Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chester, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:08PM Friday March 24, 2017 2:03 AM EDT (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:52AMMoonset 3:24PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, VT
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location: 43.26, -72.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 240153
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
953 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
Tranquil weather will continue through most of the night as
high pressure gradually slides off to the east. Unsettled
conditions arrive Friday morning and will persist into the
upcoming weekend, with a wintry mix of precipitation expected.

Initially, the warm front tomorrow will bring a mix of snow,
sleet and freezing rain before transitioning over to rain by the
mid to late afternoon.

Near term /through Friday/
A winter weather advisory has been issued from 6 am to 2 pm
Friday for the eastern catskills, schoharie valley, mohawk
valley, greater capital region, northern and central taconics,
as well as the berkshires...

a winter weather advisory has been issued from 6 am to 4 pm
Friday for the southern adirondack region, lake george northern
saratoga region and southern vermont...

as of 953 pm edt... High level clouds are moving in from the
west late this evening. A 1034 hpa sfc anticyclone continues to
be over the northeast and mid atlantic region this evening, but
will shift eastward off the coast overnight. Cold and
exceptionally dry air mass in place with sfc dewpts in the
single digits to below zero. The 00z kalb sounding shows a
significant dry layer in the surface to 15 kft layer. The latest
ir/visible satellite loop shows a high clouds approaching from
western/northern ny, but overall the skies should be
clear/mainly clear for the next few hours with light to calm
winds. Temps should drop into the teens to lower 20s with a few
single digits over the southern adirondacks.

Mid and high clouds should begin to increase quickly from the south
and west overnight ahead of a warm front approaching from the
oh valley and the mid atlantic region. Min temps will likely
occur around or shortly before midnight, and then temps will
likely be steady or slowly climb towards daybreak in the warm
advection regime.

The thickening and lowering clouds with the strengthening isentropic
lift on the 285/290k surfaces will quickly allow the lower levels of
the atmosphere to saturate from the west/southwest to the
north/northeast across the region between 6-9 am with snow
overspreading the region. Our forecast favors the colder nam/srefs
with the threat of some light snow transitioning to sleet and likely
freezing rain. It will take some to erode the cold, subfreezing air
in place with the arctic high retreating offshore. The GFS thermal
profiles were slightly warmer in the late morning into the afternoon
than the nam. Multiple times this past winter, it took more time to
dislodge the shallow subfreezing air in place at the sfc. This event
it may take some time for the northern most zones into the mid
afternoon.

Critical partial thicknesses from both the NAM and the GFS kept some
elevated freezing rain in over the mountains into the mid afternoon
/the southern adirondack region... Southern greens and even the
eastern catskills/. Some sleet is possible in most locations. Our
confidence was greatest for a few hours /2-5 hours/ of freezing rain
from the eastern catskills, greater capital region, central
taconics, and berkshires northward. If the southerly winds kick in
quicker over the capital region, temps may surge above freezing
quickly. Before the sleet and freezing rain, we are expecting a few
tenths of an inch to an inch of snow/sleet in these areas. Further
north, bufkit nam/gfs model soundings indicate a period of snow with
some sleet is possible over the southern adirondack/lake george
region into southern vt. Utilizing 10:1 snow to liquid ratios, we
came up with 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet. The higher totals
over the dacks/greens. A coating/trace to tenth of an inch of ice
is also possible which was the reasoning for the wsw.

The warm front should lift through most of the region by the mid to
late afternoon with the pcpn leftover changing to a cold plain rain.

If the cold /below freezing/ air remains in place especially in the
sheltered valleys, then the advisories up north may need to be
extended. We blended the guidance and went closer to the colder
metmos temps with mid 30s to lower 40s across the region late in the
afternoon. The southerly winds should increase from the south at 10
to 15 mph with some gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range.

Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/
A very complex forecast in the short term involving periods of
a wintry mix and rain. The complexity of the forecast includes
positioning of frontal boundaries relative to the large ridge of
high pressure to the north. This will ultimately determine
precipitation type.

Starting on Friday night, a warm front will be lifting north
through the area as a cold front sinks south out of canada
towards the us/canadian border. High pressure southwest of james
bay will start to move southeast allowing for colder air to
start to drop southward from canada. Precipitation Friday night
should primarily be in the form of rain but this depends on how
quickly the cold air can start infiltrating the forecast area.

Lows Friday night will generally be in the 30s.

Saturday through Monday... Much of the precipitation will be
diurnally driven with mainly rain during the daytime hours and
mainly freezing rain during the overnight hours into early
morning hours as indicated by bufkit model soundings. The
frontal boundary will slowly sink south across the forecast area
throughout the day Saturday as high pressure pushes further
south into northern ny. The frontal boundary is expected to drop
more southward into the mid-atlantic region on Sunday as a wave
of low pressure over the midwest tracks northeast reaching the
eastern great lakes by Monday morning. The best chances for
freezing rain appears to be between around midnight and 10 am
both Sunday and Monday. While there is still uncertainties on
the location of the frontal boundary and precip type through
this period, there is the possibility of a tenth to a third of
an inch of ice accretion totals across a good portion of the
forecast area. Fortunately it does not look like temperatures
will be below freezing during the afternoons which will allow
what freezing rain which accretes to melt in most areas. Highs
on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 50s with
highs on Sunday in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Lows Saturday night
will be in the low 20s to mid 30s with lows Sunday night
generally in the 30s.

