Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chester, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:24PM Saturday November 18, 2017 5:21 AM EST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:38AMMoonset 5:57PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, VT
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location: 43.26, -72.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 180950
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
450 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
A low pressure system will approach from the west today,
resulting in clouds and rain chances both increasing throughout
the day. Rain will be widespread overnight with temperatures
steady or increasing. A strong cold front will sweep across the
area Sunday morning, resulting in windy conditions and falling
temperatures. Precipitation will become less widespread and
begin to mix with snow over the higher terrain. Lake effect snow
will occur in favored regions Sunday night into Monday.

Near term through tonight
Early this morning, an elongated area of low pressure is located
across the central plains and upper midwest. This low is
downstream of a positively tilted shortwave trough crossing
colorado. An area of showers was located from southeast ontario
into eastern ohio in a warm advection pattern along a strong
low-level jet. This forcing is forecast to weaken somewhat as it
encounters the remnants of an upper ridge and a dry airmass over
the northeast us. Locally, mid and high clouds are continuing to
stream into the area. Expect these clouds to continue to thicken
and lower throughout the day. As the low-level jet increases
modestly throughout the day, resulting in midlevel theta-e
advection, showers will become possible. However, a stubborn dry
layer will be in place at low levels, so expect only
light spotty precipitation for much of the daylight hours. Given
the antecedent cold dry airmass, precipitation could begin as a
wintry mixture of rain and sleet for parts of the adirondacks
and catskills, but impacts are likely to be minimal given the
light precipitation expected. It may become a bit breezy in
favored locations within the hudson valley with channeled
south southeasterly flow. Could see some gusts around 30 mph.

Isentropic lift cranks up this evening into the overnight hours
as h850 winds increase to 50-65 kt ahead of the aforementioned
shortwave which will become neutrally tilted as it enters the
northeastern us. Pwats of around 1-1.25 inches are forecast to
advect into the local area. All sources of guidance are
indicating widespread coverage of showers overnight. H850
temperatures increase to around 5-7c. Some concern that temps in
the adirondacks will hover near the freezing mark after sunset,
which brings the specter of freezing rain in sheltered valleys.

Consensus does favor temps remaining at or above freezing and
rising especially by the end of the night. Included a slight
chance for freezing rain where the surface wetbulb temp was at
or below 32. Will continue to monitor this potential, but for
now it appears any freezing rain will be spotty and short lived.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
Fairly good consensus among deterministic models and gefs
members in tracking the strengthening surface low up the st.

Lawrence valley, with sea level pressures in the upper 970s by
the time it's in southeastern quebec by 00z Monday. The low will
drag a sharp cold front across the forecast area Sunday morning,
with the frontal position roughly situated across the hudson
valley at 12z Sunday. H850 temps are forecast to drop from
roughly 7c at 09z Sunday to -6c by 18z Sunday. The strong cold
advection and strong pressure gradient in the southwest quadrant
of the low leads to the concern for strong winds Sunday. Cstar
research has shown this particular low track to be favorable
for strong winds over portions of the forecast area. However,
h850 winds are not terribly strong at around 45 kt, and it is
questionable how deeply the boundary layer will mix given what
is likely to be a fairly generous coverage of clouds. In
coordination with neighboring offices, will forego any wind
headlines attm, given the uncertainty and the timing which will
still be in the 3rd forecast period (post 12z Sunday). Favored
locations for strong wind gusts exceeding 40 mph are higher
terrain above 1500 feet along with the mohawk valley and capital
district.

Steady rainfall will taper to showers behind the front Sunday.

With the influx of colder air, lingering precipitation will
mix with and change to snow through the day. With lake ontario
surface temps averaging around 10c, the lake should be activated
quickly behind the frontal passage. Accumulation of up to 2
inches is possible over the southern adirondacks and green
mountains Sunday. Parts of the western mohawk valley will likely
see some snowfall, but given warmer temps at lower elevations,
accumulation is relatively less likely during the daytime hours.

Overnight, surface to 850 mb delta-t increases to near 20c and
inversion heights rise to nearly 3 km agl per forecast soundings
at utica. Wind trajectories favor a band of snow with a possible
multi-lake connection from georgian bay and possibly lake
superior. Trajectories favor this band setting up across
portions of the western mohawk valley. Given favorable inland
extent parameters, the snow band may extend into portions of the
schoharie valley and possibly into the capital
district northern taconics berkshires. Around 1-3" of snow is
forecast for the western mohawk valley with generally less than
an inch elsewhere depending on where exactly the band sets up.

