Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 4:16 AM   Moonset 7:05 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405072115;;786336 Fzus51 Kbuf 071404 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1004 am edt Tue may 7 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-072115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1004 am edt Tue may 7 2024
This afternoon - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 071340 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 940 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Brief high pressure will result in a sunny pleasant day.
However, a warm front tonight will bring showers and a chance of thunder, followed by a cold front Wednesday which may produce isolated yet gusty afternoon thunderstorms. On-and-off chances for rain will continue later this week as multiple disturbances pass through the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
930 AM update...
Updated temperatures to match trends and no other changes made.

640 AM Update...
Impressive contrast this morning. Several of our typically coldest Central NY sites radiated into the mid to upper 30s with the very dry air mass that advected in, as high pressure and clearing arrived during the second half of the night. NY Mesonet sites Cincinnatus, Harpersfield, Morrisville, Walton, and Woodgate all found their way down to 34 degrees. Meanwhile, 40s to mid 50s in Northeast PA.

Previous discussion...
After a quick respite today, a warm front tonight followed by a cold front Wednesday will bring showers and a chance of thunder. Main near term concern is the potential for isolated yet gusty severe thunderstorms Wednesday.

Shield of high thin clouds is finally pressing off to the east, allowing for radiational cooling of a dry air mass in Central New York yet still some residual boundary layer moisture persists in Northeast Pennsylvania along with a few clouds. As such, there is quite a contrast in temperatures during the predawn hours, from near 40 degrees north to upper 50s south. A few spots may even find upper 30s in our typically coldest spots such as the upper Susquehanna tributary headwaters.

High pressure will pass over the region today, with mixing down of low dewpoints from the very dry air above the boundary layer.
That and full sunshine should help maximize diurnal range to highs of around 70-80 degrees, and minimum relative humidity in the upper 20s to upper 30s percent range except still 40s percent in higher terrain surrounding the Wyoming Valley. Winds will be very light.

The weak high exits quickly, as a warm front surges into the area overnight well ahead of low pressure approaching from the Upper Midwest. There will be instability aloft, so the quickly advancing showers may be accompanied by elevated embedded thunderstorms. Rain amounts tonight are forecast to range from a tenth or two of an inch south and central to more like three to four tenths of an inch for the NY Thruway counties.

Wednesday is starting to look fairly interesting. The warm frontal zone will lift to our northern zones in the morning, laying a track for the approaching low to zip through the area during the afternoon followed by a sagging cold front. This will be forced by a jet maximum aloft which will advect in an elevated mixed layer, with steep mid to upper level lapse rates and potential for top-heavy Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Source region of that elevated unstable mixed layer is all the way from the Four Corners region. The risk for severe thunderstorms is there, yet conditional, because coverage will be limited by the amount of dry air aloft even if unstable. Model soundings suggest biggest threat will be cold- pool driven gusty winds, with an inverted-V profile south of the frontal zone which will promote good mixing down. Unidirectional deep shear will also be quite strong; flow to the tune of 60-80 knots at 6 km. Top-heavy CAPE from the elevated mixed layer aloft also points to a risk of hail as well. Since almost the whole area will get into the warm sector, highs Wednesday will be in the 70s to lower 80s except it may struggle to get out of the 60s in northern Oneida County.

Again, though cells may be isolated in coverage Wednesday afternoon, they could be potent with damaging gusts and hail while also moving along very quickly due to strong deep flow.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
315 AM Update...

Any remaining showers or thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday evening. Low pressure north of the Ohio Valley will slowly move east through the night, and a few showers may work into western parts of the CWA before dawn Thursday. This low looks to track into western PA Thursday, after which its track becomes a little more uncertain. Either way, rain showers will spread south to north across NEPA and CNY, north of a warm front draped across the Mid Atlantic. Precip will linger across the area Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
315 AM Update...

Forecast confidence goes off the rails in the long term. Low pressure will likely be located somewhere in eastern NY or NEPA Friday morning, with rain showers continuing. The GFS slowly lifts the low north towards the Saint Lawrence Valley, while the ECMWF is far weaker and progressive. Ensembles suggest a wide range of possible solutions between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening in terms of precip chances. Kept lower-end PoPs for Friday Night into the first part of Saturday as we may end up in a break between systems. The next system looks to bring another round of rain showers to the area later Sunday, pushing east of the area Monday.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through today through early evening with high pressure in control. There will be subtle diurnally- influenced fluctuations in wind direction, with speeds mostly under 5 knots. A warm front will quickly approach the area tonight which will cause a ceiling to develop and lower.
Showers and embedded thunder are forecast to sweep southwest to northeast 06Z-12Z Wednesday across the terminals with associated restrictions. Thunder chances are too uncertain to include in specific TAFs at this time.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Lingering morning restrictions as rain showers finish up along a warm front; embedded thunder possible. Mostly VFR in afternoon, isolated yet gusty thunderstorms possible.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Periods of showers with some restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region, especially Thursday-Friday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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