Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:37PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 9:25 AM EST (14:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:35PMMoonset 3:49AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 931 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Overnight..South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow and rain showers likely in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 30 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 11 to 15 feet, then subsiding to 9 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming north 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers during the day, then rain showers likely Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201811201000;;566472 FZUS51 KBUF 200235 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 931 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-201000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 201145
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
645 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Seasonably chilly with a few snow showers and valley rain
showers around today. Turning colder tonight with light lake
effect snow north of the new york thruway. Then, an arctic
front moves through midday Wednesday with additional snow showers
and squalls likely. Northwest winds become quite gusty and a
quick accumulation of snow could create hazardous travel
conditions. Cold canadian high pressure will move over the
region for thanksgiving bringing near record cold conditons.

Near term through Wednesday
400 am update... Lingering band of light snow associated with the
waning area of isentropic lift along the i-88 corridor early
this morning is quickly moving out. Decided to drop the
previous winter weather advisories for all areas, as only an
additional inch or less of snow is expected prior to daybreak.

Shortwave disturbance is evident across lower michigan heading
into ontario at this time. The broad upper level trough and
associated disturbance will move through our area later today
into tonight. This is a weak system and is only expected to
bring scattered snow and lower elevation rain showers late
morning into the evening. Our area will experience weak cold air
advection much of the day, with the the CAA really increase this
evening. Daytime highs reach the mid-30s to lower 40s this
afternoon. Winds turn northwest, between 8-15 mph.

850mb temps slowly fall between -4 to -7c by late afternoon,
then to around -12c tonight. This should allow a lake response
to develop, with periods of snow showers along a 280-290 flow
tonight. The flow backs more southwesterly late tonight ahead of
the next clipper system. Areas north of the ny thruway could
see 1 to 3 inches of snow overnight. Elsewhere, just a few
flurries are expected tonight, under partly to mostly cloudy
skies. Overnight lows dip down into the lower to mid-20s.

Wednesday: starts off with weak warm air advection as the
southwesterly flow increases ahead of the next clipper system,
which passes by well to our north along st. Lawrence valley
region of far northern ny. This clipper will however drag a
powerful arctic frontal boundary through our area midday or
early afternoon. Behind this boundary very strong cold air
advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere will
commence... As 850mb temps fall to around -15c shortly after
sunset. 925 mb temps fall below -10c by 00z Thursday. Steep low
level lapse rates along with small amounts of modeled MLCAPE in
the afternoon indicate a good probability to see convective type
snow showers and squalls both along and behind the arctic
boundary. Approximate start time of the potential snow squalls
would be midday along the ny thruway from syracuse to
utica rome. Then, advancing southward to the southern tier of ny
early afternoon, and finally into NE pa by mid to late
afternoon. These snow showers and squalls could make for
hazardous travel conditions with quickly changing conditions.

Snow squalls could be locally heavy, reducing visibility and
causing snow covered icy roads. Bufkit sounding data indicates a
well mixed boundary layer through about 725mb Wednesday
afternoon, with the potential for strong and gusty northwest
winds increasing. For now, believe winds will be mostly 15-25
mph, with gusts up to 35 mph... But locally higher winds are not
impossible. These winds will also create areas of blowing snow,
especially in central ny. Surface temperatures may bump up
briefly into the upper 20s to mid-30s late morning or midday...

but then fall back through the 20s by late afternoon or early
evening areawide. Lake effect snow showers continue on a 310-330
flow into the early evening hours. May eventually need winter
weather advisories for parts of the area, considering all the
potential hazards (snow squalls, strong winds, blowing snow,
lake effect snow, low wind chills etc)... But for now will just
continue to mention all of this in the latest hwo. If planning
to travel Wednesday afternoon, be prepared for these above
mentioned winter conditions.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
The main theme for this period will be record to near record cold as
an arctic airmass moves through the region. Wednesday night lows will
generally range from 5 to 15 degrees. Highs on thanksgiving will
mainly reside in the teens and thanksgiving night will be even
colder with lows mainly in the single digits.

Wednesday night following the arctic front scattered snow showers
some possibly heavy will be over central new york and northern tier
of pennsylvania with heavier lake effect snow showers southeast of
lake ontario with a steering flow 300 310. By late evening low level
flow becomes northwest resulting in a shorter lake fetch, this
combined with limited moisture will weaken the activity as it moves
into the finger lakes region and southern tier. Snow accumulations
around 2 inches will be possible early from onondaga county across
madison northern chenango and into otsego. Snow accumulations once
the wind shifts to the northwest will be less than one inch.

Thanksgiving with be mostly sunny with surface high pressure over
the region. A few morning flurries will be possible in the finger
lakes but no accumulation is forecast. A starry but frigid night is
likely thanksgiving night.

Long term Friday through Monday
The extended forecast will start dry with temperatures gradually
modifying as upper level ridging begins and high pressure moves off
the east coast. Highs Friday will range in the mid 20s to around 30
with lows Friday night in the teens to lower 20s.

Saturday, low pressure moving into the mid atlantic region will
spread precipitation across the area. The GFS is faster with onset
then the ECMWF so will mention a light wintry mix from i81 west
during the morning but by afternoon temperatures modify enough for
just rain. The rain will continue into Saturday night before
tapering off. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s with lows
Saturday night in the mid upper 30s.

On Sunday area will reside between systems although scattered rain
showers are still possible.

Sunday night into Tuesday, a more significant system will track from
the mid west northeast across the ohio valley and into new england.

Another wet period looks likely Monday into Monday night. Highs
Sunday and Monday will be in the lower to middle 40s.

By Tuesday mainly scattered rain showers are expected behind
departing low. Highs will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Patchy ifr lifr fog and freezing fog has formed early this
morning INVOF kith, kbgm, kelm and kavp. The steady
precipitation has ended. Expect a round of light snow showers to
move through the ny terminals later this morning and into the
afternoon hours, bringing occasional MVFR CIGS vis. Lingering
lake effect snow showers continue into the evening hours for
ksyr and krme, while the other terminals becomeVFR after
21 00z. Scattered, borderlineVFR MVFR -shsn continue through
the overnight INVOF ksyr and krme through the overnight. Cigs
rise up to between 030-060 for the rest of the terminals
overnight.

West-northwest winds 6-12 kts today, turn southwesterly later
tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night... Possible snow squalls and
brief, yet significant restrictions as an arctic front slides
through the region, followed by lake effect snow showers and
flurries. Gusty west-northwest winds 15-30 kts.

Thursday...VFR, except for intermittent restrictions from lake
effect flurries ksyr-kith-kelm-kbgm.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday... Restrictions perhaps redeveloping in lower CIGS and
light rain.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mjm
near term... Mjm
short term... Mlj rrm
long term... Mlj rrm
aviation... Mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi56 min SSE 8 G 13 33°F 1012.8 hPa28°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi86 min SW 6 G 7 35°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi56 min 35°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi32 minN 010.00 miOvercast30°F27°F88%1013.3 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi32 minN 09.00 miOvercast33°F27°F78%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W7W7W11W4SW5CalmSW3CalmCalmE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE4S4CalmE4E5E6E6E5E6NE4E5E5E7E3NE3E3E5E5CalmCalmCalmSW3W5W7
2 days agoW11W11W15W14W12W12SW10SW12W12W13W12W7W7NW8NW6NW6W3CalmCalmCalmE3E3E3E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.