Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:30PM Thursday June 21, 2018 12:59 AM EDT (04:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 1:32AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 930 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering northeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers overnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ847 Expires:201806210915;;857155 FZUS53 KGRR 210130 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 930 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-210915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 210446
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1246 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 318 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018
a upper low moving across indiana and illinois will result in
showers over the southern and eastern CWA during the next 48 hours.

Although heavy rain isn't expected, quite a bit of cloudiness is at
least through the first half of the weekend. Sunday through Tuesday
looks mainly dry. Highs will be a couple of degrees below normal
during the next week.

Short term (this evening through Friday night)
issued at 318 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018
forecast concerns deal with precipitation trends as low pressure
moves across illinois and indiana.

The short range models have been pretty consistent in showing an
upper low slowly moving east across illinois and indiana tonight
before moving northeast toward cleveland.

Tomorrow looks dry as showers associated with the low will remain
southwest of the cwa. However as the low gets closer and short waves
pivoting around the low move north into the cwa, we'll see showers
develop. It's possible a thunderstorm could develop too, but much of
this precipitation will not involve thunder. The low's pivot toward
northeast ohio will result in showers lingering over the eastern cwa
Friday night.

The clouds and showers will result in highs Friday and Saturday in
the 70s.

Long term (Saturday through Wednesday)
issued at 318 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018
a weakening upper low will be lifting northeast through the eastern
great lakes on Saturday. The better chances for rain with this
system will likely be off to our east. Chances for rain will be
stratified from west to east over southwest lower michigan with 20
percent chances west to 50-60 percent in the east.

Another upper shortwave trough will try to move by to our south on
Sunday and we have small chances for rain showers there at that
time. So, rain is expected over the weekend, but it will not be an
entire washout by any means.

High pressure builds in for Monday and Tuesday bringing dry weather
to the region. Another upper low will approach the great lakes in
the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame and showers return to the
forecast.

Temperatures look to be a bit below normal over the weekend with
clouds and some rain in the area. Readings will warm into the middle
portion of next week ahead of a surface trough.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1246 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
with calm winds and low-level moisture augmented from heavy
rainfall that fell last night, conditions have become favorable
for pockets of fog through the early morning hours at azo btl jxn.

Rather than playing the "catch up" game with amendments tonight
(e.G. I expect visibility to go back and forth between MVFR ifr
through the overnight period), I elected to have prevailing MVFR
visibilities at the southern TAF sites with 4-hour tempo groups
for ifr visibilities of 2sm at azo btl. At jxn, there seems to be
a better signal for denser fog so I have 1 2 visibility in that
tempo group. The fog is expected to abate fairly quickly after
sunrise as increasing winds aid in mixing in dry air into the
low-level stable layer.

The other concern for our southern TAF sites is the potential for
light showers starting toward daybreak in an elongated zone of
precipitation from the ohio river valley toward southern minnesota.

Numerical model guidance seems a bit too dry for my liking (e.G.

Again there is quite a bit of low-level moisture from the heavy
rain last night) so I added vcsh for now with the expectation
that later forecast packages will refine my forecast based on
observations. It is quite possible that -ra is added to
azo btl for Thursday afternoon by the 12z forecast package.

At mkg lan grr,VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire TAF period. Precipitation may near grr and lan toward the end
of the forecast period.

Finally, winds will pick up during the afternoon on Thursday and
gust to 15-20 kts at all TAF sites before quickly abating toward
sunset.

Marine
Issued at 318 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018
northeast winds 5 to 15 knots will create uneventful conditions on
the lake tonight and Thursday.

Hydrology
Issued at 1234 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018
look for minor rises on rivers streams along and south of i-94 over
the next couple of days. Around an inch of rain has fallen in that
region recently and the runoff continues.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... 04
short term... 04
long term... Duke
aviation... Borchardt
hydrology... 04
marine... 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 4 mi49 min E 5.1 G 7 66°F 1011.7 hPa63°F
45029 23 mi29 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 67°F 69°F1 ft1011.1 hPa62°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi59 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 65°F 1011.2 hPa (+0.3)64°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi59 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 61°F 56°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI3 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair65°F61°F87%1011.9 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI20 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair64°F61°F94%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8E8E11E8E11E10NE10E8E8E9E8NE6E8E8NE6W4E6W8NW6W4W3--N4Calm
1 day agoN8N6NE6NE4NE7NE7E6NE3NE5E8E9E10NE7E9E8E11E8NE10E8E9NE6NE5NE8NE7
2 days agoSW12SW11SW17
G22
SW12SW14W6S5S6S9SW10W10SW7SW6W9W7W7NW5NW5NW4NW4NW6N4N7N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.