Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 2:39 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LOZ044 Expires:202405181515;;413126 Fzus51 Kbuf 180836 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 436 am edt Sat may 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-181515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 436 am edt Sat may 18 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers with patchy drizzle early, then patchy drizzle late this morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - North winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 180702 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 302 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain showers this morning will become less widespread through the day. A few thunderstorms could develop in the western Southern Tier this afternoon but will quickly dissipate after sunset. Partly cloudy skies tonight will lead to some valley fog formation by Sunday Morning. Sunday is looking dry and much warmer than today.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
300 AM Update:

A weakening shortwave is moving through early this morning bringing a round of light rain to most of the region. A filling area of low pressure in western NY keeps SE flow across the region and with sufficient low level moisture, low stratus will persist for much of the morning into early afternoon limiting heating. The 500 mb trough axis is swinging through so despite the clouds, shower activity will lessen through the day. The western Southern Tier into parts of the western Finger Lakes will see more sun with a tongue of higher dew points nudging in helping to destabilize the atmosphere. HRRR shows around 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE developing by the afternoon with most models showing some QPF so thunderstorm chances were increased west of Elmira up towards Penn Yan. Shear will be lacking and with little flow aloft, storms will not be moving fast. The storms will have about 1.25 to 1.4 inches of precipitable water to work with so heavy rain will be possible with any storms. Luckily storms will be small and likely pulse up and down quickly so flash flood threat is low.

Tonight, upper level ridging builds in with high pressure nosing in from the NE. With clouds starting to scatter out late in the afternoon into the evening, there will be enough cooling coupled with the rain falling now to get river valley fog development. Sunday is looking good with high pressure and ridging remaining in place. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 70s with the mostly sunny skies and ridging in place.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will be over the region Sunday night with the ridge likely to remain in place through Monday night. This will result in winds shifting to southwesterly gradually bringing in a warmer and slightly more humid airmass. Temperatures still look to fall into the 50's to around 60 at night with highs pushing 80 Monday for most locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region Tuesday before being chipped away by an approaching cold front Wednesday. This front then looks to break down the ridge Thursday.
Enough lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is currently modeled from about 500-1000 J/KG each afternoon and evening so some thunderstorms will be possible as well. Still some timing differences with the operational models and ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. Leaned more toward the slower ECMWF suite at this time. Given the timing differences it is still to early to determine the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms.

Continued warm air advection should result in a continued warming trend through Wednesday. Trended high temperatures through the middle of the week closer to a blend of the 50/75th probability of the NBM given the modeled boundary layer temperatures. Most locations should rise well into the 80's with a few locations close to 90 on Wednesday. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60's at night.

With the front moving through Wednesday night and Thursday some lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible but temperatures Thursday and Friday trend back downward again after the frontal passage with 70's for highs.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Cigs have been slow to drop to MVFR with the rain at ELM so the timing of the MVFR cigs have been pushed back. SYR and RME are on the north end of the rain and with SE flow, VFR conditons will likely persist over the next 24 hours. ELM and BGM are most likely to see IFR with ELM seeing heavier precipitation increasing low level moisture and then BGM will have moist SE flow that frequently results in IFR cigs especially when it is raining. ITH and AVP will see rain but cigs stay more elevated with downslope winds at both terminals.

Tomorrow the rain clears up and cigs raise with VFR conditions returning at all terminals by around 0Z.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Decreasing chance of showers but restrictions from fog is possible.

Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible by Wednesday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Montague, NY,