Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chester, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:26PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:57 AM EST (08:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:03PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, VT
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location: 43.26, -72.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 150605
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
105 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Unseasonably and potentially record cold temperatures are
expected tonight with high pressure taking control of the
region. We continue to closely monitor a low pressure system for
Thursday night into Friday which could bring both snow and ice
accumulations to the region.

Near term through today
As of 1015 pm est... Canopy of thin ci cs per satellite imagery
was streaming across the night sky across most of the cwa.

Temperatures and dewpoints continue to drop with portions of the
dacks into the single digits (kslk was -1f). Current
temperature forecast is in good shape. 00z NAM arrival as the
remainder of the overnight period will remain dry as those high
clouds continue to thicken with 1038mb high tracks and retreats
to our northeast toward sunrise.

Prev disc... Heading into tonight, high pressure builds in the
region which should help weaken the winds and lead to clearing
skies. Thus, expecting a very cold night thanks to near ideal
radiational cooling accompanied with very low dew points in the
single digits. Latest hi-res guidance shows only thin cirrus
across the region with the thicker clouds remaining well south
of our cwa. MOS guidance shows a few hours of clr in the latest
output for ddh, alb and gfl so continued the latest forecast
with lows in the single digits and teens throughout this area
with even some sub-zero readings in the adirondacks. Some more
clouds could linger in the mid- hudson valley to NW ct so still
thinking these spots may be a tad warmer in the teens to near
20. A quick look at record lows for nov 15 shows we could
challenge some records with these temperatures.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Friday
A winter storm watch is in effect from Thursday afternoon
to Friday morning for the entire albany county warning area...

we continue to monitor a very potent cut off shortwave trough
in the tn valley that looks to interact with a weak low coming
out of the gulf of mexico during the day Thursday. The cut off
low will provide increasing upper level divergence, allowing the
low to intensify as it heads up the east coast. A chilly air
mass remains in place over the northeast thanks to the 1035mb
high pressure over head. With increasing cloud coverage through
the day ahead of the approaching coastal low, high temperatures
Thursday likely will only each the upper 20s to near 32 over
the albany cwa.

By Thursday afternoon, the parent shortwave starts to
weaken open up allowing the the coastal low to become more
organized and the dominant feature as it reaches the mid-
atlantic. Very strong isentropic lift on the front end of the
approaching coastal storm along with an impressive 50 knot mid-
level jet means the approaching precipitation shield should
have no issues quickly overspreading the region from north to
south. Temperatures profiles support all snow at the onset with
surface temperatures likely dropping a few degrees to sub-
freezing readings as snow arrives due to wet bulb processes.

Model guidance continue to show this band being a transient type
band as discussed in previous cstar projects. With the strong
700-500mb fgen, this band could produce moderate to even heavy
snow including potential 1 inch + per hour rates as it quickly
travels from the mid- hudson valley up into the capital district
and areas northward Thursday afternoon into the evening. This
means potential impacts for the evening commute, mainly for the
mid- hudson valley and possibly for parts of the capital
district, depending on the exact speed of this initial band.

Guidance continues to show this band moving quickly through the
albany CWA Thursday evening as our coastal low continues to
deepen off the DELMARVA nj coast down to near 1000-995mb by 06z
Friday. Newest model runs have trended a bit further south with
the coastal low's track with it now progressing from the nj
coast eastward towards long island Thursday night. This means
that the aforementioned transient band could become more of a
pivot type band over the adirondacks western mohawk valley
allowing moderate snow to continue there with the warm sector
extending northward into the mid- hudson valley NW ct areas.

Still uncertain on the exact placement of this band as that will
be determined by the exact track of the coastal low. It's
important to note that the temperature profiles Thursday night
in nearly all areas of the albany CWA show a warm nose type of
signature around 800-700mb which would limit snow ratios to near 10
to 1, giving us a wetter type of snow with even sleet pellets
possible at times.

Once the warm sector moves into the mid-hudson valley NW ct and
the southern berkshires towards midnight Thursday, southern
areas may mix with and even become mainly sleet or freezing rain
with ice accretion possible. Including ice accretion impacts
for these areas in winter storm watch. Areas in this warm sector
could also see precipitation lighten up which many ensemble
members support. This could increase ice accretion amounts.

Our coastal low continues to strengthen overnight as it heads
into coastal southern new england deepening to 990-995mb and as
it exits, it should drag the pivot deformation band previously
discussed south and east through the albany cwa. This would
allow a period of moderate to even heavy snow to return to areas
that had turned lighter overnight as this bands moves through.

