Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon Heights, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:04PM Friday March 24, 2017 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:48AMMoonset 3:21PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 339 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday morning...
Through early evening..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of light rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Light rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Light rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..East winds to 30 knots. Light rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to around 10 knots late in the day. Light showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ847 Expires:201703250815;;018682 FZUS53 KGRR 241939 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 339 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ847-250815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon Heights, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 241920
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
320 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
latest update...

synopsis/short term/long term/marine

Synopsis
Issued at 320 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
the area is looking at a damp and gloomy weekend as an expansive
system will remain in place over the area. This will bring periods
of rain through the weekend with breezy and cooler conditions. There
is a chance of storms this afternoon and evening south of i-96, and
another chance of storms on Sunday down south.

There may be a brief break in the weather on Monday at some point.

We are looking at another system poised to move in and bring chances
of more rain showers. Another break in the weather will be possible
mid-week next week, before more rain could move in later next week.

Short term (this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 320 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
somewhat of a complicated scenario this evening as there seems to be
two distinct fronts over the area. One seems to be lined up from
near mt. Pleasant to just north of muskegon as of 3 pm, while the
other stronger warm front seems to be from lansing to south haven.

We are expecting some showers and a few storms to fire in the next
few hours south of the SRN front. There seems to be only a couple
hundred j/kg of mu CAPE south of this front per the SPC mesoanalysis
page. Not much good shear either with stronger winds in the lower
levels. We can not rule out a few stronger wind gusts with the
showers/storm with the dry low levels, but we are not expecting
anything severe at this time.

Otherwise, the NRN front will be continuing to drift south as high
pressure across canada help to push it south. This will enhance the
fgen over the area as the cooler air from the north pushes against
the warmer air to the south. We will see an almost continuous feed
of moisture overrunning this fgen, and providing the area with
periods of rain later tonight through Sat night. We should be far
enough in the cool air mass that the thunder threat will remain
south of the area. The rain should not be too heavy, just persistent.

The pcpn will become more showery on Sunday as the sfc low will
slowly move over the area. The low will be occluding, and the warm
sector looks to stay mainly south of the area. It may clip the far
southern counties, so enough instability could allow for an embedded
storm. At this time, there does not look to much, if any sunshine.

This will also limit the instability potential. The chances of rain
will then diminish Sunday night as the low begins to pull away from
the area.

Long term (Monday through Friday)
issued at 320 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
our fairly dry weather pattern we have had most of the month of
march has come to an end as pacific wave train continues to be
active sending shortwaves on shore over the western CONUS about
every other day. Also the northern stream jet is split and remains
north of 70n until farther notice. This combination does not allow
enough blocking to bring the truly warm air north into michigan for
more than a few hours (as systems move through) and also and more
important, does not allow the arctic express to bring anything this
far south. That precludes any significant snow events. So what we
get is a seemly never ending series of pacific shortwaves tracking
east between 30n and 40n through the conus.

Monday starts with one of those waves moving out but with another
ready to move in. So we will likely get a break for at least 6
hours from the showers during the day time Monday but the next
southern stream system will move in by early Tuesday morning with
more showers. Then there will be a break in the showers as a
stronger pacific system builds an upstream ridge, just big enough to
bring a little canadian air south into michigan resulting in Wed and
thu being dry with near normal temperatures. Beyond that the next
series of pacific systems moves in leading to a wet period for thu
into the weekend (and beyond). The system coming at us later thu
into Saturday could be a fairly strong system with thunderstorms and
severe storms not out of the question. For now I played it down in
the grids but I do believe as we get closer to next weekend we can
define all of this better.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 320 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
i expect solidVFR conditions into late afternoon at all taf
sites. However, it increasingly is looking like the current two
frontal pattern over our area will merge into a signal front near
i-94 by this evening. Several runs of the hrrr and rap model and
the latest run of the NAM shows a convective band developing near
i-94 by 00z that will remain nearly stationary till at least 03z.

The nam12 thunderstorm probability increases to near 80 pct in a
narrow band along i-94 this evening (near 0 prob along i-96 at the
same time). The general over-running rain pattern for all of the
tafs does not really set in until 09z or so. Once started the rain
should continue into midday Saturday.

Ceilings will become ifr behind the front so the i-96 TAF sites
will go ifr at least 3 hours before the i-94 ones do. I expect all
areas to be ifr in rain, drizzle and fog most of the morning
Saturday.

Marine
Issued at 320 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
we will continue the ongoing small craft advisory for this evening
with wind gusts still going up around 25 knots. That said, the
cooler conditions over the water are likely limiting the effects a
bit.

We have stretched the current small craft advisory for the southern
half of the nearshore into Sunday morning, and issued an advisory
for the northern half from late tonight through Sunday morning. We
will see a brisk wind take shape behind the fronts starting later
tonight until Sunday morning. Waves will not be as much of a problem
as the winds themselves with it being an offshore flow.

Hydrology
Issued at 1241 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
a wet pattern will continue through much of the next seven days
with multiple rain events taking place. Rainfall totals over the
next week will generally be in the 0.75 to 1.50 inch range. This
will result in rises on area rivers with some area rivers reaching
bankfull starting late this weekend and continuing at bankfull
potentially through the end of next week. Significant river
flooding is not anticipated with the amount of rainfall that is
expected over the next week.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 6 am Saturday to 11 am edt Sunday for
lmz847>849.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Sunday for lmz844>846.

Synopsis... Njj
short term... Njj
long term... Wdm
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Maczko
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 7 mi30 min N 7 G 8.9 42°F 1016.1 hPa38°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi42 min N 17 G 19
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi42 min NNE 8 G 17 40°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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N10
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NW16
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI5 mi65 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast54°F43°F67%1015 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI18 mi67 minN 13 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F41°F58%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9S11SE8E4SE14S12
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S5S10S10SW7SW8SW5CalmNW9CalmNW7NW7
1 day agoNW3N5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE6SE5SE7SE6SE7SE5SE12SE11SE11SE12SE13
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2 days agoN16
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N13N15
G22
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G19
N6N5N7N6N6N5N6NE12NE944W7W7W9NW9W9W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.