Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:34PM Monday May 27, 2019 8:28 AM EDT (12:28 UTC) Moonrise 1:29AMMoonset 12:30PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905271515;;533554 Fzus51 Kbuf 270819 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 419 Am Edt Mon May 27 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-271515- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 419 Am Edt Mon May 27 2019
Today..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..West winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 271055
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
655 am edt Mon may 27 2019

Synopsis
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures can be expected today
as a cold front continues to move south of the region and high
pressure builds in from canada. High pressure retreats to our
north and east on Tuesday as warm front lifts northward into the
area. This front will move back to the south late Tuesday after
an area of low pressure passes through. The chance for showers
and storms will persist through the end of the week with the
front stalled nearby.

Near term through Tuesday
640 am update... Latest goes-16 satellite imagery shows the
river valley fog is quickly dissipating over the past hour. Only
minor changes were included (mainly to account for the
inhomogeneities in temperatures dewpoints early this morning)
in the latest forecast update.

340 am update...

the cold front has moved south of the area last night and was
located near the i-95 mid-atlantic corridor early this morning.

A light NW flow behind the front has advected drier air into the
region. The potential for patchy radiational fog early this
morning is highly confined to near the pa ny border- where skies
have cleared overnight and the ground was wet following
yesterday's showers and storms.

Luckily the weather will be cooperative for the various outdoor
festivities planned this memorial day thanks to high pressure
building in from canada. Dry conditions and near normal
temperatures in the low to mid 70s is in store. Northerly flow
off lake ontario will bring in some clouds to cny but there
should still be more Sun than clouds in general today.

Low pressure will track eastward across the upper midwest late
tonight and through the region on Tuesday. Southerly flow ahead of
the system will cause the aforementioned boundary to lift back
northward as a warm front. Consequentially, the break from the wet
will be short lived with showers returning late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Initial band of showers could become widespread for a
period Tuesday morning since the isentropic lift and low-level jet
dynamics looks robust organized. There may be a break behind it
toward midday before additional convection develops along the front
during peak heating. There is plenty of spread seen in the 00z href
regarding how far north convection will be able to become surface
based south of the warm front and how much will the boundary layer
be able to destabilize in the warm sector given the earlier rain and
persistent cloud cover during the day. This will be important for
determining where the risk for severe thunderstorms sets up.

Following the latest d2 outlook from spc, the greatest potential for
this to happen will be across the southern tier of ny and nepa
where a slight risk for severe storms exists. Started with the
nbm for forecast temperatures Tuesday and were then blended
with the 00z NAM nam nest to enhance the SW to NE temperature
gradient that is likely to setup over the region. Forecast
highs range from the mid 50s in the western mohawk valley to
the mid 70s in nepa and chemung valley-steuben county.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
A warm frontal boundary looks to slowly move northward through the
region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Quite a bit of
uncertainty on how far northward this front gets is still present.

Ne pa and the southern tier should get into the warm sector by
Wednesday afternoon. Timing differences within the modeling further
north range from Wednesday afternoon to only briefly Thursday
afternoon with the warm frontal passage. A cold front is then
expected to push through the region sometime Thursday night. Plenty
of moisture will be drawn into our region with enough lift for a few
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. In terms of anything strong to
severe it still looks conditional dependent on frontal location and
timing. Our region has the best chance to be in the warm sector
Thursday and have instability advect into the region. 0-6 km
bulk shear values look very favorable for thunderstorms
organizing into a squall line ahead of the cold front with a
wind threat if the instability is realized. Highs should range
through the 70's and 80's with lows in the 50's and 60's with
these values dependent on shower coverage and the location of
the warm front.

Long term Friday through Sunday
Some uncertainty is still present with a fair number of ensembles
slower with the departing mid-level trough on Friday. If this
feature is slower moving out a few showers would occur. The GFS and
cmc are slower with this but the ECMWF has trended slightly more
progressive. With that said, we will maintain a slight chance of
showers that does not show up on the point and click web forecast.

High pressure looks to build in temporally before our next cold
front and rain thunderstorm chance on Sunday. Generally looking at
lows in the 50's and highs in the 70's.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Any brief restrictions from fog stratus at elm should end before
the start of the 12z tafs. OtherwiseVFR today and tonight. A
light variable wind early this morning will become n-nw 5-10 kt
late this morning and afternoon. Winds become light and shift
out of the NE or E tonight.

Showers overspread the terminals from W to E within a few hours
of sunrise Tuesday. CIGS should lower to MVFR shortly after the
precip arrives Tuesday morning. Fuel-alternate to perhaps ifr
restrictions possible Tuesday afternoon north of a warm front
(most likely at rme). Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop during the afternoon hours but timing and location still
highly uncertain at this point.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday... MainlyVFR but some
restrictions from scattered showers and storms at times.

Friday...VFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jrk
near term... Jrk
short term... Mwg
long term... Mwg
aviation... Jrk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi47 min W 7 G 8 49°F 1016.8 hPa45°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi29 min W 4.1 G 6 54°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi47 min 54°F 1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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SW12
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SE14
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G26
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W17
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G6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi35 minW 310.00 miA Few Clouds60°F52°F75%1016.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi35 minWSW 410.00 miFair58°F50°F75%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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NW12W13W9NW9W93SW4W4SW5SW3W4CalmCalmSW3CalmW3
1 day agoE5SE6S9S8S10S12
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S9S7S10SW5SW5SW8SW10SW6SW8W10W13
2 days agoNW13
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W14
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NW12NW13NW12NW9
G17
W12NW6W8NW7N6N4N4SE3CalmSE3E4SE5SE3E4E3E7E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.