Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:55PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 10:08 PM EDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:48AMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 718 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 68 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201706290315;;974157 FZUS51 KBUF 282318 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 718 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-290315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 282340
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
740 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move off the mid-atlantic coast tonight while a
low pressure system moves through the upper great lakes into
ontario. A warm front will move across the region late tonight ahead
of the low, bringing scattered light showers and even some rain
for the north country. Scattered thunderstorms will develop
late Thursday, and some could produce gusty to damaging winds.

Unsettled, warmer and humid weather will continue through the
weekend before high pressure builds in early next week bringing
seasonable and drier weather.

Near term through Thursday
An area of high pressure centered off the mid-atlantic coast
will keep most of the area dry for most of the evening. The
only exception is the saint lawrence valley where there will be
scattered showers and thunderstorms on back of the departing
shortwave which will dissipate shortly after sunset.

Later this evening, an area of mid-level warm air advection will
spread in advance of surface low pressure centered near
minnesota. Initially, mid and high clouds will spread into the
area this evening, with some light showers possible along the
warm frontal boundary overnight. Model consensus suggests this
activity will become more widespread as it passes to the north
late tonight. Overnight low temperatures will be mainly in the
50s, except across the lake plains where downsloping may keep
temperatures from falling below 60.

By Thursday morning the frontal boundary will be in place across the
north country, with locations south of lake ontario established into
the warm sector. A shortwave will ride along this boundary, helping
to force a more widespread area of rain for the north country. This
will also organize an area of scattered showers with perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder that will move across locations south of lake
ontario during the morning hours. In the wake of this shortwave, we
should see perhaps some sunshine breaking through to help
destabilize the warmer, humid airmass advecting into the region.

Depending on how unstable this airmass can get, we should see some
thunderstorms develop off the combination lake breeze pre-frontal
trough by late Thursday afternoon. The wind field will be fairly
fast and unidirectionally increasing with height in the warm sector.

This will support a marginal threat for severe weather, mainly in
the form of isolated damaging wind gusts.

However, this will be a scenario where buffalo niagara falls and
watertown likely remain mostly dry if not sunny at times through
Thursday afternoon. This will be due to the robust, synoptically
aided southwesterly flow lake breeze that will develop. A core of
40+ knot winds will develop near 2kft, which will funnel up lake
erie. The warm advective pattern, with poor low-level lapse rates
across the niagara frontier will help keep all of that wind from
mixing down. However, can easily see gusts topping out around 35
knots, or 40 mph. Would not rule out a couple gusts around 45 mph,
especially at niagara falls, with the mainly 220 wind direction that
can tend to have an isentropic downslope effect off of the cooler
lake erie.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Thursday night will mark the beginning of a warm and humid period
with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms lasting
through Saturday. A warm front will already be north of the region
by Thursday night, while a weak cold front tries to move toward the
region. But while some weak troughs may move through Thursday night
or Friday, it's looking less likely that the main boundary will make
much headway into wny. This appears to be due to the fact that the
slow moving upper level flow will spawn either a few surface lows
moving NE into the upper great lakes region or result in just one
low generally S of james bay with a persistent trailing ne-sw trough
co-located with an upper level jet stuck over an area between about
missouri to quebec. As a result, the region will likely end up
in the warm sector for the majority of the time until the cold
front finally wafts through late Saturday or Saturday eve.

The result will be low confidence on timing precipitation events
from Thursday night through Saturday. That said, it's safe to say
that mesoscale boundaries will play some role in focusing
convection, with a high chance for ongoing convection inland of wny
into the eastern lake ontario region Thursday evening, with a lower
threat in lake shadowed regions along the lakeshores. As lake
boundaries lose their influence, upstream convection may be able to
move across the lakes later Thursday night and Friday am. A repeat
idea is plausible on Friday, with lake breeze convergent boundaries
driving higher convective chances toward Friday afternoon and
evening.

Finally on Saturday, the upstream frontal boundary should start
making some headway and either move through during the afternoon or
evening hours Saturday evening. This will result another chance for
afternoon convection, particularly on lake breezes.

With warm and humid air in place for this period, expect
temperatures climb toward the low 80s in most spots but with
humidity levels being a little uncomfortable at times. The sultry
period may be Friday night through Saturday with dewpoints in
the upper 60s and or near 70.

