Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 12:31 AM   Moonset 8:49 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1022 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .
This afternoon - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Becoming partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east less than 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday night - Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - West winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 300006 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 806 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will cross Lower Michigan tonight before slowly making its way across our forecast area on Tuesday. This will end our period of fair weather...as showers will become increasingly common along with the risk for a few thunderstorms. Dry weather associated with weak high pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
There remains a large temperature contrast across the forecast area this evening with mid 50s across the Saint Lawrence Valley to the mid 70s toward the NY/PA line. This is all owed to a stalled frontal boundary currently draped across the region.

As for the dynamics supporting the above, a strong mid level ridge remains centered over the region through this evening. This has suppressed any convection across the western counties that would have normally formed with a stalled surface frontal boundary over the Southern Tier and upper Genesee Valley within a diurnally destabilized airmass. Thus, have a dry forecast through at least the early evening hours before cold front starts to approach from the northwest tonight.

Tonight...a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and southern Ontario. This in turn will help to ease the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary back towards Lake Ontario. The lift generated from this feature will keep showers in play east of Lake Ontario...and after midnight we will also have to start watching to our northwest where showers and storms associated with the approaching cold front will be targeting our region.

On Tuesday...a wavy cold front will slowly work across our forecast area. This will nearly GUARANTEE that Tuesday will be quite unsettled with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Basin average QPF should not exceed a quarter inch...although localized amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger convection
Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected pcpn
Tuesday will remain mild and relatively humid.

The showers will taper off from west to east late Tuesday and Tuesday evening...as the cold front will exit via New England. While the showers will move east overnight...clouds will be slow to clear.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A warm front will quickly track through the Lower Lakes with little fan fair (lack of moisture) Wednesday with dry weather and mild conditions. Highs will range from the 60s east of Lake Ontario to low/mid 70s elsewhere. A weak cold front passes through Wednesday night but again lacks any support or moisture, so dry conditions will likely continue. This same front then returns north on Thursday but will likely not bring any showers to the region. Weak high pressure will be in place Thursday night which will maintain dry conditions through the end of this period. Temperatures will remain above normal Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s, cooler near the lakes.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A mid-level ridge will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Friday. Plenty of moisture and warm air advection will move into the forecast area through Friday night. There is a low to medium chance for showers with the greatest chance during the afternoon hours on Friday. Model packages show the potential for two cold fronts to move across the region this weekend. Confidence is low on the timing of these cold fronts and therefore there are low to medium chances for showers Saturday through Sunday night. Temperatures will remain above normal Friday through the start of the next work week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions with ceilings above 5k feet are present across western and north central NY early this evening. A stationary front lies across western NY with a light northeast flow on the north side of the front. The front will move north tonight with clouds and showers developing from the Finger Lakes region northward. Showers are likely east of Lake Ontario the second half of the night, however flight conditions should remain MVFR/VFR. To the west, a cold front extends from Lower Michigan to Indiana with numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of it. This front will approach the region tonight, however most of the showers will remain northwest of the region. Some showers may brush KIAG and KBUF the second half of the night but confidence is low. Ceilings will lower from the west tonight with MVFR/IFR conditions across most of the region by daybreak Tuesday. The cold front will move across the entire region Tuesday with steady, light to moderate showers moving west to east through the day. Flight conditions will remain IFR or lower through Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Fresh east to northeast winds have resulted in choppy conditions as expected along the western south shores of Lake Ontario where Small Craft headlines remain in place through this evening. Winds will diminish tonight.

Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few days.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.

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