Saturday, August19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Chester, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:45PM Saturday August 19, 2017 2:28 PM EDT (18:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:26AMMoonset 6:23PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, VT
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location: 43.26, -72.62     debug

Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 191801
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
201 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

For this afternoon, partly sunny and mild conditions are expected.

An upper level trough will bing a threat of isolated showers and
thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening, especially
from the hudson river valley westward. Fair weather and seasonable
temperatures are forecast for Sunday and hot weather is expected
Monday and Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 107 pm edt... Water vapor loop shows upper level trough,
that extends from lake huron to western ohio to central
tennessee, moving slowly eastward. Some mid and high clouds from
this feature have now made it to krme and kbgm just on the
doorstep of our western zones. Most of the albany forecast area
is partly sunny with diurnal cumulus clouds billowing up.

Temperatures range from around 70 in the higher terrain to
the mid 80s in some valley locations.

Radar shows some very light showers over far northern herkimer
and hamilton counties. The next areas of showers are in far
western new york east to about rochester. These showers are
still a few hours away from our western zones so most of the
rest of the afternoon should be fair and mild across a good part
of the area.


the approaching short-wave looks to move close to the region
late this afternoon, and we increased the slight to low chc pops
for isolated-scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
latest nam12 has sbcapes generally 250-750 j kg with sfc dewpts
in the upper 50s to mid 60s despite some steepening of the mid-
level lapse rates. Expecting general thunderstorms with a
locally heavy downpour possible in a few spots. The instability
should be waning early this evening. Some retooling of the pops
was done with the latest 3-km NAM and hrrr trends.

Deep west flow will limit the low level convergence and mid and
upper moisture will be lacking for widespread coverage of the
showers t-storms. However, again, there may be enough low level
moisture and thermal forcing along the low level cold front to
support isolated showers and thunderstorms until about midnight.

It will breezy at times this afternoon which will support
decent mixing and highs in the lower to mid 80s in many areas,
70s in higher terrain.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday night
Any lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms will end late this
evening and the sky will become mostly clear. There could be
some patchy fog in some areas near water and swamps around
daybreak Sunday. Sunday looks dry and sunny with highs in the
80s and some 70s in higher terrain.

Some warm advection begins Monday and there should be good
viewing of the eclipse. Will the reduced sunlight during the
eclipse for the time period that is usually the peak Sun angle
of the day cause high temperatures to be a little cooler than
guidance? Well, 33% sunshine in our region at the time when we
are supposed to have peak heating during the mid afternoon might
modify the atmosphere a little. Still, highs maybe a degree or
two cooler than guidance, but still in the 80s many areas and
around 80 higher terrain. It will be interesting to see just how
the eclipse does affect the atmosphere over the entire u.S.

With varying percentages of the Sun on either side of the path
of the total eclipse.

A mostly clear sky is expected Monday night with slowly
increasing warm advection and low level moisture. Lows mainly in
the 60s with around 60 higher terrain.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
The long term portion of the forecast starts out with summer-like
warmth, as a ridge of high pressure moves off the mid atlantic
coast. Relatively high mid level heights and subsidence should allow
daytime highs to reach 85-90 for valleys, and 80-85 across higher
elevations Tuesday. An approaching cold front, combined with late
day mid upper-tropospheric height falls, and perhaps a pre-frontal
trough could spark some showers thunderstorms late Tuesday
afternoon, especially for areas north and west of the immediate
capital district. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong, as
mid level wind fields increase to 30-40 kt or stronger.

For Tuesday night-Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach
from the northwest. Both 00z 19 deterministic global models and
ensembles suggest that a wave develops along the incoming front,
somewhere across the eastern great lakes or western nys, before
strengthening and moving northeast into southern quebec. Model
consensus continues to favor a late night early morning frontal
passage. This would tend to decrease the overall threat for severe
weather with the main front, after any initial convection Tuesday
afternoon. So, have sided with consensus with best chances for
showers thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wed morning, then
decreasing chances Wednesday afternoon. However, changes to frontal
timing remain possible over the next few days as upper level
features and their evolution become better resolved within various
sources of guidance. It should be warm humid Tue night ahead of the
front, with lows mainly in the 60s, then highs Wednesday mainly in
the 70s to around 80 for valleys, and 60s to lower 70s across higher

Wednesday night-Friday, assuming the aforementioned cold front does
not slow down, high pressure is expected to build in from southern
canada and the great lakes region with cooler and less humid
conditions. There could be a few showers across mainly higher
elevations of the southern adirondacks southern vt Thursday due to
lingering cold air aloft and some mid upper level cyclonic flow.

Expect lows Wed night in the 50s, with some 40s possible for higher
elevations; highs Thursday and Friday mainly in the 70s for lower
elevations, and 60s across higher terrain. Even cooler temperatures
are expected for Thursday night, with lows in the 40s across higher
elevations, and lower mid 50s in valleys. It is even possible that
some sheltered areas of the southern adirondacks fall into the upper
30s by daybreak Friday.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
A secondary cold front and an upper level trough will move
across the region late this afternoon through early tonight.

High pressure will ridge in from the ohio valley tomorrow

Vfr conditions are forecasted prior to 06z Sun for
kgfl kalb kpou kpsf with sct-bkn cumulus and mid level clouds
around ahead of the cold front and upper level disturbance.

There is the possibility of some isolated to scattered showers
with the cold front and even a thunderstorm. We have placed a
vcsh group between 00z-03z for kalb kpsf kpou to account for the
low probabilities. In the wake of the front and upper trough
passage some patchy mist may form and even some low stratus
especially for kgfl kpsf btwn 07z-13z. We placed a window of ifr
mist and CIGS in the 1-2 kft agl range. We were not confident
for lower cigs. Kalb may also have some MVFR stratus form. We
have kept kpouVFR for now, but if any showers occur there, then
MVFR CIGS vsbys will be possible.

Cigs vsbys at all the TAF sites should rise quickly toVFR
levels after 13z with the sfc ridge building in and deeper
mixing occurring.

The winds will be southwest to west at 5-10 kts this afternoon,
and then will be light and variable at 4 kts or less tonight.

The winds will increase from the west to northwest at around 10
kts after 13z with some gusts in the 15-20 kt range at
kalb kpsf.


Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Today looks fair and breezy before a second cold front crosses
the area late this afternoon and tonight with just isolated
showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather and seasonable
temperatures are forecast for Sunday and a warm up is expected
Monday and Tuesday.

Rh values will be near 100 percent at night. Rh values will be
45 to 65 percent this afternoon and Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be west at 15 mph or less Saturday, but a few gusts
to 20 mph are possible during the afternoon. Winds diminish to
less than 15 mph tonight. Winds will be northwest at 15 mph or
less on Sunday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and tonight along a reinforcing cold front. Less
humid air will start to work its way into the region after the
cold front tracks through. Drier weather is expected Sunday into

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

While repairing the azimuthal gear box, radar technicians have
determined that the bull gear on kenx radar needs to be
replaced. This will require the radar to be out of service until
at least next Friday, august 25th.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd wasula
near term... Snd
short term... Nas
long term... Kl
aviation... Wasula
fire weather... Nas
hydrology... Nas

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 96 mi104 min W 1.9 76°F 1010 hPa70°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Springfield, Hartness State Springfield Airport, VT8 mi35 minW 510.00 miOvercast79°F61°F54%1009 hPa

Wind History from VSF (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3S7W6W5
1 day agoN7NW5N5CalmCalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW4NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 03:25 AM EDT     5.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:17 AM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:27 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Click for Map
Sat -- 03:17 AM EDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:07 AM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:50 PM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:17 PM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.