Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:17PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 6:55 AM EST (11:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:22AMMoonset 8:00PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 233 Am Cst Tue Nov 21 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
Today..Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming west this morning... Then northwest to 30 kt this afternoon. Slight chance of rain. Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft subsiding to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Slight chance of snow in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..Southwest gales to 35 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Saturday..Northwest gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
LMZ872 Expires:201711211500;;734762 FZUS63 KLOT 210833 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 233 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Deep low pressure of 29.0 inches just north of Lake Superior early this morning...will move to northern Quebec by tonight. A trailing cold front will move across the lake this morning. Broad high pressure of 30.4 inches will build across the central Great Plains tonight and gradually shift to the lower Mississippi Valley through midweek. A trough of low pressure averaging 29.7 inches will move across Ontario and the Great Lakes on Thursday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-211500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 210830
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 am est Tue nov 21 2017
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am est Tue nov 21 2017
a cold front is located across the western great lakes this morning
stretching from the u.P. Of michigan into wisconsin. The front will
push through southwest lower michigan through the course of the day.

Some rain showers will accompany the frontal passage, especially
across southern lower michigan. Cold air will pour into the area
behind the front and touch off some snow showers as early as this
afternoon. Light lake effect snow showers will continue tonight
towards lake michigan with little to no accumulation. A weakening
clipper system may bring a little bit of light snow late Wednesday
night into thanksgiving morning. Temperatures will tumble out of the
40s and into the 30s this afternoon after the front moves through.

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 330 am est Tue nov 21 2017
overall minor precipitation events are expected during the short
term with no major systems. The precipitation events include light
rain ahead of today's front, which may change to a bit of light snow
this afternoon before tapering off. A lake effect snow period from
this evening into Wednesday morning and the chance for some light
snow thanksgiving morning.

As for today's front, models have been consistent in showing light
rain breaking out over southwest lower midday and expanding some
this afternoon over the southern half of the forecast area or along
and south of i-96. Some of the precipitation may mix with and change
over to some light snow as the cold air advection is healthy. The
namnest has temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s in all areas by 22z.

This may be a tad cold but not far off.

Tonight, moisture depth is limited, but bufkit overviews do show
moisture reaching near the 7,000ft mark which is not bad. Expecting
wind parallel snow bands in northwest flow. Given the moisture depth
issues most of the time, flake size will likely be small and
accumulations should be limited to less than an inch at best. The
exception may be down towards van buren county where a long fetch
may allow the les to overperform just a bit. We will be keeping an
eye on radar trends tonight down towards south haven.

A sneaky event appears possible late Wednesday night into
thanksgiving morning with a weakening clipper system. Moisture
increases ahead of the clipper and delta t's will still be cold
enough for lake effect processes to kick off. Would not be surprised
to see some southwest flow lake enhancement occur thanksgiving
morning in the northwest CWA towards ludington, newaygo and baldwin.

Have added pops to the forecast at this point and we will need to
monitor forecast trends. Any accumulations of snow would be light,
but the NAM is kicking out near a tenth of liquid equiv.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 330 am est Tue nov 21 2017
the focus of the long term is a clipper that moves across ontario
Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF and GFS are similar in strength of
the low but the GFS is farther north.

We'll see increasing cloudiness Friday as the clipper moves toward
the upper great lakes. Light rain associated with isentropic lift in
the warm sector looks like it will be north of the cwa. So we're
left with precipitation along the cold front late Friday afternoon
which is supported by low condensation pressure deficits. The better
chance of precipitation will arrive Friday night when the trailing
short wave moves over the cwa. We have likely pops over most of the
cwa as rain. Lingering precipitation behind the wave will mix with
and change to light snow as colder air wraps in behind the system. A
few snow showers may be possible near the lake shore Saturday night
as h8 temps near -12c briefly move across. Moisture depth is shallow
though and accumulations aren't expected.

Friday will be the warmest day as southwest winds push temperatures
into the mid to upper 40s. Then temperatures fall into the 30s for
Sunday and Monday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1144 pm est Mon nov 20 2017
a breezy night is expected both at the sfc and aloft. Llws is
possible. Latest VWP from grr shows 50 kts at 3k ft. A cold front
will move across the TAF sites Tuesday but pcpn is expected to
remain over southeast lwr mi.

Marine
Issued at 330 am est Tue nov 21 2017
gales are still occurring at the marine observation sites along the
lakeshore early this morning, so will continue the gale warning into
the mid morning hours. A small craft advisory is going to be needed
on the back end of this gale to allow the waves to settle down which
is going to take some time. The SCA will likely be needed through
both the remainder of today and tonight and even into Wednesday
morning. Wave models are indicating waves subsiding to below 4 feet
during the late morning hours of Wednesday. It looks like we are
going to need another SCA early thanksgiving morning into
thanksgiving day. It is certainly fall on the great lakes with
plenty of rough weather.

Hydrology
Issued at 1145 am est Mon nov 20 2017
few rivers continue to rise, but rises have slowed, while others
are showing signs of stabilizing. There are small chances for
precipitation Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Amounts, if
measurable, should not have any impact on rivers. Beyond
Wednesday, weather looks relatively quiet.

Despite elevated river levels, additional river flooding is of low
concern. Rivers are likely to recede through the course of the
upcoming week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Gale warning until 10 am est this morning for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Duke
short term... Duke
long term... 04
aviation... 04
hydrology... Jam
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 32 mi66 min WSW 25 G 31 46°F 48°F8 ft1002.6 hPa (+0.0)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 37 mi26 min WSW 31 G 33 46°F 1001.4 hPa38°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi36 min SW 15 G 18 44°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi76 min WSW 9.9 G 15 46°F 1001.4 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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NW22
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N10
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G14
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N25
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NW32
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G34
NW23
G30
NW22
G28
NW24
G29
NW21
G31
NW21
G29

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi61 minSW 24 G 3110.00 miOvercast and Windy47°F36°F66%1001.9 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW12SW14SW17
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1 day agoNW11NW13
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W12W8W11
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W12W12W11
G18
W15
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SW10W12SW13
2 days agoN8NE4NE3N5N9N12N9
G17
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N7N14
G20
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N12N11NW15
G23
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NW12NW7NW15
G22
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G16
NW13
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.