Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manchester, VT
May 2, 2024 10:26 AM EDT (14:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 3:07 AM Moonset 1:17 PM |
Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 021044 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 644 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Outside of isolated showers north and east of Albany tonight due to a passing disturbance, primarily dry conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the work week. In fact, precipitation chances don't increase again until Saturday afternoon into Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Dry weather will then return for the beginning of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Update
As of 6:45 AM EDT...Earlier showers have mainly dissipated in our CWA with the surface low located near Saranac Lake. Therefore, PoPs were removed from the forecast this morning. The trailing cold front associated with the surface low is now located in the western Mohawk Valley and western ADKs and should continue to track eastwards through the region this morning. Low stratus has expanded from the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England all the way up the Hudson Valley with relatively clear conditions for the rest of the region. Low Stratus should dissipate by around 15z with partly to mostly clear skies from mid to late morning through the afternoon. Made some adjustments to sky grids to better fit current satellite trends, and made some adjustments to temperatures to bump them up a couple degrees where there is more cloud cover and lower temps a couple degrees where skies remained clear. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with more details below...
Previous
We are seeing low stratus expanding north and westwards from the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England with low-level southeast flow leading to moisture becoming trapped beneath a thermal inversion. These low clouds should continue expanding north and westwards through around daybreak before mixing out later this morning with daytime heating.
Temperatures range from mid 40s to around 60 at this time. Areas that remain cloud free will likely see temperatures drop a few more degrees, while cloudy areas can expect near steady temperatures through sunrise. Some patchy fog is possible for the more sheltered areas that remain clear through the next few hours.
This morning, the cold front associated with the surface low tracking to our north will track through the region from northwest to southeast. This to the Capital District by around 15z, exiting into western New England late this morning. Behind this front, we should see a deeply mixed boundary layer today.
Combined with partly to mostly sunny skies, this should help temperatures rise well into the 70s for many valley locations and into the upper 60s even for the high terrain. With most areas still pre-greenup, we went a few to several degrees above NBM/MOS guidance for daytime highs today. Most of today should be dry with the surface low tracking off to our north/east, especially after the cold front departs this morning.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Tonight, an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern Great Lakes region. High pressure in eastern Canada downstream of the upper ridge will build into our region from the north. The large-scale subsidence will keep our region dry tonight. There may be a few clouds around and winds won't go completely calm tonight. While conditions are not ideal for radiative cooling, with a dry airmass in place we should still see overnight lows mainly in the 40s, although a couple of the normally colder areas in the ADKs or southern VT may see temperatures briefly dip into the upper 30s.
Friday, the upper ridge axis shifts over western NY with the surface high sliding off to our northeast. We will be caught between an unusually warm airmass under the ridge to our west and a cooler maritime airmass to our east due to low-level east/southeast flow around the periphery of the surface high.
Temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s in the Mohawk and upper Hudson Valleys, while the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England will likely see highs in the 60s with some 50s in the higher elevations. The upper ridge axis moves overhead Friday night, with the surface high remaining to our east. Lows will be a few degrees warmer as there will be a few more clouds around compared to the previous night. We should remain dry through Friday night with the upper ridge nearby.
Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday starts off dry, but an occluded front will approach from the west later in the day, bringing with it a chance for some showers. The best chance for showers Saturday afternoon is for areas west of I-87. Western New England will see highs similar to Friday. Further west, it will likely be a few degrees cooler than Friday with more clouds around. Chances for showers increase Saturday night across the region, although there is still some uncertainty regarding exactly how quickly the front progresses eastwards. QPF generally looks to remain on the light side through 12z Sunday.
Lows will be mainly in the 40s to 50s with cloudy skies.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Sunday looks to be a rather cool and damp day, as a surface front gradually moves eastward across the region. At this time it appears showers will be prevalent through the day, as the front encounters ridging along the New England coast which will slow its eastward progress. With plenty of clouds/showers around and a cool SE flow, highs will mainly be in the 50s. Showers will taper off from west to east Sun night, as the surface front and a short wave trough aloft move through.
Surface high pressure is then expected to build in from the north/west on Mon, providing dry conditions and likely abundant sunshine. The air mass will be moderating fairly quickly, so with NW flow and good mixing highs should reach the lower/mid 70s in most lower elevations. Tranquil/seasonable conditions in store for Mon night with high pressure overhead. The high will gradually drift east towards the New England coast on Tue, with continued dry weather and warming aloft. NAEFS indicating 850 mb temperature anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV, resulting in highs around 10 degrees above normal.
