Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lewiston, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:31PM Thursday March 21, 2019 11:31 AM EDT (15:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:25PMMoonset 7:00AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 635 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Today..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers this morning, then a chance of sprinkles this afternoon.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots. A chance of sprinkles in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers Sunday night.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day.
LOZ030 Expires:201903211500;;695060 FZUS51 KBUF 211035 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 635 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-211500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewiston, NY
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location: 43.19, -79.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211452
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1052 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Broad low pressure over lower michigan will steadily weaken
while slowly drifting to western new york during the course
of today. This system will produce some spotty light showers
and sprinkles at times through the day... With milder than
normal temperatures otherwise continuing. A secondary surface
low will then rapidly strengthen and track northeastward along
the mid atlantic and new england coastlines tonight and Friday.

This system may bring a heavy wet snowfall to areas east of
lake ontario Friday and Friday night... While the remainder of
the region should see a mix of rain and snow changing over to
all snow later Friday and Friday night.

Near term through tonight
Regional radars and surface observations display the region mainly
dry this late morning, with just a few isolated areas of
rain... Mainly across inland areas.

Through the course of today... A broad surface low over the western
end of lake erie will slowly push eastward to western new york while
steadily weakening... As its energy begins to transfer to a
developing secondary cyclone lifting northward from the carolinas to
the DELMARVA region. As the initial system will only grow weaker as
it approaches our area... Whatever precipitation we see today will
thus remain rather light and spotty in nature until much later this
afternoon... When a somewhat better potential for steadier pcpn will
begin to arrive across the north country in tandem with the approach
of the secondary coastal low. With respect to ptype... The relatively
mild airmass in place across our region will ensure that the
majority of this will just fall as some plain light rain showers and
sprinkles... With only the higher terrain of the north country seeing
a low-end potential for some light snow showers early this morning.

As for temperatures... The persistent mild airmass will help ensure
another day of above normal readings across our region... With
afternoon highs again expected to climb into the mid 40s to lower
50s.

Tonight the aforementioned coastal low will rapidly strengthen
while pushing northeastward into southern new england. This
system will initially bring a period of steadier light rain
to the north country and portions of the finger lakes during the
evening... With much more scattered rain showers found across
the rest of the region. As we progress through the overnight
hours... Colder air wrapping in behind this system will then
force the rain to begin to mix with change over to some wet
snow... With this transition beginning first across the higher
terrain. This said... With only very marginal temperatures for
rain vs. Snow in place... Any accumulations through the nighttime
hours will remain rather light and limited to the higher terrain...

with little or no accumulation expected across the lower elevations.

Otherwise... The developing cold air advection regime will result
in temperatures falling back to the lower to mid 30s by daybreak.

Short term Friday through Sunday
A strong shortwave diving across the upper great lakes Thursday
night will 'capture' and subsequently intensify an already existing
coastal storm off new england. Cold advection and the circulation of
deep synoptic moisture around the backside of this late season storm
will result in a quick changeover from mixed precip to all snow...

with measurable accumulations expected regionwide Friday and Friday
night. This will include significant accumulations east of lake
ontario due to orographics... So will maintain a winter storm watch
for that area. Its well worth noting that the snowfall will have
limited impact on travel during the day Friday... As an ever
increasing Sun angle should limit accumulations on roadways.

Accumulations will be most evident on grassy and elevated
surfaces... But this will change Friday night. It will turn quite
windy as well, with gusts over 35 mph possible as cold air pours
back into the region.

The northwest flow lake effect and upslope snow will continue
through Saturday morning before tapering off from west to east
Saturday afternoon as the strong coastal low begins to move into the
canadian maritimes and away from the region. Additional light snow
accumulations are possible Saturday morning. Temperatures will be
well below normal, with highs in the 30s.

