Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brockport, NY
May 7, 2024 2:30 PM EDT (18:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 4:25 AM Moonset 7:14 PM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1004 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
This afternoon - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 071753 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 153 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move across the area tonight, with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms crossing the area from southwest to northeast. The showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday morning. Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of Wednesday, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure across New England will maintain sunny skies most of this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows high clouds located just to our southwest and about to enter far western NY late afternoon.
Tonight through early Wednesday morning a mid level trough will move northeast across the Great Lakes, with an associated warm front moving northeast across our area overnight. A 40+ knot southwesterly low level jet in the upstream warm sector will impinge on the warm front and enhance moisture transport and isentropic upglide. The quality of forcing and moisture continue to support the idea of an organized area of showers moving from southwest to northeast across the area overnight. This area can be seen on radar as a semi- broken line across Western Ohio early this afternoon. Model guidance in good agreement bringing this into Western NY late this evening, shortly after midnight for the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes, and the pre-dawn hours east of Lake Ontario. Forecast soundings show enough elevated instability to support a few thunderstorms as well, especially during the first half of the night. Storms may produce brief periods of heavy rain, but they'll be moving so flooding is not a concern.
Wednesday, the warm front will still be over the eastern Lake Ontario region early in the morning with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will have already ended across Western NY as the better forcing and moisture move east. It'll be quite breezy with wind gusts around 35 mph downwind of Lake Erie. This will result in a lake shadow which should keep most of Western NY rain free. The exception will be just south of Lake Ontario on the northern fringe of the shadow where limited instability may spark a few afternoon thunderstorms.
There may be a brief break in the showers east of Lake Ontario late Wednesday morning, but chances there will increase again when a strong mid level shortwave moves across southern Ontario.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the boundary which will be across northern Jefferson and Lewis Counties. In addition, instability to the south of this will feed into it, and potentially produce some stronger storms with heavy rain. SPC just clips this area with its Marginal Risk in the Day 2 Outlook.
Finally, an increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Erie fog will likely move onshore into downtown Buffalo for a few hours Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Ontario fog may move onshore into Jefferson County as well.
A weak area of low pressure will be east of the forecast area Wednesday night. The vast majority of the night will be rain- free with only small chances for showers east of Lake Ontario early and across the Western Southern Tier late.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough across the Mid-Western states will approach the region Thursday. A westerly flow aloft will become southerly by late Thursday and moisture and warm air advection will increase the chance for showers across the region. An associated area of low pressure will move south of the forecast area through Thursday night while the shortwave trough deepens across the Northeast. While there is uncertainty in the track and strength of this system, periods of showers are likely ahead of this system Thursday into Thursday night. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms during peak heating Thursday afternoon, however confidence is low. Rainfall amounts will average 0.25-0.50 inches across the region Thursday through Thursday night.
Temperatures will average slightly above normal Wednesday night and Thursday night, however a northeast wind across the region Thursday will keep high temperatures slightly below normal.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper level trough will become nestled across the Great Lakes region and Northeast through the weekend. This will bring unsettled and cooler weather across the eastern Great Lakes region.
Initially, an area of low pressure should be departing to the east of the region Friday. The 00z GFS/GEFS is an outlier at this point and keeps the area of low pressure over to the region. Daytime heating and cooler temperatures aloft will likely lead to showers developing across the region Friday. Drier weather is expected Friday night into Saturday as a ridge briefly moves into the region, however any clearing and daytime heating may result in scattered showers Saturday. The upper level trough will move overhead while the surface low pressure approaches the region Sunday into Sunday night.
There are low to medium chances for showers to end the weekend. The trough will move east of the region the start of the work week with chances for showers lingering into Monday.
While confidence is low on the coverage and timing of showers Friday through Monday, confidence is higher that it will be a period of cooler weather across the eastern Great Lakes region. Temperatures will average below normal with temperatures reaching near normal by Monday.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure across New England will maintain VFR flight conditions through this evening. Tonight, a warm front will move quickly northeast across the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring about a three hour period of showers to most locations, with a risk of some thunderstorms within this line. The rain will be moving into a dry airmass, so expect mainly VFR CIGS/VSBY initially. The low levels will saturate near the back edge of the rain, with areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS expanding late tonight. Patchy fog is possible behind the front, especially northeast of the lakes at KBUF and KART. The stratus and fog will dissipate mid to late morning, giving way to mainly VFR flight conditions for the afternoon. The only exception is KART where showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the stalled boundary.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
High pressure across New England will maintain generally light winds this afternoon. The one exception will be the west end of Lake Ontario, where ENE winds will increase this afternoon and evening, producing choppy conditions on Lake Ontario west of Rochester, but winds and waves are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
WSW winds will increase Wednesday, especially on Lake Erie. This will produce very choppy conditions Wednesday through Wednesday evening, possibly near Small Craft Advisory criteria.
An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 153 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move across the area tonight, with an area of showers and a few thunderstorms crossing the area from southwest to northeast. The showers will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region Wednesday morning. Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of Wednesday, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure across New England will maintain sunny skies most of this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows high clouds located just to our southwest and about to enter far western NY late afternoon.
