Tuesday, June18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:56PM Tuesday June 18, 2019 6:43 PM EDT (22:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 5:37AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1044 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2019
Rest of today..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Partly cloudy, then becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:201906182130;;683598 FZUS51 KBUF 181444 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1044 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-182130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 182036
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
436 pm edt Tue jun 18 2019

Synopsis
Through Wednesday weak high pressure will linger across the lower
great lakes... While a stalled out frontal boundary will remain
draped across pennsylvania. Weak impulses sliding eastward along the
front may generate some widely scattered showers across far interior
sections at times through early Wednesday... With increasing daytime
heating then allowing showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to
expand a bit across areas inland from the lakes Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening. Low pressure advancing into the lower great
lakes will then bring a widespread soaking rainfall Thursday into
Thursday night which could be heavy at times.

Near term through Wednesday night
As of 430 pm a cumulus field persists inland from the lakes...

however shower coverage within this region remains very spotty
on area radars... With any echoes confined to interior portions
of the southern tier and finger lakes. Still could see a few
additional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm develop
within the above areas through early this evening given sbcapes
of 500-1000 j kg and the potential for localized convergence lift
along lake breeze boundaries and terrain features... However
coverage will likely remain fairly limited. After that there
should be a relative break for at least part of the night...

before a few more isolated showers become possible across the
southern tier as an impulse along front currently causing
showers and t-storms over central indiana to central ohio slides
along pa ny border... As is hinted at by a majority of the higher
resolution models (wrf-arw, nmm, nssl- WRF and even nam- nest).

On Wednesday, diurnal instability and local convergence from lake
breezes, terrain, and differential heating will support a chance of
a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm especially in the
afternoon and evening hours, mainly inland from the lakes. Stable
lake shadows will likely keep most lake plain locations dry. High
temperatures will be in the upper 70s in most areas, but it will be
cooler along the immediate lakeshores as lake breeze circulations
develop. Still appears that most of the diurnal showers will taper
off Wednesday evening. Then late Wednesday night, larger scale
ascent in form of PVA q-vector convergence ahead of approaching
shortwave trough and warm air advection moisture flux convergence in
advance of approaching sfc-h85 lows will support increase in showers
and possibly a thunderstorm toward western portions of forecast
area.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
Thursday, a surface low will be found near ohio, this within a
progressive, zonal shortwave trough that will eventually merge with
an upper level low well to our east this weekend. Ahead of this low,
a southerly stream will transport deep moisture northward, with
pwats rising to near 1.5 inches during the day over our region.

While moisture will surge northward, it will not become very
warm... With temperatures at 850 hpa around 10-13c. The surface low
is forecasted to track eastward across pennsylvania, and the greater
warmth and instability will remain along and to the south of this
low.

In light of this, will narrow in the area for heavy rain, and
thunderstorms to the southern two tiers of counties in our cwa.

While moderate rain is still possible to the north of the thruway,
the position of the surface low (which will continue a steady
eastward track), greatest instability, and southward push of the
axis of deeper moisture will allow the removal of heavy rain. Still
with the upper level shortwave passing through, deep accent will
allow for rain showers for the entire region and will continue with
the categorical pops.

Rainfall of over an inch is likely south of the nys thruway Thursday-
Thursday night, while closer to the saint lawrence valley total
rainfall will average around a quarter of an inch.

This surface low will track towards the jersey shore Thursday night.

This will carry the bulk of the rain showers eastward, though moist
cyclonic flow aloft will maintain chances for light rain showers or
drizzle deep into the overnight time period. A northerly wind behind
the surface trough aloft may bring some lower ceiling heights, and
areas of fog across the hills of the southern tier.

High temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 60s, to
lower 70s or about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. A late night push
of drier and cooler air will allow for temperatures to drop into the
mid 50s late.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
After Thursday's rains... Friday will become much nicer with a
surface low now over new england and heading out to sea. Under
cyclonic flow aloft, a dry northerly flow will bring increasing
amounts of sunshine and much lower humidity. There will likely be a
decent cumulus field forming through the afternoon under the
cyclonic flow, though there should still be plenty of sunshine.

Temperatures through the afternoon will be in the 60s, with highs
peaking around 70f.

Saturday and Sunday an upper level ridge will begin to amplify over
our region, with 500 hpa heights peaking Sunday around 576-580 dm.

This upper level ridge and strengthening lower level inversion will
limit any shower or thunderstorm activity, while also allowing for
day to day warming into the mid 70s Saturday and around 80f Sunday.

The ridge axis will slide to our east Sunday night and this will
allow for increasing chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.

The greatest chances will be Monday and Monday night as an upper
level trough axis swings across the region. The GFS is much sharper
with this trough than the operational ECMWF canadian and much of the
gfs's 12z ensemble members. If a slower progression to this trough
occurs, then a sharper trough as suggested by the GFS could be
possible with prospects for stronger thunderstorms Monday
night Tuesday. Monday will likely still remain warm, with
temperatures well into the 70s to lower 80s, with Tuesday behind the
trough a few degrees cooler.

Aviation 21z Tuesday through Sunday
DaytimeVFR cumulus clouds will fade into the evening. Overall
vfr conditions will continue into Wednesday morning, though
should see some fog (ifr MVFR conditions) and an isolated
shower at kjhw late tonight into Wednesday morning. Additional
showers could develop over more areas during peak heating on
Wednesday afternoon, though again especially at kjhw.

Conditions Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night should
remainVFR.

Outlook...

Thursday... MVFR ifr with periods of rain and a chance of a
thunderstorm.

Friday... MVFRVFR. Am chance of showers.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

Marine
Weak surface high and weak pressure gradient will reside across the
lower lakes through Wednesday maintaining light winds and minimal
wave action.

A low pressure is expected to track across the lower great lakes on
Thursday, but the exact track and strength of the low still is
uncertain. Winds and waves may approach small craft levels Thursday
into Friday depending on the track and eventual strength of this
system.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jla jjr
near term... Hitchcock jla jjr
short term... Thomas
long term... Thomas
aviation... Jla
marine... Ar jla


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi44 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 63°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi44 min Calm G 1 65°F 1012.5 hPa (-1.4)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi54 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 61°F 53°F56°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi50 minNNE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F53°F48%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE4E5E4SE3CalmCalmE3E3CalmN6NE6NE8NE6E5E4Calm3NE4N9NE10N8NE8N10
1 day agoW3W3SW3SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmNE3E5E5NE7NE11NE11NE9NE8NE9
2 days agoW15
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SW9SW5SW5SW4CalmCalmN9N5NE8NE6NE5E4NE7NE8NE7NE6NE9E6NE63SW4W5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.