Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North East, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:56PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:04 AM EST (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:59PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ169 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 941 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Rain with snow likely late this morning, then rain this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ169 Expires:201811182115;;492893 FZUS61 KCLE 181441 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 941 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A stationary front will remain in the vicinity of Lake Erie this morning until low pressure 30.10 inches moves across the Ohio Valley today. High pressure 30.20 inches will expand across the southern lakes later today through Monday. Low pressure 29.90 inches will move east across the northern lakes to lower Ontario, Canada Monday forcing a cold front across Lake Erie early Tuesday morning. A second low, also 29.90 inches, will take a similar track with a cold front crossing Lake Erie early Wednesday morning. High pressure 30.60 inches will move southeast through central Ontario, Canada Thursday to Maine by Friday morning. LEZ061-165>169-182115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East , PA
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location: 43.17, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 181442
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
942 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will slide northeast through the ohio valley
today. High pressure will expand east across the southern great
lakes region tonight, shifting east on Monday. Meanwhile a low
pressure system will develop across the upper great lakes on
Monday, pulling a cold front east across the area early
Tuesday.

Near term through Monday
Minor changes to the forecast with this update. Biggest change
is hanging on to likely pops a bit longer later this afternoon
and evening as precipitation will be slow to traverse the
forecast area. Otherwise, temperatures and the remainder of the
forecast look on track.

Previous discussion...

regional radars show a light band of snow extending from near
chicago across southern lower michigan early this morning. Water
vapor imagery highlights this area of moisture and lift ahead of a
shortwave trough that will slide across the southern great lakes
today. Snow will start to increase in the toledo area soon and is
expected to continue through mid-morning, bringing a light coating
of snow to the area. Mid-level dry air is in place ahead of this
feature and will limit precipitation for much of the area until the
wave approaches this afternoon. The highest pops today will be
across the north, with most areas expecting a rain snow mix or even
just rain as temperatures warm both at the surface and aloft. Many
areas can expect highs in the upper 30s as a weak wave of low
pressure slides northeast through the ohio valley.

By this evening, precipitation in NW pa will transition to snow for
a few hours with light accumulations of generally around an inch
expected for inland locations. These area will be just cool enough
to see it stick, at least to grassy or elevated surfaces.

Precipitation will come to an end as this wave quickly departs to
the east. The exception may be downwind of lake erie where some
light precipitation remains possible through the overnight. Pops
will be low but can not rule out a little drizzle or possibly even
freezing drizzle where temps are cool enough across inland NW pa.

High pressure will build overhead tonight into Monday. Models
soundings indicate we will struggle to erode a stratus deck on
Monday, despite drying aloft. Partial clearing is possible in nw
ohio before high cloud increase ahead of the next system. Winds
will develop out of the southwest on Monday with highs in the
upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
Deep upper level winter trough continues across the entire eastern
half of the lower 48 states while major amplification of the upper
level ridge takes place in the western united states. The upper
level ridge trough couplet remain nearly stationary through
Wednesday night. This overall pattern will keep cold air advection
persistent through mid week. Upper level trough will remain in the
positive tilted formation through mid week with weak cyclogenesis
taking place at the surface. The surface low is progged to move
east across the lower great lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This
feature will bring a swath of snow to the local area during this
time and then exit to the east Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some
lake enhancement will take place over the northeast snowbelt Monday
night into Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build slowly into the
middle mississippi valley region by Wednesday and extend a ridge
northeast into the forecast area. This will bring a return to fair
weather to much of the local area just in time for the thanksgiving
holiday travel. The exception will be the northeast where some
residual lake effect will persist into early Wednesday night. 850 mb
temperatures will drop from -4 c down to -8 c by Tuesday and hang
there through Wednesday with yet a further drop down to around -10 c
by Wednesday night. Therefore, temperatures through this period will
remain in the 30s for highs in the cold air advection pattern with
lows in the 20s.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
Finally, the upper level begins to become more progressive as upper
level trough gets the heave ho by the west coast upper level ridge.

The ridge moves quickly east across the lower 48 states forcing
surface high pressure to build east to the east coast by
thanksgiving day. This will bring a return southerly component to
the winds by thanksgiving day through Friday. This will also bring
a warmer surge of air to the local area by Friday and Saturday. In
the mean time, as cold pool of -10 c 850 mb air moves east and out
of the area thanksgiving day into Thursday night, expecting highs to
be only in the middle 20s in the east and lower to middle 30s over
the rest of the area. Overnight lows will dip into the teens east
and middle to upper 20s west. A warm front with associated moisture
will lift northeast across the area Saturday and will bring a swath
of rain snow showers to the area Friday night and showers for
Saturday.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Regional radars show a band of snow across NRN indiana southern
michigan NW ohio early this morning. Toledo will see ifr
conditions in snow through around 16z when temperatures will
warm and precip will start to mix with rain and shift east.

Most sites will likely receive light rain possibly mixing with
snow this afternoon for a couple hours as an area of low
pressure moves northeast through the ohio valley. Conditions
will deteriorate from west to east today with most sites
eventually dropping to ifr. Some improvement to MVFR ceilings
can be expected by late tonight. Winds will generally be light
today, having some easterly component this morning, then shifting
around to northwest by late afternoon evening.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely Sunday and Tuesday.

Marine
Winds and waves continue to slowly diminish subside in the wake
of a weak trough cold front but the small craft advisory will
need to go just a bit longer. That trough will buckle north
across the lake as low pressure moves up the ohio valley Sunday.

This will be followed by another trough Sunday night and high
pressure Monday. Low pressure moving across the great lakes will
sweep a cold front across the lake early Tuesday with a second
system moving across early wedneday. High pressure will be
centered north of the lake for thanksgiving. Small craft
advisory will likely show up again for Wednesday into Thursday.

The Wednesday low has trended a little stronger with a bit more
cold air and have brought wind waves up.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec sefcovic
short term... Lombardy
long term... Lombardy
aviation... Kec
marine... Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 75 mi64 min S 5.1 G 8 35°F 1025.7 hPa (-1.0)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 75 mi64 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 34°F 1025.7 hPa (-0.7)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 77 mi34 min 33°F 1025.6 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA77 mi73 minSE 810.00 miOvercast36°F28°F76%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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NW76NW6N3N4E4SE4SE4S4SE4S6S6S5SE6SE6SE8Calm
1 day agoSW16
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2 days agoSE5SE6SE12
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SE8CalmS5CalmSE8SE11S7CalmS7SW5SW8SW8SW9SW10SW16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.