Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North East, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:53PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 5:08 AM EST (10:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:55AMMoonset 7:33PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ169 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 347 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Today..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain showers after midnight. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LEZ169 Expires:201711211515;;735354 FZUS61 KCLE 210847 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 347 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure 29.10 inches will track to near James Bay late today forcing a cold front across Lake Erie tonight. A ridge 30.30 inches will move east across the lake Wednesday afternoon and evening. A warm front will move northeast across the lake Friday followed by a cold front Saturday. LEZ061-165>169-211515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East , PA
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location: 43.17, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 210843
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
343 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure north of lake superior will move eastward across
ontario today. A cold front extending south from the low will
move across the region Tuesday evening. High pressure will
take control of the region on Wednesday and persist into
Thursday night.

Near term through Wednesday
Gusty southwesterly winds will continue into the afternoon as we
await the arrival of a cold front. The cold front will cross the
are this evening. It should pick moisture up off of lake erie
with showers most numerous across NE oh NW pa generally from
cleveland to erie. Temperatures drop quickly in the wake of the
front with rain changing over to snow after midnight. Any
accumulations will be on the light side. The greatest
accumulations may be an inch or 2 across the hills of NW pa,
generally from edinboro to wattsburg. High pressure will take
control of the area by Wednesday afternoon with any lake effect
snow showers across NW pa ending.

It will be warm today with highs 50 to 55. Cooler on Wednesday
with highs dipping back to the middle 30s.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
Surface high pressure will be in control from Wednesday night
through Friday. Skies will initially be partly cloudy Wednesday
night, but as more and more of the moisture gets scoured out
Thursday into Friday, skies will become mostly clear. The one
exception will be across extreme northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania where the clouds will persist a bit longer. Overall the
weather looks benign for thanksgiving day with southwest winds
around 10 to 15 mph and high temperatures in the upper 30s to near
40, except the middle 30s across inland northwest pennsylvania.

Clouds will begin to increase from northwest to southeast Friday
evening into Friday night ahead of an approaching trough and
associated cold front. With the frontal passage holding off until
Friday night highs will be able to rise into the lower 40s across
inland northwest pennsylvania and the middle to upper 40s elsewhere.

There won't be a ton of moisture available ahead of this cold front,
so just how widespread the precipitation will be is still a bit of a
question. Currently have widespread chance pops across the region
with some likely pops over part of lake erie. The best chances for
precipitation will be across northern areas. Precipitation is
expected to remain in the form of rain through Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Monday
Rain showers will be ongoing across the far eastern part of the
forecast area Saturday morning in the wake of the cold front. A
secondary cold front will filter in the colder air Saturday
afternoon. Winds will initially be out of the west-southwest
Saturday morning but will turn around to the northwest by late
Saturday evening into Saturday night as a large upper-level trough
becomes anchored over the region. This will kick off the lake-effect
snow machine with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -10c by
Saturday night. Precipitation should transition from a mix over to
all snow at some point Saturday night.

On and off lake-effect snow is then expected to continue from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Multiple short wave troughs
will round the base of the larger trough with the lake-effect snow
bands moving around with the passage of each short wave. Some
accumulating snow is expected across the snowbelt as there will be
ample moisture available within the snow growth zone, inversion
heights topping out around 10k feet, a lake surface to 850mb delta t
of around 20c, and little directional shear. Still too far out to
get into any more specifics at this point.

The lake-effect snow should start coming to an end Monday as a large
ridge begins to move in from the west and a surface high moves in
from the southwest. This will back winds around to the west by
Monday afternoon and the southwest by Monday night. The combination
of the upper-level ridge and high pressure should make for dry
conditions once the lake-effect snow ends Monday with dry weather
continuing into Tuesday.

A bit of a roller coaster ride is in store for the temperatures
through the long term. Highs Saturday will be in the mid to upper
40s prior to the passage of the secondary cold front. Highs will
generally be around freezing Sunday and only a smidge warmer Monday.

