Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 4:24 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405051530;;652208 Fzus51 Kbuf 050758 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 358 am edt Sun may 5 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-051530- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 358 am edt Sun may 5 2024
Today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Periods of rain through early afternoon, then scattered showers late. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - Light and variable winds. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 051732 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 132 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers across the region will end late today or this evening.
On Monday high pressure builds in with dry weather that lasts into Tuesday. Low pressure systems will bring additional showers from Wednesday through the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Adjusted the coverage of forecasted showers a bit with the mid- morning and noontime updates based on radar trends. Discussion below on track.

6am update...

Just very minor changes. Forecast going as planned.

3 am update...

Rain has moved into the entire area now and will continue into the afternoon as a slow moving warm front moves east. The front will push through this afternoon. Tonight rain showers will be lighter as a dying front moves through with limited moisture.
Monday there could be a few lingering light showers from the southern tier into NEPA. Rainfall totals will be around half an inch for most but along I90 in Oneida County amounts could be over an inch. In Oneida a little better low level convergence and lift. Still nothing to worry about in respect to flooding.

Highs today in the 50s for most but some clearing may get into the central southern tier and Finger Lakes late afternoon so highs there around 60. Tonight lows from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Monday more sunshine so highs from the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
4 AM Update...

High pressure building in Monday night will lead to clearing skies with light northerly winds. This will set us up for a relatively chilly night, with lows dipping into the lower-40s across portions of CNY. Noticed the old MET MOS guidance is going for 37 at ITH, and the NBM 5th Percentile also indicates upper-30s across a wider area. This is likely a little on the low side, though sheltered valleys could drop just below 40.

Southerly flow will bring a quick rebound in temperatures on Tuesday, which is shaping up to be a fine day across the whole area, as highs reach well into the 70s with light winds and Mostly Sunny skies. Clouds will begin to increase Tuesday evening as weak low pressure heads across the Lower Great Lakes.
A warm front ahead of this system will bring some rain showers to the area Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
4 AM Update...

Showers will lift north towards the Thruway along with the warm front early Wednesday, but with weak low pressure drifting ESE across NY state, the cold front won't be far behind, spreading showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the area later Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Lowered temperatures a few degrees north of the Twin Tiers where precip will be more prevalent. Otherwise, we still look to hold onto 70s Wednesday across the region.

The Wednesday system will usher in a rather unsettled period with temperatures cooling through the weekend. The next system looks to bring widespread rain showers to the area Thursday as low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley, and weak low pressure develops off the Delmarva Peninsula. Low pressure looks to stall out across the lower Great Lakes heading into the weekend, with possible further coastal low development helping to keep precip slung back across the area. Rain showers look to continue into the weekend, and highs on Saturday could well be stuck in the 50s.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Generally MVFR and IFR celings as a result of fairly widespread showers. Ceilings should lower to IFR this evening at all TAF sites. More uncertainity is present with the visibility as data is split on MVFR visibilities from stratus or IFR/LIFR from fog overnight. For now, leaned more toward a stratus deck for the overnight hours. Ceilings look to be very slow to lift on Monday. While mainly light outside of isolated 15-20 knot gusts this afternoon, the winds will shift from southerly to westerly and northwesterly tonight.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected, ceilings lift slowly between 18-22Z Monday.

Tuesday night through Friday... Periods of showers with some restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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