Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:29PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:13 AM EDT (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:42AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 850 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 17 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt, with a temporary shift to northwest possible with Thunderstorms late. Showers and Thunderstorms likely, mainly late. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt veering to north late in the day. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming north 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ872 Expires:201806180930;;703385 FZUS63 KLOT 180150 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 850 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Lake Michigan remains between 30.1 inch high pressure over the mid-Atlantic coast and a 29.7 inch trough extending from Lake Superior into the Central Plains. The trough will shift south across Lake Michigan Monday morning through Monday evening, then stall across central Illinois and Indiana Tuesday through Thursday while weakening to 29.9 inches. During this time, a 30.1 inch ridge will extend from the far northern Great Plains to southeast Ontario. A 29.7 inch low will form over the Plains Thursday and reach the lake late this week. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-180930-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 172322
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
722 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 325 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018
hot and humid conditions will continue late this afternoon and
early evening. It will be hot and humid again Monday over far
southern lower michigan where heat indices will again reach
the 100 degree mark. A cold front moving in from the north will
bring some showers and thunderstorms Monday through Monday night.

Showers and storms will linger Tuesday over far southern lower
michigan.

Short term (this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 325 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018
a heat advisory continues in effect for our entire fcst area until
8 pm this evening. Temps in the lower to middle 90s through the
rest of this afternoon and early evening in conjunction with dew
points in the low to mid 70s will result in heat indices in the
lower 100s.

An isolated shower developed over our far NE fcst area where
mesoscale analysis shows instability is maximized in an area of
weak sfc convergence. However it will continue to drift ene and out
of our area. Additional shower development is unlikely to occur
given a lack of a forcing mechanism for shower or convective
initiation to occur in subsidence under the high amplitude upper
ridge. Isolated showers near to NE of kord will most likely
dissipate before making it into our southern fcst area.

It will remain very warm and humid tonight with mins in the 70s
and dew points mainly in the 70 to 75 degree range. The cold front
approaching from the north very late tonight will result in
development of a few showers and perhaps an isolated storm over
our far northern fcst area after midnight.

The cold front will continue to advance southward across lower
michigan Monday and trigger development of showers and thunderstorms.

The best chance for thunderstorms will come in the afternoon and
evening when there is potential for moderate instability to
develop (sb CAPE values reaching 2-2.5k j kg near to south of
i-96).

However a consensus of short range high res model guidance and
the high res cams are not too bullish on convective development
tomorrow. There are several factors going against potential for
better organized stronger convective development including lack
of favorable upper level dynamics and only around 20-30 kts of
deep layer shear. As such severe wx potential tomorrow is very
low and our area is only in the general thunder SPC day 2 outlook.

It will not be quite as hot tomorrow for much of our fcst area due
to clouds and scattered showers convection along and out ahead of
the front. However given frontal timing we expect areas south of
i-96 to once again have high temps in the lower to perhaps middle
90s with dew points still well into the 70's. As such we will
issue a heat advisory for our southern two tiers of counties for
tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
Monday night in the vicinity of the front.

Overall guidance trends for Tuesday suggest that scattered showers
and thunderstorms will linger over our southern fcst area. The
front will be south of our area by then and extend from west to
east across central southern il in oh. Elevated instability will
still be present over our southern counties Tuesday with h8 LI s
of -1 to -2. In fact some showers and storms should continue to
develop over our southern fcst area through Tuesday night with
elevated instability north of that boundary still present.

Thanks for coord on heat advisory headline decisions dtx iwx.

Long term (Wednesday through Sunday)
issued at 325 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018
temperatures will for the most part be near normal through the
period. Precipitation is still a big question. Thursday into Friday
look like there will be little if any precipitation but a wave on
the front may be far enough north for showers thunderstorms to
impact southwest michigan on Wednesday. Over next weekend, another
slow moving system may bring a considerable amount of rain to the
area but the track and timing for this are an issue.

The main issue is what happens to the system over the southwest
conus this coming week. Most of the models and their ensembles in
one form or another bring the system through the great lakes Friday
into Sunday. Only the canadian model has the northern stream
eastern trough so big and expanded that the systems heads to far
southeast to impact mi. Given that the models typically open these
systems up and weaken them to fast, I am thinking this coming
weekend will be rather wet.

A wave on the front may bring us showers thunderstorms on Wednesday.

This too, depends on our southwest CONUS upper low and how much of
it shears out when.

Overall cooler and wet would be my spin on next week especially late
in the week into the weekend.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 721 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018
vfr conditions expected through the period. Main item of interest
will be a cold front moving south across the state Monday
afternoon. It's possible we could see a few showers storms near
the front after 20z.

Marine
Issued at 325 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018
patchy fog will pose a hazard to mariners through tonight.

Thunderstorms will pose a hazard to mariners very late tonight
through Monday night into Tuesday. Winds and waves will be briefly
higher in and near storms but otherwise winds and waves will
remain below SCA criteria through Monday.

Hydrology
Issued at 1210 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018
recent rain has resulted in a slight rise on a few rivers. With
river levels running near normal, no flooding is expected.

More rain is expected across the area Sunday night through Wednesday
night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop.

Very heavy rainfall will be possible with the storms. This may
produce localized flooding.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for miz037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

Heat advisory from noon to 6 pm edt Monday for miz064>067-
071>074.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Laurens
short term... Laurens
long term... Wdm
aviation... 04
hydrology... 63
marine... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 32 mi83 min SSW 9.7 G 9.7 65°F 59°F1 ft1014 hPa (+1.4)62°F
45161 36 mi33 min SW 12 G 14 1 ft
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 37 mi23 min WSW 16 G 19 69°F 1013.4 hPa67°F
45029 43 mi23 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 68°F1 ft1014.1 hPa65°F
45013 44 mi66 min SSW 9.7 G 14 73°F 54°F1 ft1013.8 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi23 min SSW 9.9 G 11 81°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi33 min SSW 5.1 G 9.9 82°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi18 minSW 1110.00 miFair78°F66°F69%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE6SE6S6SW7S6S5S7S7SW9SW12SW12SW14SW12S15SW11SW9S13S11S12SW15SW11SW13SW11
1 day agoNW19
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W9SW8NW7S6E3SW11N5NE3CalmNW4SW4S4SE6SE5SE6SE5
2 days agoCalmCalmSW7CalmCalmE5E5E8SE7SE5SE7S8CalmE6E11NW7N5E4SE7S7SE3CalmCalmS7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.