Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:32 AM   Moonset 4:26 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405051530;;652208 Fzus51 Kbuf 050758 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 358 am edt Sun may 5 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-051530- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 358 am edt Sun may 5 2024
Today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Periods of rain through early afternoon, then scattered showers late. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - Light and variable winds. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 052012 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 412 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will push across the region this evening, producing showers and a few thunderstorms through tonight. Rain will then end from west to east later tonight, with high pressure bringing a return to dry weather Monday. The dry weather will last through most of Tuesday before a warm front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Early this afternoon radar shows an area of steady rain showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. This area is along an area of DPVA and will continue to move eastward with the shortwave. Elsewhere there's only sparse showers as of 2 p.m.
However, daytime heating will result in very limited surface based instability which could result in some showers and possibly a thunderstorm late afternoon into early evening. Then a cold front approaching from the west will trigger some showers as it moves through tonight. There could be a few thunderstorms along this line this evening due to the lingering instability, but by late tonight expect only scattered showers with this boundary.

Low level flow will become quite weak along and behind the cold front tonight, and drier air will lag behind by several hours.
Abundant low level moisture and weak flow will likely allow areas of fog to develop from late evening through the overnight, with some of this fog possibly lasting through early Monday morning.

Weak surface high pressure will then build across the region on Monday and Monday night. There will be a north to south clearing trend during the day Monday. Fair weather Monday night, with mostly clear skies outside of some lingering clouds near the Pennsylvania state line which will be close to the stalled frontal boundary.

Despite the cold frontal passage, afternoon sunshine will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday.
Good radiational cooling Monday night with lows mainly in the 40s. Forecast hedges towards a wider diurnal spread (warmer highs and cooler lows) due to the clear skies and light winds.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Tuesday the axis of surface-based ridging will slowly drift from New York State to New England...while the leading edge of a sprawling mid level trough and associated surface low over the north- central states slowly works its way into the Upper Mississippi Valley
As this does so
a warm frontal boundary snaking southeastward from this system will slowly push northeast across the Ohio Valley...with this feature drawing close enough to support the potential for a few widely scattered showers/an isolated thunderstorm across the Southern Tier later on in the afternoon.
Otherwise...the day should feature continued dry weather with just a modest increase in cloud cover across far western New York. As for temps...the general warm air advection pattern across our region will allow highs to range through the 70s in many areas...though an onshore flow will keep the south and southeastern shores of both lakes notably cooler.

Tuesday night the warm frontal boundary will make its way across western New York while also becoming increasingly wavy over time as a supporting mid-level shortwave ripples eastward across the central/eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a continued southwest- northeast increase in cloud cover and eventually the likelihood of some showers as the night progresses...with a few thunderstorms also becoming possible due to the arrival of some weak elevated instability. Otherwise it will be a notably milder night with lows ranging from around 50 across the North Country to the mid and upper 50s south of the NYS Thruway.

On Wednesday the aforementioned shortwave will slide further east to New England...with one or more surface waves along the now-stalling frontal boundary eventually consolidating into a single broad surface low over southeastern NY and southern New England. As this occurs...any synoptically-driven showers and any embedded storms should tend to taper off from west to east through the day. Latest guidance suggests that this diminishing trend may even be quick enough to support largely dry conditions across far western New York for much of the day...though even there cannot completely rule out a few additional widely scattered afternoon showers/storms as a developing lake breeze convergence zone interacts with diurnally- driven instability. High temps are a bit of a tricky call at this juncture as the various guidance packages all show differing degrees of cooling aloft behind this system...though a rough model consensus suggests that readings may end up ranging from the mid-upper 60s across the North Country to the mid-upper 70s across interior portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier.

Wednesday night a weak bubble of high pressure will slide across New York State...before giving way to a sharp mid-level trough/surface low making their way east from the Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley later on in the night. As a result we can expect partly cloudy skies and largely dry/quiet weather Wednesday evening to eventually give way to increasing clouds and renewed chance of showers across Western New York by later on in the night
Otherwise
lows will generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

On Thursday the mid-level trough will make its way across the central Great Lakes...with its attendant surface low gradually becoming better organized as it slides east across the Upper Ohio Valley and into far southwestern New York. Increasing moisture and DCVA/isentropic upglide out ahead of this system will bring an increasing likelihood of showers across our area from southwest to northeast...with some weak instability also possibly supporting a few embedded thunderstorms across the Southern Tier. With the increased cloud and pcpn coverage expected...highs on Thursday will be cooler than those of the preceding few days...with maxes ranging from the lower 60s across the higher terrain to the mid and upper 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A potent shortwave trough and surface low pressure system will track along the 850H mid-level thermal boundary Thursday night though Friday. This system will likely bring widespread chances for showers and even some embedded rumbles of thunder. Cyclonic flow and along with the trough overhead will result in overall cooler temperatures.
Highs will be found in the 50s for most locales Friday.

Chances for showers decrease Friday night and especially during the day Saturday as shortwave ridging builds in and then moves through the eastern Great Lakes.

After Saturday...the next upstream upstream trough approaches but there are fairly large differences amongst the various guidance packages. Will for now hold close to NBM guidance with the potential for more unsettle weather beginning Sunday into next week.

Overall...this period will end on the cool side with below normal highs temperatures(50s to low 60s).

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low level moisture will remain in place for most of the 18Z TAF cycle. This afternoon mainly MVFR cigs with IFR across higher terrain. Area of showers across eastern Lake Ontario region will exit to the east by late afternoon. Otherwise, scattered instability showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across Western NY. Then steadier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm with the passage of a weak cold front this evening.

More low moisture behind this front, with IFR cigs likely along with areas of fog. Expecting vsby to drop to around one mile, but it will vary with lower vsbys possible at times.

Improving conditions late tonight and Monday morning as drier air builds in from the northwest. Expect mainly VFR flight conditions by Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.

MARINE
Negligible winds and waves through Tuesday. There may be some marine layer fog over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this afternoon through tonight as a warm/moist airmass overlays the cold lake waters.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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