Tonight through early Wednesday morning a mid level trough will move northeast across the Great Lakes, with an associated warm front moving northeast across our area overnight. A 40+ knot southwesterly low level jet in the upstream warm sector will impinge on the warm front and enhance moisture transport and isentropic upglide. The quality of forcing and moisture continue to support the idea of an organized area of showers moving from southwest to northeast across the area overnight. This area can be seen on radar as a semi- broken line across Western Ohio early this afternoon. Model guidance in good agreement bringing this into Western NY late this evening, shortly after midnight for the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes, and the pre-dawn hours east of Lake Ontario. Forecast soundings show enough elevated instability to support a few thunderstorms as well, especially during the first half of the night. Storms may produce brief periods of heavy rain, but they'll be moving so flooding is not a concern.
Wednesday, the warm front will still be over the eastern Lake Ontario region early in the morning with showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Rain will have already ended across Western NY as the better forcing and moisture move east. It'll be quite breezy with wind gusts around 35 mph downwind of Lake Erie. This will result in a lake shadow which should keep most of Western NY rain free. The exception will be just south of Lake Ontario on the northern fringe of the shadow where limited instability may spark a few afternoon thunderstorms.
There may be a brief break in the showers east of Lake Ontario late Wednesday morning, but chances there will increase again when a strong mid level shortwave moves across southern Ontario.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the boundary which will be across northern Jefferson and Lewis Counties. In addition, instability to the south of this will feed into it, and potentially produce some stronger storms with heavy rain. SPC just clips this area with its Marginal Risk in the Day 2 Outlook.
Finally, an increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Erie fog will likely move onshore into downtown Buffalo for a few hours Wednesday morning. Some of the Lake Ontario fog may move onshore into Jefferson County as well.
A weak area of low pressure will be east of the forecast area Wednesday night. The vast majority of the night will be rain- free with only small chances for showers east of Lake Ontario early and across the Western Southern Tier late.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough across the Mid-Western states will approach the region Thursday. A westerly flow aloft will become southerly by late Thursday and moisture and warm air advection will increase the chance for showers across the region. An associated area of low pressure will move south of the forecast area through Thursday night while the shortwave trough deepens across the Northeast. While there is uncertainty in the track and strength of this system, periods of showers are likely ahead of this system Thursday into Thursday night. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms during peak heating Thursday afternoon, however confidence is low. Rainfall amounts will average 0.25-0.50 inches across the region Thursday through Thursday night.
Temperatures will average slightly above normal Wednesday night and Thursday night, however a northeast wind across the region Thursday will keep high temperatures slightly below normal.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper level trough will become nestled across the Great Lakes region and Northeast through the weekend. This will bring unsettled and cooler weather across the eastern Great Lakes region.
Initially, an area of low pressure should be departing to the east of the region Friday. The 00z GFS/GEFS is an outlier at this point and keeps the area of low pressure over to the region. Daytime heating and cooler temperatures aloft will likely lead to showers developing across the region Friday. Drier weather is expected Friday night into Saturday as a ridge briefly moves into the region, however any clearing and daytime heating may result in scattered showers Saturday. The upper level trough will move overhead while the surface low pressure approaches the region Sunday into Sunday night.
There are low to medium chances for showers to end the weekend. The trough will move east of the region the start of the work week with chances for showers lingering into Monday.
While confidence is low on the coverage and timing of showers Friday through Monday, confidence is higher that it will be a period of cooler weather across the eastern Great Lakes region. Temperatures will average below normal with temperatures reaching near normal by Monday.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure across New England will maintain VFR flight conditions through this evening. Tonight, a warm front will move quickly northeast across the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring about a three hour period of showers to most locations, with a risk of some thunderstorms within this line. The rain will be moving into a dry airmass, so expect mainly VFR CIGS/VSBY initially. The low levels will saturate near the back edge of the rain, with areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS expanding late tonight. Patchy fog is possible behind the front, especially northeast of the lakes at KBUF and KART. The stratus and fog will dissipate mid to late morning, giving way to mainly VFR flight conditions for the afternoon. The only exception is KART where showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the stalled boundary.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
High pressure across New England will maintain generally light winds this afternoon. The one exception will be the west end of Lake Ontario, where ENE winds will increase this afternoon and evening, producing choppy conditions on Lake Ontario west of Rochester, but winds and waves are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
WSW winds will increase Wednesday, especially on Lake Erie. This will produce very choppy conditions Wednesday through Wednesday evening, possibly near Small Craft Advisory criteria.
An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog late tonight through Wednesday morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 17 mi | 72 min | 52°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 18 mi | 90 min | E 2.9G | 53°F | 29.87 | |||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 42 mi | 90 min | NE 6G | 52°F | 29.85 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 16 sm | 36 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 72°F | 46°F | 41% | 29.79 | |
| KGVQ GENESEE COUNTY,NY | 17 sm | 34 min | ESE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 43°F | 38% | 29.79 |
Buffalo, NY,
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