Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 7:41PM Sunday September 23, 2018 3:52 PM EDT (19:52 UTC) Moonrise 6:29PMMoonset 4:53AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 856 Am Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest. A few gale force gusts to 35kt possible. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Friday..West winds to 30 kt becoming northwest. Gales to 35 kt possible. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Friday night..North winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast 5 to 10 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ872 Expires:201809192030;;883158 FZUS63 KLOT 191356 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 856 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.1 inches over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes will gradually shift northeast tonight. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop over the Central Plains tonight and then lift northeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday evening. The low will track across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night while dragging a strong cold front across the lake. High pressure of 30.4 inches will spread across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region Saturday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-192030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 231831
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
231 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
latest update...

discussion marine

Synopsis
Issued at 100 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
overall the next week or so will be on the wet side. However
tonight will be mostly clear and cool with lows from the 40s to
near 50. Monday will see clouds move in from the south and highs
in the lower 70s. Then a system tracking north northeast from the
western gulf of mexico will bring locally heavy rain Monday night.

Tuesday will be partly cloudy and warm but then a strong cold
front pushing through the area early Wednesday morning could bring
locally strong thunderstorms and additional heavy rain. Cool and
dry weather will follow for Wednesday. Then an even stronger cold
front will bring showers Thursday and when that front stalls out
just to our south over the weekend we will see overrunning rains
for both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be near normal
over the weekend.

Discussion (this evening through next Sunday)
issued at 232 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
overall I see the next week as a rather stormy period. We will be
on the edge between very cold polar air (mostly staying north of
the canadian border) and subtropical air trapped under the
subtropical high which will remain parked just off shore of the se
conus through this coming weekend. Several shortwaves on the
northern stream will continue to dig south into central and
northern plains while that subtropical high remains just off
shore. Later in the week, the merging of two huge pacific storms
will significantly amplify the upper ridge over western north
america and that will set the stage for a prolonged period of rain
and maybe even some snow later into the weekend into next week.

Of course this far out the timing is hard to pin down but given
all that cold air near us and the gulf being open to bring moist
air north, it is hard to imagine next week will not be very wet.

In the short term we have a subtropical system that was over the
western gulf being brought north on the west side of the
aforementioned subtropical high. That happens while a digging
northern stream wave pushes toward the great lakes. This gives us
to precipitation events. The first is Monday night as the souther
stream system head northeast toward the southern great lakes.

Once again the high resolution models are showing bands of 2 to 4
inches of rain and we have seen all summer long this does mean
bands of heavy rain tomorrow night over our area. It is more a
question of where than if.

Once that system is out of the way the northern stream system digs
into all of the deep moisture that remains behind the subtropical
system. This means strong vertical shear, the jet entrance region
lift and strong cold front. This could be a nighttime severe
event but since it is at night the surface based CAPE is rather
low, so we will have to see how this plays out. If nothing else it
will be a heavy rain event once again.

Then we get a break for 36 hours but another stronger northern
stream system comes into the area for Thursday into Friday. Our
pops are not nearly high enough for this event, we will get
showers from this one too. Over time we will see the models dig
that shortwave more strongly.

Then we wait for the overrunning event that sets up later in the
weekend into the following week. This time there will be enough
cold air that it would not be out of the question part of our cwa
could see some wet snow.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 100 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
mostly clear skies and light winds should prevail into tonight.

Then a system from the western gulf of mexico will be heading in
this direction bringing a considerable amount of moisture with
it. We first get the low clouds before the rain and those low
clouds (MVFR) should move in by early afternoon Monday. The rain
and thunderstorms should hold off until evening.

Marine
Issued at 232 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
more than likely we will need marine headlines in the Wednesday
time frame as the cold air surges in behind that next cold front.

Until then through winds and waves should remain below criteria.

Hydrology
Issued at 956 am edt Sun sep 23 2018
rivers are running around to a little above normal for the time of
year. Levels are steady or slowly falling, and are well below flood
stage. Dry weather is expected into Monday. Under an inch of rain is
possible Monday into Tuesday, with no flooding expected.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
discussion... Wdm
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... 63
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 32 mi63 min E 5.8 G 7.8 61°F 69°F1 ft1021.9 hPa (-1.5)51°F
45161 36 mi53 min W 3.9 G 3.9 62°F 58°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 37 mi33 min W 6 G 7 62°F 1021.3 hPa54°F
45029 43 mi23 min W 5.8 G 7.8 61°F 60°F1 ft1021.4 hPa51°F
45013 44 mi76 min SSE 12 G 12 63°F 66°F1 ft1021.3 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi43 min SE 12 G 13 62°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi73 min SSE 8 G 8.9 64°F 1022.4 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi58 minSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds71°F46°F42%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW8W7W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE4SE4SE4E3E3E3SE5SE54SE54E6SE4
1 day agoW18
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N10N11N9N9N8N5N5NE7SE5E9E7NE9E10NE6CalmCalm
2 days agoE6SE7E7E8E8SE9SE10S11
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SW15W15
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----W15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.