Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester, VT
May 18, 2024 7:08 AM EDT (11:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:20 AM Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 3:25 PM Moonset 3:08 AM |
FXUS61 KALY 181050 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 650 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level disturbance will bring clouds and some isolated to scattered showers to eastern New York and western New England today. High pressure will build in tonight with clearing skies and cool temperatures. High pressure at the surface and aloft will bring fair weather with above normal temperatures for Sunday and into the middle of next week with the next chance of showers or thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 650 AM EDT...A weakening mid and upper level trough is over southern Quebec, the eastern Great Lakes and west-central NY this morning. A sfc trough is focusing some light rain showers over the western and southern Adirondacks and the western Mohawk Valley this morning. A few hundredths have occurred at the NYS Mesonet sites in the western Mohawk Valley.
The moisture convergence will continue to be meager with the upper level trough and the sfc trough. We did keep low chances of showers west of the Hudson River Valley in the morning and slight chances along and to the east. The best nominal forcing looks like it will be west and southwest of the Capital Region.
It will be mostly cloudy/cloudy today and the showers will be more isolated in the afternoon...with a slightly better chance over the eastern Catskills and western New England higher terrain. Any rainfall will be light
Again
mainly cloudy and dry conditions are expected for most of the region.
Max temps will run near to slightly below normal with all the clouds and isolated/widely scattered showers around. Max temps were accepted close to a NAM MOS/ECM MOS blend with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valleys with upper 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain. The winds will be light and variable in direction at less than 10 mph.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Tonight...The isolated to scattered showers will end with the skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy, except across western New England. Some lingering clouds and light drizzle or spotty light showers may linger especially close to the CT River Valley with a 1020 hPa sfc anticyclone building in over eastern New England with the onshore flow due to the high (and also an oceanic Atlantic low) will likely keep the pesky clouds in place. Some patchy fog may also form. Lows fall off into the mid 40s to around 50F over the higher terrain and 50-55F in the valleys.
The 2nd half of the weekend will feature partly to mostly sunny conditions with a mid and upper level ridge folding into the region. Mid and upper level heights increase. H500 heights from the latest NAEFS are +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal over most of the region by late Sunday. H850 temps also nose above normal a standard deviation or two. Max temps will rise above normal in the mid to upper 70s in the Mohawk and Hudson River Valleys and 60s to lower 70s over the mtns and across most of western New England. The ridge will continue to build in from the lower MS River Valley/Midwest into the Northeast Sunday night. High pressure will build in from the OH Valley and PA with near ideal radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear-partly cloudy skies and light to calm winds with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Monday will begin with above normal temps with the ridge at the sfc and aloft. Max temps will increase to 10 degrees or so above normal with H850 temps +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. High temps will be in the 80-85F range in the valleys, and 70s over the mtns with partly to mostly sunny skies. Monday night will be milder than Sunday night with lows in the 50s to around 60F with mostly clear conditions and light winds.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Long term period begins at 12z Tuesday with upper ridging over the eastern US and high pressure located off the Mid Atlantic coast to our southeast. This will result in warm advection into our region.
850 mb temperatures will reach +15 to +17C, which will translate to high temperatures in the upper 70s for the high terrain and temperatures well into the 80s for the valleys. Therefore, Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the year so far for most of the region. Tuesday does not look too humid with dew points mainly in the 50s, so "feels like" temperatures are expected to be similar to the actual temperature, maxing out in the upper 80s. There may be a few more clouds around in the afternoon and evening especially north of I-90 as the ridge undergoes anticyclonic wave breaking and a weakening shortwave tracks along its northern periphery. However, lack of moisture and warm temperatures aloft should keep any showers or thunderstorms isolated in nature and limited mainly to the ADKs.
Tuesday night should also be mainly dry with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to around 60 for the high terrain to mid 60s for the valleys.
Wednesday and Thursday...By 12z Wednesday, a strong surface low will form over the middle of the country in association with deep upper troughing over the upper Midwest. The upper trough closes off and the tracks in tandem with the surface low through the Great Lakes region and into southeastern Canada during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, with the trailing cold front tracking through our region.
The exact timing of the cold front is still uncertain, but recent trends in guidance have been to delay the frontal passage until Wednesday night or Thursday. The timing of the front will influence the coverage of showers/storms. We will have to watch trends over the next several days, as a cold frontal passage that aligns with peak diurnal heating could result in some stronger thunderstorms.
