Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:47PM Saturday February 23, 2019 10:53 AM EST (15:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:49PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201902232230;;386073 Fzus51 Kbuf 231347 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 847 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-232230- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 847 Am Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.storm warning in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning...
This afternoon..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves in ice free areas 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 50 knot storms in the afternoon. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 11 to 15 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet.
Sunday night..West storms to 50 knots. Rain and snow showers likely in the evening, then snow likely overnight. Waves 18 to 23 feet building to 21 to 26 feet. Waves occasionally around 33 feet.
Monday..West gales to 45 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow likely. Waves 19 to 24 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 31 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 231452
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
952 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
A pair of cyclones will track into the northeast tonight and
Sunday, bringing rain and strong winds to ny and pa. Cooler
temperatures and scattered snow showers will follow early next
week.

Near term through Sunday
955 am update...

though temperatures didn't fall much overnight due to thickening
clouds, we are running colder than planned this morning as the
sun fails to break through.

We updated temperature and dew point grids through mid-afternoon
and expect a gradual warming into the upper-30s and lower-40s.

Rain showers will approach our southwestern forecast area
between 4 pm and 6 pm.

630 am update...

with the sunrise update, we have seen some breaks in the
clouds. This has led to some quick radiational cooling just
before sunrise in some spots. So, temperatures were adjusted for
the next couple of hours to account for this. Also, continue
mention of patchy fog with several observations showing a very
light fog in place.

High pressure over the region will give way to dual low pressure
systems tracking toward the region from the southwest. One
center will head into the great lakes with the second tracking
up the east coast. Clouds will increase and thicken later today
as the low pressure systems move northward toward our region.

Highs should be able to get to around 40 or in the low 40's
today.

Moisture will overrun a warm front leading to several rounds of
light precipitation tonight and on Sunday. Enough low level
cold air looks to be in place across sullivan, otsego and
delaware counties for light freezing and sleet this evening
before a change to rain around sunrise Sunday. Given the
potential for some icy spots, a winter weather advisory has
been issued for these counties. Widely patchy and brief
freezing rain can not be ruled in other areas east of i-81 in pa
and ny. However, coverage looks too low for an advisory but
will mention this in the hwo. Any icing looks rather light and
under a tenth of an inch regionwide. Using a hi-res nam, rgem
and national blend gives us overall QPF amounts of 1 4 to 1 2
inch by late Sunday. Even with some snow melting that is not
enough QPF for flooding concerns at this time.

The hi-res NAM was also utilized with temperatures, showing the
low-level cold hang on longer which typically occurs in these
setups. Temperatures look to start the night in the 30's and
slowly rise by Sunday morning as the warm front moves through.

With our region in the warm sector on Sunday, steadier
precipitation should gradually become more showery. Potential
is present for temperatures to quickly spike ahead of a cold
front expected to pass through late Sunday. Timing a temperature
spike ahead of the front, perhaps as warm as the 50's in a few
spots provides some uncertainty. Winds will also be on the
increase as well with the developing low pressure system with
westerly gusts by late afternoon in the 30-40 mph range. This
seems very attainable based on a look of modeled soundings
showing steep lapse rates and favorable conditions for the
stronger gusts to be transported to the surface.

Short term Sunday night through Monday
335 am update...

little change in the models for this update. Still showing the
potential for damaging winds from late Sunday through Monday.

Strongest winds will be over the finger lakes to near syr that
will be closer the rapidly deepening low and tightest pressure
grid. Also, areas nearer the lake will see less surface
frictional loss in the flatter terrain. Other very strong gusts
will be over the higher terrain all the way east into the
catskills.

Only other weather note for the period is the return to
seasonable temperatures and lake effect snow showers which will
likely accumulate a few inches over the typical areas in the
northern zones.

Previous discussion continues below.

***potential increasing for very strong, damaging winds for the
northern tier of pennsylvania and all of central ny late Sunday into
Monday***
Sunday: a powerful storm system will pass by well to the northwest
of our area. However, this system will drag a strong cold front
through the region during the day Sunday. Sunday morning the
forecast area will still be in the warm sector of this system, with
gusty south winds, periods of rain, and mild temperatures. Still
cannot rule out some very localized freezing rain over the higher
terrain of northern sullivan county during the early morning hours.

Also, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder as the strong front moves
through mid to late morning. Soundings show small amounts of
instability, mostly elevated. As the front GOES through strong cold
air advection develops Sunday afternoon, but surface temperatures
still rise into the upper 40s to mid-50s areawide. On and off rain
showers continue into Sunday afternoon, with total rainfall amounts
(sat night - Sunday) ranging from one-third to three-quarters of an
inch. Southwest winds increase between 15-25 mph, with gusts up to
40 mph by sunset.

