Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 11:40 PM   Moonset 6:59 AM

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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 400 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers from late morning on. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots overnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 271846 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 246 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
An active warm front will press through our region this afternoon and tonight
and while this will generate some shower activity
it will also usher in taste of early summer. Many areas will climb into the 70s on Sunday which will help to fuel some showers and possible thunderstorms. The good news is that bulk of Sunday should be rain free
Looking further down the road
temperatures will remain well above normal for the entirety of the coming week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western counties this afternoon will advance across the Eastern Lake Ontario during the late afternoon and evening...as shortwave energy climbing up the backside of an amplified longwave ridge will make its way across the Lower Great Lakes...along with its attendant sfc warm front. Once the boundary has passed through the far western counties later this afternoon though...dry weather will settle back in along with an airmass change that will include higher temperatures and a noticeable increase in humidity.

The aforementioned warm front will make its way northeastward across the North country tonight...making that area the most active in terms of shower activity
Meanwhile in the wake of the warm front
the bulk of the western counties should be pcpn free into at least the wee hours of Sunday morning. While not convinced that there will be any rainfall over the western counties tonight...guidance has been very consistent with advertising showers for parts of the Srn Tier towards daybreak...likely in response to another arm of shortwave energy that will be making its way up and over the aforementioned longwave ridge. Will thus re-introduce low chc pops for that area after about 08z
Otherwise
tonight will feature a warm night...especially given the calender. Mins will range from around 50 east of Lake Ontario ahead of the warm front...to near 60 back near Lake Erie. The high end of that range will be a solid 15 to 20 degrees above late April normals.

Being firmly entrenched within a warm sector...Sunday will be characterized by summer-like humidity with temps reaching into the lower 70s for the bulk of the region
The humid airmass
complete with Td's in the low to mid 60s across the western counties...will be somewhat favorable for diurnally induced convection. This will especially be the case inland from the lakes during the afternoon.
While lapse rates are not forecast to be overly impressive...'garden variety' thunderstorms will be possible. The LEAST likely area for tstorm activity will be northeast of Lake Erie where lake shadowing on gusty southwest winds should prevail
All in all though
the vast majority will be dry with a southwest wind gusting to 30 mph at times over the western counties.

A cold front will sag southwards and stall just south of Lake Ontario Sunday night. This will lead to thickening clouds with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms...especially near and east of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper level ridge will build into the eastern Great Lakes region Monday. A ribbon of higher than normal PWATs will be on the western side of the ridge, from the Lower Mississippi Valley to southern Ontario. A cold front will likely be stalled and stretched from the Niagara Frontier to the Finger Lakes region. A north-northeast flow on the cool side of the boundary will inhibit mixing of warmer temperatures aloft. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s with locations south of Lake Ontario staying in the low 60s. The stable airmass will keep mostly dry weather from north central NY to Interstate 90. It will be a different story on the warm side of the boundary where temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s, mainly from the Buffalo Southtowns to the Finger Lakes and south across the western Southern Tier. Surface based instability will increase through the afternoon and with help from the close proximity to the axis of higher moisture, showers and a few thunderstorms are possible along and east of the lake breeze boundary.

The upper level ridge axis will move east and the axis of higher PWATS will move into the region overnight. Based off BUF sounding climatology, forecast PWATS will be near the maximum for late April.
The cold front across the region Monday will move north as a warm front and as low-level winds increase from the south. There is growing confidence that additional showers will develop on this warm front. Upstream convection from earlier will approach the region overnight. A convectively induced shortwave trough across southern Ontario may drive showers and thunderstorms into north central overnight. Mild conditions expected Monday night with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

A cold front will be just to the west Tuesday morning. The plume of higher moisture content will spread out and decrease as the upper level ridge flattens across the Northeast Tuesday. Scattered showers will be ongoing across portions of the region, especially around and east of Lake Ontario Tuesday morning. The front will move into western NY Tuesday morning and move east through the afternoon. The current timing of the front looks like areas east of the Genesee Valley will have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is low on the amount of instability Tuesday due to the uncertainty in cloud cover and showers from Tuesday morning. Shear will be in place east of the boundary so if thunderstorms do develop there is a low chance they could be strong. Warm Tuesday with highs from the upper 60s to the low 70s, mid to upper 70s possible across valley locations in the Finger Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will end across western NY by Tuesday evening and east of Lake Ontario by late Tuesday night.
Thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy rainfall but flash flooding is not expected at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weak shortwave ridge moves through the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night which will likely bring dry weather to the region
After that
models shift or even flatten out the ridge aloft by Thursday, and also depict moisture increasing across region. Even with moisture increasing areawide shower and storm potential will all depend on the various advertised subtle features embedded within the flow aloft
For now
have kept chance PoPs (30-50%) beginning Thursday afternoon through the Friday. Beyond Friday, confidence further decreases with little consensus to either a wet or dry forecast for the weekend
Eitherway
it does appear like a mild week is on tap with temperatures remaining well above normal with highs in the 60s Wednesday then climbing into the 70s for all locales.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR cigs with scattered showers will be found across most of the region this afternoon...with the showers mainly being focused on areas east of Rochester. The exception to the VFR weather will be across the Southern Tier where a couple hours of IFR to MVFR cigs can be expected.

While showers will remain in place east of Lake Ontario tonight...
mainly VFR conditions can be expected regionwide. This will change very late tonight and early Sunday morning when cigs will generally lower to 1500-2500 ft.

For Sunday...mainly MVFR cigs are forecast. Cigs will be at IFR to MVFR levels east of Lake Ontario though. These cigs will be accompanied by some showers...mainly during the midday and afternoon when there also be the risk for a thunderstorm or two.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Low pressure will track from Minnesota to central Ontario Province today...while slowly pushing its attendant warm front east and across the Lower Lakes region. This will result a moderately brisk south-southeasterly to southerly flow continuing to overspread the Lower Great Lakes...though the increasingly offshore nature of the flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters
Consequently
conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

Following the passage of the warm front...a general southerly flow across the Lower Great Lakes will weaken some while turning more southwesterly tonight and Sunday. This will result in conditions remaining below advisory criteria
This being said
a few thunderstorms will become possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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