Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 1:21 PM   Moonset 2:30 AM

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LMZ872 Expires:202405170315;;322705 Fzus63 Kmkx 161900 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 200 pm cdt Thu may 16 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
low pressure of 29.6 inches will lift north of lake superior and dissipate through Friday. It will drag and occluded front over the lake this evening, bringing scattered shower and Thunderstorm activity. Modestly breezy southerly winds this afternoon will ease and become southwesterly overnight and then light and variable by dawn on Friday. Areas of marine dense fog may develop overnight, then linger into the post dawn hours on Friday before dissipating.
light and variable winds will then persist through Friday as a broad area of high pressure settles over the lake. Light southerly winds will then return Saturday.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-170315- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 200 pm cdt Thu may 16 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Friday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt veering to northeast 10 to 15 kt. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Waves 1 ft or less. Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming north 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sunday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt veering to southeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 162349 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 749 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms tonight/early Friday

- Dry and Mild Weekend

- Active Weather to Start the Work-Week

DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

- Scattered showers and storms tonight/early Friday

A shortwave and accompanying sfc frontal boundary track slowly east through the region tonight and Friday morning, but are generally weakening as they do so. Instability isn't the greatest either especially since these features come through mostly during the diurnal minimum.

Initially this evening scattered showers and storms will be associated with the incoming warm front and higher dew points, then overnight will be linked more to the nearing WI shortwave and cold/occluded front. HRRR guidance suggests best coverage of rain will be during the overnight period especially east of Hwy 131.

Will carry some lingering low (20-30 pct) pops Friday mainly near/east of U.S. 127 and near/south of I-94 since the sfc front stalls out and there is still some lingering sfc instability (SBCapes 500-1000 J/KG). Otherwise decreasing clouds and a warm Friday expected with highs in the upper 70s. May have to consider a risk of patchy fog Friday night in light wind/clear sky regime.

- Dry and Mild Weekend

High pressure moves into the region resulting in dry weather this weekend. An 850mb thermal ridge peaking at +12 to +14C moves overhead Saturday and Sunday resulting in high temperatures into the 80s with plenty of sunshine.

- Active Weather to Start the Work-Week

A deepening longwave trough will eject out of the Rockies at the start of the work week sending a series of shortwaves through the Great Lakes Region. This will result in an active weather pattern through the first half of the week with showers and storms possible.

The first round of storms will move through Monday evening as a front sweeps through the area. Instability looks sufficient ahead of the front to support some showers and storms Monday evening, but the better chance appears to be Tuesday afternoon and evening. As a more potent shortwave moves overhead, a surface low will track through WI into the UP while a trailing cold front sweeps through the state.
Instability will build throughout the day Tuesday ahead of the front while a 40 to 50 knot Low Level Jet noses into Michigan during the evening. Model guidance has yet to come into good agreement therefore confidence remains low, but Tuesday may be a day to monitor the the potential for strong to severe storms in the area.

Temperatures will drop closer to normal (normal highs are around 70)
Wednesday and Thursday following the passage of the front.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 749 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact the terminals this evening with brief drops in visibilities to MVFR or lower possible in any heavier showers/thunderstorms. Cigs and visbys drop to MVFR/IFR areawide after 07z with restrictions continuing into Friday morning as winds calm overnight. MKG has the potential to reach LIFR at times near daybreak due to influence from the lake. Conditions improve over the course of mid to late Friday morning with conditions reaching VFR early Friday afternoon. Southerly winds of 5-10 knots tonight become light overnight and become westerly at 5-10 knots Friday.

MARINE
Issued at 328 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Fairly high confidence in relatively light winds/low waves through the weekend with no Small Craft Advisories anticipated.
However we may be dealing with areas/periods of marine fog over the next several days as higher dew points in the mid to upr 50s arrive and stick around.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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