Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North East, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:21PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:53 AM EDT (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:59AMMoonset 4:04PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ169 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 932 Pm Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Overnight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms from late morning on. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening... Then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 10 knots or less. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ169 Expires:201708170815;;497930 FZUS61 KCLE 170132 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 932 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A warm front will lift northward across Lake Erie on Thursday. Low pressure 29.50 will move across the Northern lakes late Thursday night dragging a cold front across the Lake. An upper level short wave will move across the Lake Saturday. High pressure 30.10 inches will move across the Lower Lakes this weekend and move off the East Coast Monday. LEZ061-167>169-170815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East , PA
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location: 43.17, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 170131
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
931 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over the midwest will move to northern michigan by
Thursday evening, then slowly continue northeast into canada. A weak
cold front will move east across the area Thursday night with cooler
air arriving with a secondary trough Friday night. High pressure
will build northeast up the ohio valley on Saturday.

Near term through Thursday night
No major changes with this update. Some shower and thunderstorm
activity is trying to develop across southwest ohio and more
lighter stuff over eastern indiana. This activity will gradually
move east toward the area overnight.

Previous discussion...

a few showers are sneaking into the southern counties late this
afternoon focused in a region of weak surface convergence. Weak
instability along with warm air in the mid levels above 700mb is
limiting vertical growth with storms struggling to get much above 15-
20k feet. Will leave an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the
forecast for the southern counties through about 8 pm. After
that skies will tend to clear this evening before high cloud
arrives overnight. Clouds will tend to thicken and lower with
time so expecting lows to occur during the overnight hours
before warming late. Increasing humidity at the western
terminals will keep lows closer to 70 while eastern sites taper
down to near 60 in NW pa.

For Thursday we turn our attention to the trough approaching from
the plains. Low pressure over iowa will track northeast towards
upper michigan on Thursday. Moisture advection occurs overnight in
advance of the trough although the low level jet energy we saw a
couple days ago has backed off. Model sounding show sufficient
moistening of the column aloft that expect to see showers expanding
into NW ohio during the morning. Conditions will be fairly stable
with this first round so mainly expecting showers with a few
scattered thunderstorms around.

After the initial push of moisture, breaks in the showers are likely
before starting to fill back in with daytime heating. Pw values will
be near 2" so thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain.

Expecting fairly cloudy conditions to have some limiting effect on
temperatures so forecast highs are only in the low to mid 80s. Any
breaks will allow for a quick jump in both temperatures and
instability. Otherwise expecting showers and thunderstorms to fill
in during the afternoon as weak front arrives from the west with
large scale lift increasing with the arrival of a mid-level dry
slot. Best forcing is focused across NW ohio where the storm
prediction center has brought a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
into NW ohio. Ml CAPE only expected around 1000 j kg during the
afternoon so that will be a limiting factor. As the front moves east
Thursday night, storms will be tracking northeast along the frontal
boundary which could lead to some training and heavy rainfall. Rain
will taper off from west to east during the overnight as the drier
air spreads in from the west.

Short term Friday through Sunday
Some lingering showers in the east to start of Friday morning
but they should move east by the afternoon. Models continue in
good agreement moving an upper level short wave across the
forecast area on Saturday. For now will just keep chance pops
going.

Short wave moves east of the forecast area Saturday night. Sunday
should remain dry with ridge of surface high pressure lingering over
the eastern lakes.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
High pressure will drift east of the region Sunday night with
southerly winds returning for Monday. Expect to see some afternoon
cumulus develop across inland locations. The next storm system will
dig into the western great lakes early Tuesday then drift eastward
through the day. Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday afternoon
through the overnight. For now have only gone with high end chance
pop's which means scattered thunderstorms. However if the models
remain consistent over the next few days we will be able to nudge
pop's higher. A cold front will cross the region at some point
Wednesday morning into the afternoon. We then will monitor for some
lake effect showers for Wednesday night.

Monday will be the warmest day of the long term with highs in the
mid to upper 80s. Slightly cooler Tuesday with the extra cloud cover
and showers around but still in the 80s. Cooler Wednesday with highs
dipping back into the 70s for most locations.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Weather will begin to slowly deteriorate overnight from
west to the central portions of the forecast area and
then into the rest of the area tomorrow. An occluded front
approach from the west and spread the showers and thunderstorms
into the forecast area. Will hold off on dropping ceilings
and visibilities into MVFR category for now as convection
is expected to be scattered across the area. Winds will
gradually shift around to the southeast overnight and southwest
tomorrow.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr possible Saturday.

Marine
The flow will turn to the south overnight ahead of next system.

Models in reasonable agreement with low tracking across the northern
lakes Thursday night dragging a cold front across lake erie. Choppy
conditions develop on the lake as the winds turn to the north to
northwest behind the front. For now will continue with 10 to 15
knots and 2 to 4 foot waves... But marginal small craft advisory is
not out of the question in the east. High pressure builds quickly
over the lake on Saturday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec lombardy
short term... Djb
long term... Mullen
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Djb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 75 mi54 min SSE 6 G 8 68°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.0)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 75 mi54 min SE 6 G 7 66°F 1017.9 hPa (+0.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 77 mi54 min 67°F 1018.7 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA77 mi63 minSSE 310.00 miFair65°F57°F76%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS5S3S5S5S5CalmSW3SW3NW6N8N8N8N10N8NE6NE7N6NE4CalmCalmS3CalmSE3
1 day agoS7S5S6S5S6S6S6S8SW7W9W8W9W7NW11NW8W8W7W7W4SW4SW3W3N4N3
2 days agoSE5S5S6S4E3CalmSW3CalmCalmN7N8N8N7N8N7N7N6N4N4CalmS3CalmS7S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.