Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:07AMSunset 5:46PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 5:41 PM EST (22:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:03PMMoonset 10:01AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 326 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots veering northwest to 30 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day.
Thursday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Friday..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers until midday, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
LMZ847 Expires:201901240430;;814717 FZUS53 KGRR 232026 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 326 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-240430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 232026
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
326 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 300 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
-impactful lake effect event Thursday night and Friday due to
combination of bitter cold, wind, frequent whiteouts
-additional significant lake effect bitter cold over the weekend
-several inches of synoptic snow possible next Monday-Tuesday

Discussion (this evening through next Wednesday)
issued at 300 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
several surges of arctic air will arrive through the period
resulting in impacts.

To start the low pressure system that impacted the region over
the past couple of days was near alma and will track east for the
rest of the afternoon. West northwesterly winds around this
system will draw in colder air from wisconsin. Meanwhile a surface
wave of low pressure developing in minnesota will drop into
western lower mi Thursday afternoon and evening. As this system
taps lake mi for moisture the snow will expand as it moves in.

Winds will focus the snow accumulations for western parts of the
cwa. Arctic air will pour in behind this system into Friday night.

Lake effect will be rather continuous. As for amount... They will
be somewhat limited by the fact that the dgz GOES into the ground
on Friday and stays there into early Saturday. Deeper mixing
Thursday night into Friday will allow for some gusts over 30 mph
which may support blowing snow as well. Either way low level winds
will support the highest accumulations mainly to the southwest
and northwest of grand rapids. Inland some of the snow bands may
feature briefly heavy snow so there is possible impacts there as
well. So for now we will feature a winter weather advisory for the
western couple of rows of counties.

Next up is another wave of low pressure that pushes through
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. We will need to monitor this
one closely given the favorable lake enhancement that could
occur. Moisture depth climbs to near 700 mb as well. Another surge
of arctic air moves in behind this system.

Then guidance has been showing a larger storm to take a track
eastward just south of the CWA Monday into Tuesday. This is
forecasted to be more widespread synoptic snowfall with an increased
risk for greater impacts. On the backside of this wave northerly
winds will support a long fetch with possible significant banding
of the snow along the lakeshore. In addition... The arctic airmass
will be reinforced with cold weather impacts expected.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1242 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
the last batch of steadier precipitation was pulling through the
taf sites at this time and should head off east of the area by mid
afternoon. The TAF sites further northwest such as kmkg and kgrr
may see snow mixing in or prevailing for a few hours this
afternoon. Low level moisture will remain abundant into the late
afternoon and evening hours... So ifr should prevail. I am not as
confident on the freezing drizzle happening... So I took it out. We
will need to monitor trends for this possibility.

It does look like the next system will be arriving in the kmkg
area just before 18z so I included snow in the forecast. That snow
is expected to spread further inland during the remainder of the
afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 300 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
the combination of cold air advection and gusty winds will support
hazardous boating conditions for small craft for the next couple
of periods. There could even be some freezing spray at times.

Hydrology
Issued at 300 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
warm temperatures and rain over the last 24 hours have melted some
of the snowpack around the area (mainly south of i-96) and generated
some runoff into the streams. Water levels around the area have
ticked upward, but no significant amounts of runoff have yet hit the
streams. With a quick return to cold temperatures expected this
evening, much of this runoff may freeze again before it reaches the
rivers. So while some rises are expected, no rivers are expected to
reach bankfull. The one exception is the flat river near smyrna
where the river remains frozen up with elevated water and ice levels
remaining steady near bankfull.

Ice production on our rivers will resume on Thursday, and really
crank up again on Friday and beyond as the temperatures plunge back
down into the bitter cold category. Ice jams remain a possibility,
especially at locations prone to ice jam issues, as we head into the
weekend and early next week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from noon Thursday to 7 pm est Friday
for miz037>039-043>045-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Friday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Mjs
discussion... Mjs
aviation... Mjs
hydrology... Amd
marine... Mjs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi53 min NW 21 G 27 1004.2 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi53 min NNW 6 G 12 29°F 24°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI3 mi2.8 hrsNW 117.00 miLight Snow31°F25°F79%1002.9 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI20 mi2 hrsWNW 9 G 144.00 miLight Snow28°F26°F93%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE7SE9SE8SE6SE4SE4SE6SE3N3S4N3NE9NE8N5NE8N4N5N6N6N7NW8NW11NW12
1 day agoSE8SE8E7E6E8SE7SE11SE15SE11SE12SE14SE12SE11SE12SE16SE14SE16
G23
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2 days ago--N12NE13NE9N4N4NE5CalmNE3NE4CalmE3CalmS3CalmCalmE4SE7E5SE7SE6E6SE8SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.