Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:01PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:42 PM EST (02:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:27PMMoonset 5:54AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201901200400;;619622 Fzus51 Kbuf 192340 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 640 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-200400- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 640 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through late Sunday night...
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Heavy freezing spray. Snow. Waves 7 to 11 feet building to 10 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds to 30 knots becoming north. Heavy freezing spray. Snow. Waves 10 to 13 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Heavy freezing spray. Snow. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..South winds less than 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots. Snow and rain during the day, then rain likely with a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 200043
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
743 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Synopsis
A major winter storm is still on track to move through the
region tonight and bring bitterly cold air on Sunday and Monday.

High pressure will move over the region Tuesday before giving
way to another low pressure system moving into the great lakes.

Near term through Sunday night
743 pm update...

forecast is on track for the most part. Still some question has
to how far north the warm layer aloft will push through NE pa into
s-central ny. Latest runs of the rap are a little less
aggressivewith the warm nose... So backed off the northward
extent of the freezing rain... And kept most of the ice into ne
pa, portions of delaware county and into most of sullivan
county ny. This caused snow amounts to be bumped up slightly
along the twin tiers where less freezing rain is expected. Most
areas south of the ny pa border will see the majority of their
snow on the front end of the system this evening and just after
midnight with heavy snowfall rates along and north of the warm
front. Overall evolution of the system remains unchanged with
amounts in central ny relatively the same or just slightly
higher.

Previous discussion...

major winter storm impacting the region...

the forecast is basically a nam GFS blend for the temperatures
with less influence from model blends to account for the
warming expected. Elements of the rgem, hrrr and rap used as
well for the precipitation (type) and wintry precipitation
amounts along with national center guidance.

Low pressure in the tennessee valley will continue to move
northeast into the mid-atlantic. Moisture will ride along a warm
front and lead to the development of widespread snow late this
afternoon. Snow is then expected through the evening with heavy
snow moving into southern tier region late this evening that
moves northwest into the finger lakes and ny thruway regions
overnight. Models have trended warmer both with a wedge of warm
air between 750-850 mb moving northeast through northeast pa and
for areas in ny from binghamton to the south and east. As a
result, snowfall totals were reduced significantly in NE pa
into the southern tier of ny where a changeover to sleet and
freezing rain is likely through the overnight. Warm air at the
surface looks to make it into the poconos and into the southern
catskills will even result in a change to rain around sunrise
Sunday.

Temperatures may fall off some this evening but then rise a
little bit through the night with the warm air advection. Most
of the region should stay in the 20's with NE pa and sullivan
county ny getting into the low and mid 30's by Sunday morning.

In terms of the mesoscale evolution, this forecast leans on the
nam placement of fgen forcing throughout the night and uses the
rgem and NAM nest as a basis for the precipitation type.

General snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are expected this
evening through the overnight. However, the NAM brings a heavier
band through the southern tier late this evening before
pivoting northwest overnight into the finger lakes and ny
thruway areas overnight. Given the amount of forcing with this
band snowfall of 2-4 inches per hour are possible for a few
hours at any given location. The band is expected to stay the
longest over the finger lakes areas up to syracuse then east
near the thruway which have the best chance to see closer to 18
inches of snow because of this band. A base line total for
areas that see all snow is about a foot.

This forecast is also more aggressive with a warm layer coming
northward tonight. This should enter the poconos by late
evening and reach NW to the southern tier for a few hours around
sunrise tomorrow. Several hours of sleet and freezing rain will
cut back on snowfall totals with even a change to rain in the
poconos into sullivan county ny.

Attention then turns to the cold on the backside of the low
Sunday with temperatures falling into the 10's and 20's
throughout the day with increasing winds into the 10-20 mph
range. Bufkit soundings do show the potential for 30 mph gusts
as well. As a result, wind chills will be falling below zero
during the day leading to dangerous cold. Lows Sunday night will
fall below zero in most spots with continuing strong
northwesterly winds leading to very low cold wind chills in the
-10 to -30 range.

Short term Monday through Tuesday
Monday... Upper level low moves from northern new york state to
coastal new england as the surface low spins over the canadian
maritimes. A strong pressure gradient will keep windy conditions
over the region resulting in very cold wind chill values as
highs only reach the single digits. Gusty winds will cause
blowing and drifting snow. Low level flow around 305 315 will
keep lake effect snow showers over the finger lakes region and
into the syracuse area. Snow accumulations will only be around
one inch due to short fetch, low inversion and dry airmass.

Monday night... Surface high builds over the region which will
end the lake flurries during the evening hours. Clearing skies
and diminishing winds will allow temperatures to generally fall
to zero to 10 below zero. The warmer areas of the finger lakes
and wyoming valley may stay in the single digits.

