Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 10:23 PM   Moonset 6:08 AM

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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1012 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Overnight - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Sunday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 261029 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 629 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in control today with calm and dry conditions expected. A warm front swings through the region Saturday through Sunday bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming trend. Another frontal system pushes through the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
630 am update...
A cool start this morning with temperatures ranging in the mid 20s to low 30s. Minor changes were made to update temperatures with current observation. Previous forecast remains on track at this time

300 am update...
Surface high pressure is centered over our region this morning with calm and dry conditions persisting for one more day. Upper level ridge aloft moves into our region allowing for southerly flow to return. Under this pattern temperatures will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s with plenty of sunshine. High pressure shifts eastwards overnight with clouds beginning to fill in from the east ahead of a warm front. With calm and mostly clear skies persisting for most of the night, lows will fall into the mid 30s to low 40s.

Precipitation chances begin to gradually increase Saturday morning with rain showers becoming more likely in the afternoon. Most model guidance show showers holding off until the afternoon with dry air in place for the morning. Used a blend of recent CAM models to work out the timing of these showers. Rainfall amounts will be light; less than a tenth of an inch. Despite dreary conditions southerly flow will keep highs near average in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Steady rain showers will continue through the afternoon and into the evening hours across the region.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
We look to be firmly in a warm sector Saturday night through Monday.
While the warm front stays to our north, enough moisture looks to be in place to continue a mention for isolated showers and even thunderstorms as the instability increases a bit as well. Modeled 925 mb temperatures would indicate highs in the 70's Sunday and even the low 80's Monday. With the amount of moisture on the increase low temperatures may struggle to fall much below 60 Sunday night. The GFS has been giving the hint of the warm front becoming a backdoor cold front offering a cooler and showier outcome, till other model support is present will not trend the forecast in this direction.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around 500-1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60's. In terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be around 20-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front can have a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor for any strong to severe storms too. So will continue to monitor over the next several days. Overall, the trend is slightly weaker for these thunderstorms compared to yesterday.

Overall this front is trending weaker as well not really bringing in much in the way of a cooling trend till the next front moves through on Thursday. With this slower solution, a few showers and thunderstorms remain possible through mid week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR conditions expected at all terminals with mostly clear skies.
Light and variable winds transition south/southeast late morning remaining under 10 knots for the entire period.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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