Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North East, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 7:39PM Thursday March 23, 2017 4:12 AM EDT (08:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:45AMMoonset 1:55PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ169 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 349 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Today..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 10 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers after midnight. Rain showers likely late. Waves 2 feet or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning...then rain showers. A chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ169 Expires:201703231430;;939179 FZUS61 KCLE 230749 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 349 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE 30.60 INCHES OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL SAG NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. LOW PRESSURE 29.80 INCHES WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE 29.80 INCHES WILL FOLLOW AND ALSO TRACK NEAR LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY NIGHT. LEZ061-166>169-231430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East , PA
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location: 43.17, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 230518
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
118 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the northern lakes will move SE across the lakes
and move off the SE coast Thursday night. This will allow a warm
front to lift NE of the area early Friday. An upper level low
will drift across the central lakes this weekend.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
No weather to speak of tonight... As high pressure will shift
across the forecast area. The high centered over southern lake
superior will reach central pa by daybreak. Expect temps to dip
into the teens tonight... With a few single digits. Will likely
be under and not over guidance values with winds subsiding after
dark. Other than bumping up sky coverage to account for the thin
cirrus across the west, no other changes were made with this mid
evening update.

Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday night/
Models continue in good agreement moving the high off the east coast
Thursday night. This will allow a warm front to lift NE across the
forecast area Thursday night. All three of the models produce rain
showers with the front itself... But QPF varies significantly. Leaned
toward the ECMWF as it was the driest of the 3. And since models
tend to over forecast precip with warm fronts. Models continue to
lift the front north of the area Friday morning allowing area to
come into the warm sector. This will allow temps to warm into the
60s this weekend. Best chance for widespread rain showers still
appears to be Saturday night into Sunday.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
Active long term period begins Sunday with low pressure moving into
the great lakes region from the west. Models continue to show a
strong signal for rain much of the day, so went with blanket
categorical pops across the area Monday. Also mentioned chance of
thunder for Sunday and Sunday night, as model soundings indicating
some instability in the warm sector across the region, peaking
around 00z Monday. The low will depart east of the area Monday, but
precip chances will quickly return Monday night as a phasing
northern stream trough dives east southeast through the great lakes,
and a shearing out trough moves through the ohio valley. Continued
with high chance to low likely pops Monday night and Tuesday,
tapering to slight chance Tuesday night. Another system is progged
to eject out of the southern plains toward the great lakes late next
week. ECMWF much faster bringing precip into the area by Wednesday
evening, while gem and GFS much slower/deeper with the low, not
bringing precip into the region until at least Thursday
night/Friday. Will go ahead with a dry forecast for Wednesday and
Wednesday night with the widely varying model solutions.

Temperatures will be above normal through the period.

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/
High pressure at the surface will move east of the area today
allowing a warm front to move northeast across the area later
tonight. This feature will begin to spread some high clouds and
then middle level clouds into the region. Over the western
portions of the area, ceilings will drop to around 5000 feet
with a chance for some showers toward the end of the period.

Cleveland will see some showers after the 06z time period with
ceilings dropping to around 2500 feet. Winds should be light
less than 10 knots through the day becoming southerly.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr Friday morning and again Saturday
lingering into Sunday.

Marine
A large area of arctic high pressure will continue to sink southeast
across lake erie tonight and Thursday. Winds will generally be east-
northeast 10 knots or less through Thursday. A warm front will lift
north across the lake on Friday, with southwest winds increasing to
10-15 knots. Low pressure will track towards the lake Saturday and
Sunday and move across the lake on Monday. The aforementioned warm
front will become nearly stationary Saturday and Sunday just north
of the lake with east/southeast winds 10-20 knots at times. Winds
will veer southwest Monday after the low moves through.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Djb
near term... Djb
short term... Djb
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Greenawalt/kosarik


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 75 mi72 min N 8.9 G 9.9 26°F 1034.9 hPa (+0.6)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 75 mi72 min N 5.1 G 8.9 25°F 1034.2 hPa (+0.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 77 mi42 min 22°F 1034.2 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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N1
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA77 mi21 minSSE 310.00 miFair19°F12°F77%1035.5 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13
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N12N9N105NE6N4W5W6W5S4SW5SW5S53S3CalmS3
1 day agoNW3S4SW3S3W6SW4W10W8W10W9W8W11
G17
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2 days agoS6S4SE7SE4S3S7S10SW11S6S7S7S4N3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmS3S5S5CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.