Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lewiston, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:10PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:21 PM EST (19:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:19AMMoonset 5:00PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 931 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers late.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Saturday night.
LOZ030 Expires:201801162200;;535754 FZUS51 KBUF 161432 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 931 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-162200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewiston, NY
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location: 43.19, -79.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 161755
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1255 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Light snow will fall across portions of western and north central
new york through tomorrow as a weak storm system passes through.

Colder air behind this system will generate light lake effect snow
east of the lakes Wednesday night through Friday before a pronounced
day to day warming trend commences for the start of the weekend and
into early next week.

Near term through tonight
A weak clipper low is nearing the western end of lake ontario this
afternoon. Flow remains light around this low... With snow most
pronounce across the so. Tier and into the southern genesee valley.

A morning land breeze brought a band of snow over lake ontario that
has pretty much remained over the warmer lake this afternoon with
the light winds.

Snow associated with the clipper system will taper off from west to
east through the day. A cold front has entered wny this afternoon.

Colder SW flow will move over a partially frozen lake erie and a
lake response will begin this evening. Inversion heights increase to
5-8k feet and lake effect snow showers are expected from buffalo
metro south to the southern tier. Due to the partially frozen lake
erie, snow accumulations will be lackluster. An inch or two is
expected into Wednesday morning. As the cold front makes its way
across lake ontario, flow will be sw-w over the lake. Due to a wide
open lake and similar inversion heights, snow showers will likely be
more intense than off lake erie into Wednesday morning. A band will
likely form across the tug hill plateau region resulting in 1-3
inches into Wednesday morning.

As the cold front moves eastward late this afternoon and into the
evening, snow will develop to the south and east as a coastal low
develops late tonight. The forecast area will be on the western
fringe of the baroclinic leaf and snow will likely skirt the
southern tier this evening, and move northward across the western
finger lakes and southern tug hill plateau region late tonight. Up
to an inch of accumulation is expected before the snow moves
eastward towards new england.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and tonight with high
temperatures in the 20s and low temperatures in the single digits to
teens.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
Synoptic snows will be coming to an end as forcing and deeper
moisture pivot northeast Wednesday morning. Lake effect parameters
will briefly gain an uptick behind the system Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Limited open water on lake erie will greatly limit
lake effect potential. Accumulations will be limited to no more than
inch or so Wednesday. A few flurries or light snow showers may
linger into Wednesday night near buffalo, with little or no
accumulation expected. A better lake effect focus during this time
will be off lake ontario with much more open water. Shear profiles
suggesting bands will be moving enough to limit amounts in any one
location to no more than 3 inches.

What remains of the lake effect will diminish to scattered snow
showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Outside of lake effect areas,
Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly dry for the rest of the region
with variable amounts of clouds. Expect highs Wednesday to be in the
lower to mid 20s in most areas, with upper teens across the higher
terrain. By Thursday highs will recover into the mid to upper 20s.

Thursday night and Friday, another, well-defined, mid-level wave is
set pass just to the north of the region. Moisture will be limited
with this system, but will still bring an increase in clouds and
also provide a little better environment for lake effect snow again
east of lake ontario. This may produce some additional minor
accumulations centered on the tug hill region. This system will move
out quickly on Friday with any snow ending east of lake ontario.

Temperatures will continue an upward trend, with highs in the lower
mid 30s by Friday afternoon.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Another mid-winter thaw will be in the works as we move into the
weekend. A surface low is currently forecast to pass by to our north
as it tracks from northern ontario Friday night to labrador by
Sunday. Relatively warm and moist gomex-sourced air will be drawn
across our region and into this low, with a warm front crossing the
forecast area Friday into Friday night. While a few light snow
showers may be possible as the front crosses the area, the bulk of
the vertical forcing will remain well to our north across canada,
and as a result pops should remain low into Saturday. Temperatures
should gradually rise through the 20s Friday night, with readings
cracking 40 degrees across many locales by Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to rise and moisture will gradually
increase across the area as we move into the second half of the
weekend as southerly flow and gomex moisture return strengthens in
response to lee-side cyclone development across the central plains.

Temperatures will climb well into the 40s, and some areas may flirt
with 50 Sunday afternoon, as warm air surges north across the region
in advance of the deepening cyclone moving into the midwest. The
warming temperatures will be accompanied by increasing clouds
however, as this moisture deepens across the region. Models
currently indicate that we should see a more substantial chance
for rain moving into far western new york by late Sunday night,
as the low-level jet associated with the low approaches the
area. Rainy and blustery conditions can be expected on Monday,
as the aforementioned low cuts across the central great lakes.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
For the 18z tafs mainly MVFRVFR flight conditions are found. A cold
front is edging its way across the region this afternoon, and a wave
along this front will bring snow back into our region from the
south... With ifr conditions most likely across kjhw kroc... And
possibly as far west as kbuf kiag. This system will pass through
tonight and tomorrow morning. Light synoptic flow will continue
light winds across the region through this TAF cycle. These winds
will increase some from the west tomorrow afternoon as cold air
advects into the region.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday... Localized MVFR to ifr
possible in scattered to occasionally more numerous lake effect snow
showers east of the lakes... With mainlyVFR conditions elsewhere.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Sunday... MVFR with a chance of light rain (mixing with snow east of
lake ontario).

Marine
A weakening area of low pressure will cross our region today. This
will result in southerly winds less than 10 knots. A cold front will
move across lake erie by this afternoon and lake ontario by
Wednesday morning. Winds will increase out of the SW behind the cold
front. Winds will remain below small craft thresholds.

On Wednesday high pressure will ridge across the ohio valley...

while low pressure meanders its way across james bay. Lingering
cold air and the tightening pressure gradient in between these
two systems will bring increasing winds and waves to those portions
of lakes erie and ontario that are still ice free... And as such will
likely necessitate another round of small craft advisories.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Hsk thomas
short term... Tma
long term... Wood
aviation... Thomas
marine... Hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 13 mi81 min WNW 7 G 8.9 27°F 1027.8 hPa (-1.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 17 mi51 min 25°F 1027.6 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 30 mi51 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 23°F 1026.9 hPa17°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 32 mi81 min SW 6 G 9.9 27°F 1029.1 hPa (-1.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 37 mi51 min 22°F 1027.2 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 48 mi81 min W 12 G 13 22°F 1028.8 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi28 minSSW 129.00 miOvercast27°F16°F63%1029.2 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E6SE6E6E7E7SE6SE6SE5SE3S3S3S6S5S6S6S5SW6SW6SW10SW10SW10SW5SW12
1 day agoSW5S3SE6SE5SE4SE5SE5SE4SE5E4E4E6E6E6E7E8E8E8E10E8E6SE5NE4E6
2 days agoNW12NW12NW8NW10NW11NW12NW9NW8N6N5NW3CalmSW4W6W5W3SW6S6CalmS3S6W8SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.