Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday April 18, 2019 3:07 PM EDT (19:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:43PMMoonset 5:56AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 1134 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 pm edt this evening through Saturday morning...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely through early afternoon, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers until midday, then mostly Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. A slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..North winds around 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ847 Expires:201904182115;;115554 FZUS53 KGRR 181534 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1134 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-182115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 181745
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
145 pm edt Thu apr 18 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 327 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
- thunderstorms possible from through Thursday
- rounds of rainfall expected into Saturday
- showers possible Sunday early next week
- near seasonable temperatures through the 7 day forecast period

Update
Issued at 1125 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
the latest radar images show more rain showers developing moving
up into the area this morning from the sw. The surface front is
currently located roughly along a line from east of big rapids,
down to near the kalamazoo area. This front is trying to push
east, while another wave and low level jet is riding along the
front and helping to develop more rain.

The expectation is that the rain showers will continue to expand
over the next couple of hours, before being shunted to the east as
the low level jet and sfc front push east, and we see rain showers
shift east late this afternoon. The thunder threat is in the
process of diminishing as the front moves east, and pushes any
instability out. Areas near jackson could see a rumble of thunder
through 18z or so, before the threat completely ends.

Discussion (today through next Wednesday)
issued at 327 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
the main challenges in the the forecast period deal with the
timing and impact of any rounds of heavy rain. Also the risk
for snow is not zero Saturday morning with some suggests that
parts of the area may see some.

To start this morning one area of rain will be lifting
northeastward into the cwa. There will be some instability
present and pwat values are above average. Thus the rain
could be heavy in places. Right now the area to the southeast
of grand rapids appears to be most favored for the heavier rain.

This is where the low level jet will be aimed. This afternoon
another low level jet is shown to form upstream in indiana. The
nose of this feature will support additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms for much of the southeast cwa. There is a small
risk that the heavy rain and convection could occur further north
and west in the CWA depending on how this feature evolves. Right
now forecasted QPF amounts look under hazardous levels... So no
watch for flooding. However we will need to continue to monitor
the pattern closely. Should some Sun break out and surface based
instability develops during the day... Especially towards
jackson... An increased risk for severe weather would exist given
the proximity to the forecasted low level jet.

The mid level low that forms lower ms valley Thursday night into
Friday is shown to lift up the west spine of the appalachians on
Saturday. This is a westward trend and supports more precipitation
for the forecast area. The combination of height
falls... Deformation... Upper level divergence and an unseasonably
moist airmass will favor precipitation at times. We will feature
relatively high pops mainly for southeast parts of the cwa.

Considering most of the rounds of precipitation are expected to
occur over the same area... An increased risk for flooding could
exist. Forecast soundings from the namnest are showing conditions
becoming favorable for snow for parts of the i94 corridor Friday
and more so Saturday morning. Close monitoring will be needed here
for this potential. We will keep it rain at this time.

The mid level low pulls Saturday night with a ridge moving in for
Sunday into Monday. At the surface though an inverted trough sets
up. If enough moisture is present there could be some showers
around. Temperature at the surface should be warmer than Saturday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 145 pm edt Thu apr 18 2019
plenty of low clouds and fog producing ifr associated with the
rain showers early this afternoon, especially at the western
terminals. These conditions will spread over the eastern terminals
through the next 2-3 hours. We will then see the showers come to
an end for a brief period as one wave moves out. There could be
some thunder near kjxn through about 21z as a line is starting to
organize with the front south of the area. Once that moves
through, the thunder threat should be done for our area.

After a break early this evening, the rain showers will move back
in from the sse late this evening and during the early overnight
hours. Kmkg will see it move in later, and will see it for less
time than the terminals further se. In fact, kjxn may only see 2-4
hours of a break. Ifr will be likely again, especially se. Winds
will start to gust again later tonight and on Friday, after they
come down early this evening.

Marine
Issued at 1125 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
we will be issuing a new small craft advisory for the nearshore
waters that will go into Saturday. We are seeing winds and waves
dropping off in the wake of the front moving through this morning.

Conditions will deteriorate again late tonight and on Friday as a
stronger low takes shape just to our se. The worst conditions
will be over the open waters of the lake, but winds will still be
quite strong being just below gales. Little and big sable points
will feel the brunt of the conditions. Conditions will gradually
improve on Saturday.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Saturday for lmz844>849.

Update... Njj
synopsis... Mjs
discussion... Mjs
aviation... Njj
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 4 mi28 min NNW 16 G 17 40°F 1003.7 hPa40°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi56 min NNW 6 G 7 39°F 46°F1001.8 hPa39°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi56 min NNW 7 G 11 38°F 37°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI3 mi73 minNNW 52.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist47°F43°F86%1001.1 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI20 mi73 minNNW 11 G 145.00 miRain47°F45°F97%1000.3 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE18E14
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G36
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SW13SW8SW4SW6W3W5W7NW9NW5NW7
1 day agoW7W5NW4CalmNE4NE8E9NE10NE7E9E9E11E12E9E11E12E9E12E14E14
G22
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E18
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2 days agoSW8W6CalmSW3S6CalmSE3SE3CalmE4SE6SE7SE8E7E4E7E5SE10CalmSE7SE5S13SW12W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.