Long term /Monday through Thursday/
Unsettled weather will be prevalent for much of the period before
high pressure and drier air eventually moves into the region late in
the week.

The period starts out on Monday with a surface boundary still draped
across the region. It appears we will be on the cool side of the
boundary with a cold air damming (cad) signature evident on surface
pressure field on both gfs/ecmwf. Aloft, models in good agreement
with a progressive short wave trough moving eastward across the
area, so will mention likely pops. Most of the precip should be
rain, with temps aloft well above zero, although surface
temperatures may be cold enough for freezing rain across parts of
the southern adirondacks and southern green mountains in the morning.

As the short wave moves well east into new england Monday night,
rain should taper off to scattered showers. With a continued cad
signature noted, some light frozen precip may occur again late
Monday night into early Tuesday morning across parts of the dacks
and southern greens.

The next system then moves in for late Tuesday and especially
Tuesday night as a progressive open wave upper trough and associated
surface cyclone traverse the area. The GFS is depicting a deeper
upper trough and associated stronger surface cyclone with slower
evolution, while the ECMWF is weaker and more progressive. The gfs
solution also allows for possible secondary development near the new
england coast late Wednesday into Wednesday night. If the stronger
storm scenario evolves, there could be enough cold air produced for
rain/snow issues. Best chances for any snow would be Tuesday night
into Wednesday and across the higher terrain. A lot of uncertainty
exists for this period.

Drier and colder air looks to move during the Wednesday night into
Thursday time frame, as high pressure builds eastward across the
great lakes.

Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/
High pressure over eastern new york and new england this
evening will drift eastward and offshore tonight. A warm front
will approach from the south and west tonight and will bring a
wintry mix of precipitation to the region late Friday morning
into the afternoon, than changing to plain rain.

Clouds will increase tonight with CIGS gradually lowering
through the overnight hours.VFR conditions will prevail until
wintry precipitation arrives Friday morning after 12z.

Then, a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain with MVFR to ifr
conditions expected to develop during the morning hours at
kalb/kpsf/kgfl, with a rain/snow mix initially at kpou quickly
changing to rain by noon. The transition to plain rain will take
until early afternoon at kalb/kpsf, with kgfl likely taking the
longest into mid afternoon as is typically the case in these
types of situations with warm air aloft over-running cold air in
the low levels. Precip will then taper to scattered rain
showers by late afternoon with mainly MVFR conditions expected.

Winds tonight will be light and variable to calm, becoming
southerly around 10-15 kt by late Friday morning. Gusts of 20-25
kt will be possible from late morning through the afternoon
hours, especially at kalb/kpsf.

Outlook...

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Likely ra... Fzra... Dz... Fzdz.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra... Dz.

Sunday night: high operational impact. Likely ra.

Monday: high operational impact. Likely ra.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra.

Fire weather
A deep snow pack remains in place across much of eastern new
york and western new england. Temperatures will drop into the
teens and low 20s tonight before moderating into the low 40s
tomorrow. Unsettled weather arrives tomorrow morning,
continuing through the weekend, with the potential for a
a mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain.

Hydrology
No precipitation is expected through most of tonight, with
below normal temperatures expected. There is a potential for
several rounds of precipitation Friday into the upcoming week,
with a mix of rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet possible.

Temperatures look to be warm enough during the afternoon hours
each day that most of the precipitation should fall in the form
of rain before changing over to a wintry mix at night. While
there is still some uncertainty with precipitation types and
amounts, there is the potential for between three quarters of an
inch of rain up to an inch and a half Friday through Sunday
night. Latest mmefs forecast indicates a few locations going
into action stage by next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

Aly watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 2 pm edt Friday for
nyz038>040-047>054-058>061-063.

Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 4 pm edt Friday for
nyz032-033-041>043-082>084.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 2 pm edt Friday for
maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 4 pm edt Friday for
vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Jvm
near term... Jpv/wasula
short term... 11/jvm
long term... Jpv
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Kl/11/jvm/wasula
hydrology... Kl/11/jvm/wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 96 mi79 min Calm 24°F 1034 hPa11°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Springfield, Hartness State Springfield Airport, VT8 mi70 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds20°F8°F60%1033.6 hPa

Wind History from VSF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W9W5CalmW5W7W85W11
G16
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5NW8NW6NW4NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE65W5NW9
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G15
--CalmN34NW3NW3NW5
2 days agoCalmNE3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W346W14
G19
W10
G16
W12W4SW4CalmCalmW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Fri -- 02:56 AM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:40 AM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:25 PM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:13 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.144.54.84.43.52.72.11.60.90.71.63.14.35.15.65.64.83.72.821.10.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:48 AM EDT     4.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:29 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:17 PM EDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:03 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.13.94.44.64.13.22.41.91.30.60.71.73.14.35.15.55.44.53.42.51.70.80.30.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.