Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North East, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:47PM Thursday May 23, 2019 2:40 AM EDT (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:52AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ169 Expires:201905230845;;303822 Fzus61 Kcle 230146 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 946 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A warm front will move northeast across lake erie overnight as low pressure 29.60 inches moves onto lake superior. The low will continue across ontario into quebec Thursday dragging a trailing cold front across the lake. A ridge averaging 30.20 inches will move east across the lake Friday. A warm front will follow Friday night. A cold front will drop southeast across the lake Saturday night. High pressure 30.00 inches will move east across the central great lakes Sunday. A warm front will approach from the south on Monday. Lez061-168-169-230845- lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny- lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh- lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny- 946 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers late this evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ169


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East , PA
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location: 43.17, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 230614
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
214 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A warm front extending from low pressure over minnesota will
lift north across the area over the course of this evening and
tonight. As low pressure continues northeast across the upper
great lakes on Thursday, a cold front will settle south across
the area. This boundary will lift back north on Saturday as a
warm front then stall overhead on Sunday.

Near term through today
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move east and out of
the area at this time. Updated to push back edge of rain threat
further east. Line of showers and thunderstorms already
approaching from the west and expected to arrive in the western
portions of the forecast area around sunrise in the morning.

Otherwise, forecast looks on target.

Previous discussion...

plume of moisture continues to stream northward into ohio this
afternoon in advance of a warm front moving into central oh.

Scattered showers continue to break out and, up to this point,
have been without thunder. Closer to the warm front marginal
mucape exists and expect scattered thunderstorms to be possible
east of i-71 this evening as a narrow nose of instability works
into eastern oh with the shear to loosely organize storms. Mid
level lapse rates continue to remain poor. After about 10 or 11
pm, the remainder of the tonight forecast is dry, but we will
be looking upstream as convection nears northwest oh Thursday
morning. Latest trends is for this initial convection to arrive
earlier, but be able to retain modest strength. Low level jet
will carry this into the area and have likely pops march across
the area during the morning hours. Lapse rates are better and
will have a narrow corridor of MLCAPE and shear to maintain the
convection across. If indeed this is the case, pops would need
to be raised. But cold front is still off to the northwest and
will not cross until later in the afternoon so some
redevelopment is likely with at least scattered coverage. Areas
along east remain in the SPC slight risk. Partially clearing and
drying out faster too Thursday night with high pressure
shifting across the central great lakes. Temperatures will be
mild tonight in the warm sector with the southerly flow. Warm
again Thursday, although it may be a slow start with precip to
start. Lows in the lower mid 50s Thursday night in the wake of
the cold front.

Short term tonight through Saturday night
Friday begins with high pressure across the area, extending in
from the north. To our west and southwest, a warm front will be
near a chicago to cincinnati line. As the front moves ene into
the area Friday night, the NAM shows capes rise to over 1000
j kg in the warm sector but much of this is elevated and the air
aloft will be fairly dry so for now will have Friday dry and
Friday night mainly slight chance with a low chance pop north.

Saturday capes again rise to 1500-2000 j kg with afternoon
heating. Models also show a cold front advancing into the area
from the north. The day should start dry for most but in the
afternoon will boost pops to likely much of the area. Models
hinting on the cold front stalling out dissipating somewhere in
the area Saturday night although for now will taper pops into
the low chance slight chance category. Sunday will continue with
chance likely pops with the weak front in the area. Highs
Friday mostly 70s. Highs Saturday 80 to 85. Sunday highs 75 to
80.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Monday the weak cold front from Sunday will track back north as
a warm front ahead of low pressure moving into the western
lakes. No real forcing otherwise so will just have chance pops
for the day for afternoon evening convection. Monday night will
drop to slight chance as the low moves northeast through the
western and central lakes. Seems any forcing would be well away
from the area. Tuesday the GFS shows stability rather low with
afternoon li's around -7c and what looks like a prefrontal
trough in advance of the warm front tracking across the area in
the afternoon. For now will have chance pops. The cold front
associated with the low will move through on Wednesday. Will
continue with chance pops for the balance of the forecast.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Areas of fog have been developing across SW ohio with MVFR
already at fdy at 05z. Thickening high cloud is expected to
prevent visibilities from dropping much more but could see
patchy MVFR during the overnight hours. Otherwise watching an
area of showers and thunderstorms across illinois that are
expected to reach NW ohio towards 10-12z. Although some
weakening is expected, tried to time scattered thunderstorms
into tol fdy around 11z, spreading east towards cle mfd cak at
12-14z and yng eri towards 14-15z. Did not add stronger wind
gusts to the terminals yet but it's possible we could see gusts
to 30-40 knots if thunderstorms maintain strength. Brief heavy
rain with ifr visibilities and even small hail will be
possible.

After the morning activity moves through, the airmass will try
to destabilize from mfd-cak and points south. Scattered
thunderstorms may re-develop this afternoon in this area and
may need to be added to the terminals.

Thunderstorm activity early this morning is going to be fueled
by a low level jet with wind speeds of 40-45 knots at 2000 feet
and have included a window of low level wind sheer from
cleveland westward. By late morning we will start to see
southwest winds become breezy with gusts to around 25-30 knots.

Winds will drop off to 5-15 knots tonight as they shift around
to the northwest behind a cold front.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible in thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
Have dropped the lakeshore flood warning as easterly flow has
weakened. Low pressure moves through the northern and central
lakes overnight forcing a warm front northeast across the lake.

A cold front will follow from the northwest on Thursday.

Guidance has winds increasing to around 15 to 20 knots on the
central and eastern basin. Highest waves are expected to remain
out of the nearshore waters but it will get close to small craft
conditions. For now will not issue a headline but one may be
needed. Winds turn northwest but diminish behind the cold front
Thursday night. Light wind will continue through Friday night.

Saturday southerly flow will increase to around 15 knots behind
another warm front and in advance of the next cold front. Winds
will diminish and turn northwest on Saturday night. Winds will
remain light through the balance of the forecast.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Lombardy oudeman
short term... Tk
long term... Tk
aviation... Kec
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 75 mi41 min SSE 13 G 18 62°F 1015.9 hPa (-2.1)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 77 mi47 min 56°F 1016 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA77 mi50 minSSE 1210.00 miFair64°F55°F75%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3E4NE3E4CalmSE9SE13
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1 day agoNW5CalmS3S3S34NW5W6NW6W7W8W8NW7W7NW7W5NW6W3CalmCalmCalmE4E3Calm
2 days agoSW9SW10
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W8W8NW8NW10NW9NW6NW8NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.