Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon Heights, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:09AMSunset 5:12PM Friday December 15, 2017 10:19 PM EST (03:19 UTC) Moonrise 5:27AMMoonset 3:55PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 859 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 am est Saturday...
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots late at night, then veering northeast toward daybreak. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow overnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy. A chance of snow and a slight chance of light freezing drizzle until midday. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots veering south late in the day. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
LMZ847 Expires:201712161015;;955270 FZUS53 KGRR 160159 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 859 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon Heights, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 160229
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
929 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 322 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
the lake effect snow showers that impacted the area this morning are
diminishing this afternoon. This will continue into early this
evening. Another band of light snow will develop this evening south
of i-96, and will migrate north through Saturday morning before
ending. 1 to 3 inches of new snow will be likely.

A lull in the snow is expected then Saturday night and early Sunday.

Precipitation chances will increase once again later Sunday. The
precipitation will start as some rain or snow as warmer air moves
in, and continue through Monday night before ending.

Update
Issued at 929 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
i have issued a winter weather advisory overnight till 10 am
Saturday morning for 2 to 4 inches of snow. Nearly all of the hi-
resolution models for several runs in a row now are forecasting
around 0.30 inches of QPF from this warm advection isentropic lift
event overnight. The 18z and 00z NAM and several runs of the hrrr
and rap model show around 50 knots nearly perpendicular to the
anisotropic surfaces tonight (around midnight). The focus of the
heaviest precipitation is from southeast kent county northwest
across ottawa into southern muskegon county. Since warm advection
events tend to over preform I though it best to issue the winter
weather advisory for the counties with the heaviest snowfall
overnight.

Short term (this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 322 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
our main focus of the short term is now the light snow expected
tonight, and then p-type questions for Sunday and Sunday night. The
advisory for today will be allowed to expire on time with the new
forecast package.

Lake effect snow showers are on the declining trend this afternoon
with regards to intensity and coverage as expected. The short wave
that helped the uptick today, is now moving east of the area. This
is driving down the inversion heights for a bit.

The break in snow will be short lived, especially for the srn
portion of the cwfa. We will see a sfc trough cold front over the
central portion of the area, drive south to i-94 this evening before
stalling. It stalls out as upper heights start to build also this
evening. We will see a wave of moisture transport translate along
the front and develop a band of light snow.

This looks to develop a NW to SE band of light snow later this
evening, that will gradually shift north to be centered around i-96
by Sat morning. This does not look to be significant enough to
warrant another advisory, but will drop 1-3 inches over a 12-18 hour
time frame. It will end as the wave moves east of the area sat
afternoon.

The next situation will be incoming pcpn late Sun and Sun night. We
will see a short wave across the central and southern plains lift ne
into the area. This wave will be different from the series of waves
we have seen over the past couple of weeks since it will be coming
from the sw. This will allow warmer air to push up into the area.

The pcpn may start out as some snow initially. It will tend to
change over with a SW low level flow advecting above freezing air,
and a sufficient melting layer depth to likely change it over to
rain for at least SRN areas Sun night as temps warm.

It does not look like this system will produce significant impacts.

We will monitor it in case temps do not warm quick enough, and p-
type becomes a problem.

Long term (Monday through Friday)
issued at 322 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
active pattern continues in the extended with two lows moving
through separated by a period of lake effect snow.

The first storm early in the week does not look to have much impact
as the southern stream moisture remains well separated from the
dominant northern stream and the sfc low passes well north of the
forecast area. Cold front comes through Monday night with cold
advection and lake effect snow showers Tuesday and Tuesday night
then tapering off Wednesday as warm advection begins ahead of the
next low. Bumped up superblend pops for lake effect snow showers
during this time period.

The second low comes through Thursday into Friday and continues to
have a lot of ensemble spread between a further north, stronger low
and a weaker, more southern track that would be colder with mostly
snow instead of mostly rain. The 12z operational GFS and ECMWF have
flip flopped with each other since yesterday with the ECMWF now
having the less amplified, colder solution. Did not make any changes
to the pops or temperatures during this time as the blend still
looks like a good compromise.

Looking beyond Friday and to december 25th... The overall synoptic
pattern shows a polar vortex across eastern canada and a SE conus
upper ridge. There is a very impressive temperature gradient between
the great lakes and central atlantic coast, with arctic air and 850
mb temperatures of -20c in lower michigan and a balmy plus 12c near
cape hatteras.

We will have to closely watch where the southern edge of the arctic
air and tropical moisture feeding up from the gulf meet. At this
point it appears we will be solidly in the cold air with some lake
effect snow showers while there could be a band of heavy freezing
rain somewhere to our south... Potentially across the ohio valley.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 618 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
as the current round of lake enhanced snow showers come to an end,
a band of warm advection snow will spread northward though the taf
sites overnight. The i-94 TAF sites will have only light snow, and
that will mostly be prior to 08z. With the heaviest snow being in
the 03z to 06z time frame. Meanwhile for i-96 TAF sites the band
snow will last longer and have heavier snow assoicated with it.

It should be solid ifr for mkg, grr and lan for at least 6 hours
(06z through 12z).

After the snow ends, the i-94 TAF sites may see the low clouds
break up and ceilings beVFR, on the other hand, for the i-96 taf
sites I could see solid ifr CIGS maybe even some fog. This could
be problem if surface temperatures stay below freezing (more than
likely will).

Marine
Issued at 322 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
we will be allowing the current small craft advisory to go on as is
for now. Most of the current obs along the shore continue to support
advisory conditions. Winds will gradually ease up, and waves will
slowly follow suit. The 5 am expiration time looks good at this
point.

Hydrology
Issued at 322 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
many rivers have iced over due to the snow and cold temperatures.

The looking glass near eagle has risen above bankfull due to
downstream ice constricting the flow. It is expected to gradually
fall but some fluctuations are still possible. High temperatures
above freezing early next week will soften the ice a bit. Water
frozen in the snowpack ranges from 0.5 to 1 inch in most locations,
but a full snowmelt is not expected anytime soon.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Saturday for miz050-051-
056>059-064>067.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lmz844>849.

Update... Wdm
synopsis... Njj
short term... Njj
long term... Ostuno
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Cas
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 7 mi30 min NNW 13 G 15 31°F 1012.9 hPa25°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi50 min W 20 G 27 1011.1 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi50 min WNW 8.9 G 14 26°F 15°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI5 mi25 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast31°F21°F69%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN15
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N10N12N6N4N4CalmCalmCalmE3SE3E3CalmSE4S4SE5E5SE4SE4SE6W5NW5W4W4
2 days agoCalmSE3SE5SE5SE7SE7SE7SE9SE10SE11SE16SE13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.