds of
showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with locally heavy
rainfall. High pressure will then build into the region later
this week with the frontal boundary east of the region.

Near term through tonight
400 am update... Main concerns in the near term are focused on
a period of steady rain this morning, and the potential for
locally heavy showers and isolated t'storms this afternoon.

Otherwise, it will be cool and cloudy through the near term,
with gusty south-southeast winds at times.

At this time the potential for flooding issues are low today.

A moderately moist air mass... Pwats around 1.25-1.5"... Lifted
across the boundary should be capable of generating steady
light-moderate rain across the region this morning. There may be some
enhancement to the rainfall rates later this morning with
stronger forced ascent associated with the passage of the upper
wave. However, it doesn't appear at this time that rainfall
rates will be anywhere near recent flooding events. Expecting
around a quarter to a half inch per hour at the highest
rate... And only for brief periods of time.

Even though the total amount of rain expected through this
evening is about 0.60 to 1.20 inches (locally 1.5-2" catskills),
the rainfall rates should be low enough to mitigate any widespread
flooding issues. Localized minor flooding is possible... Especially
in areas where the pre-existing soil conditions are already
very saturated. The heaviest rain amts will likely be in the
higher terrain of the southern tug hill plateau, the poconos,and
the catskills. Much of these areas require at least 1.5-2.5
inches of rain in a 3 hour period to start causing minor flooding
issues... And this seems rather unlikely at this time. With the
clouds and showers around, high temperatures only reach the lower
to mid-60s... Except 65-70 in the northern finger lakes region.

The upper trough is expected to lift out of the area by the late
morning early afternoon time frame, taking the steady rainfall
with it. There will still be a moist air-mass, with potentially
a few breaks in the cloud cover... Enough to allow for weak
elevated instability to develop and trigger scattered showers
and isolated storms during the afternoon... Especially south and
east of i-81 88. Embedded heavy rain showers are possible into
the afternoon hours as well, but shower coverage is forecast to
diminish to just drizzle or isolated showers for tonight.

Overnight lows will dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short term Wednesday through Wednesday night
The next cold front approaches from the west and moves into the
wrn ny during the morning hours... But does not push into central ny
until later in the morning or early afternoon.

A fairly dynamic setup will be present as well similar to last
Friday with 0-6 km bulk shear values from 45-55 knots and a
40-50 knot LLJ ahead of the front. There does look to be
slightly more instability compared to last week... With models
soundings showing 500-700 j kg of tall skinny MLCAPE across our
area in the afternoon.

An end result is the potential for a squall line of thunderstorms
to form ahead of the front in the afternoon and early evening hours
that moves west to east across the region. Fairly strong winds
will not be far above the surface for the storms to draw from if
some instability materializes. Even if the higher winds do not
mix down, winds will still be gusty from the southwest around 15-20
mph with higher gusts. As previously mentioned with the wet
ground even a thunderstorm with 40 mph wind gusts could bring
down a few trees. SPC currently has our entire CWA under a
'slight risk' of severe t'storms Wednesday.

Several limitations are present for strong to severe thunderstorms
though. Cloud cover looks to be abundant though which will
limit the potential for the atmosphere to become unstable during
the day. Another complication is that the front may move
through before the maximum amount of peak heating is realized as
well with a majority of ensembles suggesting that the highest
rain chances are in the late morning to mid afternoon hours.

Will maintain wording in the hwo with this forecast package to
highlight the potential along with the heavy rain discussed below.

Another threat will be for heavy downpours with any storms leading
to localized flooding and or flash flooding given the very low
flash flood guidance and saturated ground. Pw values once again
will be near 2 inches. Total rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday
night looks to range from half an inch to an inch in most spots
with locally higher amounts.

Conditions dry out quickly behind the front Wednesday evening
and overnight. Skies remains mostly cloudy through most of the
night, with gradual clearing expected late. Northwest winds
become light, less than 10 mph. Could see some patchy fog toward
daybreak, but not enough confidence to put in the forecast just
yet.

Highs Wednesday should get into the 70's for most of the area
with cooler low temperatures in the 40's and low 50's behind
the front Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Monday
255 am update...

forecast area finds itself between a broad upper trough over the
western great lakes and a stalled frontal boundary over the
southeast us. Weak surface high pressure will keep us dry
Thursday, but it exits eastward and allows some southern
moisture into the area for a chance of showers Friday,
especially over the southern zones. Cold front moves in from the
west bringing a chance of showers Saturday, followed by high
pressure and dry weather for the end of the period.

Made some minor adjustments to the grids at this update based on
the euro and the latest positions of the fronts and low
pressures. Temps were tweaked based on the new guidance and
surrounding offices. Previous discussion continues below.

Thursday through Friday night:
the cold front will checkup over the mid-atlantic coastline just
close enough to where the cloud cover will be stubborn to leave
areas from binghamton to the south and east through Friday. A weak
wave of low pressure may also move up the east coast with
several ensemble members showing some showers coming back
northwest into the southern and eastern portions of our area.

High pressure building in over the eastern great lakes should
keep the finger lakes and syracuse areas drier with a mix of
sun and clouds. For now, will feature a slight to low chance of
light rain showers south and east of binghamton. Highs look to
be in the 60's with some low 70's Friday where some Sun peaks
out. Lows should generally be in the upper 40's.

Saturday through Monday:
high pressure will continue to build southeast into the region for
most of the weekend with the next front decaying as it moves into
our region from the north Sunday and Monday. The consensus from
the ensembles is to keep the weekend dry for the most part then
to feature a chance of showers on Monday. However, we are still
far enough away for the timing of these features to change
some. Highs should generally be in the 60's to around 70 with
lows around 50.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Rain is now moving across the entire area early this morning.

The steady rain will continue until 15-18z, then transition to
scattered showers this afternoon. Most TAF sites are MVFR or
fuel alternate this morning... And do not expect much change
through the day. Do think it may goVFR for a time later this
afternoon at ksyr, kith and perhaps kelm. After sunset this
evening expect CIGS to lower between 1000-2000 ft agl once again
as ample low level moisture remains. Could even see some patchy
fog and vis reductions. Lower confidence but some guidance
brings the TAF site down to ifr or even lifr after 26 06z.

Winds east southeast at 8-15 knots with gusts around 20-25
knots through early afternoon. Strong south SE winds... 40 to 50
kt... Just above the surface will allow for a period of low
level wind shear at all sites through about 15-18z. Southerly
surface winds decrease to around 10 kts or less by late afternoon
and early evening. Southerly winds then gradually increase
during the late overnight hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday... Restrictions in showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Also patchy fog and lower cigs.

Thursday... Improving toVFR.

Friday... More restrictions possible in showers at kavp and kbgm.

Saturday...VFR conditions expected.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mjm
near term... Mjm
short term... Mjm
long term... Dgm mwg
aviation... Mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi41 min 52°F 1023.7 hPa (-1.0)51°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi41 min SSE 17 G 21 58°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi41 min 58°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi47 minENE 107.00 miLight Rain50°F50°F100%1025.3 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi47 minSE 82.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F48°F89%1024.8 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E8NE9E10SE11SE9E11SE11
G19
S10SE11SE15E8E12E13E11E9E9E7E7E8E10NE9E11E10
1 day agoCalmE3E4E45CalmSE4NE3N4NE5NE3N7NE3CalmE4CalmCalmE4E3E4E6E8E6E8
2 days agoN10N9NW10N8NW7N7W5NW8NW7NW10NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE3E3E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.