Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brockport, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:42PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:22 AM EST (10:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:47PMMoonset 6:12AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 929 Pm Est Wed Nov 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est Thursday...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers in the morning, then scattered flurries in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201811221030;;662277 FZUS51 KBUF 220229 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 929 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-221030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brockport, NY
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location: 43.21, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 220943
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
443 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will settle across our region today, bringing
record or near record cold along with slowly diminishing snow
showers. The bitter cold will be short lived, as a significant
warm up will begin on Friday and continue through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
Arctic high pressure will continue to build into the region and
bring an unseasonably cold day today. Light intensity lake effect
snow showers south and southeast of the lakes early this morning
will diminish through the morning, before ending entirely by mid day
or early afternoon. Outside of the snow shower activity conditions
will be partly to mostly sunny, but unseasonably cold. High
temperatures will range from the mid teens across interior portions
of the southern tier north country to the lower 20s across the lake
plains. These readings are some 25 degrees below normal, with daily
record low maximums likely to be set.

Very cold temperatures will persist tonight as the high settles over
the area. Widespread low temperatures in the single digits and
teens are expected.

Short term Friday through Sunday
While mid winter temperatures will greet black Friday shoppers
early Friday morning... Fair dry weather can be expected throughout
the day. The large arctic high responsible for the january like
temperatures will push off the coast during the afternoon... And the
clockwise circulation on its backside will allow for more tolerable
temperatures to end the day as the mercury will climb well into the
20s east of lake ontario with readings reaching well above freezing
over the far western counties. All in all though... Good weather will
be in place for holiday shoppers travelers.

Continued warm advection will be found across our forecast area
Friday night... As a southerly flow will deepen between the exited
surface high and an approaching 'storm system' over the ohio and
tennessee valleys. Clouds will increase and thicken over the region
ahead of this next system... But we should maintain our dry weather
through the overnight. In regards to temperatures... It will not be
nearly as cold... As the stronger southerly flow will guarantee that
temperatures will be a solid 15 deg higher than those from
thanksgiving night. Lows will range from the teens in lewis county
to around 30 near lake erie... And those should be experienced before
midnight with slowly rising temperatures during the wee hours of
the morning.

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate across the forecast area on
Saturday... As a complex frontal system and developing surface low
will push to the east across the lower great lakes and mid atlantic
region. A robust 50kt low level jet will combine with a little help
from some h25 jet dynamics to lift a deepening moisture field to
generate fairly widespread rain... Particularly over the western
counties. There will be the risk that some of the pcpn will start
off as a mix of sleet wet snow during the morning... But there is no
doubt that this will be a rain event with daytime basin average
rainfall forecast to range from a few hundredths across the north
country to as much as a half inch across the southern tier. Its
worth noting that the southerly flow should encourage a little
downsloping north of the nys thruway between buf and syr... And this
will help to hold down the rainfall numbers by some 20 percent. Not
a big deal though given the projected rainfall totals. It will also
feel somewhat milder with MAX temps generally in the low to mid 40s.

The complex system within a supporting negatively tilted trough will
continue to advance across the eastern lake ontario counties
Saturday night. This will allow the rain to become more widespread
in that area... While the steadier rain will taper off and end as
nuisance showers over the western counties. Again... The pcpn should
fall as liquid... So no winter related travel issues are anticipated.

A short lived ridge will quickly pass over our region on Sunday.

This will provide us with fair dry weather... Although a few leftover
showers will be possible early in the day for sites east of lake
ontario. It will be relatively mild... As the mercury will climb into
the mid and upper 40s for the bulk of the region.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Later Sunday night and Monday an upper level trough of low
pressure will carry a storm system eastward, with the surface
low tracking across, or just to our south Monday. This system
will bring a return to unsettled weather, with thermal profiles
within this pacific sourced system suggesting that rain will be
the predominate p-type.

On Tuesday this upper level trough will become negatively tilted,
and a new surface low will emerge to the lee of the appalachians.

This new surface low will bring impacts along the east coast, with
lingering surface troughing back across wny continuing the threat
for showers... Of which most will be snow as much colder air aloft
wraps across the eastern great lakes. This colder air, with 850 hpa
temperatures dropping to -10 to -12c... Will likely yield bands of
lake effect snow... Which at this time may be downwind of the great
lakes on a westerly flow. However there is still some model
differences in the position of the upper level low and where it
forms a cut off... That will influence the surface wind direction.

Regardless there will be chances for lake effect snow through the
end of the period with temperatures again returning to below
normal, with highs Wednesday possibly remaining below freezing.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
High pressure pressure centered across the upper great lakes sending
arctic air over the region. Northwest flow producing light lake
effect snow showers south and southeast of the lakes. Ceilings south
of lake ontario 25-35 hundred feet with skc at kart. Intermittent
MVFR vsbys within the lake effect snow showers. The high will
settle overtop new york state by this afternoon. This will end
the snow showers with widespreadVFR conditions.

Outlook...

tonight and Friday...VFR.

Saturday and Saturday night... MVFR ifr in rain showers.

Sunday... MVFR in lingering lower ceilings.

Monday... MVFR with rain showers likely.

Marine
Strong high pressure will steadily build southeastward and into our
region today. Winds will continue to diminish as the high moves
closer, with small craft advisory expiration times outlined
below.

As the high moves east and off the atlantic coastline tonight and
Friday, winds will turn southerly and freshen. This will direct the
highest waves into canadian waters, so small craft advisories should
generally not be needed. The one possible exception is extreme ne
lake ontario where conditions could potentially reach advisory
levels during Friday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for
loz042>044.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Tma
short term... Rsh
long term... Thomas
aviation... Tma
marine... Tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 17 mi40 min 20°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 18 mi22 min N 17 G 22 20°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 42 mi22 min N 15 G 19 19°F 1033.5 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY16 mi28 minW 71.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist12°F8°F84%1032.5 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW5SW5SW4SW4SW7SW6SW8SW10SW7SW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmW4SW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.