Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cato, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:39PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:29 PM EST (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 6:31PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 946 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow late this morning. A chance of snow showers late. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then snow showers likely Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201711202230;;698828 FZUS51 KBUF 201446 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 946 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-202230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cato, NY
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location: 43.17, -76.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 201612
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1112 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
While accumulating lake snows will persist east and southeast of the
lakes through this afternoon, high pressure passing across the deep
south tonight will signal a warm up for our region with the lake
snows ending. A southerly flow around the large high will boost
temperatures into the 50s throughout our region on Tuesday, but
the warm up will be short lived as the next cold front will
plow across the area Tuesday night.

Near term through tonight
The deep cyclonic flow of chilly air that has been in place for the
second half of the weekend will give way to ridging this afternoon,
and this will result in the start of a warm advective pattern. This
will bring an end to the accumulating lake snows southeast of both
lakes, but not before depositing a couple more inches of
accumulation east of lake erie and significant accumulations
east of lake ontario.

Impressive lake effect snow band east of lake ontario producing
snowfall rates of at least 3 inches per hour across northern
oswego, southern jefferson and southern lewis counties. Flow
has backed a bit to a more westerly direction allowing for the
long fetch of lake ontario to be realized allowing for this
intensification of the snow band. Several mesoscale models keep
this band going through the afternoon in the same general
location, therefore lake effect snow warnings will remain in
place for the eastern lake ontario region, specifically the tug
hill region where over a foot of snow is likely.

Lake effect also continuing off lake erie as the low level flow
has backed to southwesterly. This has also allowed an uptick to
the snow band as it lifts northward toward thew buffalo metro
area. Though snowfall amounts will not be nearly as impressive
as off of lake ontario, we could still additional accumulations
through mid afternoon of 1 to 3 inches.

As we move through the late afternoon into early tonight, the lake
bands will gradually weaken. The weakening process will occur
first off of lake erie where the warm air advective process will
occur first which will effectively lower the cap to under 5k
feet. The diminishing lake response will occur about 6 hours
later for lake ontario with the lake band being erased by
midnight or so.

Otherwise, this afternoon will feature a wealth of clouds with
the mercury peaking a few degrees higher than those from Sunday.

Winds gusting to 30 mph at times will likely keep us from
noticing the negligible warm up though, as wind chills will be
in the 20s and lower 30s.

As our low level flow becomes more southwesterly tonight, drier
air will advect into the region. This will lead to clearing
from the southwest that will end with mainly clear skies over
the western counties by midnight. The strength of the warm
advection will support a non-diurnal temperature trend, as our
lows should occur by midnight or so with gradually rising
temperatures thereafter through daybreak.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday night
On Tuesday surface low pressure over central ontario province will
slowly push northeastward into western quebec... While slowly dragging
its trailing cold front in our direction. With our area remaining
well out ahead of the front... We can expect a dry day with fairly
plentiful sunshine through midday early afternoon only giving way to
some increasing clouds during the mid to late afternoon hours. This
said... The tightening pressure gradient in place out ahead of the cold
front will also guarantee the development of another round of rather
breezy to windy conditions during the day... With the strongest winds
found across far wny which will lie under an axis of stronger (40-50
knot) flow in the 925-850 mb layer. While the low level warm air advection
regime will help to prevent these stronger winds from totally mixing down
to the surface... The prevailing south-southwesterly low level flow will
still be supportive of some wind gusts approaching or potentially even
meeting low-end advisory levels across niagara and portions of northern
erie counties... For which a mention will be added to our hazardous
weather outlook. Otherwise we can expect a rather mild day... With the
aforementioned breezy to windy conditions... Fairly plentiful sunshine...

and 925 mb temps of +4c to +7c all leading to widespread high temps in
the lower to mid 50s... And a few spots in the finger lakes possibly
even reaching the upper 50s.

Tuesday night the surface low will gradually lift toward the ungava
peninsula while dragging its trailing cold front across our region.

While the main surface low will thus remain far to our north... The
boundary will still have the robust support of a fairly sharp mid
level trough to work with... And this combined with low level convergence
and moisture pooling along the boundary should be more than sufficient
to generate a fairly solid band of rain showers as the front crosses
our region... For which pops have been further bumped up into the high
likely range. In the wake of the frontal passage... Modest cold air
advection may then lead to the frontal precipitation briefly mixing with
or changing over to wet snow before quickly ending overnight... With only
very minimal snowfall accums of under a half inch possible across the
higher terrain. Otherwise... The cold advection regime behind the front
will result in low temperatures falling back to the lower to mid 30s.

Following Tuesday night's frontal passage... High pressure with colder
and much drier air will build across the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night. While this fresh airmass will be plenty cold enough to support a
lake response east and or southeast of the lakes... Its rather dry nature
should limit this to just some scattered light snow showers east-southeast
of the lakes Wednesday... With these then likely falling apart altogether
Wednesday night as the ridge crests overhead. Otherwise conditions will
be mainly dry... And thus favorable for pre-thanksgiving travel across
our region. With regard to temperatures... The colder airmass will result
in high temps remaining confined to the mid and upper 30s on Wednesday...

with lows then ranging through the 20s Wednesday night.