High pressure passing to our south Saturday night and Sunday will
support fair dry weather for our region. Temperatures Sunday are
expected to climb into the 50s away from lakes.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
A cold front will be stretched from west to east from lake superior
to montreal Sunday evening through Monday. As high pressure
continues to retreat off the east coast, this frontal boundary will
begin to move southward Sunday night. There continues to be question
as to the track and speed of an area of low pressure that will be
developing across the central plains. The GFS continues bringing it
further north where widespread rain or snow showers will spread
across western and north central ny late Sunday night through Monday
while the ECMWF keeps low pressure further south with little
interaction with the cold front as it moves across the eastern great
lakes Monday. There is a large spread with the amount of liquid
precipitation right now so kept chance rain or snow showers Sunday
night through Monday.

One thing that does look certain is the amount of cold air that will
move into the eastern great lakes beginning Monday night. Cold air
advection will continue through Tuesday night with 850mb
temperatures falling to a low of around -15c. Although dry, expect
winter-like temperatures for the first half of next week.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
Through the course of today broad low pressure over lower
michigan will slowly make its way into western new york while
steadily weakening... As its energy begins to transfer to a
secondary coastal low tracking from the carolinas to the
delmarva region. The initial low will produce some spotty light
rain showers and sprinkles at times through the day... Though
these will have no impact on visibilities given their very light
nature. More significantly... A gradual increase in low level
moisture across our region will result in our current widespread
vfr ceilings slowly but steadily lowering to the lowerVFR MVFR
ranges... With some ifr ceilings becoming possible very late in
the day across the higher terrain of the southern tier and north
country.

Tonight the aforementioned coastal low will rapidly strengthen
while pushing northeastward into southern new england. This
system will initially bring a period of steadier light rain
to the north country and portions of the finger lakes during the
evening... With much more scattered rain showers found across the
rest of the region. As we progress through the overnight hours...

colder air wrapping in behind this system will then force the rain
to begin to mix with change over to some wet snow... With this
transition beginning first across the higher terrain. Coupled with
a further increase in low level moisture and developing upsloping
which will result in a further lowering of cloud bases... This will
result in flight conditions falling to lifr ifr across the higher
terrain... And to ifr lower-end MVFR across the lower elevations.

Outlook...

Friday... Lifr to MVFR with rain continuing to change over to snow.

Saturday... Improvement toVFR MVFR with lingering snow showers
tapering off.

Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain and
snow showers.

Marine
Broad low pressure over lower michigan will slowly make its way
into western new york while steadily weakening today... As its
energy begins to transfer to a secondary coastal low tracking
from the carolinas to the DELMARVA region. The initial low will
then devolve into a remnant inverted trough over lake ontario and
central new york tonight as the coastal low strengthens along the
mid-atlantic coastline. As a consequence of all these developments...

the pressure gradient across the lower lakes region will remain
weak to modest through tonight... Thereby supporting a continuation
of sub-advisory level winds and waves.

As the secondary coastal low tracks northeastward along the new
england coastline and continues to strengthen during Friday...

the pressure gradient across our region will tighten... Resulting
in winds freshening out of the west and northwest. This in turn
will likely lead to a round of advisory-worthy winds and waves
Friday through Saturday... With winds on lake ontario potentially
approaching lower-end gales Friday night. Winds and waves will
then diminish Saturday night and Sunday as the low pulls further
away from our region.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm watch from Friday morning through Saturday
morning for nyz006>008.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr thomas
short term... Hitchcock rsh tma
long term... Hsk rsh
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 17 mi50 min 43°F 1013.4 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 30 mi44 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 44°F 34°F1013.5 hPa20°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 32 mi32 min S 8.9 G 11 47°F 1014.2 hPa (-1.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 37 mi50 min 47°F 1013 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 48 mi32 min S 4.1 G 7 49°F 1013 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi39 minSSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F32°F66%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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SW10W8SW3CalmNE3E6E3CalmSW5CalmNE5E4SE7E5E5E7E3SE6SE8SE8
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2 days agoSW10SW9N6CalmSW13W8NW12NW11W4SW4W5SW3SW3S4S4S7NW4CalmSE3S3S3SW4SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.