Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 2:20 AM   Moonset 12:30 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405020330;;451648 Fzus51 Kbuf 012047 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 447 pm edt Wed may 1 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-020330- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 447 pm edt Wed may 1 2024
Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Patchy fog this evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Thursday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 020504 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 104 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather has returned thru Friday. Temperatures will remain above average for early May. Then, a brief cool down with periods of rain showers is expected for the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
605 PM Update...

No major changes with this update. Blended current observations into the forecast. Near-term forecast remains on track.

200 PM Update...

Clouds are slowly dissipating early this afternoon as drier air mixes into the boundary layer from aloft. Clear to mostly clear skies are expected tonight as a surface high slides off to the east. Southerly winds will pick up overnight and with dry air mixing in, decided to keep fog out of the grids for the overnight hours. A cold front moving through as a weak low passes through to the north early tomorrow morning with sprinkles added to much of CNY as the front should be mostly dry but a few isolated showers can not be ruled out.

Ridging begins to build in tomorrow with NW flow advecting in cooler air so highs will be a little cooler than today. Dry weather will continue through Thursday night with the ridge axis approaching.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
350 PM Update...

Quiet weather will remain in place Friday with upper level ridging in place. Light southerly flow and warm advection will lead to a warmer day for most in the afternoon with highs in the 70s. Surface high pressure will be shifting to the east during the afternoon and evening giving way to a front approaching from the west. This will bring a chance of showers to the area Saturday, with showers becoming more likely (55-70%) Saturday afternoon and night. With the increase in clouds and showers, it will turn cooler Saturday with highs in the 60s. Lows Saturday night will be largely in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
350 PM Update...

Showers remain likely into Sunday, especially through early afternoon, as the front mentioned above continues to slowly press eastward. This will keep conditions cool with highs in the 50s and 60s. Another front approaching from the west will keep a slight chance of showers around into Sunday night. However, the main upper support with this feature is expected to pass by off to our north leading to more isolated activity.

Temperatures will be back on the rise again Monday through midweek, making a return to the 70s. Weak surface high pressure does work its way back into the area Monday leading to a largely dry day. A warm front looks to move in from the south and west and into our area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a chance of showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly VFR conditions can be expected through the period with high pressure building into the region today. There will be a weak disturbance passing across northern NY this morning and there is a small chance for MVFR rain showers at RME during the early morning hours, however confidence is too low at this time so added -SHRA with Tempo group, but left conditions VFR with those passing showers this morning.

Model guidance has also pulled back on the chances for MVFR ceilings at RME after sunrise today, so have removed any restrictions from the previous forecast with this update.

Otherwise, VFR clouds will diminish and clear out by mid to late afternoon today and winds turn west- northwest with gusts of 10-20 kts.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t'storms possible.

Saturday into Monday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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