Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 1:44 PM   Moonset 2:11 AM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 936 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers early this afternoon. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - East winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 171824 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 224 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A trough of low pressure will slowly cross the area today and tonight bringing a soaking rainfall to much of the region along with the chance for a few thunderstorms. A few showers may linger into Saturday before high pressure then builds across the area Sunday bringing a dry finish to the weekend. Above normal temperatures will continue for the end of the work week into this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
An upper level ridge has become amplified along the seaboard due to a closed low over the Atlantic and an approaching trough over the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon. Within the trough, a weak shortwave trough is moving across Lower Michigan. Deep moisture is being funneled northward across the Ohio Valley into western NY this afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows a tongue of this deeper moisture moving into western NY with PWATS around 1.2 inches. This is about 0.2 inches higher than the 12z KBUF RAOB this morning. Widespread showers will continue to make a slow progression across western NY this afternoon. Showers will likely hold off across central and north central NY until this evening. Upper level winds are on the weaker side making for slow moving showers this afternoon.
Subsequently, shear is less than 15kts. The earlier sunshine helped destabilize western NY and mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg across the region this afternoon. There is a low chance of thunderstorms across far western NY this afternoon. While the severe chance is very low, thunderstorms will be capable of heavy downpours. SPC HRRR is showing medium probabilities of rainfall amounts of greater than an inch in three hours across the Niagara Frontier. The threat for flooding is low because of 25kts at 850mb-300mb mean flow.

The area of showers and thunderstorms will move into the Finger Lakes region and central NY this evening. A strong surface ridge along the east coast will halt forward progression and lead to weakening of showers and any storms tonight. Low-level moisture will remain pooled across the region overnight and patchy fog is likely across western NY. If clouds decide to clear overnight, fog could become more widespread and dense in some locations. Mild tonight with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Little change in MSLP Saturday. Surface high pressure remains along the east coast with variable winds across the forecast area. Ridging will build into the forecast area as the shortwave trough moves into the Capitol Region Saturday. Daytime heating and low level moisture will likely lead to diurnal showers and an isolated thunderstorm, mainly across interior western NY or along a lake breeze boundary.
Highs will reach the low to mid 70s. Saturday night will begin a period of dry and warm weather across western and north central NY.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Little change in MSLP Saturday. Surface high pressure remains along the east coast with variable winds across the forecast area. Ridging will build into the forecast area as the shortwave trough moves into the Capitol Region Saturday. Daytime heating and low level moisture will likely lead to diurnal showers and an isolated thunderstorm, mainly across interior western NY or along a lake breeze boundary.
Highs will reach the low to mid 70s.

Saturday night will begin a period of dry and warm weather across western and north central NY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A high amplitude upper level ridge will be entrenched along the spine of the Appalachians and into New England to start the period.
With the ridge axis centered along the eastern side of the CWA, the surface high pressure center itself will slowly wander from being centered over the western end of Lake Erie on Monday toward the east coast on Tuesday. As a result of the gradual progression, weak southerly (or even southeasterly) flow on Monday afternoon will to a stronger southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the eastward slumping of the surface ridge and increasing momentum off the deck from Monday through Wednesday, surface to 850 hPa mixing should increase and allow for strong afternoon run ups in temperatures with interior sections from the Genesee Valley eastward easily jumping into the mid 80s while even most of the lakeshores approach 80F during this interlude as select guidance has 850 hPa temperatures running up to +16 to +18C. The only places in the CWA that may reach their thermal apex on Monday rather than Tuesday or Wednesday seem to be the Niagara Frontier and the Watertown areas, where the south/southeasterly flow would keep any lake-influenced air out of the picture. With stronger southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday, these areas may hold back a few degrees relative to their more interior peer locations.

While all will seem bright and sultry early next week, don't dare be fooled that summer is here as things go way off the tracks shortly thereafter. A massive pattern shift looks to be in store for the second half of next week. The semi-resident ridge will slide off the east coast with an upstream closed 500 hPa low ever-so-slowly ejecting from the Rockies toward the upper Great Lakes. Several successive short-wave troughs with associated reinforcing shots of cooler air will push through the region beyond Wednesday as a result. This will lead to steadily increasing chances of showers with temperatures falling back substantially from where we will have been by that juncture. In fact, while the forecast features a consensus of wildly disparate guidance numbers by the end of next week and the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend, there are several fairly reliable pieces of guidance in the mix that would suggest some drastically colder conditions will be in the mix by that time. Evidence of this can be gleaned from the +4C at 850 hPa on the ECMWF and +3C on the Canadian global by Sunday, as well as the -3C on the GFS Friday morning. While each of these numbers by themselves doesn't mean a whole lot, when we approach the Friday through Sunday period as a whole, it would certainly tend to lean toward the belief that a portion of it is likely to be significantly colder than we have been accustomed to.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weather conditions will be impactful for aviation across western NY this afternoon through Saturday morning. A surface ridge will maintain VFR and mostly dry conditions east of Lake Ontario including KART during this period.

An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move into western NY this afternoon. As of 2PM, thunderstorms are currently close to KGVQ, between KBUF and KROC. A moist airmass will result in heavy downpours and result in MVFR/IFR conditions across western NY.
At this time, confidence is low to add TS into any TAF but will amend if needed. Flight conditions will likely fluctuate through this evening as showers continue and moisture begins to pool at the surface. Overall, flight conditions will become IFR/LIFR overnight across western NY. Fog is a concern especially for locations where clouds clear out overnight. As previously stated, VFR conditions will persist east of Lake Ontario including KART overnight.

Flight conditions will slowly improve Saturday morning and IFR conditions may persist until late morning. Showers will develop away from the lakeshores but also along lake breeze boundaries. This may impact the TAF sites across western NY. Mostly dry and VFR conditions will continue at KART.

Outlook...

Saturday...Areas of MVFR with a chance for showers. Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. An isolated shower Tuesday on Lake Erie lake breeze.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR possible. There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will continue the generally light winds through this weekend into the start of next week. A light offshore southeasterly flow will increase some today as a weak trough of low pressure slowly crosses the Lake. Following the passage of the weak system, winds will remain light through Tuesday. The next system will be a stronger cold front that will cross the Lake toward mid week bringing the next notable increase in winds and waves.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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