Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:00AM||Sunset 7:20PM||Wednesday September 19, 2018 10:11 PM EDT (02:11 UTC)||Moonrise 3:45PM||Moonset 12:31AM||Illumination 76%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewiston, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
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area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
747 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
High pressure over eastern quebec this evening will move across the
canadian maritimes overnight and Thursday morning. A warm front will
then gradually push north across our region Thursday afternoon and
evening... But its only impact will be an increase in cloud cover.
Friday will be quite unsettled as a powerful storm system moving
into quebec will generate strong winds across parts of our region. A
cold front associated with this storm system will not only introduce
a much cooler airmass for the weekend... But it could also generate
strong thunderstorms as it moves through late on Friday.
Near term through Thursday
A surface high over eastern quebec and ridging aloft will support
dry weather tonight. Some high clouds from convection across the mid-
west will spill over the upper level ridge late tonight with these
most prevalent near and north of lake ontario. There still will be
ample opportunity for radiational cooling with overnight lows mostly
in the lower to mid 50s. Across the north country and western
southern tier these high clouds will arrive later with virtually no
impact on nighttime cooling. In these locations lows will be in the
mid to upper 40s with valley fog again likely in the southern tier
Strengthening low pressure will track across the upper plains
states on Thursday with an associated warm front extending
eastward from this system. For our area, the front will be ill-
defined, with the stronger winds and deeper moisture to our
north and west. As a result, 12z model consensus has trended
considerably drier than previous runs with Thursday now looking
to be a pretty much dry day for our region. There still will be
considerably mid and high clouds, but only a slight chance of a
stray shower with this boundary. Otherwise, highs will be in the
70s with the warmest conditions to the south and west with the
strongest mid- level warm air advection.
Short term Thursday night through Sunday
Thursday night the warm front will continue to move northeast
across ontario and quebec, with the trailing weaker southeastern
extent crossing our area. Model guidance has backed way off on
rainfall potential with the warm front since yesterday.
Isentropic upglide and somewhat deeper moisture may produce a
few scattered showers east of lake ontario, otherwise mainly dry
conditions are expected. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s
across western ny, and upper 50s to lower 60s east of lake
ontario. These lows will likely occur early in the night, with
rising temperatures late as southerly flow increases.
Following the warm frontal passage, our area will be solidly in the
warm sector for much of Friday. A few showers may linger across the
eastern lake ontario region Friday morning. Latest guidance,
especially the higher resolution NAM based guidance, also suggests a
few showers developing from the western southern tier into the
western finger lakes and central ny for a few hours Friday morning.
Once these two areas of showers pass, the entire region will be dry
through at least early to mid afternoon in the warm sector. 850mb
temps around +16c to +17c will support highs in the mid 80s at lower
elevations, with some upper 80s across the genesee valley. Much of
the higher terrain will top out in the lower 80s. Strong southwest
flow off both lakes will keep the buffalo and watertown areas a few
Speaking of the wind, a strong 55+ knot low level jet in the warm
sector will cross the eastern great lakes Friday. Ongoing warm
advection and general weak synoptic scale ascent will likely prevent
full mixing of the strong momentum from aloft. That said, it still
appears there will be the potential for advisory level gusts to
around 50 mph in the normal areas northeast of the lakes where
stronger winds are channelled, including the niagara frontier to
near rochester, and possibly jefferson county. Elsewhere, gusts of
30-40 mph are expected.
The other wind concern is the potential for severe thunderstorms
late Friday. Despite the very warm temperatures and surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s, instability will be somewhat tempered by
the very warm mid levels and associated poor mid level lapse rates.
Nonetheless, expect SBCAPE to reach 500-1000j kg in the warm sector.
Large scale forcing and convergence will increase late in the day as
the surface cold front and mid level trough approach, and deep layer
shear will be very strong. The sufficient instability combined with
very strong wind fields and increasing large scale forcing suggests
the potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into short bowing
segments, with an associated risk of damaging winds.
Expect initial thunderstorm development just ahead of the cold front
upstream across southern ontario by mid afternoon. Latest higher
resolution guidance such as the 12km NAM and 3km NAM suggest
thunderstorms will also develop on the lake terrain generated
convergence zone from the western southern tier across the western
finger lakes to oswego county and the southern tug hill during the
mid to late afternoon. Meanwhile areas northeast of lakes erie and
ontario will stay lake shadowed until late afternoon. The cold front
pushes southeast across the area early Friday evening, with
accompanying showers and scattered thunderstorms crossing the area.
The frontal push should be strong enough to overcome the weakening
lake shadows in the evening and produce showers and scattered
The cold front will sweep southeast of the area by later Friday
evening, taking most of the shower activity with it. Northwesterly
flow will usher in much cooler air, with 850mb temperatures plunging
to around +5 or +6c. This will promote lake effect upslope
cloudiness southeast of the lakes, with possibly just enough low-
level moisture left behind to produce a few scattered showers by
later Friday night through Saturday morning across these same areas.
