Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:38PM Sunday November 19, 2017 4:30 PM EST (21:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:50AMMoonset 5:49PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 943 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect until 8 pm est this evening...
Rest of today..Northwest gales to 35 knots. Rain and snow showers. Waves 11 to 15 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 10 to 14 feet subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow with lake effect rain showers likely in the morning, then lake effect rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201711192215;;648675 FZUS51 KBUF 191443 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 943 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-192215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 192025
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
325 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
A few scattered snow showers across the region are possible
this evening. Otherwise, lake effect snow will develop later
this evening and last into Monday. Snow may be heavy at times
in parts of north central new york.

Near term through Monday
320 pm update...

main concerns in the near term remain focused around the
accumulating lake effect snow across onondaga, madison and oneida
counties tonight through Monday morning and the potential
for scattered brief snow squalls this evening over the rest of
the area.

The winter storm watch for les has been upgraded to a lake effect
snow warning from 7 pm this evening until 1 pm Monday.

Confidence has increased that there will be a period of heavy snow
along an enhanced lake effect band this evening into tonight. This
band will be capable of producing heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inches
per hour. Prior to the development of this heavy snow band,
scattered light to moderate snow showers will continue to over
spread the region from the west... Downwind of the great lakes. Cold
air pouring in aloft is enhancing low level lapse rates enough and
picking up moisture from the lakes to produce low-topped weak
convective snow showers this afternoon. The showers will be capable
of dropping a quick half inch of snow in a short period of time,
along with low visibilities. This pattern should continue into the
evening hours before the moisture pools into a main band of lake
effect snow some time after 7 pm.

There still remains some uncertainty regarding the placement of the
main lake effect band among the model guidance... The lake band will
most likely be on the move oscillating and not be confined to one
specific area. This feature will allow the total amount of snow to
be limited to less than 10 inches. However, strong lift and well
saturated conditions in the dgz combined with steep lapse rates in
the mixed layer and at least a minor upstream lake connection should
allow for a corridor of periods of heavy lake effect snow. The
band does not appear to get locked in one location and should
waiver north and south between camden in oneida county and lafayette
in onondaga county. Either way, the threat for heavy snowfall
rates through the night and Monday morning poises a risk for
hazardous travel conditions and potentially near- white out
conditions. Most locations will pick up most of the their snow
in a 2-4 hour period.

Boundary layer winds will back to the W SW through the morning hours
and allow the lake band to shift to the north... Becoming focused
mainly across oneida county after 9am. The overall pattern through
the morning and the rest of the afternoon will be to continue to
lift and weaken the lake band... With a secondary, left over area of
lake erie snow bands dissipating across central ny. Additional snow
amounts will be light, with conditions becoming quiet by the late
afternoon early evening.

Temperatures tonight will be cooling into the 20s for most
locations. Highs on Monday will only reach into the mid to upper
30s.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday
320 pm update...

with a surface high centered near the north carolina outer banks,
lake-effect precipitation should come to an end Monday as the
shortwave trough axis slides east of the region. The surface high is
forecast to quickly slide into the atlantic, resulting in dry
conditions Tuesday, as a broad southwesterly flow is seen across the
region. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon should be above seasonal
values for late november, with highs hovering around the 50 degree
mark area-wide.

About the same time, another shortwave trough is expected to amplify
as its axis swings into the upper midwest. This should result in the
occlusion of a storm system over eastern ontario Tuesday. The odds
of seeing precipitation will likely increase over our area Tuesday
night in advance of this system. Surface to 850 mb moisture flux
covergence fields indicate most of the moisture with this storm
system should be pooled along the front. As such, it looks like the
greatest odds of seeing precipitation in our area between
approximately midnight and sunrise Wednesday.

The front is expected to move offshore Wednesday morning. Although
it's not the strongest case for such, the combination of a
northwesterly flow behind the front and continued presence of a
negatively-tilted trough may result in some precipitation generated
by the lake-effect machine across central new york Wednesday. Any
lake-effect precipitation should taper during the afternoon as the
upper trough ejects and surface high pressure heads toward the
eastern half of the country.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
320 pm update...

surface high pressure and a nearly zonal flow is expected to
dominate weather conditions across the region Wednesday night.

