Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North East, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:02PM Friday February 22, 2019 9:17 PM EST (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 9:57PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ169 Expires:201902230315;;349855 Fzus61 Kcle 222100 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 400 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Rapidly deepening low pressure will move northeast out of the plains Saturday and deepen to 28.90 inches as it reaches the central great lakes Sunday. This system will pull a strong cold front across lake erie early Sunday. A ridge of high pressure averaging 30.60 inches will extend southeast across lake erie Monday through Wednesday. Lez061-166>169-230315- lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny- lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh- lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh- lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh- lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny- 400 pm est Fri feb 22 2019
.storm watch in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers late.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Rain showers likely in the evening, then rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight.
Sunday..South gales to 35 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 50 knot storms in the afternoon. Rain showers likely.
Sunday night..West storm force winds to 50 knots diminishing to 40 knot gales. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight.
Monday..West gales to 40 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of snow Tuesday night.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow during the day. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ169


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East , PA
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location: 43.17, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 222335
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
635 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
Surface high pressure will shift east tonight. Focus shifts to a
rapidly deepening storm system over the panhandle region
Saturday morning. This low pressure system will move into the
high plains and then into the upper great lakes by Saturday
night. A strong cold front associated with this system will
swing through the area Sunday morning, followed by dropping
temperatures and strong winds. High pressure will build back
into the area early next week.

Near term through Saturday
Update... Increased clouds in grids for the overnight. No other
changes.

Update... Quiet weather tonight as high pressure slides away
from the area and into new england. Attention will focused on
the tx ok panhandle region where a negatively tilted shortwave
is expected to cut off tonight. This will be the catalyst for
the hazardous weather expected across the local area this
weekend. The surface low will rapidly deepen on Saturday as it
moves towards lake michigan. Return flow will pick up midday on
Saturday, around which time rain will start to expand in
coverage. With the later start time on the precipitation, no
longer concerned about p-type issues at the onset as
temperatures should be above freezing by that time. Temperatures
will warm during the day into the mid to upper 40s, with the
high temperatures likely in the evening. After sunset the warm
nose will makes it way into northern ohio and temperatures are
expected shoot up to the low to mid 50s, probably peaking after
10 pm. Rain will increase in intensity, though for now only
anticipating rainfall amounts around half an inch. Minor
flooding possible along some already elevated rivers and
streams.

Now to the dynamics. Conditions are very impressive with
extreme shear and strong upper level jet support as the low
continues to bomb out. Expect to see discrete showers and
thunderstorms Saturday evening, with more development as the
dry slot moves in from the west between 03z and 09z. This will
be the best chance for any isolated severe storms, with the main
threat hail and straight line winds. SPC day 2 outlook has
pulled back on the severe threat across the local area with the
main focus over ar tn. The low level inversion with the warm
nose Saturday night does support a reduced risk and organized
storms will be unlikely. However, don't want to rule out the
potential given the high shear low CAPE (~300 j kg) situation
evolving in that window. Can't rule out some strong winds mixing
down along ahead of the front Saturday night, but the main wind
threat will be Sunday and Sunday night.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Upper level pattern and surface low pressure response to the
upper level flow is more indicative of the fall storm season on
the great lakes rather than february. Traditional southwest to
northeast track of the low pressure system that we see in the
fall is shaping up to be similar to the event we see over the
weekend. Deep low pressure will move northeast across the
central great lakes and force a cold front east across the area
early Sunday morning. The front will usher in much colder air
and the possibility for strong gusty winds across the area. The
best location for the highest winds could possibly be along the
lakeshore with slightly lighter winds the further inland one
goes. Model soundings show momentum transfer of wind bringing
gusty winds to the surface at 40 to 50 knots most areas. Higher
gusts possible as showers tap into the higher winds aloft.

Strong cold air advection will take place Sunday and
temperatures will fall through the 30s through the day.

Expecting any rain showers to change over to snow showers from
west to east as the colder air arrives. The storm system will
move northeast of the area Sunday night into Monday and this
will allow the gradient to slacken and therefore allow winds to
diminish across the region. Fair weather returns Monday into
Tuesday as broad upper level ridge builds into the western half
of the lower 48 states but cold air advection will continue.

Surface high pressure ridge will extend southeast over the local
area Monday and Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Amplification of the upper level ridge will take place over the
western united states as a broad trough dives into the eastern
united states Tuesday night into Wednesday. The upper level ridge
will begin to break down slightly as a weak broad trough moves
through the mean flow. Surface high pressure should be the dominant
weather feature at the surface but a fast moving weak low pressure
system will scoot through the central great lakes Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This low pressure system will have limited moisture to
work with but can't rule out a chance for some light snow with the
system. Otherwise, some differences in the long range models with
the european being the dry model while the GFS is trending wet. Will
keep mention of rain snow for Friday for now. No real strong push
of cold or warm air expected through this forecast period.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions will continue through the night and into Saturday
morning. Saturday afternoon conditions will quickly drop through
MVFR to ifr from the southwest as rain and low CIGS move in
ahead of an approaching warm front.

Outlook... High wind threat for Sunday and Sunday night. NonVFR
likely Sunday with lingering showers and the development of
lake effect snow Sunday night.

Marine
Lake erie is about to really get stirred-up over the weekend as a
very strong low pressure system rapidly intensifies and moves
northeast into the great lakes. Initially, winds are expected to be
light tonight and then begin to increase out of the east on the lake
just north of a warm front Saturday. Warm front will lift well
north of the area by Saturday night and winds will gradually
increase out of the southwest and then rapidly increase Sunday
morning with the passage of the cold front. At least gale force
winds are possible on the lake Sunday morning through Monday morning
and then gradually diminishing through the day Monday. There is the
possibility that storm force winds could be reached during the day
Sunday on the eastern two thirds of the lake. Will maintain gale
and storm watches where currently in effect at this time. Generally
light and variable winds are expected by Wednesday.

Ice on the lake will get stirred up as numerous floes have
developed. The strong winds will likely cause ridging and rafting
of the ice. The strong winds will also likely push the ice inland
as ice shoves develop. Some damage from the ice could occur along
the shore to structures due to the high water levels and strong
winds.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
ohz010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.

High wind watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday
night for ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.

Pa... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
paz001>003.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
lez142>145-162>165.

Storm watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
lez146>149-166>169.

Synopsis... Jamison
near term... Jamison tk
short term... Lombardy
long term... Lombardy
aviation... Tk
marine... Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 75 mi78 min E 4.1 G 4.1 30°F 1032.2 hPa (+0.8)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 75 mi78 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 30°F 1031.5 hPa (+0.7)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 77 mi30 min 31°F 1031.8 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA77 mi27 minENE 710.00 miFair29°F19°F69%1031.4 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W10
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W9W4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5N4N6N5N6N7NE8NE5NE4NE4NE5NE7
1 day agoS17
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2 days agoCalmNE4E3E3CalmSE4NE7E6NE6E4CalmSE8SE6SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.