On thanksgiving day fair dry weather should largely continue with the
aforementioned surface ridge remaining in place a little to our south...

with just a few scattered lake effect snow showers possible across the
north country as the next cold front approaches from the northwest...

and leads to an increase in moisture across lake ontario. Otherwise high
temperatures will again generally range between 35 and 40 degrees...

albeit with a gradually freshening southwest wind as the pressure
gradient tightens some out ahead of the approaching cold front.

Finally for thanksgiving night... The various guidance packages have
come into better agreement that the next cold front will quickly slide
southeastward across our region... Though the bulk of its effects still
look to remain largely confined to the north country... Where scattered
frontally-driven snow showers may at least become briefly enhanced by
lake ontario and lead to some minor accumulations. Meanwhile... The rest
of the area should be drier with much more widely scattered snow showers.

Temperature-wise... We can expect more of the same with overnight lows
ranging in the mid to upper 20s.

Long term Friday through Sunday
On Friday... Mainly dry and uneventful weather will return as another
narrow ridge of high pressure quickly traverses the region in the wake
of Thursday night's cold front. As the axis of this ridge departs to
our east... Developing warm air advection will help afternoon highs
to largely climb back into the lower 40s south of lake ontario... And
into the mid to upper 30s across the north country.

After that... It still appears that the rest of this period will feature
a return to more unsettled weather courtesy of a another area of low
pressure that the medium range guidance packages all track eastward
across ontario and quebec provinces Friday night through Saturday
night. Out ahead of this system... Continued warm air advection should
lead to a non-diurnal temperature trend and renewed chances for rain
and snow showers Friday night... Followed by a relatively mild day and
some additional rain showers on Saturday as the low pivots its trailing
cold front into our region. Following the cold frontal passage... Steady
cold air advection should result in lingering rain showers changing back
over to snow showers Saturday night... With a general northwesterly flow
of colder air then supporting scattered snow showers and areas of lake
effect snow southeast of the lakes on Sunday.

Aviation 16z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions will be found across the majority of the region
this afternoon, as a large area of high pressure will nose
north across our region from the southern states. The only
issue will be continued lake effect snow that will be found
east of the lakes.

A band of lake effect snow off lake erie may produce a period of
MVFR conditions for sites from kbuf and kjhw early this
afternoon. During the mid to late afternoon, this activity will
weaken and push north toward kiag.

More significant lake snows will be found southeast of lake ontario.

This activity will focus mainly on the tug hill. There is a
chance that MVFR ifr conditions may reach kart between 18z and
00z as the steering flow backs a bit more.

Tonight... Skies will clear so thatVFR conditions can be
anticipated. There will be the potential for low level wind
shear. The greatest risk for this will come over the western
southern tier and finger lakes region.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MainlyVFR.

Wednesday... Rain and snow showers with a chance of MVFR ifr.

Thursday...VFR, but MVFR in lake effect -shsn E of the lakes.

Friday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Small craft advisories will be in place for all of the new york
nearshore waters... Including the buf harbor and iag upper iag
river... For the bulk of the forecast period.

While the deep storm system from the weekend continues to move away
across the canadian maritimes... Strong high pressure over the deep
south will keep a relatively strong surface pressure in place over
the region. This will keep moderately strong winds in place...

although there will be times when winds will subside to under 15
knots.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lake effect snow warning until 6 pm est this evening for
nyz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Tuesday for lez020-040-041.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Tuesday for
loz030-042>045.

Synopsis... Rsh tma
near term... Rsh tma
short term... Jjr
long term... Jjr
aviation... Rsh tma
marine... Rsh tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 21 mi41 min W 26 G 34 37°F 1013.8 hPa27°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 45 mi89 min W 27 G 33 39°F 51°F10 ft1012.6 hPa (-0.8)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 55 mi29 min WNW 13 G 19 36°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 56 mi41 min 36°F 1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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NW23
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SE11
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G18
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W15
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SW5
G8
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G16
S11
G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY16 mi35 minWSW 15 G 2210.00 miOvercast34°F23°F64%1014.5 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY24 mi35 minWSW 17 G 249.00 miLight Snow33°F24°F70%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
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NW11W16
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NW11NW6NW3CalmSW10W16
G23
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W14
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1 day agoSE5SE5SE4SE5E4SE44SE5SE75SE5SE6SE6SE5S6S8SW13
G19
W25
G34
W17
G26
W15
G24
NW19
G29
NW14
G24
NW18
G25
NW11
G22
2 days ago--W9NW11W10W8W4CalmCalmSE3CalmSE3SE3SE3E3E6SE7SE5556SE6SE7SE5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.