Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:20PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:20 PM EDT (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 7:18AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201903222115;;756673 Fzus51 Kbuf 221729 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 129 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-222115- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 129 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
This afternoon..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Scattered rain showers and snow early, then rain and snow late. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Snow. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Scattered snow showers in the morning. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Clear. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers Sunday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 222347
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
747 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
A complex coastal storm will bring gusty winds and periods of
snow through tonight. Snow accumulations will vary greatly
across the area, with the highest amounts expected north and
northeast of binghamton tonight. Turning much colder tonight and
Saturday. Then, milder and mostly sunny weather for Sunday.

Near term through Saturday night
With the early evening update, we incorporated some elements of
latest hrrr and rap model runs. This lowered snowfall totals by
an inch or so across the syracuse area. Scattered rain and snow
showers will be briefly moderate to heavy across NE pa but these
should start to taper down with the loss of peak heating this
evening.

350 pm update... Round two of our very complex late winter storm
is now starting. Two upper level low pressure systems, one near
boston and one near buffalo will merge tonight... Wrapping
atlantic moisture back into parts of our area from the north.

Latest radar trends show snow (some rain in the valleys)
wrapping back down near utica, rome, syracuse and oneonta.

Meanwhile, more convective type showers of snow, snow pellets
and rain are streaking across our west, central and southern
zones at this time associated with the western upper low.

Later on this evening the the latest mesoscale models still
indicate a solid period of wrap around snow enveloping much of
central ny and even into the northern tier of pa. Temperatures
fall quickly once the aforementioned upper level low slides by
to our east after about 7-8 pm. Snow to liquid ratios increase
to around 15:1 overnight and with the gusty northwest winds
there will likely be areas of blowing and drift snow... Mainly
over the higher elevations. Overall, not too much change in the
forecast snow amounts this evening and tonight. Winter storm
warning remains in place for all areas, except northern wayne
county (pa) where a winter weather advisory is now in effect.

Winter weather advisories also remain in place for the same
locations. Lower confidence in reaching warning criteria for
much of oneida county due to forecast downsloping and
shadowing... But could still see some higher amounts across the
southern portion of the county so will continue the warning for
now. Decided to just go with an advisory for southern cayuga
county, although do believe much of the county will see a solid
5-6 inches... .But confidence in any 7 inch plus amounts was not
quite high enough at this time. The snow quickly tapers off to
snow showers and flurries from west to east between 4-8am
Saturday. Overnight lows will be most 20-25 degrees.

Saturday: a few lingering snow showers and flurries in the early
morning across north-central ny, especially east of i-81. Mostly
cloudy to start, but then clouds quickly decrease with it
becoming mostly sunny from west to east by afternoon. Still cold
and breezy. Northwest winds 10-20 mph, with gusts 30-35 mph
early. High temperatures reach the upper 20s to mid-30s across
central ny... And the mid-30s to lower 40s across NE pa.

Saturday night: high pressure builds overhead with warming
aloft. Winds decrease overnight, mainly less than 10 mph toward
morning. Clear skies with lows in the 20s
previous discussion below
1200 pm update... A lull in our winter storm now, and for the
next several hours as the main deformation band has weakened
and shifted over the western catskills mohawk valley region.

Mostly dry for now back to the west across the southern tier of
ny, finger lakes and much of NE pa. The next upper level
wave low is racing across western ny and pa, and this will bring
a renewed area of snow showers by late afternoon and early
evening. This upper level energy will also reinvigorate the
coastal low... Helping it to lob additional atlantic moisture
into our areas from the north as it becomes vertically stack,
and nearly stationary along the new england coast tonight. Made
update to pops, qpf, snow amounts and winter headlines. Did add
in a slight chance of thunder over our southwestern zones as
this strengthening upper level low moves through, increasing low
level lapse rates. Continue to mention blowing snow in the
forecast tonight, with wind gusts up to 40 mph. Cancelled the
winter weather advisories across much of NE pa (except still a
winter storm warning for N wayne, and advisory for susquehanna).

Still expecting an additional 3-7 inches in the lower elevations
of the warning area, with 5-10 inches over the higher terrain
here. Expect an additional 1-3 inches in the advisory area in
the lower elevations... With mainly 2-5 inches across the higher
terrain here. Localized higher amounts are still possible across
portions of southern cayuga county from this second round of
snow this evening tonight... So will need to continue to analyze
the latest data and consider upgrading this area to a warning
with the afternoon update. Will also be looking closely at
oneida county, as the strong NW flow looks to create an area of
lower snow amounts in a downslope flow off the tug hill
plateau... Therefore expect a local minima of only 1-3 additional
inches from near rome to delta lake, whitesboro and utica.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Sunday and Sunday night:
high pressure across the mid-atlantic will move offshore leading to
a moderating trend thanks to southwesterly flow on the backside of
the high pressure system. Enough influence from the high looks to be
present for one more sunny day with the next cold front still in the
great lakes. Temperatures should rebound nicely into the 50's,
likely a bit over blended model guidance. Clouds are expected to
increase ahead of the cold front with enough moisture and lift along
it for a few rain or snow showers toward sunrise Monday. Right now,
qpf from various ensembles is only a showing a tenth of an inch or
less of qpf. This would result in only minor snow
accumulations. Temperatures should fall back into the 30's by
Monday morning, with 40's in NE pa.

