Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Roosevelt Park, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday August 24, 2017 1:03 AM EDT (05:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:04AMMoonset 9:21PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 936 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers toward daybreak. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing north 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of showers until midday, then Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds around 5 knots backing northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ847 Expires:201708240930;;298715 FZUS53 KGRR 240136 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 936 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-240930-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Roosevelt Park, MI
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location: 43.22, -86.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 240455
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1255 am edt Thu aug 24 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 324 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
a more early fall like weather pattern into the weekend as
canadian polar air remains over the area through Sunday.

The coolest temperatures will be tomorrow and Friday then there
will be a slow warm up. It would not be out of the question to
have a little patchy frost near route 10, east of reed city
tomorrow morning and Friday morning.

Update
Issued at 1005 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
have added low chc pops for lgt rain showers to the lakeshore
counties toward daybreak as the shortwave now over NRN mn
approaches. Upstream radar and latest hrrr runs support sliding
these showers into our area after 10z. Continued the lakeshore
pops through early afternoon Thursday until the shortwave passes
through, and also added a mention of sprinkles inland from the
lakeshore through midday as that thick deck of mid clouds
upstream associated with the shortwave drifts through.

Short term (this evening through Friday night)
issued at 324 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
the cold air has arrived in southwest michigan and will remain
over this area through most of the weekend. There is an issue with
lake effect rain showers and it is not out of the question that we
could see patchy frost in the normally colder locations near route
10, east of reed city.

We have a few cold air instability rain showers over our eastern
and central CWA this afternoon but those should be gone with
sunset. The coldest air we will see from this event is behind the
next shortwave, which can be seen on the latest water vapor image
loops north of international falls mn. This shortwave dives
southeast enough so that the polar jet axis will actually be south
of the state of michigan during the day time hours of Thursday.

This brings 850 temperatures down to 4c as far south as big sable
point tomorrow morning. This is cold enough of lake enhanced rain
showers but due to the north wind, this will not really impact
much of our CWA as it turns out. Thanks to the shortwave there
will be a fair amount of clouds around Thursday so I do not think
highs will get out of the 60s in most areas.

Thanks to surface high pressure over the area I expect winds to be
light tonight and that will allow temperatures to fall below mos
forecast values. It just may get cold enough in isolated locations
to get some patchy frost but since current dew points are well
above freezing, it would seem unlikely this would be widespread
issue so I did not put that in our grids.

The polar jet GOES back north and east of this area by Friday
morning. More often than not that morning turns out to be the
coldest in this sort of weather pattern. Once again frost is not
out of the question and I would not be surprised to see locations
like leota to get near freezing.

Bottom line is early fall like weather through Friday night.

Long term (Saturday through Wednesday)
issued at 324 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
this forecast is slightly wetter than the previous one and features
at least some chances for rain showers Monday through Wednesday. The
greatest chances for rain in the general area look to be Monday with
thunderstorms also possible in the afternoon. Overall, forecast
certainty is very low due to poor predictability with placing the
key ingredient involved with producing rain.

This key ingredient is an upper trough originating from southwestern
canada that digs and then cuts off over the vicinity of illinois by
late Monday. Medium range deterministic models like the
gfs ECMWF cmc are in fairly good agreement with this evolution but
afterwards start to diverge. This is not surprising for a cutoff low
in general - and this one is extra tricky in terms of placement due
to very split flow aloft associated with upper ridging over ontario
to the northeast. A large number of ece and GEFS member solutions
remain dry during this time and the overall wide range of solutions
emphasizes the poor predictability.

As such, this forecast is highly subject to change. But for now
seasonably cool and unsettled seems like the best bet for the first
part of the coming work week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1255 am edt Thu aug 24 2017
vfr conditions are expected through much of the next 24 hours.

However a weak system will be reaching the region around daybreak.

This will mainly bring a short period of light rain, and could
have some isolated MVFR ceilings with it. Most likely area to see
the MVFR would be near lake michigan, where warm waters and cool
air could bring ceilings lower. Have a brief period MVFR at mkg in
the TAF toward daybreak. This MVFR could reach toward grr, but
left it out of the TAF for now. Then expect the MVFR to mix out by
14z, before it gets too far inland or much farther south.

After a 3 to 6 hour period of light rain, the system will be
through, with clearing skies by mid to late afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 1005 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
winds and waves have subsided enough to cancel the small craft
advisory and beach hazard statement.

Hydrology
Issued at 1213 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
area rivers are around normal levels for the time of the year and
well below bankfull. The rivers have already recovered from the
recent rainfall. No significant precipitation is expected through
the weekend, so no river issues are expected.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Meade
synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... Tjt
aviation... Jk
hydrology... 63
marine... Meade


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 1 mi33 min ENE 4.1 G 4.1 60°F 1017 hPa51°F
45161 3 mi43 min
45029 23 mi23 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 72°F1 ft1016.9 hPa50°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi51 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 61°F 1016.6 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi45 min E 1.9 G 1.9 55°F 51°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI6 mi68 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds56°F51°F84%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS11S11SW17
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE3SW8SW7SW7SW9SW8SW6SE8S9S9W6S9SW10S11S9S10S13
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.