Tuesday... Surface high pressure moves from the vicinity to
western new england resulting in some airmass modification.

Highs will generally range in the upper teens to lower 20s.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: high pressure will be pulling
away from the area to the east Tuesday night. This will allow a
warmer air mass to begin lifting into the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning with a southerly flow. At the same time, the next
low pressure system will move east through the great lakes, with an
associated surface cold front elongating across our area. Some light
snow is possible ahead of this front Tuesday night. Then, model
consensus still suggests little erosion of cold temperatures in the
boundary layer, along with a warm layer aloft, mainly Wednesday
morning. This will set the stage for this to be more of a mixed
precipitation event Wednesday morning with a mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain, especially in the western half of our area. Mainly
snow at first further east. Then temperatures rise enough during the
afternoon to allow much of the precipitation to change to plain
rain, with some snow mixed in at higher elevations in the catskills
and northern oneida county. Of course as this is still several days
out, the specific details regarding who sees what type of
precipitation is uncertain and will need be fine-tuned as we get
closer. The cold air returns quickly on the back side of this system
Wednesday night, and therefore we are expecting precipitation to
change back to some snow showers for most of the area, with a mix of
rain and snow showers possible at lower elevations in nepa.

Temperatures Tuesday night will likely be non-diurnal with lows
occurring in the evening (teens to lower 20s). Mostly 20s for
lows Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday will quickly rise to the
mid to upper 30s, with some lower 40s in some spots.

Thursday through Saturday: models indicate that the above mentioned
front may stall well east of our area, perhaps offshore. Then there
seems to be somewhat good agreement, especially being this far out
that another low pressure system may ride along this stalled front
with its energy originating from the southeast gulf of mexico.

However, what is very uncertain (not much model agreement) is
exactly where the front stalls and therefore how far west east the
low tracks. It is entirely possible that this low develops too far
east for us to see much of an impact from it. Further west and we
could see another accumulating snow event, or a mixed precipitation
event if temperatures are warmer (as suggested by ecmwf). For now
due to this uncertainty, went with just chance pops for light snow
with a rain snow mix possible in our far southeastern zones for
Thursday with some lingering snow showers possible Thursday night.

Some continued lake-effect snow showers are possible Friday, mainly
across cny. Saturday's forecast is highly uncertain at this time.

The ECMWF and canadian keeps the area mostly dry with high pressure
in control. The GFS has another weak system approaching from the
west. For now put in a chance of snow showers in our forecast to
account for the uncertainty. Temperatures will gradually be
returning to below normal during this period. Highs will likely be
in the lower to mid 30s Thursday, mid to upper 20s Friday, and upper
teens to lower 20s Saturday. Lows likely in the teens Thursday night
and single digits to lower teens Friday night.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
A winter storm will pass just south of the region tonight and
Sunday morning bringing major impacts to the terminals. During
the mid late afternoon period ifr conditions in snow will
develop across all terminals. Overnight, moderate heavy snow is
forecast with conditions expected to be near airport minimums.

At kbgm, a sleet snow mix is expected between 06z-12z. At kavp,
a freezing rain sleet mix is expected around 04z with a
transition to just rain after 08z. Early Sunday morning as the
heavier snow pushes east conditions will gradually improve to
ifr alternate required. At kbgm, precipitation will change back
to snow showers by 12z and around 15z at kavp. Strong winds
later Sunday morning through the afternoon will produce blowing
and drifting snow.

Low level winds shear for kavp overnight. Otherwise,
east southeast overnight at 5-10 knots becoming northwest Sunday
morning and increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 35
knots by afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday night... Occasional snow showers
restrictions and perhaps blowing snow, mainly ny terminals.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Another system moving in with
snow or wintry mix and associated restrictions.

Thursday... Restrictions possible in light snow.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm warning until 4 pm est Sunday for paz038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.

Ny... Winter storm warning until 4 pm est Sunday for nyz009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

Synopsis... Mwg
near term... Bjt mwg
short term... Rrm
long term... Bjg
aviation... Djp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi48 min ENE 7 G 9.9 15°F 1015.8 hPa13°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi42 min ENE 24 G 28 21°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi48 min 22°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi48 minENE 111.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist18°F15°F88%1015 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi48 minNE 40.75 miLight Snow15°F10°F80%1016 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W6W5W7W4NW9NW8NW7NW6NW6NW5NW4NW4CalmCalmN4N6N4N5N4N3E8E8NE11
1 day agoE5E5E5S9S8SE5SE4SE6SE6SE5CalmS6S44SW7W10W12W10NW7SW10W8W9W11W12
2 days agoN6N9N7N5NE4CalmNE3NE4E4E6E6E6E3E4CalmCalmE6E6NE7CalmE4E7E8E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.