Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:06PM Saturday September 23, 2017 8:58 AM EDT (12:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:20AMMoonset 8:14PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 651 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 65 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201709231545;;806710 FZUS51 KBUF 231051 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 651 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-231545-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231052
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
652 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
Strong high pressure will allow dry and very warm weather to
continue through the weekend and into the first half of next week. A
cold front will finally bring a chance of showers by Wednesday night
and Thursday, followed by much cooler air to end next week.

Near term through tonight
Satellite imagery showing some limited fog across the river valleys
of the western southern tier and also across oswego county,
with lower surface dewpoints likely contributing to less fog
coverage than recent mornings. Elsewhere skies will be mainly
clear through the early morning, with just a few patches of mid
level clouds drifting towards the area from southern ontario.

The fog will burn off by around 9 am and leave another dry and very
warm day with high pressure surface and aloft centered over the
eastern great lakes and ohio valley. A weak mid level shortwave will
move into the ridge position and dissipate today. This may bring a
few patches of mid level clouds at times, but not enough to prevent
plenty of sunshine. Expect highs in the mid 80s at lower elevations
and around 80 across higher terrain. Local lake breezes will keep
the immediate lakeshores in the upper 70s.

Tonight high pressure remains over the area with mainly clear skies.

Fog may be a little more extensive tonight than last night as
surface dewpoints move higher. Expect patchy fog in many rural areas
overnight, with better fog coverage in the typical river valleys of
the western southern tier. Temperatures will be milder than recent
nights with the higher dewpoints. Expect lows in the mid 60s on the
lake plains and upper 50s to lower 60s for the interior southern
tier and east of lake ontario.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
An anomalous 590 dm upper ridge will remain across the region during
the period. This will maintain dry weather with mid-summer warmth
across western and north central new york through the period. Skies
will be clear outside of periodic thin high cloud cover and patchy
morning stratus.

850 mb temperatures underneath the ridge will build to near +20c
both Sunday and Monday, which is even warmer than the past week.

This supports highs 3-5 degrees warmer then the past several days,
with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. The warmest readings
are expected across inland areas away from local lake breeze
circulations. It also will be more moist, with dew points rising to
the mid to upper 60s. This will make it feel uncomfortably hot,
despite the calender date.

It does look as if some daily high temperature records may be
challenged during this time frame, particularly at buffalo and
rochester. Buffalo's record highs for Sunday and Monday are 88 and
87, respectively, while rochester's records highs are 90 and 92,
respectively. Buffalo looks to stand the best chance at breaking a
daily record high temperature on either day. Ironically buffalo has
also made it the entire summer without hitting the 90 degree mark,
but now that we are officially in autumn, buffalo may make a run at
the 90 degree mark.

Nighttime low temperatures will be a bit warmer due to the higher
dew points. Lows will average in the lower to mid 60s, with upper
50s across the typically cooler valleys in the southern tier and
north country. This will also result in areas of fog, especially in
the valleys.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
A major pattern change enters the picture for the second half of
next week going into the beginning of october. Global models are in
good agreement that the all-too-familiar western CONUS ridge will
make a reappearance by mid to late week, which will open the door
for troughing across the great lakes and eventually the northeast,
as we have seen for much of the summer.

The ridging will start to weaken Tuesday into Wednesday as a trough
moves over the upper great lakes by late Wednesday. Even so,
temperatures will remain well above normal Tuesday into Wednesday
with highs in the 80s. This is still about 15 degrees above normal
for this time of year.

A weak cold front will cross the region but QPF is minimal with
scattered showers and possible a thunderstorm. The 00z ECMWF is
faster than GFS ggem guidance, with consensus timing in the late
Wednesday to early Thursday timeframe. Despite much cooler air
expected to spill across the region in the wake of the cold front
passage, this airmass change will only get us back down to near more
seasonal values by late week, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s
Thursday.

A shortwave will dive across the lower great lakes Friday, with
another shot of cooler air. Highs Friday will be in the low to mid
60s. The air aloft will be cool enough for some lake enhancement,
with a chance of showers on Friday with the shortwave.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will remain parked over the eastern great lakes
through the period. Typical river valley fog will continue early
this morning across the western southern tier with local ifr. Some
of this may impact kjhw until 13z. Patchy fog will also bring
some spotty ifr to areas east and southeast of lake ontario,
mostly near kfzy.

The fog will burn off by 13z, leavingVFR to prevail for the
rest of the day with just a few patches of mid level clouds
crossing the area. Southern tier river valley fog will develop
again tonight, with patchy fog elsewhere bringing local ifr. The
fog may be a little more extensive than the past few nights as
surface dewpoints begin to rise.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. Local ifr conditions each late night
and early morning with fog.

Wednesday... Chance of showers and thunderstorms with mainlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure will remain in place across the lower great lakes
right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will
provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with
ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Apffel
long term... Apffel tma
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi59 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 1021 hPa (+2.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi41 min 62°F 1020.4 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi69 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 70°F 70°F1019.7 hPa (+2.1)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi59 min S 5.1 G 6 64°F 1021 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi65 minWSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds59°F55°F90%1021 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmNE7N9NE955N6N6N5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW3SW5SW4W5SW6SW5W4SW5
1 day agoSW3SW4NW3SE3CalmNE7CalmNE11NE9NE10NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3W4CalmCalmW4SW3SW3
2 days agoSW3SW3CalmN6NE8E7NE6NE10NE9E8E4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4CalmW3SW4SW4SW4W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.