Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:43PM Saturday February 23, 2019 10:07 AM EST (15:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:45PMMoonset 9:18AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 847 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.storm warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
This afternoon..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers, snow and sleet in the evening, then rain showers with a chance of freezing rain overnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 45 knot gales in the afternoon. Rain showers.
Sunday night..Southwest storms to 50 knots becoming west and diminishing to 45 knot gales overnight. Lake effect rain showers with lake effect snow likely in the evening, then lake effect snow overnight.
Monday..West gales to 40 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LOZ045 Expires:201902232230;;386074 FZUS51 KBUF 231347 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 847 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-232230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newport, NY
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location: 43.17, -75     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 231428
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
928 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
As high pressure slides across the region today, a
developing storm will bring a wintry mixture to most of the region
tonight. This wintry mixture transitions to all rain on Sunday as
warmer air advances northward. Then a strong cold front along with
a strengthening storm north of the great lakes region will usher in
colder temperatures and powerful winds across the region Sunday
into Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 915 am est, high clouds will continue to stream across the
region today ahead of the next storm system taking shape in the
central plains. This should allow for some peeks of sunshine
through the high clouds this morning as temperatures warm into
the upper 30s to lower 40s by this afternoon. So have freshened
up the hourly temps to reflect recent obs with the majority of
the forecast on track for today.

Prev disc...

as of 630 am est... Enhanced nighttime GOES 16 microphysics
imagery continues to reveal a couple layers of clouds across
the region. The persistent stratus deck across portions of the
dacks and western mohawk valley is showing signs of moving
toward the north. This deck was below the subsidence inversion
seen in the hrrr rap forecast bufkit soundings this early
morning. By later this morning, enough mixing should commence
and allow for additional breaks in the overcast to occur across
these areas. Elsewhere, canopy of ci cs continue to stream
across the sky from west to east as southern plains system takes
shape. So as 1034mb surface high transverses the region, should
be a tranquil and seasonable start to the weekend as we climb
to around 40f for valley locations and 30s elsewhere under
partly-mostly sunny conditions.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Winter weather advisory for most of the region tonight...

high wind watch expanded to include most of the region...

as has been well discussed in previous afd's, a potent storm
will unfold and develop from the southern plains and quickly
track across the heart of the great lakes region. This
meteorological bomb will allow for downstream moisture transport
and isentropic lift to overspread all of eastern ny and western
ne tonight. Per thermal profiles and still some residual low
level ageostrophic flow from the north, seems our region will be
under the threat for a wintry mixture to evolve from southwest
to northeast tonight. As convection upstream is expected to be
quite robust (see SWODY1 for the moderate risk and slight risk
areas upstream), transport moisture disruption is possible. Href
depicts this notion as lighter QPF is expected across most of
the region. Exception to this will be across the dacks into the
southern greens were favorable upslope conditions are expected
with a bit more favorable QPF values. Regardless, thermal
profiles suggest the onset may start out as some light snow then
transition to periods of sleet and freezing rain. Per the href
ptypes, seems the higher terrain will be the most susceptible
for accumulation ip fzra and into the lake george and northern
saratoga region. Per coordination from wwd and surrounding
offices, snow accumulations of around 1 inch with up to one
tenth of an inch of ice. So difficult travel conditions with
winter precipitation tonight, especially on untreated surfaces.

Overnight lows with wet bulb processes would suggest lower 30s
for valley locations to mid-upr 20s elsewhere.

Into Sunday, strengthening southerly low level jet magnitudes
will allow for the thermal profiles to moderate above freezing
which will reduce ip fzra through the morning hours. Then
periods of rain and rain showers are expected until a dry slot
approaches during the afternoon hours. So pockets of drizzle as
well are expected as there could be a period of dry weather,
especially to the south of albany. MOS guidance for highs vary
quite a bit as the mav is quite a bit milder than the met. The
ecmwf MOS appears to be a nice compromise with highs mainly in
the 40s cwa-wide.

As great lakes low deepens further toward 970mb, potent cold
front crosses the region by early Sunday evening. The best
isallobaric rise occur to the north of the region, however,
gradient and wind magnitudes remain quite high across the
region. Per bufkit momentum transfer, 40-60 kts wind gust
potential along with mesoscale effects down the mohawk valley
are enough for us to extend the high wind watch for most of the
region. Cold advection will be strong as h850 temperatures go
from +2c to +4c down to -12c to -14c by 12z Monday. So the
transition to rain snow showers to all snow showers are
expected. Additional light accumulations of snow are possible
across the higher terrain, especially into the dacks where some
blowing of the snow is expected. Overnight lows mainly into the
20s with teens into the dacks as wind chills drop back through
the teens and single digits.

Monday, blustery... Gusty... Potentially damaging winds will
impact the region. In addition, lake effect snow will be ongoing
downwind of lake ontario where portions of the western dacks
and mohawk valley may experience additional accumulating light
snowfall. What does fall will likely be hard to measure with the
strong winds with blowing and drifting of the snow. As this
time, per the nam3km, seems the band(s) of snow will be drifting
southward through the afternoon hours as boundary layer flow
becomes more northwest behind a short wave passing through per
ncep model suite consensus. High temperatures Monday will range
from the lower 20s across the dacks to lower 30s for the hudson
river valley locations and NW ct.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Behind the departing storm system, strong cold advection will be
ongoing for Monday night through Tuesday. With much colder air
working its way into the region, a band of lake effect snow should
be ongoing off lake ontario. With the northwest flow in place, the
core of this band will be impacting central new york, but some snow
showers should make it as far east as parts of the western and
central mohawk valley, schoharie county and the eastern catskills.

