Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 12:23 AM   Moonset 8:42 AM

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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 402 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers this morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves around 1 foot. Wednesday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 291350 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 950 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A nearly stationary boundary across the region today will move northward as a warm front early Tuesday before the main cold frontal passage Tuesday night. These features will likely bring another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. High pressure builds in for the middle of the next week followed by a cold frontal passage at the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
940 AM Update...

Valley fog is clearing up across the region and should be clear in the next hour. Low clouds and patchy fog remain north of the warm front across the northern Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley. This should hang around into the late morning/early afternoon hours. Overall, the warm front is expected to remain stationary across CNY, with clouds to the north and clear and warm to the south. A few isolated showers and storms should develop this afternoon across the Twin Tiers, riding the edge of the ridge moving from WNW to ESE. These showers should dissipate by the evening hours. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

630 AM Update...
Added some showers to the forecast with the sunrise update through mid morning along and north of NY Thruway corridor as a batch of showers moves east of Lake Ontario.
Otherwise forecast on track.

300 AM Update...
A stationary frontal boundary will lead to a fairly large temperatures spread today with highs ranging from the low 80's in the Wyoming Valley to the mid 60's in Oneida county. This will be in large part to stubborn low clouds and fog along and north of the warm front which may take till this afternoon to completely burn off in spots.

Still can not rule out a spotty shower or thunderstorm through tonight with the frontal boundary. However, the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity looks to be Tuesday afternoon and evening. PW values are trending a little higher into the 1-1.5 inch range coupled with Parallel corfidi vectors indicating some potential for training. Fairly fast storm motions should keep any flash flood threat fairly isolated.
Still a few heavy downpours could produce local urban and small stream flood issues.

A narrow CAPE axis modeled by both the HRRR 00Z and Hi- res NAM 00z of 1000-1500 J/KG surface CAPE is somewhat concerning Tuesday afternoon and early evening. This given about 30 knots of 0-6KM Bulk shear is modeled as well across central NY and NE PA. This would allow for some clusters of thunderstorms to produce a few microbursts (from a limited amount of mid-level dry air) and have some organization as they push southeast. Coordination with the SPC there is some concern about the instability advection into the region. This may be somewhat similar to an event not long ago at this stage where the models may be overdoing the moisture advection and instability. That will be something to monitor over the next day or so.

Lows tonight look to be on the muggy side only getting down to around 60 with highs in the 70's again on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
305 AM Update...

Upper level trough with a surface low passes through the region Tuesday night. This provides enough moisture and lift to allow rain showers to continue into the overnight hours. Instability parameters begin to fall off soon after sunset, although can't rule out the chance of thunderstorms lasting into the early part of the evening as elevated instability lingers over northeast PA. Temperatures will remain relatively mild Tuesday night with lows ranging in the 50s for most of the region.

A few rain showers linger into Wednesday morning over the eastern portion of our region as upper level trough slowly shifts eastwards.
Ridge begins to build in Wednesday afternoon with a drier air mass moving in cutting off any remaining showers. Model guidance agrees with the timing of this system making an exit. Northerly flow continues for one more night as our region will be on the front edge of the ridge. Otherwise a calm night is in store with light winds and temperatures ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
305 AM Update...

Southerly flow returns to the region on Thursday with high pressure building in at the surface. Therefore a brief dry period works its way into the region as ridge strengthens. Rain showers and thunderstorm chances return Friday evening into Saturday as an upper trough over the central US begins to advance eastwards.
Regardless ridge remains over our region with a first wave of moisture advecting into the area Friday night. Second wave moves in on Saturday setting off another round of showers. Model guidance begins to diverge for the latter part of the period.
Despite this guidance does hint at another system over the northern plains swinging into the northeast sometime Sunday night through Monday. With the ridge in place during most of this period temperatures will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s during the day. Overnight lows will remain relatively mild falling into the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Variable conditions likely till about 14Z at all TAF sites with any restrictions lifting to VFR. Continued MVFR stratus for most NY terminals till about 15-20Z. Mainly VFR tonight, watching the potential for another stratus deck to move westward into KAVP and KBGM as well after 06Z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Any morning restrictions lifting by 16Z. VFR then some restrictions likely in rain showers and thunderstorms, between 18Z and 00Z Wednesday. Stratus and fog then possible after 00Z Wednesday.

Wednesday...Lingering morning clouds and restrictions possible, becoming VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday..Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t'storms possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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