Drier air will continue to build in through the day Saturday. This
combined with lowering inversion heights and diurnal influences will
quickly shut off any scattered showers by late Saturday morning,
while also slowly eroding away at the low-level cloud cover heading
into Saturday afternoon. Much cooler and drier air advecting into
the region behind the cold front will allow lows Friday night to
drop back into the much more comfortable 50s, with some upper 40s
for the higher terrain east of lake ontario. Daytime highs on
Saturday will struggle to climb above the lower to mid 60s, possibly
not getting out of the upper 50s across some of the higher terrain.
High pressure will settle overhead Saturday night into Sunday
morning, providing mainly clear to partly cloud skies. Lows Saturday
night will be cool, with upper 40s in most areas away from the
immediate lakeshores, and low to mid 40s east of lake ontario. The
airmass will begin to recover Sunday, with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s. A weak cold front moving south across ontario and
quebec will wash out near lake ontario late in the day, producing
little more than scattered clouds.
Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Sunday night the core of strong canadian high pressure will slide
eastward across quebec province... While its southwestern extension
remains squarely draped across our forecast area. This will result
in continued dry and quiet weather... With overnight lows ranging
from the mid 40s across the north country to the lower 50s across the
lake plains of far western new york... Where a modest southeasterly
downslope flow will take shape.
Monday and Monday night the strong surface ridge will settle
southeastward across the canadian maritimes... With warm advection
and an attendant influx of moisture isentropic lift consequently
setting up across our region on a strengthening southeasterly to
southerly flow. As a result... Initially dry weather across our
region Monday morning should eventually give way to increasing
shower chances by later Monday afternoon or Monday night... With
the timing of this still in question given continued variability
in the medium range guidance. Given our continuity of a dry forecast
and a desire to avoid flip-flopping on pops... For now have elected
to keep things more optimistic and hold off on mentionable shower
chances until Monday night... When a surface warm front will also
push into our region and provide added lift. Otherwise... The steady
warm air advection regime will result in temperatures continuing to
recover back to around normal or slightly above normal levels... With
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday followed by lows ranging
through the 50s Monday night.
On Tuesday the warm advection pattern will continue in between
strong high pressure over the western atlantic and an elongated cold
frontal boundary slowly pushing eastward across the upper great
lakes. This will result in a continued general chance for showers...
with the best probabilities for these most likely lying out in
advance of the aforementioned warm front. Otherwise... 850 mb temps
pushing into the mid teens celsius will allow surface highs to climb
back into at least the lower to mid 70s areawide... With warmer
readings than this possible if breaks in the cloud cover shower
Tuesday night and Wednesday the aforementioned cold front should
slowly push eastward and across our region... Though this process
could be delayed somewhat further if (as per the latest gfs) a
secondary surface wave develops and ripples northeastward along
this boundary. Either way... This should result in continued higher-
end chances for showers and somewhat above normal temperatures
Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
High pressure over quebec will maintain fair dry weather across our
region tonight... With the majority of the TAF sites experiencing
continuedVFR conditions. The exception will be across parts of the
southern tier and finger lakes regions where some low stratus and
valley fog could result in MVFR to ifr conditions after 06z... And
especially between 09-13z.
On Thursday... A warm front will gradually push to the north across
our region. While this will be responsible for an increase in high
and mid level clouds... Any showers should stay north of the border.
Thursday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers.
Friday...VFR MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms. Windy with strong thunderstorms possible.
Saturday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers.
Sunday and Monday...VFR.
High pressure near the ontario quebec border will result in
negligible winds and waves through tonight. A warm front will
approach on Thursday with a southeast to easterly flow. This will
be modest with the exception of western lake ontario where a 15
knot flow will result in choppy conditions Thursday afternoon.
A deep storm system over lake superior Thursday night will track
across ontario on Friday. As a result... Southwest winds will freshen
across the lower great lakes with 30 knot winds anticipated on lake
ontario. Fairly widespread small craft advisories can be expected
late Thursday night through Friday.
Buf watches warnings advisories
near term... Apffel rsh
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Jjr
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY||13 mi||71 min||E 4.1 G 7||63°F||1019.3 hPa (+1.0)|
|45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby||13 mi||71 min||E 12 G 14||67°F||71°F||1 ft||1019.1 hPa (+0.7)|
|NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY||17 mi||41 min||62°F||1019.9 hPa|
|BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY||30 mi||41 min||NE 6 G 8.9||64°F||73°F||1020.2 hPa||52°F|
|45142 - Port Colborne||31 mi||71 min||ENE 9.7 G 12||66°F||71°F||1 ft||1018.8 hPa (+1.1)|
|OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY||32 mi||71 min||ESE 6 G 8||62°F||1020.3 hPa (+1.3)|
|PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY||37 mi||41 min||64°F||1019.3 hPa|
|45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax||43 mi||71 min||E 7.8 G 9.7||67°F||72°F||1 ft||1019.4 hPa (+1.0)|
|DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY||48 mi||71 min||E 7 G 9.9||65°F||1019.1 hPa (+1.2)|
Wind History for Buffalo, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY||19 mi||18 min||E 5||10.00 mi||Fair||57°F||53°F||87%||1019.6 hPa|
Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||SW||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||NW||N||N||NW||NW||NW||NW||W||NE||N|
|2 days ago||S||S||S||SE||Calm||Calm||SE||E||SE||SE||S||S||S||SW||S||S||S||S||SW||S||SW||SW||SW||W |
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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