In terms of severe weather, there doesn't appear to be too much of a
signal for widespread severe. With the warm and moist airmass,
large hail is unlikely. There might be a wind threat on Friday
inland along and east of lake breeze with higher shear, but this may
be isolated. Possibly a slightly greater threat may be heavy rain,
particularly in the eve overnight hours Friday night and or Sat with
a stronger low level jet near about 30kts together with high pw
between about 1.75-2.00".

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Cooler and drier air will start moving into the region on Sunday.

This won't make much of an impact at the surface in terms of daytime
temperatures, but with dewpoints dropping through the 60s, humidity
levels should be more comfortable for the remainder of the weekend
into next week. There will still be a chance for convection on
Sunday on lake breezes, but most areas outside of these localized
areas should remain dry.

By Monday, a ridge should be moving eastward through ontario and
into quebec, and extending S through nys. This should result in a
dry period, including Monday eve for any early fireworks displays.

For the fourth of july, there are some model discrepancies with the
ec bringing a surface trough and related precipitation in the
region. Looking higher up, there isn't anything that fits this
scenario - no identifiable shortwave troughs. The GFS on the other
hand has convection breaking out over southern ontario and into
western ny central pa indicative of scattered afternoon eve
convection on lake breeze boundaries. Thus will have a low chance
of afternoon eve convection, mainly inland. But this is ~7 days out
and much can change.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions will prevail overnight. Clouds will increase
from west to east overnight ahead of the next approaching
weather system, with some light showers possible from this mid-
level cloud deck.

The warm front will move northward across the region Thursday
morning sparking some scattered rain showers from a mid-level
cloud deck, with more steady rain developing over the north
country. MainlyVFR conditions will prevail trough tonight and
into Thursday morning with the possibility of MVFR conditions
at art due to the more persistent rain near the frontal
boundary.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon, but
these will mainly be inland of the lake shadow, impacting only
jhw and possibly art. A strong southwest flow is likely to keep
buf iag roc mainly dry Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR MVFR with showers likely and possibly a
thunderstorm. Llws possible.

Friday through Sunday...VFR MVFR with scattered to occasionally
more numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Monday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure building across the lower great lakes will result in
winds and waves remaining below advisory levels tonight.

As the next frontal system works its way into our region later on
tonight and Thursday... Winds will then once again freshen out of the
south and southwest... Potentially bringing advisory-worthy conditions
to both lake erie and the upper niagara river buffalo harbor.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Church
near term... Apffel church
short term... Zaff
long term... Zaff
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel church


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi68 min WSW 6 G 8 71°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.6)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi50 min 69°F 1016.5 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi78 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 64°F1 ft1015.8 hPa (-0.8)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi68 min S 5.1 G 8.9 68°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last
24hr
W18
G22
W15
G19
W15
W12
G16
SW4
G8
S6
S7
S6
G9
S7
G10
S6
SW7
W8
G15
W12
G16
W11
G17
W12
W9
G13
W5
W6
W6
G9
W7
G10
W7
G10
W4
G7
S4
S5
1 day
ago
S7
S6
S7
S8
S8
G11
S9
S8
S4
G7
S5
S8
G11
S8
S6
G9
SE6
G11
SW11
G16
W16
W16
G22
W8
G11
W12
G17
W13
G16
W11
G14
SW6
G11
SW6
G11
W17
G23
W19
G25
2 days
ago
SW7
SW5
G8
S7
G10
S7
G11
S5
S7
S4
S6
S6
SW8
S6
S5
G8
W9
G12
W8
G11
NW7
G10
NW4
S6
G9
W7
NW5
N3
S4
W9
S6
S4
G8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi74 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F52°F59%1017 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last 24hrW6SW5SW6SW5SW6SW6SW6SW5SW7SW4SW7W8W7W12W9W8
G15
W12
G19
W12W10W13
G19
W7W6SW5SW5
1 day agoS4W3SW3SW9SW7SW8SW8SW9SW7SW8SW7SW10W10W11
G16
W12
G17
W12
G19
W15
G22
W18
G24
W16
G21
W15
G20
W11
G20
W9W6SW5
2 days agoSW5SW4SW4SW6SW4SW5SW6SW4SW6SW7W9W13W11SW11W10W12NE7SW12
G23
W10SW12
G26
NW6Calm33

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.