Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wolcott, NY

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Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:52PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 1:31 PM EDT (17:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:24AMMoonset 12:21PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 653 Am Edt Tue Jun 25 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Occasional rain early. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201906251515;;049447 FZUS51 KBUF 251053 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 653 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-251515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wolcott, NY
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location: 43.23, -76.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 251438
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1038 am edt Tue jun 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the ohio valley will then nose northward
across the lower great lakes through tonight... And this will
support the return of fair dry weather. The nice weather will be
short lived though as another disturbance will produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Warm and
moderately humid weather can be expected for Thursday and
Friday.

Near term through tonight
Visible satellite shows some lingering cloud cover behind a
cold front which will depart east of the area through early
afternoon. There will be a few lingering showers in lewis
county, but these will end by noon. A partial clearing will
spread from west to east during late this morning and early
afternoon. This will leave a fairly decent day for most
sites... Although one 'problem' area could be from the iag
peninsula along the escarpment to western monroe county. While
the forecast 10m winds do not suggest the presence of a
convergence zone... Multiple high resolution models are
suggesting such for this area. It's possible that showers will
develop in canada and then move along the edge of the
southwesterly lake shadow and clip niagara orleans counties so
will leave chance pops in the forecast.

It will become breezy across the region today with 25 to 30kt winds
at 2500ft largely being mixed to the surface. This will especially
be the case from lake erie and the iag frontier to about kroc... And
also across the higher terrain. It will be a few degrees cooler
today... With h85 temps averaging 12c supporting afternoon temps in
the mid to upper 70s.

High pressure centered over the ohio valley late today will nose
northward across the pennsylvania and new york tonight. This will
guarantee fair dry weather... But a subtle shortwave depicted by most
of the guidance packages will be on our doorstep by daybreak... So
the nicer weather should be short lived.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
A weak mid level wave will push eastward across the great lakes on
Wednesday, pushing a weak surface front into the region. Drier air
mass to work on and most models aren't very enthusiastic with rain
potential, likely keeping probabilities in chance scattered range.

That said, could see upwards of 1000-1500 j kg of SBCAPE develop by
afternoon, particularity from the western southern tier into central
new york. Expect the lowest risk to be northeast of lakes erie and
ontario as stabilizing lake shadows develop.

Any showers and storms will end from west to east Wednesday evening
with the passage of the cold front. High pressure will then build
into the region for Thursday keeping conditions mainly dry with
temperatures returning into the 80s for most locations.

Friday another relatively weak mid level shortwave and associated
cold front will move across the great lakes. The weak forcing will
combine with moderate instability to produce another chance of a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.

Warm advection ahead of the system will boost 850mb temps to around
+16c, which will likely support highs in the mid 80s away from lake
influences along with moderate humidity. It will turn fairly breezy
ahead of the cold front Friday, especially northeast of lake erie
where gusts may reach 30 mph.

Long term Friday night through Monday
Most active part of long term will be Friday night through Saturday
night with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms driven by
different forcing mechanisms. Northwest flow aloft downstream of
sharp ridge over central north america keeps stronger jet
energy cooler temps aloft across quebec, the lower great lakes and
new england. Strongest shortwave and jet energy drops across later
Saturday into Saturday night along with associated cold front. Some
hints now showing up there could be stronger thunderstorms as early
as Friday night into Saturday morning well ahead of main forcing as
instability in form of steeper mid level lapse rates (elevated mixed
layer) advects in downstream of the plains ridge. Lower great lakes
into new york and pennsylvania would be on gradient of higher
mucapes building closer to the ridge axis. Any weaker shortwave
heading into the region and or surge of focused warm air advection
could allow some convection to break out over our forecast area.

Currently the canadian model is most emphatic with that idea showing
what looks like MCS in its QPF output, but it is an idea that has
some merit based on the pattern outlined above. Increased pops
compared to previous forecast more toward model consensus. Looks
muggy Friday night in warm sector with lows in the 60s, perhaps even
upper 60s with some wind and dewpoints pushing into the mid 60s.

No matter whether convection does or does not develop Friday night,
likely looking at another period of convection on Saturday, this
time surface based, with build up of instability (mlcapes over 1000
j kg) during peak heating and approaching cold front. Highs on
Saturday should easily hit low 80s, but if cold front is slower
may even reach upper 80s given such warm h85 temps. With
expected instability and stronger wind fields aloft, there is a
certainly a non zero risk of severe storms in the later Friday
night (probably more marginal) through Saturday afternoon and
evening time frame. Would say right now the greatest chance for
severe storms would be Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening
with 0-6km deep layer shear values progged from 30-40 kts and
ample instability present ahead of the cold front.

Good agreement that main shortwave and associated cold front clears
entire forecast area later Saturday night early Sunday morning
leaving cooler and less humid conditions on Sunday. Maybe lingering
isolated or scattered convection inland toward finger lakes,
but most areas probably end up dry behind the cold front. High
pressure arriving Sunday night and Monday will keep the dry
weather going into next Monday. High temps both Sunday and
Monday should stay in the mid to upper 70s.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Lingering low clouds will continue to scatter out through 17z.

There may be patchy areas of MVFR conditions or lower northeast
of lake erie and ontario, but eventually drier air will win
out.

One other note for today... Sfc winds will increase to 30 to 35
knots... Mainly over the higher terrain and from a corridor from lake
erie to about kroc. The highest chance for these winds will be from
14-21z.

High pressure will build in tonight with widespreadVFR flight
conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of a few widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Thursday...VFR. Friday and
Saturday... MainlyVFR with a chance of a few widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Freshening southwest winds in the wake of a cold front will support
small craft advisory conditions on lake erie today... With sca's
also being in effect for the upper iag river and buffalo harbor.

Meanwhile winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria across lake
ontario.

High pressure centered over the ohio valley later today will nose
northward across pennsylvania and new york state tonight. This will
not only weaken the winds across the lower great lakes... But will
also tend to back them to a more southerly direction. This will push
the choppiest conditions (highest wave action) into canadian waters.

Light to occasionally moderate southwesterlies will again develop
across the region on Wednesday. While conditions could become choppy
at times on lake erie... Winds and waves throughout the lower great
lakes should stay below SCA criteria. The main concern on Wednesday
will be the risk for thunderstorms.

Looking further ahead... High pressure will offer fair dry weather
across the region on Thursday... Along with generally light winds and
negligible waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for nyz010-
019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
lez020.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Apffel rsh
short term... Tma
long term... Jla
aviation... Apffel rsh
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 23 mi50 min W 11 G 15 68°F 1008.9 hPa61°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 38 mi92 min WSW 12 G 12 61°F 58°F1 ft1008.3 hPa (+1.6)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 40 mi22 min WSW 9.7 G 12 59°F 54°F57°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 41 mi32 min W 19 G 24 76°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 42 mi50 min 78°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY25 mi38 minWNW 11 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F64°F58%1008.9 hPa

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Last 24hr4Calm43334SE44343SE455SE4SE4CalmW6W8SW5SW7W8NW11
G18
1 day agoW8W9NW8
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W10W7W6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW11NW10NW9W12NW11W9NW7NW4W5W3W3CalmCalmCalmW3W4W5W5W8W8W10W7W6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.