Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sylvan Beach, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:26PM Sunday March 26, 2017 8:44 PM EDT (00:44 UTC) Moonrise 5:17AMMoonset 4:52PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 440 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Occasional showers from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Occasional rain showers in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Occasional showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:201703270300;;123146 FZUS51 KBUF 262040 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 440 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ044-270300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sylvan Beach, NY
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location: 43.17, -75.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 261939
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
339 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system moving through the great lakes will push
rain back into the area overnight and early on Monday. A few
patches of freezing rain are possible in the catskills
overnight. Drier air will return Monday but another period of
rain is likely Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and
seasonable.

Near term /through Monday/
Blocking high over new england has been stubbornly persistent
and unwilling to let go. This has kept some cold air over the
far eastern zones, mainly northern sullivan and eastern
delaware. As the next batch of rain moves in, nam12 shows some
lingering cold air in a narrow layer holding on and continuing
into the early morning hours before finally being scoured out.

At this time, believe icing will be isolated enough and remote
enough to be handled by an sps if needed.

System itself is not particularly strong, in fact the models
show the low filling over time as it moves into ontario. It does
show a nice little jet streak ahead of the wave and develops a
decent period of rain between 06z and 12z with rain amounts up
to a half inch possible. This could cause some minor hydro
issues, see hydro discussion section for details.

Somewhat drier air arrives on Monday, although clouds should
persist with just weak ridging and leftover moisture.

Short term /Monday night through Tuesday/
3 pm update...

Monday night a break with one system pulling out and another
moving in late. Mostly cloudy skies becoming cloudy. Mild
moist air will keep lows in the 40s. Snowmelt will continue.

Unsettled weather with another period of rain. This will move in
Tuesday morning and end in the evening. Rainfall amounts should
be mostly under a quarter of an inch. This is good given the
rain of the past week, rainfall Monday, snowmelt, and high river
and streams. Localized heavy rain possible in the afternoon and
evening as a cold front moves through. Model disagreement on
where the sfc low will be on the front. Some models bullseye the
lake plain and others the poconos. Trend has been the further
south solution which would put the most rain in the southeast
and out of the north branch susquehanna ny and oneida basins.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
3 pm update...

this period is quiet Wednesday and Thursday followed by a slow
moving occluded front Friday to Saturday. Sunday a cold front
late. Temperatures normal to above normal with highs in the 40s
and 50s, and lows in the 20s and 30s.

Tuesday night rain pulling out. Enough cold air comes in late so
any lingering light rain shower could be snow. Lows low to mid
30s.

Wednesday to Thursday high pressure at the surface with a ridge
aloft. Temperatures close to normal with highs in the 40s and
lows in the 20s and 30s.

Friday will be watching a strong storm for rainfall amounts.

Slow moving storm will move northeast from the central plains
into the great lakes Friday. Friday night it moves over our
region and reforms on the coast Saturday. The heaviest rain will
be with and ahead of the low Friday afternoon and night. Cold
air should stay to the north keeping all of the precip rain even
with the upper level trough Saturday. Any snow left will be
melted with warm moist air ahead of this storm.

Sunday will be in transition as flow GOES zonal and another
short wave and weak front approaches late.

Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/
A stalled front will continue to bring a mix of ifr and MVFR
flight conditions to the region this morning. Cold air still
clings to the sfc, thus some fzra continues to fall this am.

Fzra shouldn't last too long as sfc temps are forecast to rise
by mid-morning. There will be a brief lull in precip this
afternoon and possibly some improvement in flight conditions
before additional rain moves back into the region late tonight.

Winds will be light and variable for the next couple of hours,
then become e/se around 10 to 15 knots by mid day and continue
through much of the forecast period. Kavp will remain light and
variable through the period.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday... Restrictions likely from waves
of rain as frontal boundary waffles over the area.

Wednesday/Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Hydrology
245 pm edt Sunday update... The rain on snow melt event is
underway, and will continue into the upcoming week as
temperatures in the 50s-60s become more widespread across the
region. This warmth will also be accompanied by an increase in
surface dewpoints into the 40s.

Future rainfall amounts are roughly the same in today's model
runs, with basin averaged QPF up to an inch through Wednesday
morning. This along with the runoff of most of the 1 to 3 inches
of liquid water content across the headwaters of the upper
susquehanna, delaware and the oneida-syracuse river basin will
lead to high flows, and probably minor flooding at several of
the forecast gauge points in the susquehanna and upper delaware
tribs.

Mmefs ensemble spreads are even more aggressive than our latest
operational hydrologic model runs, and show a potential for a
quicker melt on Monday with sharp rises to flood stage at the
headwater points, followed by secondary crests on Tuesday. In
some cases, the mean crests are to the moderate flood stage.

The confidence of a near worst case scenario outcome is quite
low at this time, but it will be important to keep these caveats
in mind as this event unfolds, and be prepared to react to
locally heavier rainfall and/or a rapid melt down of the snow
cover.

With forecast crests still over 48 hours away, there is still
time for further assessment, and no watch will be issued at this
time.

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Dgm
near term... Dgm
short term... Tac
long term... Tac
aviation... Dgm
hydrology... Jab


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 42 mi45 min SE 14 G 21 40°F 1019.9 hPa (-0.6)32°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 94 mi45 min SSE 11 G 16 49°F 1018.6 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 96 mi45 min 49°F 1017.7 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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NE8
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NE1

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY16 mi51 minESE 1210.00 miOvercast40°F35°F83%1021.3 hPa
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY22 mi52 minESE 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast36°F30°F82%1024.9 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SE3CalmE4E6E6E10E8E8E10E11E12E11E15NE14
G20
E11E12E12E10SE19SE16SE14E13E12
1 day agoCalmCalmN4N3NW5NW3W5W6W6W4NW4NW4NW3NW5NW3N4CalmNW3NW6NW5NW4W3CalmCalm
2 days agoE6E4E4E7E5E8SE8SE7S45S12S7S11S7S11S12S7S7SE5SE5S8S10S5NE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.