Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lewiston, NY
May 8, 2024 3:22 AM EDT (07:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:58 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 5:00 AM Moonset 8:40 PM |
LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 408 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers late this evening. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight, then showers likely late.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely.
Friday - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night.
Saturday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers.
Sunday - West winds around 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 080538 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 138 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move across the area overnight, with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms crossing the area from southwest to northeast. The showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday morning. Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of Wednesday, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Regional radar shows showers and a few thunderstorms across southern Ontario to eastern Lake Erie late tonight. A few light showers are currently across the Niagara Frontier. While coverage of upstream activity has become less widespread, there still remains the chance for thunderstorms overnight. In particular, a thunderstorm just east of Long Point Ontario will likely reach the Niagara Frontier including Buffalo by 3AM. A brief period of heavy rain and lightning are the main concerns with this storm.
A mid level trough will move northeast across the Great Lakes, with an associated warm front moving northeast across our area overnight.
A 40+ knot southwesterly low level jet in the warm sector will impinge upon the warm front and enhance moisture transport and isentropic upglide. Available forcing and moisture will continue to support the idea of some showers and some embedded thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast across the area overnight, however recent radar trends suggest that activity will be less widespread especially across the western Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes region overnight. Mesoanalysis depicts greater instability further south, however there still remains some elevated instability across the southern half of western NY. Showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible across western NY overnight. Any storms we do see could produce brief periods of heavy rain, but they'll be moving along quickly enough to prevent any real flooding concerns.
Wednesday, the warm front will still be over the eastern Lake Ontario region early in the morning with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will have already ended across Western NY as the better forcing and moisture move east. It'll be quite breezy with wind gusts around 35 mph downwind of Lake Erie. This will result in a lake shadow which should keep most of Western NY rain free. The exception will be just south of Lake Ontario on the northern fringe of the shadow where limited instability may spark a few afternoon thunderstorms.
There may be a brief break in the showers east of Lake Ontario late Wednesday morning, but chances there will increase again when a strong mid level shortwave moves across southern Ontario.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the boundary which will be across northern Jefferson and Lewis Counties. In addition, instability to the south of this will feed into it, and potentially produce some stronger storms with heavy rain. SPC just clips this area with its Marginal Risk in the Day 2 Outlook.
Finally, an increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Erie fog will likely move onshore into downtown Buffalo for a few hours Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Ontario fog may move onshore into Jefferson County as well.
A weak area of low pressure will be east of the forecast area Wednesday night. The vast majority of the night will be rain- free with only small chances for showers east of Lake Ontario early and across the Western Southern Tier late.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The main challenge for this period will be periodic embeded shortwaves and the positioning of the H850 thermal boundary.
This feature is advertised to set up near the eastern Great Lakes, or even become draped across the region. This will impact temperatures, shower activity, and even thunderstorm potential through Friday. What is certain, it is looking 'likely' that it will be very unsettled through at least Friday. Given the unsettled weather anticipated...it would be highly recommended to have an umbrella handy through Friday. As was mentioned temperatures will be impacted...we could find ourselves on the cooler side of the thermal boundary with below normal temperatures. This will result in highs on Thursday only in the 60s, and then a tad bit cooler Friday with a range of 50s. May find a few spots in the low 60s.
Friday night...it looks like we will see a general decrease in shower coverage but can't completely rule out some showers overnight.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A broad upper level trough will become nestled across much of the Northeast through the weekend, and possibly will begin to retreat early next week. This pattern will 'likely' continue the theme of unsettled weather (showers), and also cool conditions (slightly below normal) across much of the region for this time of year.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms resides across southern Ontario and will enter western NY late tonight. While coverage of upstream activity has become less widespread, there still remains the chance for thunderstorms overnight. In particular, a thunderstorm just east of Long Point Ontario will likely reach the Niagara Frontier including Buffalo by 3AM. A brief period of IFR conditions with heavy rain and lightning are the main concerns with this storm. Prevailing VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR into Wednesday morning as a warm front moves into the region. The main concern will be lowering ceilings, however fog may develop on Lake Erie and move onshore by 15z Wednesday.
Confidence is low to medium that the fog will reach KBUF before winds ramp up Wednesday morning. Speaking of winds, low level winds will ramp up prior to surface winds early Wednesday morning. There is a low concern of low level wind shear, mainly from KIAG, KBUF to KROC this morning. It will be short lived and will be monitoring wind profiles.
Flight conditions will improve to VFR from west to east across the region Wednesday. As mentioned above, winds will ramp up and southwest winds 15-25kts with gusts up to 30kts are possible late Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon from KIAG to KROC. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible east-southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
VFR conditions will become low-end VFR/high-end MVFR at KART during this time.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
WSW winds will then increase late tonight and Wednesday. This will particularly be the case across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub-advisory conditions can be expected.
An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 138 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move across the area overnight, with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms crossing the area from southwest to northeast. The showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday morning. Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of Wednesday, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Regional radar shows showers and a few thunderstorms across southern Ontario to eastern Lake Erie late tonight. A few light showers are currently across the Niagara Frontier. While coverage of upstream activity has become less widespread, there still remains the chance for thunderstorms overnight. In particular, a thunderstorm just east of Long Point Ontario will likely reach the Niagara Frontier including Buffalo by 3AM. A brief period of heavy rain and lightning are the main concerns with this storm.