As warm air advection returns Monday night into Tuesday highs will
rise back into the middle 40s for Tuesday. Low temperatures will be
in the 20s throughout the long term.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Strong low level jet moving across the region. This has allowed
for a decent setup for low level wind shear. Have placed this
mention at all TAF sites with surface wind gusts under 25 knots.

Looks like southwesterly winds around 2000 feet will be 45 to
maybe 50 knots. The gusty winds will continue through the
afternoon with several locations seeing wind gusts touch 30 to
35 knots. Winds shift to the northwest in the wake of the cold
front and decrease slightly.

Otherwise we will await the arrival of a cold front. Current
thinking is that the cold front crosses the area during the
evening with a period of showers. The better chances of showers
will be downwind of lake erie from cleveland to erie. MVFR
conditions are expected with the showers. The MVFR conditions
will persist into the overnight hours as temperatures drop. A
short period of lake effect snow will be possible across the
snowbelt of NE oh NW pa. Away from this area ceilings will
slowly lift and dissipate.

Outlook... Non-vfr conditions will likely linger across NE oh nw
pa into Wednesday evening. The next chance for non-vfr
conditions looks like it will arrive with a cold front on
Saturday.

Marine
Small craft advisories remain in effect for the entire lake this
morning as strong southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots continue. Winds
may increase a touch more later this morning into early this
afternoon before they veer around to the west by this evening and
the northwest by tonight. The small craft advisory for the western
basin has been extended through late this evening as winds will
continue to remain around 20 to 25 knots through the entire period
with waves increasing to 3 to 5 feet for a brief period this evening
into early tonight as winds turn around to the northwest. As winds
turn around to the northwest waves will increase everywhere along
the lakeshore so the small craft advisory for the rest of the lake
continues through Wednesday.

Winds will gradually diminish to light west and southwest by
Wednesday night. Southwest flow will return and increase Thursday,
diminish slightly Thursday night, and strengthen once again for
Friday into the weekend. A small craft advisory will likely be
needed during this time period.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm est Wednesday for lez145>149.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lez142>144.

Synopsis... Mullen
near term... Mullen
short term... Mottice
long term... Mottice
aviation... Mullen
marine... Mottice


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 75 mi68 min S 8.9 G 16 43°F 1011.1 hPa (-1.1)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 75 mi68 min S 14 G 20 47°F 1008.8 hPa (-0.7)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 77 mi50 min 45°F 1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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5
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Last
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W21
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G28
W18
W15
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W17
SW27
G38
SW25
G37
SW31
SW24
G30
SW27
G35
SW22
G28
S17
G22
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G23
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G24
SW18
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G23
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G26
S12
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G23
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G23
1 day
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NW13
G17
NW19
G30
NW18
G23
W14
G19
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G20
W18
G23
W15
G19
W15
W12
G16
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G21
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G30
W21
G27
NW20
G26
NW17
NW14
G17
NW16
G22
NW14
G17
W17
W15
G20
W19
G24
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G25
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G27
W18
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W20
2 days
ago
S14
G19
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G23
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G21
S16
G20
S14
G18
S14
G18
S12
G16
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G19
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G17
SE8
G11
S4
G7
E4
E6
G9
E7
NE5
NE1
S2
NW13
G16
NW25
G32
NW23
G31
NW20
NW15
G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA77 mi17 minS 18 G 2810.00 miFair and Breezy43°F19°F40%1011 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW15
G24
SW10S13SW16
G26
S14S14
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S15S15S16
G21
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G23
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G24
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1 day agoNW17
G30
NW18
G28
W20
G26
W15
G24
NW10
G23
W14
G23
W13
G22
W15
G20
W12
G22
W12
G23
NW16
G22
W12
G20
W17
G25
NW19
G32
W14
G29
W16
G24
NW14
G23
W12
G21
W17
G26
W19
G28
W13
G21
W16
G30
W12
G25
W12
G22
2 days agoS15
G21
S17
G26
S15
G23
S14
G21
S9S14
G20
S14
G20
S13S11S13
G21
S12S8S13
G23
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G24
SW10W8
G16
W10W18
G27
NW18
G28
NW20
G31
NW19
G28
NW17
G29
NW18
G30

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.