Another weak shortwave trough is expected to emanate from an upper
low over hudson bay, then eject across the region Thursday. I think
most of the forecast area will see a dry thanksgiving. However,
there may be enough boundary layer moisture associated with the
passage of the disturbance to generate a bit of lake-effect
precipitation, mainly across areas along and north of the i-90
corridor. Forecast soundings suggest the moisture will be fairly
shallow (and short-lived), which should result in a relatively low-
impact event.

Upper low then moves from the hudson bay into quebec Thursday night
into Friday, bringing a cold front into the upstate. We may see a
little bit of light snow over (mainly) the northern tier of counties
Friday in association with the front. By Friday evening, though, the
boundary layer flow is expected to become southwesterly and set up a
low-level warm advection pattern over the region as the front moves
back north as a warm front.

Forecast confidence wanes from there. Plenty of discrepancies are
evident with regard to timing, evolution, and impacts from the next
system. In general, expect precipitation probabilities to increase
heading into next weekend as the upper-level storm system pushes a
surface low from ontario into quebec. Depending on the upper
trough's amplitude, this could push the associated cold fronts
through the region sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night.

I've stayed fairly close to the model blend during this period given
evolutionary uncertainty.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
Gusty NW winds earlier this morning have subsided quite a bit.

Will likely see sustained W NW winds around 10-15 kt with gusts
to 25 kt into this evening. Scattered snow showers through the
afternoon and evening over much of the area will cause brief
restrictions in vsbys. Prevailing conditions will remain MVFR to
fuel alternate with lake effect snow showers developing at
ksyr- krme late this afternoon through tonight, where
restrictions of at least ifr may be fairly persistent. Directly
under snow bands, conditions may get below alternate minimums
at times. We will also have to watch for pieces of the lake erie
band reaching towards kelm late afternoon and perhaps kbgm-kith
and even kavp this evening, though best chance of actual
associated restrictions will be at kelm. Conditions improve
by 12z Monday morning at SRN terminals, and after 15z at ksyr.

Should continue to see snow showers and lower vsbys at krme
through 18z.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon... Lake effect snow tapering off at krme.

MainlyVFR elsewhere.

Monday night through Tuesday... MainlyVFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Restrictions possible in
scattered rain snow showers.

Wednesday night through Friday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Lake effect snow warning from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Monday for nyz009-018-036-037.

Synopsis... Bjt
near term... Bjt
short term... Dab
long term... Dab
aviation... Bjt mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi43 min WNW 28 G 33 40°F 1003.5 hPa29°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi31 min WNW 16 G 20 39°F 1005.4 hPa (+1.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi43 min 39°F 1004.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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SE8
G13
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G15
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SE10
G14
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G24
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G34
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G35
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1 day
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W11
G15
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G8
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SE5
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G12
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G13
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G14
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G15
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G20
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G17
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S11
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ago
W33
W31
NW29
G37
NW31
W29
NW25
G32
NW26
NW25
G32
NW22
G27
NW24
W24
NW22
G30
NW24
G32
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G28
NW18
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NW16
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G21
NW12
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NW12
G15
W12
G17
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G22
W13
G21
W11
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi37 minW 910.00 miOvercast34°F32°F92%1003.5 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi37 minWNW 16 G 2210.00 miOvercast38°F27°F65%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE9E8E65S7E9
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W10W11W11W13
G20
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W9
1 day agoW6CalmCalmCalmE4E4E5E6E5E9E7E8E7E7E9NE5NE4E7E6S10
G19
S11S8S10S9
2 days agoW18
G26
W12
G16
W11W7W14W13
G23
W12
G18
W15
G26
W14
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W15
G22
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G24
NW11NW13NW18
G23
NW11W13NW13W14W13
G19
W11
G18
W9NW10NW10W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.