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Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome. 10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name. |
| Sunrise 7:01AM | Sunset 4:48PM | Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:19 PM EST (20:19 UTC) | Moonrise 12:50PM | Moonset 10:48PM | Illumination 42% |  |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 631 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely early, then a chance of lake effect snow showers from late morning on. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 10 knots or less. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 5 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow with rain likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Saturday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely early, then a chance of lake effect snow showers from late morning on. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 10 knots or less. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 5 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow with rain likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Saturday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201811141600;;288617
FZUS51 KBUF 141135
NSHBUF
Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
631 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018
For waters within five nautical miles of shore
Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
LOZ043-044-141600-
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irondequoit, NY
Hourly EDIT Helplocation: 43.27, -77.6 debug
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition| Fxus61 kbuf 141948 afdbuf area forecast discussion national weather service buffalo ny 248 pm est Wed nov 14 2018 Synopsis Lake effect snow showers will continue downwind of lake erie and lake ontario this afternoon. Snow showers will end this evening as an area of high pressure moves into the northeast tonight. The next system will begin to impact the region Thursday afternoon and last through Friday. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will expected before changing to all snow by Friday morning. Ice and snow accumulations are likely. Near term until 6 am Thursday morning Scattered lake effect and upslope snow showers are ongoing across much of western ny as cold, northwest flow continues to move over the eastern great lakes. This cold airmass continues to provide lake induced instability downwind of the lakes with 850mb temperatures around -15c. High pressure centered over southern michigan will continue to move east, lowering inversion heights and suppressing snow showers. Northwest winds will veer into this evening becoming northerly and any snow showers will become isolated and move into the genesee valley and western finger lakes. Localized snowfall accumulation of up to an inch is expected through the afternoon. High pressure moves overhead this evening and into southern quebec and northern new england Thursday morning. Besides some isolated snow showers late tonight, dry and cold conditions are expected overnight. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to low 20s, except the low teens at higher elevations east of lake ontario. Warm air advection begins aloft overnight and although it will be moistly dry, cloudy conditions are expected into Thursday. Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday night Isentropic ascent centered in the 290-300k layer increases rapidly during the afternoon on Thursday. This is in advance of a warm push aloft commiserate with the filling inland low that will be moving northward west of the allegheny front. A secluded bubble of warm air aloft has been well depicted on several successive runs of guidance that penetrates up into the southern tier of new york with fairly good run-to-run continuity. Some higher resolution guidance further advances this elevated warm bubble toward buffalo and rochester, as well. With this in mind, precipitation type becomes the biggest ball of wax to deal with Thursday afternoon and evening as the column saturates and lifting increases. Warm air aloft looks to get eroded by dynamical cooling as well as cold air impinging from the the west as the coastal low gradually takes over into Thursday night. This will allow for the secluded bubble to erode as it advances eastward toward the northern finger lakes such that it eventually becomes nonexistent. Before that juncture, however, strong moisture transport in the lifted layer means several hours of potential mixed precipitation in the southern tier, south towns, and southern half of the rochester area. Farther north, with less certainty on the warm layer persisting, the forecast was trended more strongly toward snow sleet as the gfs ECMWF both favor colder profiles, even though higher resolution guidance does not. Regardless of the profiles followed, this does not look like a very efficient snow maker in terms of snow-to-liquid ratios. While lift is strong in the 290-300k layer and does bisect the dendritic growth layer, substantial riming below that layer will cut back on ratios. With that in mind, slrs were capped at about 10:1 and greatly reduced south of the thruway due to the influence of warm air aloft and sleet freezing rain mixing into the frozen precipitation spectrum. Regardless, in areas were it remains all snow, a solid advisory snow seems likely, and in areas where it doesn't, advisories will be necessary for icing. The only place this isn't the case looks to be niagara county, which several successive runs have shown to be just a tad outside of the northwest fringe of the action from this system. As the coastal low intensifies on late Thursday night early Friday and moves northeast along the coast, a period of enhancement from the apex of the trowal airstream may allow for a secondary maxima in snowfall from allegany county toward lewis county. This would help to enhance snowfall amounts there even in the areas that are likely to see snowfall reduced Thursday evening because of mixed precipitation. This is the biggest piece of uncertainty in the forecast. Should these areas remain all snow earlier, it would be likely that winter storm warnings would be necessary. Otherwise, drier air in the dendritic layer starts to advect into the area from the west on Friday. This will allow for a tapering off of snow into drizzle or freezing drizzle through the late morning and early afternoon hours. As cold air takes its sweet time advancing into the area, the boundary layer does not look likely to cool off enough behind the system on Friday to make this be a persistent affair. |