Sunday night and Monday: strong cold air advection and
increasing wind energy moves into our forecast area behind the
cold front. Strong pressure rises and deep mixing produces the
strongest winds after midnight, working from west to east across
the region. With the storm track up across central canada
(970-975mb low), the strongest winds still seem to be focused
from the northern tier of pa up across central ny... With the
maxima potentially setting up from near penn yan to syracuse and
rome. Brought the high wind watch a few counties south and
east... Now including bradford, susquehanna, northern wayne,
sullivan (ny) and points north west. GFS and mav guidance has
stronger winds compared to the NAM met guidance... But with this
set up feel there is at least a 50 percent chance of reaching
those higher winds (gusts greater than 58 mph) within the watch
area... .Gfs bufkit momentum transfer shows peak gusts 50-58 kts
across much of our forecast area... But this may be a little over
done down toward scranton wilkes-barre area. GFS 30 meter winds
are over 50-55kts Sunday night into Monday morning. Boundary
layer winds also peak during this 06z - 15z Monday time period.

Daytime mixing increase and keeps winds strong gusty through
midday or afternoon Monday. These wind speeds certainly have the
potential to take down trees and powerlines. Wind gusts may not
drop below 30-35 mph until Monday evening... So power outages
may be long duration, especially in the watch area.

The other, much more minor issue will be the lake
effect upslope snow showers this period across central
ny... Especially cortland and norwich north. In this area could see
localized 2-4 inches amounts, with more widespread 1-2 inch amounts.

Any snow that does fall and accumulate will certainly be
blowing drifting around. Temperatures fall into the mid-20s to near
30 Sunday night... Then only warm a few degrees Monday... Into the
upper 20s and lower 30s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
335 am update...

relatively quiet weather period with occasional light snow or
snow showers and seasonable temperatures. High pressure over the
northern plains noses east to the mid atlantic keeping a supply
of cold air on a northwest flow. Made a few adjustments to the
weather and temperatures nearer the latest guidance, but overall
the forecast remains unchanged.

350 pm update...

Monday night and Tuesday features cold weather, with lingering lake
effect snow showers on a wnw flow. Should be mainly dry and partly
cloudy for NE pa this period. Snow accumulations look light for this
period across north-central ny. Northwest winds decrease, between 10-
20 mph Monday night, then 8 to 15 mph Tuesday. Cold overnight lows
in the 10s... With highs mostly in the 20s. Uncertainty returns
Tuesday night as the GFS brings a weather system through the area
and a period of light snow. Meanwhile the ecwmf and cmc sweep
another, almost arctic front through the area from the north with
just scattered snow showers. For now, used a blend of the latest
guidance which gave chance pops for snow showers. Cold with lows in
the upper single digits north to mid teens south.

Wednesday's forecast is highly uncertain. The GFS and canadian
continue to show a weak wave moving through the area from the
midwest, which may bring some light snow to the area, depending on
the track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to show the area under
high pressure with mainly dry conditions. For now, kept chance pops
in the forecast for light snow due to the uncertainty. Should the
gfs canadian solution pan out, some lingering snow showers are
possible Wednesday night, especially in cny where there could be
lake effect or lake enhanced snow showers. High pressure then likely
builds in for Thursday through Friday, bringing drier conditions.

Temperatures during this period will remain seasonable with highs
generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows generally in the teens
and lower 20s.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr with light winds into the afternoon. Very light fog is
possible till mid- morning at all TAF sites with the highest
chances at kavp and kelm. Winds later today will increase a bit
from the south and southeast gradually through tonight. Some
wind gusts by late evening may approach 15-20 knots. Ceilings
will lower, likely to MVFR with rain moving in after 00z Sunday.

Llws is likely to occur starting around 06z Monday.

Outlook...

Sunday morning... Restrictions likely with rain. Low level wind
shear likely from strong ssw low level jet.

Sunday afternoon through Monday... Rain showers changing back to
snow showers but also mainly impacting the ny terminals with
intermittent restrictions. Strong gusty winds expected with the
highest winds at ksyr.

Monday night and Tuesday... MainlyVFR conditions but brief
restrictions possible at krme ksyr in snow showers.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Restrictions possible in light
snow.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for paz038>040.

Ny... High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for nyz024-045-046-055>057-062.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 5 am est
Sunday for nyz046-057-062.

High wind watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for nyz009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044.

Synopsis... Djp
near term... Djp mwg
short term... Dgm mjm
long term... Bjg dgm
aviation... Mwg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi54 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9 32°F 1030.1 hPa (-1.8)20°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi54 min SE 9.9 G 12 32°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi54 min 33°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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N6
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SE8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi2 hrsSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F18°F77%1031.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi2 hrsSSE 310.00 miFair27°F17°F66%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6W5NW5W4NW5NW8NW7NW7NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE3CalmSE3SE4SE43E4E4SE4
1 day agoW13
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W14W15
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W15W15W11W12W12W12
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W10W11W9W11W11W6W6W6W6W6W7
2 days agoE6E8E7E7E9E11E12
G18
E7E16SE11NE7E8E8SE9SE11
G18
S14
G21
S10S12S11SW9SW10W12
G18
W16W13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.