The next chance of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms, arrives Tue night into Wed, as a warm front approaches from the south/west and eventually moves into our area. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the timing of clouds/showers and also the northward progress/extent of the warm front. At this time temperatures are expected to remain above normal, but with lower confidence.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12z Friday...A cold front will push southeastward across the TAF sites by late this morning. Until then, low level stratus clouds at borderline MVFR/IFR levels will persist at all sites until around 14z. Low level clouds will scour out once the cold front pushes through later this morning with VFR conditions returning.
VFR should then prevail through most of the rest of the TAF period, although will have to watch for possible low stratus clouds developing again after 06z Friday. Confidence is lower though, as the low level flow will be more NE instead of SE. Will mention BKN cigs in MVFR range for now until confidence increases.
Winds will be mainly southerly around 6-12 kt with some gusts near 20 kt at KALB through the mid morning hours. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the cold front by late this morning, with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts around 20-25 kt developing. Winds will decrease tonight, becoming variable at less than 5 kt.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
Today, RH values look to drop to 30 to 40% across portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and western CT. Northwesterly wind gusts will be around 15 kt in the Mid Hudson Valley and 15-20 kt in western CT. Further north from the Mohawk Valley through the Capital District and into the Berkshires, northwest winds could gust up to around 25 kt, although RH values in these areas should remain above 40%. With the lack of overlap between the strongest winds and lowest RH values combined with the fact that most of these areas saw a quarter to a half inch of rain over the past 48 hours, we did not consider special weather statements for elevated fire weather concerns today.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 644 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Outside of isolated showers north and east of Albany tonight due to a passing disturbance, primarily dry conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the work week. In fact, precipitation chances don't increase again until Saturday afternoon into Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Dry weather will then return for the beginning of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Update
As of 6:45 AM EDT...Earlier showers have mainly dissipated in our CWA with the surface low located near Saranac Lake. Therefore, PoPs were removed from the forecast this morning. The trailing cold front associated with the surface low is now located in the western Mohawk Valley and western ADKs and should continue to track eastwards through the region this morning. Low stratus has expanded from the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England all the way up the Hudson Valley with relatively clear conditions for the rest of the region. Low Stratus should dissipate by around 15z with partly to mostly clear skies from mid to late morning through the afternoon. Made some adjustments to sky grids to better fit current satellite trends, and made some adjustments to temperatures to bump them up a couple degrees where there is more cloud cover and lower temps a couple degrees where skies remained clear. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track with more details below...
Previous
We are seeing low stratus expanding north and westwards from the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England with low-level southeast flow leading to moisture becoming trapped beneath a thermal inversion. These low clouds should continue expanding north and westwards through around daybreak before mixing out later this morning with daytime heating.
Temperatures range from mid 40s to around 60 at this time. Areas that remain cloud free will likely see temperatures drop a few more degrees, while cloudy areas can expect near steady temperatures through sunrise. Some patchy fog is possible for the more sheltered areas that remain clear through the next few hours.
This morning, the cold front associated with the surface low tracking to our north will track through the region from northwest to southeast. This to the Capital District by around 15z, exiting into western New England late this morning. Behind this front, we should see a deeply mixed boundary layer today.
Combined with partly to mostly sunny skies, this should help temperatures rise well into the 70s for many valley locations and into the upper 60s even for the high terrain. With most areas still pre-greenup, we went a few to several degrees above NBM/MOS guidance for daytime highs today. Most of today should be dry with the surface low tracking off to our north/east, especially after the cold front departs this morning.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Tonight, an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern Great Lakes region. High pressure in eastern Canada downstream of the upper ridge will build into our region from the north. The large-scale subsidence will keep our region dry tonight. There may be a few clouds around and winds won't go completely calm tonight. While conditions are not ideal for radiative cooling, with a dry airmass in place we should still see overnight lows mainly in the 40s, although a couple of the normally colder areas in the ADKs or southern VT may see temperatures briefly dip into the upper 30s.
Friday, the upper ridge axis shifts over western NY with the surface high sliding off to our northeast. We will be caught between an unusually warm airmass under the ridge to our west and a cooler maritime airmass to our east due to low-level east/southeast flow around the periphery of the surface high.
Temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s in the Mohawk and upper Hudson Valleys, while the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England will likely see highs in the 60s with some 50s in the higher elevations. The upper ridge axis moves overhead Friday night, with the surface high remaining to our east. Lows will be a few degrees warmer as there will be a few more clouds around compared to the previous night. We should remain dry through Friday night with the upper ridge nearby.
Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday starts off dry, but an occluded front will approach from the west later in the day, bringing with it a chance for some showers. The best chance for showers Saturday afternoon is for areas west of I-87. Western New England will see highs similar to Friday. Further west, it will likely be a few degrees cooler than Friday with more clouds around. Chances for showers increase Saturday night across the region, although there is still some uncertainty regarding exactly how quickly the front progresses eastwards. QPF generally looks to remain on the light side through 12z Sunday.
Lows will be mainly in the 40s to 50s with cloudy skies.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Sunday looks to be a rather cool and damp day, as a surface front gradually moves eastward across the region. At this time it appears showers will be prevalent through the day, as the front encounters ridging along the New England coast which will slow its eastward progress. With plenty of clouds/showers around and a cool SE flow, highs will mainly be in the 50s. Showers will taper off from west to east Sun night, as the surface front and a short wave trough aloft move through.
Surface high pressure is then expected to build in from the north/west on Mon, providing dry conditions and likely abundant sunshine. The air mass will be moderating fairly quickly, so with NW flow and good mixing highs should reach the lower/mid 70s in most lower elevations. Tranquil/seasonable conditions in store for Mon night with high pressure overhead. The high will gradually drift east towards the New England coast on Tue, with continued dry weather and warming aloft. NAEFS indicating 850 mb temperature anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV, resulting in highs around 10 degrees above normal.
The next chance of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms, arrives Tue night into Wed, as a warm front approaches from the south/west and eventually moves into our area. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the timing of clouds/showers and also the northward progress/extent of the warm front. At this time temperatures are expected to remain above normal, but with lower confidence.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12z Friday...A cold front will push southeastward across the TAF sites by late this morning. Until then, low level stratus clouds at borderline MVFR/IFR levels will persist at all sites until around 14z. Low level clouds will scour out once the cold front pushes through later this morning with VFR conditions returning.
VFR should then prevail through most of the rest of the TAF period, although will have to watch for possible low stratus clouds developing again after 06z Friday. Confidence is lower though, as the low level flow will be more NE instead of SE. Will mention BKN cigs in MVFR range for now until confidence increases.
Winds will be mainly southerly around 6-12 kt with some gusts near 20 kt at KALB through the mid morning hours. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the cold front by late this morning, with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts around 20-25 kt developing. Winds will decrease tonight, becoming variable at less than 5 kt.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
Today, RH values look to drop to 30 to 40% across portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and western CT. Northwesterly wind gusts will be around 15 kt in the Mid Hudson Valley and 15-20 kt in western CT. Further north from the Mohawk Valley through the Capital District and into the Berkshires, northwest winds could gust up to around 25 kt, although RH values in these areas should remain above 40%. With the lack of overlap between the strongest winds and lowest RH values combined with the fact that most of these areas saw a quarter to a half inch of rain over the past 48 hours, we did not consider special weather statements for elevated fire weather concerns today.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY | 91 mi | 56 min | SSW 1 | 62°F | 29.92 | 54°F |
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDH WILLIAM H MORSE STATE,VT | 21 sm | 32 min | W 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 54°F | 64% | 29.91 |
Troy
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:11 AM EDT 4.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT 0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:45 PM EDT 5.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:21 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:11 AM EDT 4.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT 0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:45 PM EDT 5.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:21 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.6 |
| 1 am |
| 4.4 |
| 2 am |
| 3.7 |
| 3 am |
| 2.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 3.7 |
| 11 am |
| 4.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 5.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.7 |
Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT 4.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:55 AM EDT 0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:37 PM EDT 5.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:21 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:34 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT 4.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:55 AM EDT 0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:37 PM EDT 5.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:21 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:34 PM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.6 |
| 1 am |
| 4.3 |
| 2 am |
| 3.6 |
| 3 am |
| 2.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.6 |
| 10 am |
| 3.9 |
| 11 am |
| 4.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 5.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.8 |
Albany, NY,
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