Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon Heights, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:46AMSunset 7:58PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 10:09 PM EDT (02:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:38PMMoonset 6:56AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 412 Pm Est Fri Jan 25 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Saturday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Freezing spray through the day. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Heavy freezing spray through the night. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2019, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ847 Expires:201901260415;;919601 FZUS53 KGRR 252113 CCA NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast...corrected National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 412 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon Heights, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 210207
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1007 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 321 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
- rain, at times mixed with snow, will continue through the
evening hours with locally up to an inch of accumulation
possible.

- another wave will swing through Thursday night mostly dry but
make way for a blustery Friday.

- Saturday and Sunday look pleasant with another system possible
early next week (low confidence).

Update
Issued at 1007 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
as secondary NRN stream shortwave drops in, we're seeing another
flare up of precipitation over western sections of the area
behind the main batch which has now edged into eastern sections.

Although the ongoing light rain or mixed rain and snow will
eventually wind down overnight, areas of drizzle and fog will
linger. Widespread dense fog is not expected although some local
visibilities around 1 2 mile are possible.

There is some concern for a few slick spots developing overnight
across the interior of central lwr mi (north of i-96 and
near east of highway 131) where guidance shows temps falling to,
or slightly below, freezing. Bridges and overpasses would be most
susceptible as residual moisture on the roads could freeze up.

Discussion (this evening through next Wednesday)
issued at 321 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
as expected, precipitation has expanded northward this afternoon in
response to upper-level diffluence associated with a nearly
meridional (e.G. North to south) oriented jet streak over minnesota
and zonal (east to west) jet streak over the tennessee river
valley. Snow has been mixing in at times, with areas along i-94
seeing as much as a coating on grass thus far. From this point
forward, we expect much of the same with rain at times mixing with
snow with up to an inch of snow on the grass. We still have
concern that a few slicks spots will be possible for the evening
commute (especially on overpasses that can cool at or below
freezing quickly). However, the impacts are expected to be local
enough such that a headline seems unnecessary.

Precipitation is expected to end from west to east around
sunset, but closer to midnight across our far east. Attention will
then turn to the west as a compact surface low pressure system
associated with the aforementioned northerly wave tracks toward
lake michigan. Interestingly, the 12z suite of high resolution
model guidance suggests a band of low-topped convective showers
will accompany the surface low as it tracks toward lower michigan,
which seems feasible given a region of steep mid-level lapse
rates across eastern wisconsin as indicated by the SPC rap
mesoanalysis. I'll be honest--i'm not sure how far southeast the
band will get but there is a fair chance that lakeshore
communities may see another round of showers (rain snow mix) after
dark.

Thursday doesn't look half bad with highs in the low to mid 40s,
partly cloudy skies, and westerly winds of 10-15 kts. Thursday
night, a fairly potent shortwave trough will dive south across lower
michigan but the low-level moisture profiles at least at this
point suggest that precipitation will be scarce, likely
translating to light snow showers. The most noticeable impact will
be a blustery Friday as 850 mb temperatures bottom out to -10 c
or so, making way for surface high temperatures in the 30s with
northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph (e.G. Wind chills in the 20s). As
skies clear during the evening, Friday night will be chilly with
lows dropping into the teens to lower 20s. Wind chills may flirt
with the single digits, especially in traditional cold spots.

On the bright side, Saturday looks great with sunny skies and highs
in the low to mid 40s thanks to a surface high pressure system
drifting through the great lakes. Sunday looks similar though clouds
should increase during the afternoon and evening hours as a cold
front upper-level wave approaches from the north. Deterministic
forecast model guidance is somewhat "jumpy" with the evolution and
hence precipitation chances with the front centered on Monday, with
ensemble model guidance not being much more help (in fact, the
trend over the past few ensemble suites is for *less*
precipitation areawide). The discrepancies revolve around how a
surface wave ejecting from the plains may interact with the
aforementioned upper- level wave, the details of which are all but
certain to change. For now, we'll continue low-end chances for
precipitation.

Looking far head, there is a strong signal in ensemble model
guidance for a dry and sunny period during the middle portion of
next week with a return to active weather toward the first of april
(no joke).

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 750 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
widespread ifr conditions this evening trending down further
overnight to widespread lifr. Evening though the current rain or
mixed rain and snow will be ending, stratus and fog will linger
through the night with a lowering of CIGS and vsbys.

Only gradual improvement expected on Thursday as CIGS vsbys lift
slowly with time. Mostly ifr lifr in the morning will trend toward
predominately MVFR for the afternoon. SomeVFR should begin
showing up by 21z, particularly at the lakeshore including the
mkg terminal.

Hydrology
Issued at 321 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
the grand and muskegon rivers remain high after the widespread
rainfall and snowmelt last week. Flood warnings remain in effect for
the grand river at comstock park and robinson township, although all
locations have crested and water levels are declining. Meanwhile, a
flood advisory remains in effect for newaygo county as frozen ground
continues to limit the ability of the standing water to drain away
from some roads and buildings.

A mix of rain and snow is falling today generally along and south of
i-96. Up to one-half inch of rain is expected in some areas. This
will cause the smallest streams in the area to rise a bit, but is
not expected to result in any hazardous conditions, and should not
reverse the downward trend on the medium and larger rivers. However,
it could aggravate the problem of ponding and stranded water that is
ongoing in newaygo county.

The next chance for widespread precipitation does not move into our
area until Sunday night Monday of next week, but at this point it
looks like the worst of this storm may stay to our south. Otherwise,
generally quiet weather is expected for the next week or so, with
continued gradual melting of any snow that remains on the ground.

Grr watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... Meade
synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Meade
hydrology... Amd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 7 mi49 min ESE 6 G 7 34°F 1014.6 hPa34°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi57 min E 2.9 G 4.1 37°F 35°F1012.4 hPa37°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi57 min ESE 4.1 G 7 35°F 33°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI5 mi74 minE 41.50 miFog/Mist35°F32°F89%1013.7 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI18 mi73 minE 31.75 miLight Snow34°F33°F100%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE3SE3SE4SE3SE4S6SW9W9SW8SW9W7SW8SW11SW10S7S7S6S6
2 days agoCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W8W8W9W8W9W8W9W6SW8SW6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.