Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:05PM Friday August 18, 2017 11:46 PM EDT (03:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:40AMMoonset 4:48PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1039 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening... Then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201708182115;;574719 FZUS51 KBUF 181439 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1039 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-182115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
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location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 190222
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1022 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
Cooler air will flow across the region tonight, with a few showers
possible late tonight east of lake ontario. Saturday will
feature a mainly dry day though another passing upper level
disturbance will bring a chance for more showers and
thunderstorms, again mainly inland from the lakes. High pressure
will bring fair weather Sunday and Monday before another low
pressure system brings showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Near term through Saturday
For tonight and behind a cold front, cooler air is flowing
across the region, with 850 hpa temperatures dropping to around
10 to 12c over lake ontario. These temperatures combined with
weak surface troughing may generate a few lake enhanced rain
showers late tonight and into the early daylight hours of
Saturday. It does not get as cool over lake erie, though a stray
sprinkle or shower cannot be ruled out here. Otherwise the
night should be fairly dry behind the cold front. Since the air
is still has a touch of a muggy feel, our overnight lows will
remain in the low to mid 60s... With some areas of fog possible
across the so. Tier.

Saturday will look similar to today, albeit with more cloud cover
hanging around, as a robust upper level trough crosses the lower
great lakes. While areas northeast of the lakes should once again
remain lake shadowed, the synoptic lift from the trough should
encourage the formation of scattered showers and thunderstorms
inland from lake breeze boundaries Saturday afternoon. Any
convection should move rapidly off to the east late in the day,
carried by the brisk westerly upper level flow. Temperatures will be
a little more mild, as nominally cooler drier air will be in place
across the region, with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s.

Short term Saturday night through Tuesday night
On Saturday evening model consensus placed the axis of a 500 mb
trough across western new york, with trough exiting into new england
Saturday night. Meanwhile, a cold front will drop southward across
the area. The combination of the shortwave and front will result in
a few showers, which may also be enhanced modestly by lake
moisture instability and upsloping. Scattered showers south and east
of the lakes Saturday evening will shift to the eastern lake ontario
region late Saturday night before ending by daybreak Sunday.

Otherwise, lows Saturday night will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

The coolest temperatures will be across the southern tier valleys
where patchy river valley fog can be expected.

A broad surface high will build in across the upper ohio valley
Sunday and then gradually move to the mid-atlantic region through
Tuesday. This will bring an extended period of dry weather, with a
gradual warming trend through mid-week. Highs Sunday will be
seasonable, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, then warming
well into the 80s in nearly all locations by Tuesday. High pressure
will also provide mainly clear skies Sunday into Monday, which
should provide favorable conditions for viewing the eclipse on
Monday.

A strong shortwave is forecast to dive into the great lakes region
with low pressure forecast to strengthen as it tracks from eastern
michigan to southern quebec Tuesday. Model guidance is in fairly
good agreement, with a brisk southwesterly flow likely to result in
lake shadows which will keep much of the daytime hours dry. A strong
associated cold front will approach late Tuesday afternoon and move
across the region Tuesday night. A significant line of showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead of this front and move across the
area Tuesday night. Although a ways off, there is a risk of strong
to severe thunderstorms with strong wind profiles supportive of
damaging wind gusts. Severe weather potential is still uncertain,
and may change based on the timing of the front.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
Less humid conditions are expected work into the region in wake of
Tuesday nights cold front, as high pressure builds down from
southern central canada into the great lakes region. Although
conditions will trend drier during the period it will be
noticeable cooler with temperatures averaging some 5 to 10
degrees cooler than normal, with high temperatures both Thursday
and Friday in the 60s to lower 70s.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
MVFRVFR flight conditions will be prevalent this TAF cycle, except
for across the so. Tier where some late night fog with ifr flight
conditions will be possible, and east of lake ontario where some
ifr MVFR flight conditions will be possible in the early morning
hours of Saturday.

For the fog, the air will remain a bit moist still tonight as
dewpoints will remain moderately high... And as we cool tonight some
river valley fog and general area fog will be possible across the
so. Tier. This will include the kjhw terminal. Visibilities within
the fog will be ifr or lower.

East of lake ontario cooler air flowing over lake ontario on a
westerly wind may generate a few lake enhanced clouds... With a
passing shower also possible. Clouds are expected to have a deck in
the low MVFR range... Including across the kart airfield. Some patchy
ifr flight conditions cannot be ruled out... Especially over the
higher terrain of the tug hill.

Elsewhere it should remain quiet tonight withVFR and MVFR ceilings.

Tomorrow through the afternoon hours additional showers and
thunderstorms are likely to form, mainly inland and along lake
breezes. Greatest threat at this time appears to be the southern
tier where a tsra mention will be in the tafs.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR
Sunday and Monday...VFR except for late night and early morning
valley fog with local ifr.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the day.

Tuesday night... MVFR ifr, with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers.

Marine
Have dropped the small craft advisory for the niagara river as
winds have come down this late evening. Waves are still 5 foot
on the eastern end of lake erie, and the SCA here will
continue... Though diminishing winds should bring lower wave
heights over the next few hours.

High pressure will move across the lakes Saturday night into
Sunday, resulting in more favorable boating conditions for the
second half of the weekend into Monday. Southwesterly winds will
freshen once more Tuesday night, ahead of another approaching
low pressure system.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Saturday for lez040-041.

Synopsis... Thomas wood
near term... Thomas wood
short term... Apffel
long term... Tma
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi47 min SW 6 G 8 74°F 1008.4 hPa (+1.9)65°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 33 mi47 min W 18 G 21 73°F 72°F4 ft1007.2 hPa (+1.5)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 42 mi57 min WSW 14 G 18 73°F 72°F3 ft1007.5 hPa (+1.5)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi47 min WSW 8 G 13 75°F 1009.1 hPa (+1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi47 min 74°F 1008.6 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY17 mi53 minSSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F64°F81%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4543S6S7SW4S5S5SW8SW9SW9SW11SW9SW5S94S7NW9W9W8W5W3SW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3SE3CalmCalmE355SE6S6Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalm4SE3SE4
2 days agoSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6N6NE6NE4CalmN4NW8NW7N5NW8NW95N10N3CalmCalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.