The next system to affect the area advances eastward on Saturday. This will bring a round of lake enhanced snow showers and much colder drier air behind it. Temperatures will really take a nosedive Saturday night with persistence of this pattern into the long term period. Long term Sunday through Tuesday Broad upper level troughing will continue to dominate the great lakes and northeastern states in the extended portion of the forecast... resulting in a certainty of continued well below normal temperatures. Speaking more specifically... We can expect daily highs to mostly be in the 30s... While nightly lows range from the upper teens lower 20s across the north country to the mid and upper 20s elsewhere. Such readings will be more typical of mid-winter than the middle of november. While below average temperatures remain a virtual lock in the long term... The models have rather markedly diverged away from yesterday's modest agreement on the path... Timing... And strength of any migratory surface troughs that might affect our region during this time frame... and by extension the orientation and strength of the resultant low level wind field across our region at any given point. As such... forecast confidence in the timing placement of both synoptically- driven and lake-driven precipitation has significantly decreased... and have therefore had to transition to the use of broadbrush chance pops for the bulk of this period. Given current forecast temperatures... the bulk of any precipitation will likely fall in the form of snow. Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday Lake effect and upslope snow showers continue across western ny this afternoon.VFR conditions are expected at the terminals as snow showers move further inland. Snow will taper off into this evening as high pressure moves overhead. Attention moves to the next storm system that spreads wintry precipitation across the terminals beginning as early as Thursday afternoon. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is likely across the W southern tier including kjhw Thursday afternoon. This will spread northward to the lake plains including kiag, kbuf and kroc by Thu evening. A wintry mix will transition to all snow by Friday morning. Reduced CIGS and vsbys are expected Thursday through Friday resulting in a high impact aviation period. Outlook... Thursday night and Friday... MVFR ifr possible in wintry mix of sleet and snow. Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible east of both lakes in lake rain and or snow. Monday... MVFR ifr with a chance of snow showers. Marine A northwest wind will continue to diminish this afternoon. Waves will follow suit by this evening bringing an end to small craft advisory conditions. Another coastal low will bring the next wintry mix potential Thursday afternoon into Friday. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is expected before changing to all snow by Friday morning. The strongest winds will remain off shore through Thursday night. Westerly winds increase Friday and small craft conditions will return for the end of the work week and into the weekend. Buf watches warnings advisories Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm Thursday to 1 pm est Friday for nyz004>008. Winter weather advisory from 4 pm Thursday to 11 am est Friday for nyz002-003-010-011. Winter weather advisory from 1 pm Thursday to 11 am est Friday for nyz012>014-019>021-085. Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez040- 041. Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for loz042. Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for loz043>045. Synopsis... Apffel near term... Hsk short term... Fries long term... Jjr aviation... Hsk marine... Hsk |
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | Pressure | DewPt |
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 0 mi | 20 min | WNW 8.9 G 12 | 31°F | ||||
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 1 mi | 38 min | 31°F | |||||
| 45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY | 26 mi | 30 min | NW 16 G 19 | 30°F | 46°F | 3 ft | 1033.9 hPa (+0.6) | |
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 59 mi | 32 min | NW 7 G 11 |
Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off) Help| 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | |
| Last 24hr | NW G22 | NW G21 | NW G16 | NW G19 | NW G20 | NW G16 | NW G21 | NW G23 | NW G34 | NW G33 | NW G39 | NW G29 | NW G26 | NW G24 | NW G21 | NW G20 | NW G17 | NW G20 | NW G17 | NW G14 | NW G12 | NW G22 | NW G13 | NW G14 |
| 1 day ago | SE | SE | E | SE | S | SE G8 | S G16 | SW G11 | S G11 | S G13 | SW G12 | SW | S G8 | S G11 | S G11 | S G10 | S | S G11 | SW G11 | NW G11 | W | NW G30 | NW | |
| 2 days ago | NE | E | SE G7 | SE G8 | S G13 | S G12 | S G13 | S G12 | S G13 | S G11 | S G9 | S G10 | S G12 | S G11 | S G12 | S G10 | S G11 | S G12 | SW G13 | S G13 | S G15 | SW G13 | S G14 | S G6 |
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY | 11 mi | 26 min | NW 9 | 10.00 mi | Mostly Cloudy | 33°F | 19°F | 58% | 1034.4 hPa |
Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
| 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | 3 PM | |
| Last 24hr | N G20 | NW G17 | NW | W | W | W | W | NW | W | W G19 | W G19 | W G23 | NW | N | NW | N | N | NW | N | NW | W | W | NW | |
| 1 day ago | SW | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | Calm | S | SW | S | SW | S | SW | SW | SW | Calm | SW | SW | SW | W | W | W | NW | NW | N |
| 2 days ago | SW | W | SW | Calm | S | Calm | S | Calm | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | W | SW |
Tide / Current Tables for
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program. |