Will include chance PoPs Wednesday evening through Thursday due to the timing uncertainty. With the cold front trending slower, Wednesday looks to be another warm day with highs similar to if not a couple degrees warmer than on Tuesday. Fortunately, dew points look to be mainly in the 50s to around 60 again so feel like temperatures are currently expected to once again top out in the upper 80s. Lows will me mainly in the 60s Wednesday night. Highs Thursday should be a few to several degrees cooler than Wednesday, with the warmest temperatures (mid 80s) south and east of the Capital District.
Thursday night through Saturday...We dry out as the cold front moves off to our east and we see northwesterly winds advecting cooler and drier air into the region. Friday should therefore be mostly dry.
Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s (terrain) to 70s (valleys) with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. Saturday, another low pressure system may track near the region, although some guidance keeps it and any associated showers to our south. Looking to days 8-14, the CPC is expecting near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12z Sunday...All sites seeing VFR conditions, which will prevail through at least this evening for most TAF sites. Radar shows a few showers that could move over GFL for the first hour or two of the TAF period so have included a tempo for MVFR vsby reductions with these showers. All other sites stay VFR through this morning with BKN to OVC mid and high clouds. A few isolated showers are expected this afternoon, mainly for the Hudson Valley TAF sites, so have included VCSH groups. Showers will be isolated in nature, but could result in brief MVFR vsby reductions if they move over one of the TAF sites.
Showers taper off this evening with some breaks in the clouds developing briefly, but clouds likely fill back in overnight. At ALB/GFL, VFR conditions should persist through at least the end of the TAF period. At POU and PSF, some MVFR stratus is expected to develop overnight tonight due to light easterly flow. Greatest chance for low stratus appears to be at PSF. If/when the low stratus develops, it will likely stick around until the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be at 5 kt or less through this morning, increasing to 5- 10 kt from the east this afternoon into early tonight. Some gusts to around 15 kt are expected at PSF this afternoon and evening. Winds become light and variable again tonight by 3z at ALB/GFL/POU and after 6z at PSF.
Outlook...
Sunday Night to Tue Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 650 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
An upper level disturbance will bring clouds and some isolated to scattered showers to eastern New York and western New England today. High pressure will build in tonight with clearing skies and cool temperatures. High pressure at the surface and aloft will bring fair weather with above normal temperatures for Sunday and into the middle of next week with the next chance of showers or thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 650 AM EDT...A weakening mid and upper level trough is over southern Quebec, the eastern Great Lakes and west-central NY this morning. A sfc trough is focusing some light rain showers over the western and southern Adirondacks and the western Mohawk Valley this morning. A few hundredths have occurred at the NYS Mesonet sites in the western Mohawk Valley.
The moisture convergence will continue to be meager with the upper level trough and the sfc trough. We did keep low chances of showers west of the Hudson River Valley in the morning and slight chances along and to the east. The best nominal forcing looks like it will be west and southwest of the Capital Region.
It will be mostly cloudy/cloudy today and the showers will be more isolated in the afternoon...with a slightly better chance over the eastern Catskills and western New England higher terrain. Any rainfall will be light
Again
mainly cloudy and dry conditions are expected for most of the region.
Max temps will run near to slightly below normal with all the clouds and isolated/widely scattered showers around. Max temps were accepted close to a NAM MOS/ECM MOS blend with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valleys with upper 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain. The winds will be light and variable in direction at less than 10 mph.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Tonight...The isolated to scattered showers will end with the skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy, except across western New England. Some lingering clouds and light drizzle or spotty light showers may linger especially close to the CT River Valley with a 1020 hPa sfc anticyclone building in over eastern New England with the onshore flow due to the high (and also an oceanic Atlantic low) will likely keep the pesky clouds in place. Some patchy fog may also form. Lows fall off into the mid 40s to around 50F over the higher terrain and 50-55F in the valleys.
The 2nd half of the weekend will feature partly to mostly sunny conditions with a mid and upper level ridge folding into the region. Mid and upper level heights increase. H500 heights from the latest NAEFS are +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal over most of the region by late Sunday. H850 temps also nose above normal a standard deviation or two. Max temps will rise above normal in the mid to upper 70s in the Mohawk and Hudson River Valleys and 60s to lower 70s over the mtns and across most of western New England. The ridge will continue to build in from the lower MS River Valley/Midwest into the Northeast Sunday night. High pressure will build in from the OH Valley and PA with near ideal radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear-partly cloudy skies and light to calm winds with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Monday will begin with above normal temps with the ridge at the sfc and aloft. Max temps will increase to 10 degrees or so above normal with H850 temps +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. High temps will be in the 80-85F range in the valleys, and 70s over the mtns with partly to mostly sunny skies. Monday night will be milder than Sunday night with lows in the 50s to around 60F with mostly clear conditions and light winds.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Long term period begins at 12z Tuesday with upper ridging over the eastern US and high pressure located off the Mid Atlantic coast to our southeast. This will result in warm advection into our region.
