Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:10PM Sunday January 21, 2018 7:53 AM EST (12:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:06AMMoonset 9:47PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 631 Am Est Sun Jan 21 2018
Today..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Cloudy. Waves in ice free areas 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then rain and snow showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201801211600;;772828 FZUS51 KBUF 211141 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-211600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211155
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
655 am est Sun jan 21 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will push north across the ohio valley today bringing a
chance for light drizzle or sprinkles into western new york. More
significant rainfall is expected Monday, as a large storm system
tracks into the central great lakes, with temperatures warming well
into the 40s ahead of this system. A cold front will then bring back
more typical winter weather late Tuesday into Thursday. Another warm
up is forecast Friday into next weekend.

Near term through tonight
A cold front stretches roughly from just north of lake ontario to
northern new york and east across southern maine this morning. A
warm front runs from low pressure over colorado east to just north
of the ohio river. The cold front is forecast to generally remain
stalled in place today with a zonal flow aloft while an increasing
southerly flow over the ohio valley will shift the warm front north
to near the ny pa border. Satellite imagery and surface obs show
extensive cloud cover across much of western and central ny with
moisture pooling ahead of the warm front. Radars are clear but cant
rule out a slight chance of some drizzle or sprinkles this morning
in the western southern tier and flurries in the north country as
bufkit profiles show weak lift within the saturated low levels. A
slight chance of freezing drizzle is possible where isolated temps
dip below freezing this morning.

Cloudy skies expected through today and into tonight as the warm
front advances north to near or into the western southern tier.

Models indicate any showers or drizzle will remain limited to just a
chance today with the lack of stronger forcing. The highest chances
will remain in the western southern tier closest to the approaching
front. Otherwise, most areas will remain dry. Temperatures today
should warm generally into the upper 30s to lower 40s despite
extensive cloud cover. Fog will also be possible today into tonight
as dewpoints rise above freezing in areas with lingering snow pack.

Tonight, we remain cloudy with the warm front lifting further
toward or into the western southern tier. Chances of hit miss
showers increase and spread north and east across western into
central ny. Light snow flurries would be the p-type across the
cooler north country. Steadier rain will become most likely
across the western southern tier late tonight. Fog due to the
warm air moving over lingering snow pack should become more
widespread overnight. Temps will range from the mid-upper 30s in
western ny to upper 20s to low 30s in the north county.

Short term Monday through Wednesday night
The main feature of significance during the first half of the week
will be a vertically stacked upper low that will be tracking from
the lower missouri valley Monday, across the central great lakes and
southern ontario by Tuesday, and to the gulf of st. Lawrence by
Wednesday. A warm front will lift across the region in advance of
this system on Monday, bringing precipitation to western and north-
central new york as it moves across the area from south to north.

For most areas, this precipitation should fall as rain, however
persistent northeasterly flow up the st. Lawrence valley will likely
keep sub-freezing air locked in across the area longer than the
models suggest. This should result in precipitation falling as sleet
and freezing rain in that area during the day on Monday before
temperatures climb above freezing Monday evening. A winter weather
advisory may be needed for this sleet freezing rain potential.

The initial round of warm frontal precipitation should only last for
a few hours, as the area becomes engulfed in the warm sector of the
approaching low. Temperatures will climb into the 40s on Monday and
remain in the 40s Monday night as warm air continues to surge across
the region ahead of the low. Expect rain to move back in Monday
evening, as a pre-frontal trough moves across the area from west to
east. There will likely then be another break in precipitation as a
dry slot moves across the area Tuesday morning before wraparound
moisture brings yet another round of precipitation later in the day
on Tuesday. Expect temperatures to be falling during the day on
Tuesday as a cold front moves through, causing rain showers to
chance over to snow showers as aforementioned wraparound moistures
works its way across the forecast area. As temperatures aloft
continue to fall Tuesday night, expect lake effect snow showers to
develop on wnw flow, though increasingly dry conditions and
shortwave ridging aloft will likely keep lake effect activity
modest.

Wednesday will feel more like mid-winter again, as 850mb temps drop
to around -15c, translating to highs in the 20s. Scattered lake
effect snow showers will be ongoing southeast of the lakes into
Wednesday evening, though as mentioned above, a lack of moisture
will significantly limit accumulations. Wind chills will likely fall
into the single digits across many areas Wednesday night on
continued brisk northwesterly flow.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
Any lingering lake effect snow showers should dissipate on Thursday
as a broad area of high pressure encompassing the eastern half of
the country moves over the region. The high pressure should also
allow for many areas to see decent sunshine, however temperatures
will remain below average, with highs in the 20s, with teens in the
north country, thanks to continued cold northwesterly flow on the
front side of an approaching upper level ridge. With light winds and
clearing skies underneath high pressure, expect Thursday night to be
the coldest night of the week, with lows in the teens across western
new york, and readings possibly dipping below zero in the north
country.

Quiet weather will continue on Friday and persist through Friday
night as the aforementioned high moves across the region.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday as the center of the
high moves off to the east and anticyclonic southerly flow begins to
advect warmer air back into the great lakes. This should allow
temperatures to climb back into the mid to upper 30s across most
areas, with the exception of the north country.

The progressive regime will continue as we move into next weekend,
as the upper level ridge moves across the eastern u.S. And a deep
trough digs across the great plains. The meridional flow currently
forecast should yield seasonably warm temperatures on Saturday, with
temperatures climbing back into the 40s, as warm air surges poleward
ahead of a low pressure system tracking across the upper
midwest western great lakes. Looking a little further ahead, we may
end up seeing a very wet conclusion to the weekend and start to next
week as gomex moisture surges across the region ahead of the
vigourous upper level trough. However, at this point it appears that
the rain should hold off at least until Saturday night.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Low CIGS in place kart and kjhw this morning with patches of ifr fog
due to warm air spreading over our snow pack. Satellite shows an
extensive deck of low clouds spreading north across western ny from
the ohio valley overspilling a warm front. The stratus deck will
move north to buf, kiag and then kroc through the mid to late
morning reaching kroc by early afternoon. Kjhw will hold in ifr cigs
and vis through today and into tonight. CIGS will then remain MVFR
at all sites from around midday into tonight except kjhw will remain
at ifr. Areas of fog will also bring MVFR ifr vis with more
melting of the snow pack. Some rain showers likely moving near
kjhw during the evening but becoming more likely across all of
wny during the late overnight as a warm front lifts north.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night... MVFR ifr with widespread rain.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr with rain showers changing to snow showers before
ending... Then areas of lake effect snow also developing east of the
lakes Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure reaching across the eastern great lakes region will
promote light winds and wave action on the eastern great lakes
through today and tonight.

Northeasterly winds will re-freshen on Monday, as a large area of
low pressure tracks from the lower missouri valley towards the great
lakes. This will likely generate more small craft advisory
conditions on the western half of lake ontario. This low will then
track across the great lakes on Tuesday, sweeping a cold front
across the lower great lakes late Tuesday into Tuesday night and
bringing a potential for gales on lake ontario behind the front
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Flood watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
nyz010-019-020-085.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Smith
near term... Smith
short term... Wood
long term... Wood
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi54 min W 1.9 G 2.9 35°F 1021 hPa (+1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi54 min 32°F 1020.1 hPa (+1.0)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi54 min S 5.1 G 6 32°F 1020.7 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi60 minWSW 46.00 miFog/Mist27°F25°F92%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW16SW13W14W18
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W13W17SW12SW7SW7W3SW6SW10SW7SW11
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2 days agoW16
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W11W8SW5SW5S5SW5SW3SW10W14W14W15W11W13
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G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.