Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayside, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:25PM Monday November 19, 2018 9:13 AM CST (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 3:34AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 907 Am Cst Mon Nov 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm cst this evening through Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots veering west 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then veering northwest late in the afternoon. Chance of snow in the late morning and early afternoon. Slight chance of snow late in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of snow through around midnight. Chance of snow after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing west with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon, then rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots veering west with gusts to around 30 knots late in the evening, then becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots after midnight becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:201811192300;;542536 FZUS53 KMKX 191507 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 907 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-192300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayside, WI
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location: 43.24, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 191132
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
532 am cst Mon nov 19 2018

Update
The forecast remains on track for this morning.

Aviation(12z tafs)
A shortwave will bring a chance for snow mid-morning into the
afternoon. The best chance for a light dusting will be north of
madison and milwaukee, though most places will see at least some
flurries. Ceilings will probably drop to MVFR for a times this
afternoon into early evening.

The combination of a weak wave and some possible lake
effect enhancement will likely bring some light snow to the
lakeshore counties mid evening into early tonight. This could
result in a quick dusting. MVFR ceilings and briefly lower
visibilities will be possible with this snow.

Prev discussion (issued 238 am cst Mon nov 19 2018)
discussion...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium to high:
a weak shortwave and surface low will move through the area today,
bringing a period of light snow. The best chance for a dusting
will be for areas north of milwaukee and madison. Most places are
expected to see at least some flurries though given some lift and
decent low and mid level saturation. This activity is expected
from around mid-morning through late afternoon. Below normal temps
will continue today, with highs struggling into the low 30s.

A weak low level trough will drop southward across the lake this
evening into tonight, bringing a wind shift to the north. Have
some chance to likely snow chances brushing the lakeshore counties
for a period of time. The mean low level flow will have a slight
easterly component, which should bring some lake enhancement effect
along with the wave. Could see a quick dusting.

Tuesday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure over the area early on Tuesday will drift south in
response to low pressure tracking across lake superior. We'll see
a trailing front drift south into the area late Tuesday night, but
it'll wash out as high pressure quickly returns. So, continued
dry with any associated light snow staying well north. The cold
will continue on Tuesday with high temps running about 10 degrees
below normal. We modify a tad on Wednesday, but remain below
normal. A southerly flow returns on thanksgiving as high pressure
drifts east and low pressure takes shape over the central plains.

We remain dry with temps a notch warmer for the holiday... This
signals the start to a milder stretch of weather heading into the
weekend.

Friday and Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

We'll finally see some high temps in the 40s, but it comes with
the likelihood of some rainfall. A decent mid level short wave
will dig into the central CONUS on Friday and pivot into the great
lakes on Saturday. The various long range models are at odds with
the timing and form it will take, so there is some uncertainty
for precip timing. For now, the best chance looks like Friday
night into Saturday morning. It does look warm enough to keep the
bulk of the precipitation in the form of rain. The ec is much
slower than the GFS on Friday, holding off any rain until Friday
night. So, it's possible we could get a dry afternoon for all
those black Friday shoppers. We should see the rain diminish
Saturday afternoon.

Sunday and Monday... Forecast confidence is low.

How the pattern evolves into early next week is up for grabs. The
ecmwf generates a potent closed mid level wave Sunday night on
the heels of the one exiting on Saturday. The canadian has a
broader closed wave, while the GFS is more open and progressive.

The ec takes a deepening surface low across northeast illinois
with temps cold enough on the back side to bring snow to southern
wisconsin. But, the other models, given their weaker solutions
suggests little concern for snow. We'll have to wait and see on
this one.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

quiet weather is expected overnight, with high clouds lingering
across southern wisconsin. A shortwave will then bring a chance
for snow mid-morning into the afternoon. The best chance for a
light dusting will be north of madison and milwaukee, though most
places will see at least some flurries. Ceilings will probably
drop to MVFR for a times this afternoon into early evening.

The combination of a weak waves and some possible lake
effect enhancement will likely bring some light snow to the
lakeshore counties mid evening into early tonight. This could
result in a quick dusting. MVFR ceilings and briefly lower
visibilities will be possible with this snow.

Marine...

northerly winds gusting to 25 to 30 knots will develop by late
afternoon in the northern portions of lake michigan. This area of
higher gusts will travel southward through the lake during the
evening and overnight hours. Waves will increase as well. A small
craft advisory may be needed for the nearshore waters from late
evening into the night.

Lighter winds for the first part of Tuesday will pick up later in
the day and into the night. West to northwest gusts to 30 knots
seem likely. There will be a better chance for a small craft
advisory over the nearshore waters for this round of winds.

Gale force southerly winds may impact the area later Thursday
into Friday night.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Ddv
today tonight and aviation marine... Ddv
Tuesday through Sunday... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 10 mi34 min W 8 G 12 28°F 1017.9 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 14 mi34 min WSW 11 G 14 28°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 36 mi74 min SSW 5.1 G 6 27°F 1017.4 hPa (-0.6)15°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi74 min SW 8 G 11 26°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI13 mi29 minWSW 810.00 miOvercast27°F15°F64%1016.9 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi22 minSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F17°F63%1018 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI20 mi19 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast27°F17°F69%1015.9 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI24 mi29 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy25°F15°F69%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W8W9SW9W10W10W6W7SW5SW5SW6SW6SW6W4SW6SW4W5SW5W3SW4SW5SW7SW6SW8
1 day agoN7N5N6N6N5N7N8N9N4N5N5N3N5N4N4N4NW4NW3N5NW5NW6NW3NW4NW5
2 days agoNW12
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W10W6W9NW4NW4W5NW4W5NW6NW7NW4CalmW3NW3N3N3N6N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.