Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lewiston, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:43PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 11:33 PM EDT (03:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:21PMMoonset 1:26AM Illumination 58% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 1023 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
Overnight..Light and variable winds. Areas of fog late.
Wednesday..West winds 10 knots or less. Sunny.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Thursday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ030 Expires:201805230915;;383111 FZUS51 KBUF 230223 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1023 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ030-230915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewiston, NY
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location: 43.19, -79.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230253
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1053 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will track into northern new england tonight
with a few lingering showers and areas of fog tonight. High
pressure will bring a period of dry weather Wednesday through
Friday. Afternoon high temperatures in the 70s midweek will
steadily increase to the lower 80s for the start of the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
Weak low pressure across northern new york late this evening will
track into northern new england tonight. Any lingering showers
with a frontal boundary associated with this low will taper off
through midnight.

There are areas of fog across portions of lake erie and lake
ontario this evening. This fog is light across the majority of
the cwa, but webcams show locally dense fog near and south of
downtown buffalo along the immediate lake erie shoreline. It is
a similar story east of lake ontario with areas of dense fog
there as well. A dense fog advisory is in effect for areas east
of lake erie and lake ontario. This fog will initially be
fairly localized near the lakeshores and enhanced by low level
convergence. However, this should become more widespread
overnight when low stratus are likely to lower in these areas.

This is depicted by the hrrr model. In addition to the advection
fog, there is a risk of radiation fog later tonight. The
concern here is that if there is any clearing as high pressure
builds in, this would be quickly followed by dense fog. If this
happens, the dense fog advisory may need to be expanded.

High pressure will ridge into the lower great lakes late
tonight, with drier air gradually building into the region. Lows
tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s.

High pressure will expand across the region on Wednesday. There will
be some lingering stratus and fog in the morning, but this should
gradually dissipate by afternoon. High temperatures will be mainly
in the 70s, except slightly cooler along the immediate lakeshore.

Short term Wednesday night through Saturday night
The weather will be absolutely spectacular across the region for the
over whelming majority of this period... As a negatively tilted ridge
within a split flow will track across the great lakes region. The
ridge will deamplify with time though... And this will end up placing
our region between a slow moving back door cold front to the north
and the fringes of a large shield of tropical moisture to our south.

As we start the weekend... This will eventually bring an end to the
fine stretch of weather with showers and thunderstorms entering the
picture.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Better agreement among guidance packages with suppressing the
deeper subtropical moisture well south of the lower great lakes.

Over the course of the memorial day weekend look for
temperatures to nudge upwards (u70s-l80s)along with humidity
levels as deep southerly flow will transport some of the
available subtropical moisture to our south into our region. For
now, it looks like just increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the day Sunday as the northern upstream
shortwave trough over quebec canada influences the lower great
lakes. Monday into Tuesday, a cold front will cross the region
as the shortwave passes by to our north through ontario canada
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier
weather with less humidity returns late Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure builds at the surface and aloft over new york
state.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
The main concern for aviation is areas of low stratus and the
potential for dense fog. The remains lots of low level moisture,
with low ceilings, especially east of the lakes where the the
moist air is mixing with the relatively cool lake waters. This
will result in mainly ifr conditions overnight, with areas of
dense fog. Another potential concern is if skies do clear out,
any clearing would quickly be followed by radiation fog.

Low moisture will gradually mix out Wednesday morning with
widespreadVFR flight conditions by the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...VFR.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers.

Sunday... MVFR. Showers likely.

Marine
Winds will not be very strong, however there will be areas of
fog due to the warm moist air across the relatively cool lake
waters. Surface high pressure will near the region Wednesday,
passing over the eastern great lakes Thursday, before shifting
towards the southeast states on Friday. This will maintain light
winds and minimal waves through the end of the week.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt Wednesday for nyz006>008-010-
019-020-085.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Rsh
long term... Ar
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 13 mi33 min WNW 6 G 7 53°F 1014.2 hPa (+1.3)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 13 mi93 min NW 5.8 G 5.8 50°F 50°F1014.5 hPa (+1.4)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 17 mi45 min 58°F 1014.5 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 30 mi45 min S 4.1 G 4.1 53°F 1014.7 hPa50°F
45142 - Port Colborne 31 mi93 min W 5.8 G 5.8 50°F 48°F1 ft1014.1 hPa (+1.4)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 32 mi33 min Calm G 0 52°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.3)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 37 mi45 min 52°F 1014.4 hPa
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 43 mi93 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 47°F 44°F1013.9 hPa (+1.1)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 48 mi33 min SW 13 G 15 55°F 1014.8 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi40 minN 010.00 miOvercast62°F55°F78%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5S4E4SE7E4SE6E10SE5SE5S4SW6SW8SW9SW7NW9W3N6NW7N3NE3NE5NE4NE3Calm
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE33CalmN3N4E4NE7N7NE9NE8NE6NE7NE6E4E4
2 days agoS9S10SW9SW8W7NW15NW10W6NW9NW9NW8W9NW10NW11NW10NW10NW6NW6N6SW8S4CalmS3S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.