Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:33PM Sunday May 26, 2019 5:17 AM EDT (09:17 UTC) Moonrise 1:01AMMoonset 11:31AM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905260930;;474059 Fzus51 Kbuf 260602 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 202 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-260930- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 202 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Overnight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 260838
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
438 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A cold front moves south across the area Sunday. Meanwhile, a
disturbance tracking eastward from the midwest will bring a
chance of showers and storms ahead of the front Sunday afternoon
and early evening. High pressure building in from the north will
cause the front to progress south of the area Sunday night and
stall over the mid-atlantic region on memorial day. The risk for
showers and storms return midweek with this boundary gradually
returning back northward as a warm front. A cold front approaches
from the west Thursday.

Near term through Monday
230 am Sunday...

the last of the precip from last night's MCS has exited the region
overnight. Except for an isolated pop-up shower that may develop
toward the catskills, conditions should be dry across the area
through at least mid morning, if not midday. Breaks in the
stratus has allowed patchy fog to form in the typical sheltered
river valleys.

A cold front currently over the great lakes region early this
morning will progress to the s-se through the region this afternoon.

Meanwhile, an MCS that is currently located over the midwest will be
steered by belt of stronger (50+ kt) mid-level westerlies situated
on the northern periphery of the strong southeast u.S. This brings
the complex into the northern mid-atlantic region this afternoon and
evening. While the more robust lift and organized convection
associated with the MCS should stay to our southwest, there looks to
be some peripheral forcing ahead of the cold front to support
additional isolated to perhaps scattered showers and storms
farther northeast. Cams generally show this separate area of
convection initiating across nepa and nearby southern tier of
ny catskills region during peak heating. While the greater
instability and severe thunderstorm threat will be south of the
region, a few storms could become strong toward the wyoming
valley this afternoon. Regardless, those with outdoor plans this
afternoon should keep a close eye given the safety risk posed
by lightning.

Forecast high temperatures are generally in the mid 70s with
upper 70s possible in the lower elevations of the southern tier
of ny and lower to mid 80s possible in the wyoming valley. Nw
winds 10-15 mph will gust 20-25 mph this afternoon.

The cold front will move south of the region this evening. Any
lingering late-day convection should dissipate move south of
the wyoming valley around or shortly after sunset. A favorable
radiational cooling setup in most spots tonight as winds become
light and breaks in the clouds develop.

High pressure will continue to influence the region and allow
for pleasant weather conditions on memorial day. Periods of
sunshine and highs in the 70s can be expected.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday
While we start the night fairly dry another area of low
pressure and a warm front will begin to approach our region from
the west. Moisture is expected to be lifted and overrun the
frontal boundary for periods of showers late Monday night into
Tuesday. Some elevated instability may result in a rumble or two
of thunder as well. The warm front looks to stall over the
region on Tuesday so a few additional showers after the main
batch in the morning can not be ruled out. The operational gfs
looks to be a cool outlier from the model guidance overdoing the
effect of precipitation on temperatures. We continued to opt
for some warming on Tuesday but clouds should keep highs in the
60's into the 70's after temperatures start out in the 50's.

Rainfall looks to be around half an inch or so.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Tuesday night through Thursday night:
recent trends over the past several days have shown our time in the
warm sector ahead of the next front to be shorter and shorter. It
still looks like the warm front lifts into the far northern portions
of our area on Wednesday with the next cold front still to our west.

The cold front is then expected to push through the region sometime
Thursday or Thursday night. Plenty of moisture will be drawn into
our region with enough lift for a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. In terms of anything strong to severe it still looks
conditional dependent on frontal location and timing. Potential is
still present for some instability to advect northward into our
region behind the warm front. Given the trends with our region
potentially now struggling to get into the warm sector highs have
been lowered slightly. Temperatures should mainly range from the
50's through the 70's.

Friday and Saturday:
while a few ensemble members linger shower chances around it looks
like high pressure should push the front east of the region with a
window for drier conditions. A quick shot of cool dry air from
canada will knock temperatures downward a touch Friday. However,
return flow and some warming is anticipated by Saturday.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
Variable CIGS and vsbys across the cny and nepa terminals
overnight in wake of the rainfall earlier in the night.

Overnight stratus with MVFR fuel-alternate CIGS have been slow
to form across N WRN terminals (elm, ith, syr, rme). Conversely,
the low clouds at bgm and avp that arrived with last night's
rain never lifted, resulting in lifr ifr CIGS at bgm (although
cigs this low has been an outlier) and fuel alternate at avp.

Fog seems to be only impacting elm thus far with vsbys varying
considerably between 3 4sm and 10sm so far overnight.

Given the breaks in the stratus over the next few hours, the
potential for restrictions in fog should persist through dawn at
elm.

Improvement toVFR is expected by mid morning with low clouds
scattering out. A broken CU field (cigs 3500-5000 ft agl)
should develop later in the morning. Scattered showers and
storms expected to develop during peak heating this afternoon
mainly along and south of the cny-nepa border. Uncertainty in
timing coverage still too high to put in a tsra fm group for the
06z tafs, but it will strongly considered for the 12z taf
issuance (especially at avp). Light SW winds overnight become
w-nw after daybreak this morning and then NW by this afternoon.

Wind speeds of 8-12 kt will gusts to 20 kt this afternoon.

Any lingering convection in nepa early this evening should
dissipate move south of the region after sunset. The potential
for low clouds and valley fog a possibility as winds become
light and variable tonight.

Vfr conditions with a N wind 5-10 kt expected for memorial day.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... Some restrictions in showers late
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Thursday... MainlyVFR but some
restrictions from scattered showers and storms at times.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jrk
near term... Jrk
short term... Mwg
long term... Mwg
aviation... Jrk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi36 min SSW 8 G 9.9 66°F 1010.8 hPa62°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi78 min WSW 12 G 19 69°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi36 min 67°F 1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SE6
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W18
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W12
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W8
W4
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NE2
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G6
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2 days
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SE10
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G17
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G23
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G22
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G24
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G24
W18
G24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi24 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F62°F90%1011.4 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi24 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F60°F87%1011.3 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E7E5E5SE6S9S8S10S12
G19
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SE9SE11S17
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G26
S9S7S10SW5SW5SW8SW10SW6
1 day agoW13
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NW12NW13NW12NW9
G17
W12NW6W8NW7N6N4N4SE3CalmSE3E4SE5SE3E4
2 days agoSE5SE6E4E4E5S5CalmS10SW9SE6S6S16W17
G25
W18
G27
W17
G27
NW10
G18
W6W10
G19
W9W13W15
G22
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W14
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.