Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:49PM Friday June 23, 2017 1:05 PM EDT (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:10AMMoonset 7:17PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 441 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds from late morning on. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 66 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201706231515;;680774 FZUS51 KBUF 230841 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 441 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-231515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 231452
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1052 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
This afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
become widespread as a front passes through the area. Locally
heavy rain is possible through this evening. The steadier
showers will end late tonight. The rest of the weekend will be
seasonable with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Near term through Saturday
1045 am update... Local radars show only isolated coverage
across the forecast area. Late this morning through the
afternoon coverage will increase as a mid level short moves
through the area and the surface cold front currently over
southern ontario drops south. Any convection this afternoon and
evening will be accompanied by very heavy downpours as airmass
over the region is very juicy with pwats near 2.0 inches. The
chance for severe convection looks marginal at best as
significant CAPE looks unlikely with extensive cloud cover.

7 am update...

dropped pops early since rain is just in far northern oneida
county. Comes into the west and south late morning.

3 am update...

little in the way of precipitation now. Only some sprinkles in
oneida county. This will be the case the rest of the early
morning. Thunderstorms over lake ontario will stay north of the
cwa. Temperatures have dropped into the upper 60s and lower 70s
with light winds and mid and high clouds. Adjusted temperatures
down slightly.

Today into Saturday will feature a widespread rain event. A deep
southwest flow is pumping very warm moist air into the region
ahead of a tropical depression and a cold front. The cold front
has slowed enough that the heavy rain with the depression
probably will get into northeast pa and sullivan county ny.

Fortunately this area of rain tonight is moving so general
rainfall amounts will be 1 to 2 inches there. Further north
amounts will be mostly under an inch. The problem will come with
thunderstorms and localized heavy rain. Thunderstorms and
showers will move in late morning and become more widespread in
the afternoon. This evening will be more of a continuous rain
with embedded convection. Precipitable water around 2 inches
with surface dewpoints 65 to 70.

Spc has included the area in a marginal risk for damaging winds
and large hail. With the saturated tropical airmass will be hard
to get large hail to the ground since the -20c level is over 25k
feet. Marginal instability (500 to 1000 cape) and shear (30 to
40 kts). Good forcing with a short wave associated with the
depression moving east northeast into the area late today.

Depression hits the nj coast late tonight pulling the cold front
out of the area. Saturday precip chances drop to chance but
still some forcing with short waves aloft and a secondary cold
front combined with northwest cold air advection. Less humid
air but sunshine will let temperatures get back into the upper
70s and lower 80s.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
Main concerns in the short term remain centered around a cooler and
drier pattern shift late this weekend and into early next week.

A long wave trough will move slowly across the ERN great lakes
Saturday night through Monday and act as the main forcing mechanism
to produce a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.

Weather conditions Saturday night and early Sunday morning should be
quiet with a dry air mass in place and a weak surface high situated
over the northeast. The upper trough axis will rotate through the
great lakes Sunday and Monday with a series of embedded short waves
interacting with weak to modest deep moisture to trigger showers and
isolated storms Sunday afternoon evening, mainly over the finger
lakes and mohawk valley area. Instability is expected to subside
Sunday night and allow for only a few lingering rain showers into
Monday morning.

The trough amplifies a bit on Monday and allows the precipitation to
spread more to the south and east. Another embedded S W will rotate
around the bottom of the upper trough on Monday and once again
interact with diurnal instability to produce another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Surface temps and dew points
will be fairly mild, so instability will likely be limited with ml
cape values 500 j kg or less. Deep layer shear is expected to be
weak as well. So, typical air mass thunderstorms are a strong
likelihood. Pwats should be less than 1 inch... Which will inhibit the
potential for heavy rain as well.

Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be mild with highs in the 60s
and lower 70s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid
50s.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
The upper trough will continue to rotate ewd Monday night
through Tuesday with lingering showers and storms. Best chance
of precip remains confined to the afternoon and evening time
frame.

Upper level ridging begins to develop Tuesday night and really sets
up over the area Wed and thur with a large surface high building
into the mid atlantic region. Mid level warm air advection on the
back side of the upper ridge develops during this time and allows
temperatures to warm back to near normal for this time of year. This
pattern will likely keep weather conditions quiet through the middle
of the week.

Temperatures will warm well into the 70s by Wednesday... And into the
upper 70s and lower 80s by Thursday. Will see a gradual increase in
low level moisture too, with sfc dew points going from the lower 50s
Tuesday, to the upper 50s close to 60 by thurs.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
7 am update...

vfr will continue this morning. Some showers will move across
avp and south central ny with MVFR restrictions late morning and
early afternoon. Better rain with showers and thunderstorms
will move in late afternoon and continue into tonight. High end
MVFR will start with them then drop to fuel alternate MVFR this
evening. Conditions may will to ifr especially at bgm towards
06z. Ifr and low MVFR continues until 12z. Some of the showers
and thunderstorms will have heavy rain and may have gusty winds.

South to southwest winds at 5 kts early this morning will
increase to 7 to 10 kts this morning. Some gusts to 15 to 20
this afternoon then wind drops tonight back to light and shifts
to southwest then west late.

Outlook...

Saturday morning... Conditions quickly improve toVFR from
MVFR ifr.

Saturday afternoon - Monday... MostlyVFR, but shower storm and
brief restriction possible.

Tuesday... Convection with restrictions.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Rrm tac
near term... Rrm tac
short term... Bjt
long term... Bjt
aviation... Tac


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi54 min S 11 G 13 80°F 1002.4 hPa68°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi66 min S 6 G 9.9 79°F 1003 hPa (-3.1)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi54 min 77°F 1001.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi72 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast78°F69°F74%1003 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi72 minS 710.00 miOvercast81°F70°F69%1003.1 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9SW7S5CalmE5E7E4CalmSE3E4SE3CalmS4S8SW7SW7SW11NW5NE4E5S8S15
G19
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1 day agoW12
G17
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NW12NW12W10NW9W7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SW3SW7W10W8SW12
2 days agoSW18
G28
NW13NW8NW8W4NW8NW6CalmS5E3E3E4W6
G16
S5CalmSW3SW3W8W10W9W11W10W13W10
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.