850 mb temperatures will reach +15 to +17C, which will translate to high temperatures in the upper 70s for the high terrain and temperatures well into the 80s for the valleys. Therefore, Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the year so far for most of the region. Tuesday does not look too humid with dew points mainly in the 50s, so "feels like" temperatures are expected to be similar to the actual temperature, maxing out in the upper 80s. There may be a few more clouds around in the afternoon and evening especially north of I-90 as the ridge undergoes anticyclonic wave breaking and a weakening shortwave tracks along its northern periphery. However, lack of moisture and warm temperatures aloft should keep any showers or thunderstorms isolated in nature and limited mainly to the ADKs.
Tuesday night should also be mainly dry with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to around 60 for the high terrain to mid 60s for the valleys.
Wednesday and Thursday...By 12z Wednesday, a strong surface low will form over the middle of the country in association with deep upper troughing over the upper Midwest. The upper trough closes off and the tracks in tandem with the surface low through the Great Lakes region and into southeastern Canada during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, with the trailing cold front tracking through our region.
The exact timing of the cold front is still uncertain, but recent trends in guidance have been to delay the frontal passage until Wednesday night or Thursday. The timing of the front will influence the coverage of showers/storms. We will have to watch trends over the next several days, as a cold frontal passage that aligns with peak diurnal heating could result in some stronger thunderstorms.
Will include chance PoPs Wednesday evening through Thursday due to the timing uncertainty. With the cold front trending slower, Wednesday looks to be another warm day with highs similar to if not a couple degrees warmer than on Tuesday. Fortunately, dew points look to be mainly in the 50s to around 60 again so feel like temperatures are currently expected to once again top out in the upper 80s. Lows will me mainly in the 60s Wednesday night. Highs Thursday should be a few to several degrees cooler than Wednesday, with the warmest temperatures (mid 80s) south and east of the Capital District.
Thursday night through Saturday...We dry out as the cold front moves off to our east and we see northwesterly winds advecting cooler and drier air into the region. Friday should therefore be mostly dry.
Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s (terrain) to 70s (valleys) with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. Saturday, another low pressure system may track near the region, although some guidance keeps it and any associated showers to our south. Looking to days 8-14, the CPC is expecting near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12z Sunday...All sites seeing VFR conditions, which will prevail through at least this evening for most TAF sites. Radar shows a few showers that could move over GFL for the first hour or two of the TAF period so have included a tempo for MVFR vsby reductions with these showers. All other sites stay VFR through this morning with BKN to OVC mid and high clouds. A few isolated showers are expected this afternoon, mainly for the Hudson Valley TAF sites, so have included VCSH groups. Showers will be isolated in nature, but could result in brief MVFR vsby reductions if they move over one of the TAF sites.
Showers taper off this evening with some breaks in the clouds developing briefly, but clouds likely fill back in overnight. At ALB/GFL, VFR conditions should persist through at least the end of the TAF period. At POU and PSF, some MVFR stratus is expected to develop overnight tonight due to light easterly flow. Greatest chance for low stratus appears to be at PSF. If/when the low stratus develops, it will likely stick around until the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be at 5 kt or less through this morning, increasing to 5- 10 kt from the east this afternoon into early tonight. Some gusts to around 15 kt are expected at PSF this afternoon and evening. Winds become light and variable again tonight by 3z at ALB/GFL/POU and after 6z at PSF.
Outlook...
Sunday Night to Tue Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KVSF HARTNESS STATE (SPRINGFIELD),VT | 8 sm | 14 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 52°F | 82% | 30.05 |
Troy
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:08 AM EDT 4.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EDT 0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:16 PM EDT 4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:28 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT 0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:08 AM EDT 4.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EDT 0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:16 PM EDT 4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:28 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT 0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.6 |
| 1 am |
| 4.3 |
| 2 am |
| 4.7 |
| 3 am |
| 4.5 |
| 4 am |
| 3.8 |
| 5 am |
| 3.2 |
| 6 am |
| 2.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 2.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 3 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:00 AM EDT 4.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM EDT 0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM EDT 4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:54 PM EDT 0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:00 AM EDT 4.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM EDT 0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM EDT 4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:54 PM EDT 0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.7 |
| 1 am |
| 4.4 |
| 2 am |
| 4.7 |
| 3 am |
| 4.4 |
| 4 am |
| 3.7 |
| 5 am |
| 3.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Burlington, VT,
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