Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 3:35 AM   Moonset 4:30 PM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 939 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Periods of rain, then showers likely late. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - Light and variable winds. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 051400 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1000 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A mid level disturbance will cross the region today with widespread rain moving from southwest to northeast across the area. The widespread rain will be followed by a few more showers this afternoon and this evening, and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms in Western NY. Rain will then end from west to east later tonight, with high pressure bringing a return to dry weather Monday. The dry weather will last through most of Tuesday before a warm front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A mid level shortwave will cross the eastern Great Lakes through the first half of today, with DPVA ahead of the wave bringing a period of large scale ascent to the region. A 40 knot SSW low level jet will continue to aid in low level moisture transport. The combination of forcing and moisture will continue to support widespread rain east of Lake Ontario into early afternoon. Behind this, there's scattered showers with ample elevated instability to support a few thunderstorms.

Expect a general drying trend for several hours after the widespread rain tapers off, although a few spotty showers may continue. An upstream cold front will reach Western NY early this evening. A narrow axis of modest diurnal instability will develop just ahead of the cold front, supporting a broken line of showers and a few thunderstorms over southern Ontario and also northeast Ohio and northwest PA by late afternoon. This broken band of showers and a few thunderstorms will enter Western NY early this evening. The cold front will continue east overnight, with the broken band of showers crossing the Genesee Valley late evening before reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region after midnight. Diminishing instability will bring an end to the thunder potential by late evening.

Low level flow will become quite weak along and behind the cold front tonight, and drier air will lag behind by several hours.
Abundant low level moisture and weak flow will likely allow areas of fog to develop from late evening through the overnight, with some of this fog possibly lasting through early Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Monday and Monday night, a few lingering showers/sprinkles over the far eastern portions of the forecast area will be possible early in the morning behind a passing cold front. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions for the rest of the area with increasing sunshine from northwest to southeast as an area of elongated high pressure and increased ridging pushes into the region. Daytime highs in the low 60s for the higher terrain to the east of Lake Ontario and for areas along both lakes where onshore flow will cool temperatures. Low 70s expected for the lower elevations. Nighttime lows in the low to mid 40s.

On Tuesday the surface ridge axis will slowly drift east to New England weakening in the process...while the leading edge of a sprawling mid level trough and associated surface low over the north- central states slowly works its way into the Upper Mississippi Valley
As this does so
a warm frontal boundary snaking southeastward from this system will slowly push northeast across the Ohio Valley. While this latter feature could draw close enough to support the potential for a couple widely scattered showers across the Southern Tier later on in the afternoon...the day should otherwise feature continued dry weather with just a modest increase in cloud cover across far western New York. With our airmass starting to warm again highs should generally range through the 70s...though it will again be a bit cooler along the lakeshores due to onshore flow.

Tuesday night the various guidance packages suggest that the warm frontal boundary will lift further northeastward and into our region while also becoming increasingly wavy as a supporting mid-level shortwave ripples eastward across the central/eastern Great Lakes.
This will bring a general southwest-northeast increase in cloud cover and eventually the likelihood of some showers as the evening progresses...with a few thunderstorms also becoming possible due to the arrival of some weak elevated instability. Otherwise it will be a notably milder night with lows ranging from around 50 across the North Country to the mid and upper 50s south of the NYS Thruway.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The long term period continues to look wet with at least a chance of showers for the entire forecast area each day. A mid/upper level low over the northern Rockies will slowly track east, opening to a large scale trough through the second half of the week.

Earlier in the week with the trough/mid-level low to the west, periods of weak ridging over the region will give way to developing sfc lows and shortwave troughs that will bring an influx of GOMEX moisture north into the region. Moisture and large scale synoptic lift will provide for periods of showers with some breaks in the precip.

The larger trough will setup over the region by Friday, and persist through at least the weekend. This will provide for several rounds of showers, especially as different shortwave troughs track through/around the larger trough. Cyclonic flow and the trough in general over the region will also result in cooler temperatures.

Embedded thunderstorms will be possible at times, especially during the middle of the week when instability will be a bit better than later in the week.

Temperatures will start out above normal with highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s from the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the lower elevations of WNY respectively. Day-to-day cooling is then expected through the rest of the period as the trough moves into the region. Below normal high temperatures are expected for Saturday with temperatures only reaching the low 50s to near 60 for the afternoon.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A mid level shortwave will cross the region from southwest to northeast this morning, producing areas of rain in the process. The most widespread rain will fall across Western NY through mid morning, across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes through midday, and east of Lake Ontario through mid afternoon. Following the widespread rain, a cold front will move into Western NY late this afternoon and evening, then move east across the remainder of the area overnight, producing a few more showers. The cold front may produce a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms as well, mainly across Western NY from late afternoon through mid evening.
VSBY will be VFR most of the time, although any pockets of heavier rain will produce short lived VSBY restrictions.

CIGS will deteriorate to widespread MVFR with higher terrain IFR before daybreak as the low levels saturate with widespread rain. The widespread lower elevation MVFR CIGS and higher terrain IFR CIGS will continue most, if not all of today. The lower elevations will likely deteriorate further to IFR this evening along and behind the cold front. IFR CIGS will continue to linger overnight following the weak cold front. Weakening surface winds and abundant low level moisture may also allow areas of fog to develop overnight with areas of IFR VSBY.

Outlook...

Monday...Areas of IFR in low stratus and fog early, improving to VFR.

Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Moderate southeast winds through early afternoon will produce choppy conditions on the lakes, mainly in the offshore and Canadian waters given the largely offshore wind component. Winds will then become southwest and decrease from west to east today as a weak trough moves across the eastern Great Lakes. There may be some marine layer fog over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this afternoon through tonight as a warm/moist airmass overlays the cold lake waters.

Generally light winds are then expected Monday through Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place across the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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