Impacts to the Friday morning commute are possible as this bands
tracks through the area Friday morning. However, it looks like
this band should move through rather quickly since our coastal
low quickly exits out to sea. Overall, storm total snowfall
ranges 4 to 8 inches from the capital district southern vt into
the adirondacks and mohawk valley with lower amounts ranging 2
to 4 inches in the mid-hudson valley NW ct and southern
berkshires due to more mixing and icing issues.

Most areas should an end to the steady snow by late a.M early
afternoon Friday from northwest to southeast with temperatures
Friday warming up into the mid to upper 30s. However, the lull
in precipitation behind the departing coastal low looks brief
as a weakening clipper looks to exit the great lakes into
southern canada bringing enhanced lake effect upslope driven
snow to the southern adirondacks, western mohawk valley and
perhaps the southern greens Friday evening into Friday night.

Overnight lows Friday should only drop a few degrees, remaining
in the upper low 30s for most spots (upper 20s for higher
elevations).

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
An unsettled and cool pattern setting up through the long term
period as the weekend will likely feature occasional cloud coverage
along with the threat for light snow or snow showers. While a
surface high will transverse the region, in the mid and upper levels
will feature a broad west-southwest flow with rather high h850-500
rh fields. The best chance for snow and mainly afternoon rain
showers will be downwind of the lake and west of the hudson at this
time. Precip amounts look to be rather light across those areas
that do get some precipitation due to the aforementioned surface
ridge and no strong low level forcing.

Short wave embedded within the long wave trough approaches the
central plains and midwest Sunday night into Monday. This should
bring about a weak surface wave to track close to the region with
the chance for some light snow. Again, weak features as precip
amounts look to be light but could cause travel issues into Monday
morning.

This wave tracks quickly east leaving behind a broad and moist
northwest flow regime with the threat for additional snow and rain
showers. However, thermal profiles per the global models are
trending colder into early next week so most of the precip outside
of lower valley locations should fall in the form of snow showers.

Temperatures throughout this period will continue below normal
thresholds with average highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and
20s (the warmest day looks to be Saturday with lower half of the
40s for valley locations).

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Thick cirrus shield will remain across the region overnight with
light and variable to calm winds with a surface high drifting
directly over the region. A coastal low has begun to develop
along the southeast coast. This low will rapid deepen Thursday
as it heads northeastward up the east coast and will bring
widespread wintry precipitation to the area. Snow will
overspread the area late in the day into the early evening with
conditions quickly dropping to ifr. It will remain cold enough
for all snow kgfl and kalb through 06z Friday. However, warmer
air is expected to work in with a changeover to sleet and
freezing rain expected at kpou and kpsf during the evening.

Light variable to calm winds overnight with a light easterly flow
developing Thursday. Winds will shift more northerly in the evening
as the coastal low approaches. Low level wind shear may be needed
for kpou and kpsf by Thursday evening however confidence is not
high enough to include in the tafs at this time.

Outlook...

Friday: high operational impact. Definite shra... Ra... Sn.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of sn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Fire weather
Unseasonably cold weather through tonight with lake effect snow
diminishing. A system will bring widespread wintry
precipitation to the region Thursday afternoon into Friday.

Hydrology
Mainly dry weather is expected through tonight aside from some
lingering lake effect snow. A low pressure system will bring
widespread wintry precipitation to the region Thursday afternoon
into Friday. The precipitation may become rain or freezing rain
especially from the capital district south Thursday night into
Friday morning. QPF ranges from around 0.60 to 1.30 inches, with
the heaviest amounts over the mid hudson valley, litchfield
county, and the berkshires where rivers are already running
high. Flooding on the main stem rivers is not expected, but some
urban and poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out due to the
saturated ground.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm watch from this afternoon through Friday
afternoon for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter storm watch from this afternoon through Friday
afternoon for nyz032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084.

Ma... Winter storm watch from this afternoon through Friday
afternoon for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter storm watch from this afternoon through Friday
afternoon for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Speciale
near term... Frugis bgm speciale
short term... Speciale
long term... Bgm
aviation... Cebulko
fire weather... Frugis
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 96 mi72 min W 5.1 20°F 9°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Springfield, Hartness State Springfield Airport, VT8 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair14°F10°F84%1037.6 hPa

Wind History from VSF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W53W43NW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SE8SE5W8S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 05:04 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:36 AM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:22 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:58 PM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.61.91.20.4-00.41.62.83.5443.52.621.61.10.60.71.7344.54.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 04:54 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:28 AM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:12 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 PM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.51.81.10.3-00.61.82.93.6443.42.51.91.510.50.81.93.24.14.64.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.