Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cleveland, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:09PM Monday October 23, 2017 2:07 AM EDT (06:07 UTC) Moonrise 9:56AMMoonset 7:51PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 134 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 60 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201710222130;;246625 FZUS51 KBUF 221734 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 134 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-222130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, NY
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location: 43.18, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 230158
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
958 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a
large area of high pressure. A cold front will approach the area
Monday night bringing rain, gusty winds, and cooler conditions
for much of the rest of the week.

Near term through Monday night
10 pm update... No major changes to forecast. Stratus from marine
layer already starting to develop over new jersey and still
expect this to expand north into the CWA overnight.

Previous discussion... As the eastern u.S. Ridge finally breaks
down, a complex system over the midwest will push a strong cold
front toward the area. The system represents the opening event
in an developing pattern change that will eventually result in a
large trough over the eastern part of the country. It will be a
messy transition as the ridge is slow to give up, and multiple
waves rotate around the trough as it settles in. For the near
term, a strong short wave developing over the tennessee valley
deepens as it lifts north in the central lakes, briefly delaying
the approaching front. This should delay the arrival of the
showers in the western zones until late Monday evening, with the
front passing the central sections and east toward 12z Tuesday,
ahead of the front, marine layer is pulled in from the southeast
stabilizing the low levels, and perhaps bringing a bit of
drizzle. It will also protect much of the area from stronger
winds zipping along above the boundary layer. Best chance for
seeing the gusts will be with any weak convection that develops
immediately along the front. There is some instability aloft,
but convection would be mostly triggered by the strong dynamics
of the system.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
230 pm update...

this will be the most active period of the week as a strong
cold front moves through the CWA followed by an upper level
trough. Model trends from yesterday; front moves into the west
earlier but has slowed down the exit as the trough GOES negative
tilted. Heavy rain axis has shifted back into the far southeast
which includes sullivan county ny and pike county pa. Rainfall
amounts around 2 inches but amounts taper off quickly to the
west. An inch in scranton and less for elmira, binghamton,
syracuse. Pwats up to 1.5 inches with the strong and deep south
flow of tropical moisture ahead of the front and trough.

Training of showers and possible thunderstorms is possible in
the far southeast as the front slows with the short wave outruns
it. This and some orographics into the southern catskills and
poconos could drop higher rainfall amounts. Some flash flood
potential but need 2 or more inches in an hour and 3 or more
inches in 3 hours. High temps not much above the high dewpoints
and only 65 to 70.

Wind fields are strong at mid and upper levels. Instability
weak with maybe a hundred CAPE in all but far east where it
could be slightly higher. Thunderstorms possible right with
front and a line of showers with heavy rain. Thunderstorms could
mix down some stronger winds during the day Tuesday.

Late Tuesday into Tuesday night with the front slowed in the
far east, a surface low moves nne along the front bringing a
batch of heavy rain. Models have moved the heavy rain back to
the west to the edge of our cwa. Front clears our area around
00z but still in the hudson valley Wednesday morning so heavier
rain will not end in far east until late Tuesday night. Rest of
cwa will have only light scattered rain showers. Low
temperatures in the 40s behind the front.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
230 pm update...

more of an unsettled pattern than of late. The upper level
trough will keep some rain showers here into Thursday.

Temperatures slightly below normal.

High pressure builds in Friday from the southeast u.S.

Temperatures Friday into Saturday at or slightly above normal.

Beyond that some uncertainty on timing and strength of the next
cold front and upper level trough moving out of the plains. For
now looks like showers move in late Saturday with the slow
moving front and remain into Monday. Temperatures near normal.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
A marine layer is forecast to sneak into the avp terminal late
overnight and possibly extend into bgm for a brief period.

Ceilings under the marine layer will drop to around 1500-2500
feet, with visibilities between 3sm and 6sm.

A strong jet aloft will cause llws conditions from kelm up to
ksyr early Monday morning.

Surface winds will increase to around 10-15 knots on Monday with
higher gusts.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Restrictions likely in rain.

Wednesday and Thursday... Restrictions possible in showers.

Friday...VFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Dgm
near term... Dgm pcf
short term... Tac
long term... Tac
aviation... Djp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 41 mi49 min SSE 9.9 G 16 63°F 1021.6 hPa45°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 94 mi67 min S 9.9 G 15 64°F 1021.3 hPa (-1.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 95 mi49 min 64°F 1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY16 mi73 minSSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F44°F50%1022.5 hPa
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY23 mi74 minSSE 510.00 miFair53°F46°F77%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E3E4E3E3E3CalmE4E3E3S7N6S8S11SE6E4E6E6SE4CalmE4S5S9S9
G20
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE4E3E4E4CalmCalmCalm3N3NE5E5E4CalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4
2 days agoW7W6SW8W7W9W8W7W7W7W8W10NW9W8W8W7W5CalmCalmE3CalmE3E5E5E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.