Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:31PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 11:13 AM EST (16:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:18AMMoonset 9:29PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 939 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy late this morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Scattered flurries in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:201812122215;;682405 FZUS51 KBUF 121439 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 939 AM EST Wed Dec 12 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-122215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 121502
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1002 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
Some flurries linger this morning, along and southeast of the
finger lakes into far northern pennsylvania. Otherwise it will
be a quiet and cool day. Another disturbance will pass by late
tonight into Thursday with a chance for light snow, especially
twin tiers southward. Milder conditions are expected into the
weekend, with rain likely Friday night.

Near term through Thursday
10 am update...

weak, sheared lake effect snow showers and flurries continue
northeast of lake ontario. The extent of the activity is greater
than anticipated, with flurries making it into wayne county pa.

We increased the coverage and duration of the very light snow
showers over the next 2-3 hours.

The latest grids are published.

315 am update...

out with one weak wave, in with another, both resulting in
light snow accumulations for parts of the area.

Vorticity maximum and pool of moisture aloft on southern end of
an upper trough managed to spread snow showers and flurries
across not just central ny but all the way through to the
poconos during the first half of the night. That feature is
rapidly exiting to the east now, and a transition to primarily
lake effect is occurring. Surface flow is almost westerly, but
the boundary layer mean is more NW or even nnw. The result is a
sheared showery bands of lake effect running from the finger
lakes to cortland-ithaca areas and down to owego-richford-
endicott to even slightly crossing the pa border. While it will
continue through the morning, it will also weaken diminish to
flurries with time. An inch or so of light fluff has likely
occurred for the most impacted locations, perhaps even 2 inches
in higher terrain of southern cayuga-southwest onondaga on down,
but additional amounts will be limited to an inch or less. Brief
surface ridge will actually be fairly quick to move in midday-
early afternoon. This may allow some erosion of the
stratocumulus this afternoon, especially east of i-81, but as is
typical for any weak-advection flow this time of year some
moisture will stay trapped under a subsidence inversion and thus
clouds may be stubborn. Highs will be upper 20s-mid 30s.

Models have trended a bit stronger with the upper trough now
over mn-ia, by pinching off a compact upper low today which
will carry through the western great lakes. Then tonight, it
will weaken yet should still translate directly over our
region. Plenty of dry air in the low levels from gradually
departing surface ridge will prevent the snow from adding up to
much, but at least a fine light snow falling out the mid levels
appears likely late tonight to midday Thursday, especially the
central southern tier-far southern finger lakes ny through much
of northeast pa. In those areas up to an inch could fall,
especially higher terrain of bradford-wyoming-luzerne counties
to poconos which could actually get slightly more than an inch.

Dry low level air will have a progressively bigger impact
further north, lowering chances and amounts to the point that
only a chance of flurries is figured along the ny thruway
corridor. Lows of mid teens to mid 20s for tonight - probably
early before warm air advection and thickening clouds of
incoming system - followed by highs again of upper 20s to mid
30s Thursday. Some partial sunshine may try to sneak in from the
northwest late in the day but generally speaking clouds will
still own the sky for our region.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
Thursday night... As an upper level wave departs stage east
upper level heights rise over the area. Surface high pressure
over new england brings a moist southeast flow into the area.

Model soundings show very shallow moisture with light qpf. Model
consensus would indicate the best chance for light
precipitation would be across northeast pennsylvania and the
western catskills. Will include patchy freezing drizzle drizzle
due to shallow nature of available moisture. Overnight lows
will range in the mid to upper 20s.

Friday... Some lingering patchy freezing drizzle drizzle may
continue into the mid morning hours in the above mentioned area
then dry conditions are expected until later in the afternoon.

System in the gulf states may spread some light rain across
northeast pennsylvania and the southern tier by late day. Highs
will generally range from 40 to 45.

Friday night through Saturday... ECMWF continues to show no
phasing of the northern southern streams and tracks the
vertically stacked system from the gulf states to north carolina
and off the coast. The GFS continues to lift the system farther
north into the mid atlantic region. The GFS is slowly trending
toward the ECMWF solution. Friday night into Saturday morning
will likely be the wettest period with likely categorical pops
for Friday night then likely pops Saturday morning in the
southeast forecast area and just chance elsewhere. By Saturday
afternoon just chance pops for all areas. If the operational
ecmwf is the perfect solution the northern forecast area may
see very little rainfall. Total rainfall may reach around three
quarters of an inch across much of northeast pennsylvania and
the southern catskills with around a quarter of an inch from the
finger lakes to western mohawk valley. Still alot to be
determined with this system but at least the airmass is warm
with just rain expected. Friday night lows will range in the mid
to upper 30s with highs on Saturday in the lower to middle 40s.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
A low confidence forecast as models continue to show
significant differences in the medium range.

Saturday night into Sunday the GFS would indicate a continued
wet period as the upper level low lifts into the mid atlantic
region. The ECMWF is dry with surface high pressure over the
area. Will continue to indicate chance pops for mixed rain snow
showers Saturday night then slight chance for mainly rain
showers on Sunday. Lows Saturday night will range from the upper
20s to mid 30s. Highs on Sunday in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Sunday night Monday... An upper level wave drops through the
region. The GFS is much stronger with this feature than the
ecmwf. Will continue with slight chance chance pops for mainly
snow showers through the period with the best chance occurring
on Monday as the surface front drops through. Airmass behind
this feature is not very cold so any lake response should be
minor. Lows Sunday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs on
Monday will range in the mid to upper 30s.

Tuesday and Wednesday looks dry with models agreeing on high
pressure over the mid atlantic region. Temperatures will be
seasonal.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
Behind a weak wave which passed through overnight, lake effect
flurries will continue for a few hours after 12z especially for
kith-kbgm with some ifr but also ksyr-krme at times. At least
MVFR ceiling restrictions will exist for most other terminals
this morning. Improvement toVFR will generally occur this
afternoon as the lower deck breaks up in favor of a much higher
deck streaming in ahead of the next wave 15-25 kft agl. Late
tonight, another small system will spread light snow and
associated restrictions across at least kelm-kavp and probably
kith-kbgm. Light northwest winds will go variable by late
today, then light southeast by later tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday... Another weak disturbance passes with light snow and
restrictions; best chances kelm-kbgm-kavp-kith.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR.

Friday night through Saturday morning... Rain and likely
restrictions as a system moves through the region.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday... Smaller chance for showers
and associated restrictions. Low confidence.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Djp mdp
short term... Rrm
long term... Rrm
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi62 min ENE 9.9 G 14 29°F 1021 hPa23°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi134 min W 4.1 G 5.1 32°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi62 min 34°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi20 minNNW 47.00 miOvercast29°F24°F82%1020.8 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi20 minNE 710.00 miA Few Clouds30°F19°F66%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW5S7SW8SW7SW9SW6SW10W7W7SW10W8W9W9W5W4W6W5CalmCalmCalmNE5N3N4
1 day ago3NW7NW7W5NW5NW3CalmNW4N3CalmCalmSE4SE3E5E3E4E5SE6SE6S6S7S9SE7S6
2 days agoSW10SW9SW10W9W6NW6CalmCalmCalmSW3W6SW7SW8W8W7W7W7W4NW4CalmCalmNW3NW4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.