Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Green, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:21PM Monday May 20, 2019 4:19 PM CDT (21:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 6:00AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Green, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.14, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 201938
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
238 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019

Discussion
Tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

Any clearing of the lower CU stratus will be short lived as high
clouds will be spreading in quickly from the southwest. Expect dry
conditions through the night with another chilly night in the
lower to mid 40s.

Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The suite of model guidance is quite varied in handling the
convection lifting northeast out of kansas missouri and into the
western great lakes. The convection to the south will weaken, but
it will be supported by a decent area of warm air advection and
mid level energy. However, it will be swinging well away from the
parent low and there will be an increasing dry easterly low level
flow that will work to erode the rain is it lifts into wisconsin.

Some of the model guidance keeps southern wisconsin dry as it
wipes this rain out over northern illinois. Models, like the nam,
are more bullish and bring a decent amount of rain up into the
area. The NAM looks way overdone. Something along the lines of the
gfs and ECMWF look far more reasonable. Will carry a chance for
rain, but no thunder. The west has a better chance for seeing rain
vs the southeast.

Tuesday night - confidence... Medium
the low level ese dry feed turns decidedly south in the evening
which results in appreciable thermal moisture advection. This
evolves ahead of the low that is proggd to be lifting north
through the plains. Several hundred j kg of elevated CAPE in place
so the thunder mention looks good. There will be a 500 millibar
vort MAX that pivots northeast on the eastern periphery of the
main 500 energy well off to our west. Will have definite pops as
confidence high that rain will be pretty widespread.

Wednesday - confidence... Medium
thermal ridging builds in briefly with the main advective forcing
on the wane. Influence of the plains 500 millibar low lifts to our
north bringing a more broad southwest anticyclonic flow for us here.

Winds may gust up there pretty good within the windy, warm dry slot
portion of the system. Models are showing an 850 wind MAX anywhere
from 30-45 knots during the afternoon evening. However some
disagreement on the pressure pattern and degree of mixing. Should
warm nicely with clearing and any mixing with lingering influence
of thermal ridge axis. Should see temps warm well into the 70s.

Wednesday night and Thursday - confidence... Medium
models in some disagreement whether showers clip our area along
ne-sw oriented frontal boundary. The GFS is a compromise between
the more robust ECMWF and benign gem. So will carry the blended
pops for Wednesday night.

Thursday night through Friday night - confidence... Medium
things turn unsettled again as the ridge axis shifts east and a
return flow sets up. For Thursday night the main forcing will be
driven by thermal moist advection with a hint of a wave trying to
move through the mid level ridge axis. Better dynamics and lower
level forcing with frontal interactions arriving for Friday into
Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday - confidence... Medium
the overall model consensus is to send this boundary south of wi
with the focus shifting to our south as well. The gem is an
outlier on keeping things unsettled. But for now some suggestion
of a surface high working in that would suppress this front to the
south. For now will need to at least keep some small pops in the
far south due to anticipated frontal proximity and slightly
quicker return flow from GFS which brings precip back for Sunday,
esp into southwest cwa.

Sunday night and Monday - confidence... Low to medium
the unsettled pattern looks like it will return as yet another
system approaches. A frontal boundary to our south will focus
activity that could lift up into SRN wi.

Aviation(21z tafs) Look forVFR conditions through the TAF period.

We should see some clearing of the 4-6kft cloud deck this evening,
but more mid and high level clouds will be spreading in from the
south through the night. Look for light winds to turn northeast to
east on Tuesday and become rather strong and gusty, especially
over south central wisconsin... Including kmsn. We could see some
light rain spread across southern wisconsin during the morning and
early afternoon. No thunder is expected.

Marine High pressure will push across the region tonight and Tuesday,
slipping east by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, strong low pressure will
be lifting north through the central plains. Expect light winds tonight.

Winds will be northeast to east on Tuesday, becoming more easterly
Tuesday night into Wednesday and turning rather strong and gusty. Winds
will become southwest by Wednesday night and diminish as high pressure
builds back across the area. Winds and waves will likely result in
a small craft advisory for the nearshore waters Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Tonight Tuesday and aviation marine... Davis
Tuesday night through Monday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lone Rock Tri-County Regional Airport, WI11 mi23 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F39°F48%1019.3 hPa
Iowa County Airport, WI21 mi24 minNE 610.00 miOvercast57°F39°F51%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from LNR (wind in knots)
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last 24hrW17
G26
W14
G28
W12
G21
W13W13NW9NW11W12W11NW7NW10W9NW8NW9NW10N11NW8NW13
G18
N9--N6N5E54
1 day agoE4E6NE5NE8NE9NE7E15
G20
NE14
G22
E12E13E13
G21
E10E12E10E6E10E9E7E8SW11
G22
SW11
G21
W14
G24
W19
G27
W18
G27
2 days agoE9E9E7E12E12E12E16E12E9E8E11E7E9E8E9E11E15E8E13
G18
E10E13E8NE5E5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.