Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 10:26 PM   Moonset 6:10 AM

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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1012 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Overnight - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Sunday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 261017 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 617 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
Canadian high pressure centered over eastern New York and western New England will slide east to the New England coastline today...and will provide us with a fine spring day to close out the work week.
After a chilly start...temperatures will quickly rebound into the upper 50s and 60s as a return flow of milder air develops around the departing high. The warming trend will then continue over the weekend and into early next week...resulting in late spring to summerlike warmth engulfing our region both Sunday and Monday. While there will also be a few showers and thunderstorms around, particularly during Saturday, a fair amount of dry time can also be expected. A cold front will then bring our next chance for more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms as it crosses our region Monday night and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Sprawling Canadian high pressure centered over eastern New York and western New England will drift further east to the New England coastline today...while keeping fair dry weather intact across our region
While there could be some thin/spotty high clouds
as well as very some limited afternoon diurnal cumulus across far western New York...these will not mar what will again be abundant amounts of sunshine. With a return flow of milder air setting up on the backside of the departing high...temps will rebound rather nicely after a chilly start...with highs climbing back to the upper 50s across the North Country and to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere.
This said...an ENE flow off Lake Ontario will help to keep temps along the south shore of that lake confined to the 50s.

Tonight the surface high will remain anchored just offshore of the New England coast...while sharp upper-level ridging builds across New York State
Meanwhile further west
an initial cutter-type low will weaken as it tracks from the central Plains states to the Upper Mississippi Valley
As it does so
this system will push its attendant warm front east toward our region...where it will run smack up against the strong ridging that we'll have in place aloft.
With this in mind...it comes as no surprise that the guidance suite continues to trend slower and weaker with the approaching front...
with this feature now appearing to advance east slowly enough to merely bring a general west-east in mid and high cloud cover to most areas tonight...with perhaps the chance of a shower reaching Chautauqua county late
Otherwise the night should remain dry
and will feature considerably milder temperatures than the previous couple nights as a southeasterly return flow of milder air strengthens across our region. Expect lows to range from the upper 30s across the North Country to near 50 along the Lake Erie shoreline...where downsloping will provide an added boost to temps...and may also allow winds to gust to 30-35 mph during the second half of the night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
An upper level trough will dig across the Northern Plains, with a series of diffuse surface lows forecast to track to our north and west during the weekend. A warm front extending from the the first wave of low pressure will move across our region from southwest to northeast on Saturday. The front will weaken late Saturday as it gets further from the surface low. This front will likely bring some showers to the region on Saturday, but the day should be far from a washout. The day will be mostly cloudy with a few hours of showers in some spots, but otherwise warmer with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s with the warmest locations downwind of the Chautauqua Ridge near the Lake Erie shoreline. Southerly flow will maintain above normal temperatures throughout the weekend. 850mb warm up to +12/13 C which will support high temperatures well above normal in the 70s to lower 80s on Sunday.

The combination of the warmer temperatures and the lingering synoptic lift from the lingering/stalled cold front to the north of the area, will support diurnally driven instability and afternoon showers/thunderstorms. A mid-level ridge axis will cross the area Sunday night supporting dry weather Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Departing upper level ridge will maintain mainly rain-free weather for Monday, with only a slight chance of an instability shower or thunderstorm. Monday will almost feel summer-like with highs reaching 80F at many locations.

Low pressure tracking across the central Great Lakes and into Ontario province will push a cold front across the region on Tuesday. Warm and moist air mass in place will result in ample instability to support thunderstorms with the frontal passage, especially Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

After this, forecast confidence decreases with a wider range in the way model guidance handles a series of weak frontal boundaries. In general there's a small chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday, focused during afternoon/evening hours corresponding to diurnal heating. It will be a bit cooler, but temperatures will still remain above normal during this time.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Canadian high pressure centered over eastern New York and western New England will slide to the New England coastline today...while providing us with continued fair dry weather. While there could be some thin/spotty high clouds...as well as very some limited afternoon diurnal cumulus across far western New York...these will not prevent a continuation of unlimited VFR conditions right through 00z Saturday.

Tonight weakening low pressure will make its way from Nebraska to Minnesota...while pushing its attendant warm front toward our region. While this will bring a general west-to-east increase in mid and high cloud cover along with a chance of showers to extreme far southwestern New York late...flight conditions will remain VFR.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with some showers likely and an isolated thunderstorm possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Canadian high pressure centered across eastern New York and western New England will slide further east to the New England coastline today...with a general easterly to northeasterly flow continuing across the lower Great Lakes. On Lake Ontario winds will be more easterly...and will become strong enough to bring advisory-level conditions to the portions of the lake west of Rochester this afternoon and evening
Meanwhile on Lake Erie
winds will back to northeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots once again...resulting in the redevelopment of a moderate chop.

Tonight and Saturday the high will remain anchored off the New England coast...while low pressure tracks from the central Plains to central Ontario. This will result in winds across the Lower Lakes veering to southeast and then south while strengthening later tonight into Saturday...though the increasingly offshore nature of the flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters
As a result
conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.

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