Long term Monday through Friday
Monday as colder air continues to move across the relatively warmer
waters of lakes ontario and erie. However as ridging builds in and
the low level flow backs the lake effect will shift from across
central new york, the western mohawk valley and eastern catskills
northward into the western and southern adirondacks as the day
progresses. Additionally short waves rotating about the upper low as
it lifts northeastward across eastern canada and upslope flow will
keep showers in the forecast most of the day especially along and
north of i-90. At this time looking at additional snow accumulations
1 to 3 inches for the western mohawk valley and western southern
adirondacks with less than an inch elsewhere. The shower activity is
expected to wind down during the evening hours as the ridge takes
hold at the surface and aloft.

Ridging should only briefly be over the region Monday night into
Tuesday as it's expected to weaken and shift eastward as short wave
dives out of central canada and digs a trough over the great lakes
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing another low pressure system
across the region. There are differences in the models handling
this short wave energy; it's amplitude, timing and possible
interactions between northern and southern system energy. Have
followed lead of the weather prediction center to maintain forecast
continuity which prefers a more flow separation. Please refer to
their extended forecast discussion for details (pmdepd). With this
said limited chances for snow and rain showers Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the main low expected to pass well to our north along
with limited moisture.

As for thanksgiving, expecting fair weather at this time for
Wednesday night through Friday with the region between systems.

Guidance indicates the weather should be unsettled for a least some
of the weekend.

With extensive cloud cover and cyclonic flow across the region
Monday below normal temperatures expected with brisk winds making it
only feel colder. Readings are expected to rebound Tuesday to normal
or a bit above with highs mainly in the 40s with sunshine and light
southerly winds. With the passage of a cold front a return to
seasonable temperatures Wednesday and with the passage of a
secondary boundary below normal for thanksgiving and Friday; however
winds should be rather light.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
As the ridge axis across the region weakens and shifts eastward
overnight into Saturday high and mid level clouds will stream in.

Clouds will thicken and quickly lower late in the day into the
evening as a strong low pressure system approaches from the west
and rain moves into and develops over the local area. Expecting
widespread MVFR by 00z and ifr developing by late evening as
clouds lower further and rain becomes steadier and heavier which
will continue through the overnight hours.

Winds will remain very light to calm overnight with a southerly
flow developing Saturday morning. Southerly winds will increase
to 6 to 10 knots by late morning early afternoon with gusts into
the teens at kalb as flow funnels up the hudson river valley. Winds
will remain southerly with a bit of a shift to the southwest and
will increase some in speed and gusts at kalb and kpsf buy
evening.

Outlook...

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Windy. Shra likely.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Breezy. Chance of
shra... Shsn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of
shra... Shsn.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of
shra... Shsn.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thanksgiving day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
A low pressure system will approach from the west today,
resulting in clouds and rain chances both increasing throughout
the day. Rain will be widespread overnight with temperatures
steady or increasing. A strong cold front will sweep across the
area Sunday morning, resulting in windy conditions and falling
temperatures. Precipitation will become less widespread and
begin to mix with snow over the higher terrain. Lake effect snow
will occur in favored regions Sunday night into Monday.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected on the main stem rivers
through the next week.

A strong low pressure system will approach from the great lakes
region today. Widespread rain will occur throughout the
forecast area mainly late this afternoon into tonight. A cold
front will sweep through Sunday morning with additional rain
changing to snow over the higher terrain. At this time, total
qpf from this system looks to range from a half inch to near an
inch, with isolated higher amounts over portions of the green
mountains.

A colder air mass will then build in Sunday night through early
next week, with some lake effect snow downwind of lake ontario
affecting the western adirondacks and mohawk schoharie valleys.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Iaa
aviation... Iaa
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Bgm thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 96 mi96 min S 1.9 25°F 1015 hPa17°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Springfield, Hartness State Springfield Airport, VT8 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair20°F17°F89%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from VSF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
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6NW5SE44Calm44S3Calm3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3NE3Calm4
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5Calm5S8S6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 04:42 AM EST     4.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:13 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:06 PM EST     5.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:46 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.31.52.73.64.34.43.93.12.41.60.6-0.10.31.534.155.55.24.33.32.41.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:34 AM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:03 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:58 PM EST     5.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:36 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.31.62.73.54.24.23.62.82.11.30.3-0.30.31.634.155.44.94320.9-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.