Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:35PM Saturday May 27, 2017 7:48 AM EDT (11:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:27AMMoonset 9:37PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 731 Pm Edt Fri May 26 2017
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Areas of drizzle. Areas of fog after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Areas of fog in the morning. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201705270300;;257129 FZUS51 KBUF 262339 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 731 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ043-044-270300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 271050
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
650 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
A system moving by to the south may brush northeast pennsylvania
with a few showers today. Otherwise mostly dry weather is
expected until the next system brings showers and the chance of
thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. A generally unsettled
pattern will persist through much of next week.

Near term through Sunday
300 am... Still some very weak returns being seen on radar with
some light showers being reported around syracuse. Otherwise
just looking at mostly cloudy skies with low stratus and areas
of light mist and fog.

Heading into early Saturday, any lingering light showers or
drizzle over central ny looks to diminish by morning as the
deeper moisture and lift moves off to the east. Otherwise, do
expect lingering low level moisture to result in continuing
mostly cloudy skies. Also, there will be a dying convective
complex that will move east toward the area however since the
upper level flow turns more nw, this should cause the system to
dive mostly to our south so we only mention low chances of
showers over NE pa and keep most of central ny dry. Temps will
still be on the cool side with highs mostly in the middle to
upper 60s.

For Saturday night, weak ridging will briefly move over the area
resulting in skies becoming mainly clear with light winds. This
will result in a good chance for some valley fog to develop by
morning as temps cool to dew points. Lows will be cool... Mostly
upper 40s to low 50s.

For Sunday, early morning valley fog quickly burns off with some
sunshine before clouds thicken up ahead of the next system
approaching from the west. Most of the day should be dry but we
do introduce a chance of showers and the risk of thunder to the
western southern tier by late day. The warm advection pattern
developing ahead of this system will result in 850 mb temps
rising to around 12 c which will result in highs generally
reaching the low to mid 70s.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
330 am update...

main concern in the short term is focused around the passage of a
cold front and the increased potential for showers and a few
isolated weak storms... Mainly Sunday night and Monday morning. Will
also see a second front move through Tuesday afternoon with more
showers and isolated storms.

Upper level ridging will be shifting to E NE Sunday evening as the
next upper low drops in from central canada across the ERN great
lakes Sunday night and Monday morning. A lead short wave ahead of
the main cutoff low will have a surface front associated with it and
a narrow corridor of deep layer moisture and strong dynamics.

Elevated instability should be sufficient for a few weak storms
through Monday morning. The main threats will be cloud to ground
lightning, brief heavy rain and gusty winds. The heaviest
precip is expected to move in from the west SW around midnight
along the twin tiers and the finger lakes... And track to the
e NE through the morning hours fairly quickly. The deep layer
moisture is expected to move to the east ahead of the front with
a wedge of drier air filtering in on the back side. There will
likely be enough broad large scale lifting going on to keep a
relative abundance of clouds around through the rest of memorial
day, and possibly a few isolated rain showers, but the threat
for continuous rain through the holiday afternoon evening is
fairly low. A few breaks in the clouds cannot be ruled out, but
given the pattern, not very optimistic. Morning rain is expected
to amount to a quarter to half inch at most.

Weak ridging and a drier air mass Monday night Tuesday morning will
likely keep weather conditions quiet. Can't rule out a stray
sprinkle or periods of drizzle though. A secondary front will slide
in from the west late Tuesday morning and increase the potential for
a few rain showers through noon. This front will interact with a
gradually destabilizing boundary layer Tue afternoon... Bl cape
around 200-500 j kg, steep lapse rates... To produce a better chance
of scattered showers and storms. Thunderstorms should remain weak.

May see another tenth to quarter of an inch.

Temperatures will remain steady and nearly seasonal with highs in
the 60s and 70s... And lows in the 50s.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
330 am update...

the parent upper low across canada will rotate ewd Tuesday night
through Friday and bring a slug of cooler air south across ny and pa
late this week... Along with periods of showers and storms. The upper
low will have a series of embedded waves rotate around it as it
tracks through quebec... Which will likely trigger the showers. The
threat for storms is tough to nail down at this point. If an
embedded wave swings through central ny NE pa during peak heating of
the afternoon, the convective potential will be enhanced with
steeper lapse rates and more instability. The one limiting factor
will be the presence of cooler air within the boundary layer and the
lack of any significant deep layer moisture. So, will continue with
chance pops during the afternoon evening hours Wednesday and
Thursday and lower slight chc pops during the morning and over night
hours.

The upper low begins to lift out of the area Thursday night and
most of the area starts to become under the influence of upper level
ridging and weak warm air advection. Temperatures will slowly warm
back into the lower mid 70s as the work week comes to an end... And
the potential for rain decreases under weak high pressure.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Low stratus persists into this morning with ifr likely until 14z
for kbgm while kith ksyr will continue to fluctuate between
fuel alternate MVFR and ifr until 14z. Conditions are slightly
better at kavp and kelm where fuel alternate MVFR will persist
until mid morning with CIGS lifting beyond this time. All sites
are expected to beVFR by 18z.

Skies clear tonight as a ridge briefly moves in and this will
set up favorable conditions for valley fog at kelm with ifr
likely beginning around 8z. Remaining sites stayVFR.

Surface winds will be light (5 kt or less) throughout the
period.

Outlook...

Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Monday through Wednesday... Restrictions possible from scattered
showers and perhaps thunder.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Pcf
near term... Pcf
short term... Bjt
long term... Bjt rrm
aviation... Kah pcf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi48 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 54°F 1012 hPa (+0.5)53°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi48 min WSW 5.1 G 6 58°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi48 min 58°F 1012.3 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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SE6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi54 minNE 34.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist55°F55°F100%1011.7 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi54 minN 01.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F93%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3W8W8W9NW10W8
G19
NW9NW11NW10NW9NW10W6W7NW4NW5W3NW3W3W5W3W4NW4CalmNE3
1 day agoE12E14
G21
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E11E14E6NE7E5E9E9E10NE7E9E6NE5NE7NE5NE3E4CalmNW3
2 days agoE4E4NE3NE73NE5SE7
G17
E5SE11SE7SE8SE9E5E9E5E5SE6E7E8E8E5E8E8E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.