A mid level trough will move northeast across the Great Lakes, with an associated warm front moving northeast across our area overnight.
A 40+ knot southwesterly low level jet in the warm sector will impinge upon the warm front and enhance moisture transport and isentropic upglide. Available forcing and moisture will continue to support the idea of some showers and some embedded thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast across the area overnight, however recent radar trends suggest that activity will be less widespread especially across the western Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes region overnight. Mesoanalysis depicts greater instability further south, however there still remains some elevated instability across the southern half of western NY. Showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible across western NY overnight. Any storms we do see could produce brief periods of heavy rain, but they'll be moving along quickly enough to prevent any real flooding concerns.
Wednesday, the warm front will still be over the eastern Lake Ontario region early in the morning with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will have already ended across Western NY as the better forcing and moisture move east. It'll be quite breezy with wind gusts around 35 mph downwind of Lake Erie. This will result in a lake shadow which should keep most of Western NY rain free. The exception will be just south of Lake Ontario on the northern fringe of the shadow where limited instability may spark a few afternoon thunderstorms.
There may be a brief break in the showers east of Lake Ontario late Wednesday morning, but chances there will increase again when a strong mid level shortwave moves across southern Ontario.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the boundary which will be across northern Jefferson and Lewis Counties. In addition, instability to the south of this will feed into it, and potentially produce some stronger storms with heavy rain. SPC just clips this area with its Marginal Risk in the Day 2 Outlook.
Finally, an increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Erie fog will likely move onshore into downtown Buffalo for a few hours Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Ontario fog may move onshore into Jefferson County as well.
A weak area of low pressure will be east of the forecast area Wednesday night. The vast majority of the night will be rain- free with only small chances for showers east of Lake Ontario early and across the Western Southern Tier late.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The main challenge for this period will be periodic embeded shortwaves and the positioning of the H850 thermal boundary.
This feature is advertised to set up near the eastern Great Lakes, or even become draped across the region. This will impact temperatures, shower activity, and even thunderstorm potential through Friday. What is certain, it is looking 'likely' that it will be very unsettled through at least Friday. Given the unsettled weather anticipated...it would be highly recommended to have an umbrella handy through Friday. As was mentioned temperatures will be impacted...we could find ourselves on the cooler side of the thermal boundary with below normal temperatures. This will result in highs on Thursday only in the 60s, and then a tad bit cooler Friday with a range of 50s. May find a few spots in the low 60s.
Friday night...it looks like we will see a general decrease in shower coverage but can't completely rule out some showers overnight.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A broad upper level trough will become nestled across much of the Northeast through the weekend, and possibly will begin to retreat early next week. This pattern will 'likely' continue the theme of unsettled weather (showers), and also cool conditions (slightly below normal) across much of the region for this time of year.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms resides across southern Ontario and will enter western NY late tonight. While coverage of upstream activity has become less widespread, there still remains the chance for thunderstorms overnight. In particular, a thunderstorm just east of Long Point Ontario will likely reach the Niagara Frontier including Buffalo by 3AM. A brief period of IFR conditions with heavy rain and lightning are the main concerns with this storm. Prevailing VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR into Wednesday morning as a warm front moves into the region. The main concern will be lowering ceilings, however fog may develop on Lake Erie and move onshore by 15z Wednesday.
Confidence is low to medium that the fog will reach KBUF before winds ramp up Wednesday morning. Speaking of winds, low level winds will ramp up prior to surface winds early Wednesday morning. There is a low concern of low level wind shear, mainly from KIAG, KBUF to KROC this morning. It will be short lived and will be monitoring wind profiles.
Flight conditions will improve to VFR from west to east across the region Wednesday. As mentioned above, winds will ramp up and southwest winds 15-25kts with gusts up to 30kts are possible late Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon from KIAG to KROC. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible east-southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
VFR conditions will become low-end VFR/high-end MVFR at KART during this time.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
WSW winds will then increase late tonight and Wednesday. This will particularly be the case across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub-advisory conditions can be expected.
An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby | 13 mi | 22 min | NNE 1.9G | 50°F | 48°F | 1 ft | 29.56 | |
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 13 mi | 22 min | ESE 4.1G | 55°F | 29.53 | |||
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 17 mi | 52 min | 56°F | 29.56 | ||||
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 30 mi | 52 min | NW 8.9G | 61°F | 58°F | 29.52 | 53°F | |
| 45142 - Port Colborne | 31 mi | 22 min | ESE 3.9G | 56°F | 54°F | 0 ft | 29.54 | |
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 32 mi | 22 min | E 8.9G | 54°F | 29.56 | |||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 37 mi | 52 min | 62°F | 29.51 | ||||
| 45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax | 43 mi | 22 min | NE 16G | 49°F | 44°F | 1 ft | 29.53 | |
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 48 mi | 22 min | WNW 9.9G | 60°F | 29.54 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KIAG NIAGARA FALLS INTL,NY | 19 sm | 29 min | ENE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 55°F | 48°F | 77% | 29.54 |
Buffalo, NY,
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