Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 6:56PM Friday October 19, 2018 9:54 AM EDT (13:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 1:38AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 332 Am Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Today..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers until midday, then rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots veering northwest after midnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Saturday..Northwest gales to 35 knots becoming to 30 knots. Rain showers likely until midday, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. A slight chance of waterspouts through the day. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet toward daybreak.
LMZ847 Expires:201810191530;;406065 FZUS53 KGRR 190732 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 332 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-191530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 191139
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
739 am edt Fri oct 19 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 324 am edt Fri oct 19 2018
rain chances will be on the increase today as a wave of low pressure
approaches the area. These rain chances will linger into this
evening before a temporary break in the rain moves in. Another wave
of rain showers will move in on Saturday as a strong wave of low
pressure drops into the western great lakes. Lingering rain showers
may have some snow mix in Saturday afternoon and evening as colder
air moves in. Rain showers should end early Sunday.

We are expecting mainly quiet and seasonable weather then for much
of next week. The is a small chance of a shower up north on Monday
night and Tuesday morning as a system moves by to our north. That
looks to be the only chance of precipitation until toward the end of
next week.

Discussion (today through next Thursday)
issued at 324 am edt Fri oct 19 2018
the main period of concern over the next seven days will be the
first 36 to 48 hours of the forecast going into Sunday morning. We
will have a couple of periods of rain showers, with some snow and
graupel small hail possibly mixing in Sat afternoon as colder air
advects in.

The first batch of rain showers looks like it will be focused from
this afternoon through mid-evening, before tapering off a bit. This
rain shower activity will be supported by a short wave that is over
the dakotas, and will traverse the area through 00z tonight.

Rainfall with this system will be limited a bit as it will not have
a good connection to gulf moisture ahead of it, and it will be quite
progressive.

The break in the rain will be brief, as the next wave will be poised
to spread rain in over the area Sat morning. The system supporting
this rain is much stronger. The short wave that will be responsible
for this batch is currently NW of hudson bay, and will dive sse very
quickly. The strong forcing ahead of the wave will arrive sat
morning, and move out Sat afternoon. If some locations across the se
portion of the area see some warming before the front moves in,
there could be some embedded thunder briefly before the front moves
through.

The cold air aloft with the wave will then likely touch off
scattered instability showers Sat afternoon before diminishing sat
evening with the loss of day light. The convective nature of the
showers and colder air coming in freezing levels dropping will
support some snow flakes mixing in, and even some graupel small hail
in the heavier showers. Some light lake effect will likely linger
into Sat night along the immediate lakeshore with a nnw flow for a
bit. This should all end early Sunday as the upper flow goes
anti- cyclonic, cold pool aloft moves out, and sfc ridge builds
in.

Once the pcpn early Sunday moves out, we could potentially remain
dry through the end of the fcst period through thu, with seasonable
temperatures. This results from the long wave upper trough lifting
to our ne. The is a good chance the upper jet would stay far enough
away, that any short waves would not affect SW lower. If a short
wave would dive far enough se, we could see a chc of a few showers.

For now, it looks like we stay under confluent flow aloft with the
upper ridge axis staying west. Return flow at the sfc would bring
seasonable temperatures back into the area, and hold them in through
next thu.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 739 am edt Fri oct 19 2018
vfr conditions will continue into this afternoon when showers move
in and ceilings come down below 3000 feet agl. Southwest to west winds
will be gusting over 20 knots at times from afternoon into the
evening.

Marine
Issued at 324 am edt Fri oct 19 2018
we are looking at an active period out on the lake through sat, and
again later on Sunday after a brief break early Sunday. We will be
approaching gales today and tonight with the first front moving
through. A much better gale threat will come Sat as a stronger
system moves through, and colder air moves in. In addition with the
wind, waterspouts will become possible. The waterspout threat will
be somewhat limited by the stronger winds.

Hydrology
Issued at 128 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018
precipitation through the middle of next week should have little
impact on water levels in area rivers and streams. Meanwhile, water
levels continue to remain steady or slowly fall. This trend is
likely to continue for most locations, but we could see a small rise
on smaller rivers and streams Saturday where the heaviest
precipitation falls.

Showers Friday and Friday night will only bring light amounts of
rain to the area. On Saturday, a stronger trough of low pressure
will bring up to one-half inch of liquid water (combination of rain
and melted snow graupel) to portions of lower michigan. The location
of this heavier swath of precipitation is still uncertain, but looks
to fall somewhere between the southern state line and m-10.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Njj
discussion... Njj
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 4 mi25 min WSW 23 G 26 54°F 1018.2 hPa46°F
45161 6 mi35 min SW 18 G 21 54°F 57°F6 ft
45029 23 mi25 min SW 19 G 23 55°F 58°F4 ft1018.9 hPa43°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi37 min SSW 20 G 24 55°F 53°F1018.2 hPa41°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi37 min SSW 12 G 18 54°F 45°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI3 mi60 minSW 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F42°F64%1018.8 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI20 mi78 minSW 810.00 miFair49°F43°F78%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE76SW11SW12S15
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1 day agoNW9
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N8N7N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm
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--N13
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N8NW4CalmN4N10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.