Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon Heights, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:30PM Thursday June 22, 2017 10:18 AM EDT (14:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:00AMMoonset 6:50PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 938 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers through early afternoon, then scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Widespread showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Isolated showers until midday. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ847 Expires:201706222115;;638497 FZUS53 KGRR 221338 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 938 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-222115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon Heights, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 221123
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
723 am edt Thu jun 22 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 326 am edt Thu jun 22 2017
a cold front currently stretches from western minnesota south to
northeast nebraska. A warm front stretched from central wisconsin
southeast to near chicago. Thunderstorms were developing over iowa
and wisconsin and moving toward lower michigan.

The next 24-30 hours will be stormy until the cold front passes
through the state Friday. Several days of cooler weather will
follow with highs in the lower to mid 70s over the weekend.

Short term (today through Saturday)
issued at 326 am edt Thu jun 22 2017
forecast concerns deal with convective trends through Friday
morning.

A robust low level jet continues to generate convection in wisconsin
as it intersects the warm front that is in the vicinity. This
convection will continue for the next several hours as it moves
across the lake and the northern cwa. The larger mcs... If it makes
it... Would arrive mid morning, but instability isn't all that high
over the CWA yet so we may see some dissipation prior to arrival.

At this point, the higher chance of showers storms will come this
evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Moderately strong shear
values around 35 knots may aid in some organization this evening as
they approach the cwa. Latest 3km NAM actually shows the convection
dissipating as it crosses the CWA after midnight. So does the wrf-
arw. The GFS does give us some pcpn tonight, but even that weakens
quite a bit as it moves east. Given that this front is fairly strong
with decent shear, not ready to completely bail on the pcpn yet.

Skies will clear Friday behind the departing cold front. The airmass
will become cooler and drier and highs Saturday will only reach the
lower 70s.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 326 am edt Thu jun 22 2017
northwest upper flow will keep the region cool through Tuesday, with
a slight warm up possible by Wednesday. A series of short waves
early in the week will produce scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms.

H8 temps hold around +6c Saturday night through Tuesday. This will
keep us cool, with daily high temps mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This will be about 10 degrees below normal for this time of
year. The models disagree how long this pattern holds, with the
ecmwf hanging on to the cool northwest flow into Wednesday, while
the GFS becomes more zonal. Will go optimistic and have Wednesday
warming into the mid and upper 70s.

As for rain chances, there will be several short waves that will be
passing through the mean flow early in the week. Sunday and Monday
stand the best chance of seeing mainly afternoon scattered
showers thunderstorms. These should be most commonplace inland from
the lake however, with an afternoon lake shadow likely. Highest pops
over the eastern cwa. Again, the models differ into the middle of
the week, but will bank on a more zonal flow and less chance of rain.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 721 am edt Thu jun 22 2017
a slowly weakening MCS is moving east across wisconsin and
northern lower. We could see showers storms through 17z, then a
dry period before more storms develop late this afternoon across
the northern TAF sites and eventually this evening over the
southern TAF sites. MainlyVFR conditions expected until after 06z
when MVFR CIGS and perhaps ifr CIGS develop.

Marine
Issued at 326 am edt Thu jun 22 2017
we'll continue the small craft advisory today as southwest winds 15-
25 knots will develop behind the warm front that is moving northeast
through the state. Several rounds of thunderstorms will also be
hazardous to small craft through Friday morning.

Hydrology
Issued at 310 pm edt Tue jun 20 2017
the uncertain extent of coverage, location, and repetition of
thunderstorms Thursday morning and Thursday night makes the
rainfall forecast difficult. However, with pw values between 1.5
and 1.75 inches favoring efficient rain production (above the 90th
percentile for this time of year and approaching some june daily
record values in the dtx-area sounding climatology), and a tendency
for storms to repeat over parts of the area, it seems reasonable
that some spots could receive over 2 inches of rainfall. The most
favored area for significant rain totals will be north of i-96 and
perhaps closer to us-10.

The tendency for flooding to develop will depend on local antecedent
conditions. While may and early june were rather dry, last week's
rainfall ranged from 1.5 to locally over 5 inches in areas north of
south haven, hastings, and lansing. Locations that saw heavy rain
last week will be more prone to have at least minor areal or street
flooding from heavy downpours on Thursday. As for rivers, the rogue
near rockford, the flat near smyrna, and the maple near maple rapids
are running high after last week's rain, and will be less tolerant
of any additional heavy rain that falls within their basins. Above
bankfull rises are possible, so people with interests along those
rivers should monitor the situation.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 6 pm edt this evening for miz037-
043-050-056-064-071.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... 04
short term... 04
long term... Jk
aviation... 04
hydrology... Cas
marine... 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 7 mi38 min WSW 15 G 17 68°F 1009.8 hPa65°F
45161 9 mi58 min SW 12 G 14 67°F 67°F2 ft1010.3 hPa
45029 23 mi38 min SW 14 G 18 68°F 67°F3 ft1010.6 hPa63°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi54 min S 16 G 19 70°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi54 min SSW 12 G 18 68°F 64°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI5 mi23 minSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F64°F74%1010.1 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI18 mi27 minSSW 510.00 miFair71°F66°F86%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW7SW8SW10W9W8SW7W54SW5CalmCalmCalmSE4SE6SE6SE7SE9S10SE7S20
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1 day agoSW10
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N45SW12W11W11W4W6CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSW5
2 days agoW11W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.