Some accumulation is possible for these areas for Monday night into
Tuesday, but amounts should be fairly light.

Outside of the lake effect, it will partly to mostly cloudy and
colder. Lows will be in the single digits and teens and highs on
Tuesday will be in the teens and 20s. With the decent pressure
gradient still in place and plenty of mixing due to the colder temps
aloft, it will continue to be rather breezy. Some gusts over 40 mph
will still be possible for Monday evening, but should diminish
somewhat for later Monday night into Tuesday. Still, gusts over 25
mph will be possible, especially for areas of channeled flow and the
higher terrain.

The lake effect should diminish by Tuesday night, as a high pressure
area moving across the area lowers inversion heights. With clearing
skies and cold temps aloft (850 hpa temps as cold as -20 to -25 c),
it should be a cold night, with lows ranging from 5 below over the
adirondacks to the low teens in the mid hudson valley.

Next chance for some snow showers looks to be Wed into Wed night,
although latest model runs have been backing off this potential
somewhat. Northern stream shortwave looks to move from the great
lakes towards the northeastern us. However, moisture will be fairly
limited with the fast moving system and the latest ECMWF and many
members of the GEFS are now showing little snowfall. Will continue
slight chc and chc pops for snow showers, but these may be fairly
scattered in nature and may not add up to a whole lot based off the
latest guidance. Wpc still shows northern and higher terrain areas
with a 10% to 30% chance of 0.25" of liquid equivalent, which is
probably still fair for now. Highs will continue to below normal in
the teens and 20s.

Behind this system, another high pressure area will keep dry, quiet
and chilly weather in place for Thursday with a partly sunny sky.

Highs look to reach the low 20s to mid 30s, with the mildest temps
in southeastern areas.

As of right now, it also looks to remain dry for Thursday night into
Friday, although the next storm could approach as early as Friday
night. Models are still all over the place with the track and
evolution of this system, but will go with chc pops for snow and
rain for Fri night into the weekend with temps generally near normal
levels.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr flying conditions are expected to continue through the day
today. Based off the latest IR satellite imagery, skies should be
bkn-ovc with thin high clouds in place through the entire day around
20-25 kft. Wind direction will be variable, but will generally
trend from the n-nw towards the s-se by later in the day.

Clouds will lower and thicken this evening as the next storm system
starts to approach. Ceilings will become overcast around 12 kft by
later this evening with a light southeast wind. Some light precip
in the form of a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will arrive
around midnight from south to north. Flying conditions will
initially lower to MVFR for both vsbys CIGS once precip begins.

Towards daybreak, flying conditions will be lowering towards ifr,
although p-type will generally be rain (best chance of some
lingering mix will be for kpsf kgfl). Winds will continue to be
light from a s-se direction, although 2 kft winds will be increasing
to around 30-40 kts from the SE by Sunday morning, so some llws may
become an issue.

Outlook...

Sunday night: high operational impact. Very windy. Chance of
shra... Shsn.

Monday: high operational impact. Very windy.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Windy.

Tuesday: low operational impact. Breezy. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Wednesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Hydrology
No hydrological impacts are expected today. Another period of
wintry mixed precipitation is expected tonight before changing
to all rain on Sunday late morning into the early afternoon.

Rainfall is expected to continue through the day Sunday, with
total QPF amounts generally between half of an inch up to an
inch with localized higher amounts.

The rainfall, combined with warmer temperatures, will promote
snowmelt and some minor rises on area rivers. The latest mmefs
this morning continues to show no flooding at this time but
will continue to monitor.

Colder air moves back into the region late Sunday into Sunday
night with lake effect snowfall the main precipitation type into
Monday. Cold and mainly dry weather is expected for Tuesday, and
some light snow or snow showers for the mid week. Flows should
lower quickly, and colder than normal temps are expected for the
mid to later portion of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 7 am est
Sunday for ctz001.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 7 am est
Sunday for nyz032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063-064-
082>084.

High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
nyz032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063-082>084.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 7 am est
Sunday for maz001-025.

High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 7 am est
Sunday for vtz013>015.

High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Bgm
near term... Bgm jlv
short term... Bgm
long term... Frugis
aviation... Frugis
hydrology... Bgm wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 83 mi37 min SSE 6 G 9.9 30°F 1030.3 hPa19°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 98 mi97 min SW 1 27°F 1033 hPa20°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY22 mi74 minSE 510.00 miFair29°F19°F66%1031.6 hPa

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W6NW7NW6W7W9NW14NW11NW6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmE5SE5
1 day agoW11W11W15W11
G17
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2 days ago--E6SE8E8E8E8E10SE11E11E12E13E11E11SE10SE11SE7SE6E8E7E6CalmNW3NW5W11

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:11 AM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EST     5.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:36 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:12 PM EST     5.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.2-0.4-01.334.25.15.453.92.81.80.90.1-012.63.94.75.24.942.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:01 AM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM EST     5.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:26 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:04 PM EST     5.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.1-0.40.11.63.24.45.25.44.93.72.61.70.800.11.22.844.85.24.83.82.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.