Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brockport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:05PM Sunday August 20, 2017 3:46 AM EDT (07:46 UTC) Moonrise 3:56AMMoonset 6:31PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1038 Pm Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts late this evening. A chance of showers late this evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 73 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201708200915;;652672 FZUS51 KBUF 200238 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1038 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-200915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brockport, NY
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location: 43.21, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 200549
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
149 am edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the eastern great lakes overnight
and Sunday, moving east of the area on Monday. This will bring
gradually warming temperatures through Monday. A strong cold front
will cross the region Tuesday, with widespread showers and
thunderstorms. This will be followed by much cooler and less humid
conditions for the end of next week.

Near term through today
Increasing subsidence and drying will bring clearing skies from the
west in wake of the trough. Expect fog to develop in river valleys
across the southern tier as skies clear. Lows will range from the
lower 60s on the lake plains to the mid 50s across the interior
southern tier and lewis county.

On Sunday, high pressure will ridge into the region with dry weather
and partly to mostly sunny skies. In the morning there may be some
lingering lake induced cloud cover, then in the afternoon diurnal
cumulus should develop inland of the lake breeze. In each case,
cloud coverage should be partial at most. Otherwise,
temperatures will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 70s to lower 80s.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
Sunday night and Monday will be characterized by generally fair
weather as upper level ridging transits the region. Speaking of
transits, the ridging should provide for good viewing conditions for
the upcoming solar eclipse - while we may see some diurnal fair-
weather CU developing inland of the lakes during the afternoon,
skies will remain mostly clear during the early afternoon hours on
Monday. Skies will be clearest northeast of the lakes, where the
prevailing southwesterly flow should generate a lake shadow.

The aforementioned southwesterly flow will be the product of broad
return flow around a prominent western extension of the bermuda high
that will be solidly in place across the southeastern u.S.. While
temperatures Sunday night will be seasonable, with clear skies and
light winds allowing for radiational cooling that will in turn cause
temperatures to drop into the upper 50s in the coolest southern
tier north country spots, with low to mid 60s elsewhere, readings
will climb into the mid 80s on Monday as the return flow advects
increasingly warm and moist air into the region, with 850mb temps
climbing to +18c by Monday afternoon. The southwesterly flow and
associated downsloping will tack on an additional couple of degrees
across the genesee valley and the lake ontario plain, where highs
will reach the upper 80s.

The warm temperatures will be accompanied by increasing mugginess as
well, as gomex moisture is drawn across the mississippi and ohio
valleys and into the great lakes. Dewpoints will surge into the mid
to upper 60s Monday night, resulting in lows that will fail to dip
below 70 across much of the lake erie and lake ontario plains, while
the rest of the forecast area will only dip into the mid 60s, making
for a sticky night.

The hot and muggy weather will persist into Tuesday. The warm and
moist airmass will become increasingly unstable on Tuesday, with the
approach of a deep upper level trough tracking across the great
lakes. This will likely drive showers and thunderstorms that will
develop across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon ahead of a strong
cold front that will be crossing the region Tuesday night. An
anomalously strong 40+ LLJ ahead of the trough will advect
additional moisture and significantly increase low-level shear as
well, and latest 12z runs are a little faster with the timing of the
trough driving the convection, with lift arriving during peak
diurnal heating Tuesday afternoon. Given the very warm and moist
airmass preceding the system, and the strength of the synoptic
system and associated vertical shear, severe weather is looking
increasingly likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, as noted
in the SPC day 4 outlook. After another day in the mid to upper 80s,
readings will fall off into the low to mid 60s in the wake of the
cold frontal passage.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
A much cooler airmass will flow over the region this period, behind
a strong cold front from Tuesday.

Initially Wednesday a few lake effect rain showers will be possible
east of the lakes as cool 850 hpa temperatures of +7 to +8c flow
over the lakes. As the upper level trough passes Wednesday
additional scattered showers will be possible across the region. In
addition winds will be brisk Wednesday especially over the lakes and
along the shoreline where wnw winds upwards to 25 knots and
increasing wave heights will be likely.

Thursday we will still have anticyclonic flow aloft, and with the
core of the cold air passing over the lakes, additional lake effect
showers and clouds will be possible... Though with a thinner moisture
layer... Expect the lake response to be more clouds than showers.

Both Wednesday and Thursday will be cool with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Sprawling high pressure will then reach our region for Friday and
Saturday with abundant sunshine and temperatures around 70
Friday increasing to the lower 70s for Saturday.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Clearing skies overnight will lead to the development of valley fog
late tonight across the western southern tier with local ifr.

Any valley fog will quickly dissipate Sunday morning, with
mostly clear skies andVFR conditions during the day Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR except for late night and early
morning valley fog with local ifr.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tuesday night... MVFR ifr, with showers and thunderstorms
likely.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
A moderate west-southwest flow will continue up to midnight
with choppy to small craft conditions on both lake erie and
ontario. Winds will then diminish from west to east overnight with
conditions on the lakes improving.

High pressure will bring a return to lighter winds Sunday and
Monday. Then a strong cold front will result in increasing winds
Tuesday which may require another round of small craft headlines
before and after the cold frontal passage. There also may be
strong thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt early this morning for
loz044-045.

Synopsis... Apffel tma
near term... Church tma
short term... Church
long term... Thomas
aviation... Church
marine... Church tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 17 mi47 min 64°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.3)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 18 mi47 min WSW 7 G 8 66°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 40 mi57 min NW 16 G 18 68°F 71°F3 ft1014.1 hPa (+1.5)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 42 mi47 min SSW 5.1 G 7 64°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY16 mi53 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F60°F84%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W6W8W7W10W11W9
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1 day agoSW8SW5SW4SW6SW6SW10W13SW9SW9SW12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE5SE4SE6SE6SE5E8E9SE7E10SE10SE8SE7S7S7S4SW6S6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.