Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brockport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday May 25, 2017 2:19 PM EDT (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 4:51AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1021 Am Edt Thu May 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
This afternoon..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Areas of fog overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Areas of fog in the morning. Scattered showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely during the day...then a chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201705252115;;184984 FZUS51 KBUF 251421 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1021 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ043-252115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brockport, NY
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location: 43.21, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 251806
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
206 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
An upper level low will track just to the south of the region
tonight and tomorrow, maintaining cool, cloudy conditions with
scattered light rain showers. Temperatures will moderate back to
normal for the weekend, though there will remain a chance for a
shower early Saturday, and then more widespread showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm later Sunday and Sunday night.

Near term through tonight
The main axis of rain has now shifted to the eastern lake ontario
region this afternoon, with just a few light showers sprinkles
remaining across wny. The rainfall over buffalo has produced a
record for the date, with the former record of 1.21" in 1874
exceeded.

Tonight... The mature storm will complete its reorganization off the
east coast... While a deep cyclonic flow rich in low level moisture
will remain in place across our forecast area. This will keep
overcast and damp conditions in place... With weak shortwaves around
the periphery of the exiting storm generating some spotty light
showers. The most widespread pcpn tonight should be found east of
lake ontario where there will still be a fair amount of moisture in
the mid levels.

Temperatures tonight will settle into the low to mid 50s... Which is
right where they should be for this time of year.

Short term Friday through Sunday night
On Friday vertically stacked low pressure over southern new england
will meander its way eastward to a position just offshore of nova
scotia. On its backside... A cooler northwesterly flow and plenty of
wraparound moisture will continue to circulate across our region...

supporting mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers that will
only slowly diminish in coverage from west to east. Expect high
temps to mostly range in the lower half of the 60s... Though some of
our higher elevations will probably not make it out of the upper
50s.

Friday night and Saturday weak surface-based ridging will slide
eastward into our region from the central great lakes and ohio
valley... While shortwave ridging results in slowly rising heights
aloft. This should allow for mainly dry weather to prevail... Though
a few more stray showers still cannot be totally ruled out Friday
night and Saturday morning. After a mostly cloudy Friday night...

the increased ridging and arrival of somewhat drier air should allow
for the return of at least some partial sunshine during the day
Saturday... Which in concert with weak warm air advection should
allow high temps to mostly recover into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Saturday night the aforementioned surface ridge will slide eastward
and out to sea... While another developing wave of low pressure makes
its way across the ohio valley... In association with the next upper
level low dropping southeastward from the canadian prairies. Expect
dry and quiet weather to prevail for a good chunk of the night...

before lower-end shower chances return to far western sections late
with the approach of the next system. Otherwise temperatures will be
remain seasonably mild... With lows ranging through the 50s.

Sunday and Sunday night conditions will turn more unsettled again as
the upper level low digs southeastward across the great lakes...

while its attendant broad surface reflection pushes northeastward
across our region. While the timing of this system appears to be at
least a little bit slower in the 00z 25 guidance suite... The
combination of falling heights and warm air advection on its front
flank should nonetheless eventually allow for another round of fairly
widespread showers across our region Sunday and Sunday night... With
diurnal destabilization also allowing for the possibility of some
embedded thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening. As for temperatures...

these will remain above average with highs in the lower to mid 70s
Sunday followed by lows in the mid to upper 50s Sunday night.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Moving on into next week... It appears that our region will remain
under the influence of the large upper level low... Which will only
slowly meander its way across the great lakes and adjoining portions
of southern canada through midweek. Numerous shortwave impulses
rotating around the large cyclonic gyre aloft will result in frequent
opportunities for showers across our region... With some embedded
thunderstorms again not out of the question each day with diurnal
heating destabilization of our slowly cooling airmass.

Temperature-wise... Highs in the lower to mid 70s on Monday should
pull back to the mid to upper 60s by midweek as progressively cooler
air filters into our region... While nighttime lows gradually settle
back through the 50s.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
For the 18z tafs flight conditions remain ifr MVFR as an area of
rain exits northward from the region. There will likely be some
modest improvements this evening, though still with the threat for a
shower. Later tonight as winds become westerly we will see CIGS fall
within a saturated lower atmosphere with flight conditions returning
to ifr for the TAF sites.

Friday, with a still light westerly flow flight conditions will
slowly improve back to MVFR with daytime mixing and deeper moisture
exits to the east.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon... MVFRVFR with isolated showers.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. Chc of showers early to the west.

Sunday... MVFRVFR with showers likely.

Monday and Tuesday... MVFRVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
An easterly wind will continue across lake ontario this afternoon
producing small craft advisory worthy waves and winds on the western
shoreline. A slight northerly component to the wind will also create
some eddies in the wind field across the lower niagara river, near
the lake ontario shoreline... And will maintain the SCA here as well.

Otherwise an upper level low will track across lake erie and to the
south of lake ontario tonight and tomorrow. Winds will relax under
this feature and this will allow for the SCA to end overnight.

Tides coastal flooding
A deepening low pressure system will move closer with an
increasing ene flow on lake ontario. Winds will increase to 15
to 25 knots later today... Allowing waves to build to 3 to 6 ft
by the afternoon. Given the high lake levels... This is expected
to generate lakeshore flooding from monroe county west to the
niagara river, with additional shoreline erosion likely. A
lakeshore flood warning is in effect from Thursday morning
through Thursday evening.

The higher wave action and associated flooding risk should be
relatively short-lived, however. The low will move over head
western new york by Thursday evening, resulting in sharply
diminishing winds, with waves subsiding shortly thereafter. A
baggy pressure gradient on the back side of the departing low
means that while northwesterly flow behind the low should
generate some choppy conditions Friday along the southern shores
of lake ontario, waves should remain in the 1-2 foot range, and
additional flooding issues are not expected.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning until 2 am edt Friday for nyz001>003.

Beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for
nyz001>003.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for loz030.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
loz043.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for loz042.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Rsh thomas
short term... Jjr
long term... Jjr
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas
tides coastal flooding... Hitchcock wood apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 17 mi55 min 51°F 1001.1 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 18 mi139 min E 15 G 17 51°F 1002 hPa (-1.7)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 40 mi89 min ENE 18 G 21 48°F 44°F3 ft1001.4 hPa (-1.5)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 42 mi79 min ENE 15 G 17 49°F 1001 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY16 mi25 minE 84.00 miFog/Mist58°F55°F90%1000.7 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10SE16
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1 day agoW4SW53NE12NE12NE7E5E6E4E3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmS4SE4SE7SE10SE12
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W12W11SW6SW6SW6SW6SW5SW6SW5SW7SW7SW7SW6SW8SW6SW7S4SW11SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.