Monday through Tuesday night:
behind the previously mentioned cold front some additional rain or
snow showers are possible on Monday. Temperatures could be
steady or slowly falling behind the front throughout the day
dependent on the frontal timing. Even with a stronger spring
sun angle, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30's on
Monday and Tuesday with strong cold air advection behind the
front. Lows Monday night look to fall into the 10's. Less
concern is present for any lake effect given a slight easterly
component with the cold air advection. High pressure builds into
the region on Tuesday likely resulting in a sunny but cold day.

With clear skies, lows still look to be fairly chilly Tuesday
night in the 10's to around 20. Lows both mornings may end up a
touch colder than model guidance because of snow cover in the
higher elevations of NE pa and the western catskills.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
High pressure will be in firm control on Wednesday, bringing plenty
of sunshine and seasonable temperatures (highs in the 40s). This
high pressure system moves east of the area on Thursday, bringing
a southerly flow. At the same time, an upper level ridge will build
in over the region. This will result in warmer temperatures on
Thursday under mostly sunny skies, with highs likely getting
well into the 50s.

Friday looks to be the warmest day of this period, with highs
possibly approaching 60 degrees in spots, with mid to upper 50s
elsewhere. A slow moving cold front then looks to approach from
the west, which may bring some late day rain showers to cny.

Given timing uncertainties with the front being this far out,
kept pops in this area very low (less than 20 percent), as it
is certainly possible the entire day on Friday remains dry area-
wide.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Radar mosaic imagery shows stratiform light snow rain across
north central ny including krme and ksyr terminals at this time.

Conditions were mainly MVFR ceiling and visibility in light
snow rain. Radar trends shows more precipitation heading toward
these terminals and with a cooling boundary layer we expect all
rain to change to light snow. So we have tempo groups out to
06z-08z for ifr in snow with krme seeing some ifr ceilings at
times until 03z. Farther south, at kith, kelm and kbgm there
were mainly snow showers which was evolving from a more
convective nature from the afternoon heating to more statiform
as the boundary layer stablizes this evening. This will cut
down on some chop during ascent and descent. We expect mainly
MVFR ceilings with occasional MVFR to ifr in snow showers until
04z-06z. For kavp, we expect mainlyVFR with ifr in snow
showers down to 1sm at times until about 03z.

This light snow and snow showers will taper down 04z-08z in our
ny terminals and by 03z-04z at kavp. Then we will see an MVFR
deck at krme, kbgm, kith, and kavp and a lowVFR deck at ksyr
and kelm from 06z-08z until clearing works in from west to
east. The clearing and subsequentVFR conditions reaches kelm at
12z, 15z at kavp and by 16z-18z at our other terminals (ksyr,
krme, kbgm and kith). After 18z,VFR.

Winds will be gusty from the west to northwest 15-18 kts W gusts
to 25-30 knots through the terminal forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday night... MainlyVFR with ceilings
forming late Sunday night. A few rain or snow showers possible
toward sunrise Monday.

Monday... Any MVFR ceilings lifting through the day with
scattered rain or snow showers ending.

Monday night through Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for paz039-040.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for nyz016-017-
025-055-056-062.

Winter storm warning until 8 am edt Saturday for nyz009-018-
036-037-044>046-057.

Synopsis... Mjm
near term... Mjm mwg
short term... Mwg
long term... Bjg
aviation... Djn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi32 min NNW 22 G 29
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi20 min WNW 25 G 34 33°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi38 min 32°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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SE9
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N4
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G6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi26 minNW 16 G 282.00 miLight Snow Blowing Snow32°F30°F96%1001.8 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi26 minNW 16 G 260.50 miSnow32°F27°F82%1003 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NE6NE5E8E9E8E4E3CalmW6W11W11W13
G20
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W12W14W15
G20
W15W15
G22
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1 day agoS10S11S11S15S14S11
G20
S8SE5S6SE4S6S7E5E6E5E5SE6SE10S13S9SE9SE8E8E8
2 days agoSE4SE4SE3E4SE3E4E4E3N3CalmE3E3E4E3SW10SW9SW8
G20
S11SW12
G18
65S5S8S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.