Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 7:04AM||Sunset 4:53PM||Tuesday November 13, 2018 3:03 AM EST (08:03 UTC)||Moonrise 12:17PM||Moonset 9:55PM||Illumination 27%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
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area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
105 am est Tue nov 13 2018
A deepening storm system advancing northward along the northeast
coastline will spread a period of mainly light snow across the
region through the morning hours. As cold air deepens behind this
storm system, a few bands of lake effect snow will form downwind of
both great lakes on a cold northwest flow. This northwest wind will
start Wednesday off cold, with temperatures only rising to around
the freezing mark during the afternoon.
Near term through today
Latest surface analysis shows an area of low pressure starting to
organize off the carolina coastline this early morning. Regional
radars display plentiful virga across our region, with surface obs
showing only spotty areas of actual precipitation reaching the
As we progress through the overnight hours, precipitation will
increase in coverage area as an easterly flow ahead of the surface
low brings additional moisture across our region. Precipitation
should largely fall as snow, but a few pockets of rain will be
possible, especially across lower elevations and closer to the
lakes. Greatest snowfall accumulation through the overnight hours
will be near a tightening baroclinic boundary that will be draped
across cny. Will have a few inches likely for the inland so. Tier
and up through a portion of the finger lakes and towards the tug
hill tonight, with the highest totals across higher terrain.
Elsewhere tonight light snow will likely total less than an inch.
Lows tonight will be around freezing, to just above freezing.
The fairly widespread rain snow mix early Tuesday morning will then
taper off to scattered snow showers in most areas, with some rain
still mixing in through mid afternoon close to the lakes... As the
supporting storm system will exit up the new england coast. This
will effectively remove the h925-70 frontogenetic forcing from our
area... But while synoptic forcing will dramatically weaken...
deepening cold air will set the stage for lake effect to take over.
As we progress through the afternoon... H85 temps over the lakes will
tumble to -12c. Northwest flow will direct some initial lake effect
snow showers into the western southern tier off lake erie, and
southeast of lake ontario. Mesoscale model guidance such as the nmm,
arw, and canadian gem suggest a multitude of squally snow showers
during the afternoon across much of the area from a combination of
some lake effect bands from lake huron and our local lakes, steep
low level lapse rates, and large scale forcing from the incoming mid
level trough. These brief bursts of snow showers may bring low
visibility and fresh coatings of slushy snow to many areas during
the afternoon. Surface temperatures will also begin to fall during
the afternoon, affording these snow showers a better opportunity of
sticking after 2-3pm.
Short term tonight through Friday
Lake effect snow which begins to develop Tuesday afternoon evening
continues to strengthen during the early overnight hours as cold air
continues to build into the region. This event will be short lived
as drier air and less favorable flows develop on Wednesday.
Temperatures will remain below normal this period... With highs
Wednesday remaining below freezing for much of the region.
Off lake erie... The northwest flow will produce multibanded lake
effect snows downwind of the lake with accumulations of a few inches
before the drier air starts building in with diminishing activity
Off lake ontario... The longer fetch combined with upstream
connection will produce a moderate to heavier snowfall likely
targeting wayne, northern cayuga and oswego counties. Will continue
to highlight the potential for heavier snowfall -- half a foot or so
over a 24 hour period -- in the hwo with headlines still not out of
the question. As drier air builds in during the day Wednesday will
look for diminishing snows through the afternoon and evening
hours... With lingering snow showers into the early overnight hours
of Wednesday night.
While Thursday will start off dry across our region as lingering
surface-based ridging begrudgingly slides eastward and off the new
england coast... The fair weather will once again give way to
deteriorating conditions Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday
night as a another complex area of low pressure pushes northeastward
from the southeastern states... And eventually evolves into yet
another deepening coastal low along the mid-atlantic coastline by
Friday morning. Plentiful moisture and lift attendant to this system
will spread increasing chances of precipitation into the area from
the south Thursday afternoon... With fairly widespread precipitation
then following for Thursday night... Before diminishing from west to
east on Friday as the low departs into the canadian maritimes.
Thermal profiles continue to suggest that the atmospheric column
should be cold enough to allow for mainly snow with this event...
though marginal boundary layer temperatures will probably allow some
rain to mix in at the onset Thursday Thursday evening and again on
Friday as the precip lightens and winds down. Otherwise... Temperatures
through the latter half of the short term period will continue to
average solidly below normal... With lows in the mid 20s to lower
30s Thursday night sandwiched in between highs ranging through the
30s Thursday... And in the upper 30s to lower 40s on Friday.
Long term Friday night through Monday |
In the wake of the late-week coastal system... Broad upper level
troughing will once again dominate our weather through the long
term period. This will ensure a continuation of well below normal
temperatures through early next week... With daily highs averaging
close to 10 degrees below normal. At the same time... Such an
environment will also lead to continued opportunities for lake
effect precipitation downwind of the lakes.
Digging a little more into the forecast details... A general west
to west-northwesterly flow will be in place across our region
through Friday night and early Saturday... Before perhaps turning
a little more west-southwesterly to southwesterly on Saturday in
advance of an approaching surface trough. Meanwhile... 850 mb temps
should drop off to the -3c to -6c range Friday night... Before
remaining in this general range or perhaps warming a little on
Saturday out ahead of the aforementioned trough. While certainly
cold enough for a lake response... Such temps aloft will likely
not be cold enough to support all snow... With boundary layer
temperatures the main determining factor for precipitation type.
With this in mind would expect more of a mix of rain and snow
Friday evening and again on Saturday when boundary layer temps
will be warmer... With snow more predominant during the second
half of Friday night. Meanwhile... Precipitation should be much
more widely scattered outside of the main lake effect areas...
with mainly dry weather prevailing the majority of the time. As
for temps... We can expect lows in the lower to mid 30s Friday
night... Followed by highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Saturday.
The surface trough then looks to cross our region Saturday night
along with a more general chance of snow showers... With a west-
northwesterly flow of much colder but also drier air in its wake
then supporting scattered lake effect snow showers southeast of
the lakes later Saturday night through Sunday. With 850 mb temps
falling to around -13c... Sunday will easily be the coldest day of
the period... With highs struggling to get above the upper 20s and
lower 30s areawide - readings that are much more typical of mid
to late january than november.
Surface-based ridging and drier air should build into the region
Sunday night... And this in concert with warming subsidence aloft
should result in lingering lake effect snow showers weakening to
the southeast and east of the lakes. By Monday the medium range
guidance diverges markedly with the GFS gem suggesting the passage
of another trough... While the ECMWF keeps the area mainly dry.
Given the distant time frame... For now have elected to lean more
optimistic and follow the latter scenario... With a mainly dry and
somewhat milder day forecast.
Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
A storm system will advance northward up the atlantic coastline the
first 12 hours of this TAF cycle, and bring a period of snow across
the region. A few pockets of rain will be possible across the lower
elevations. Within this snow visibilities will likely diminish to
around ifr, though ceiling heights will predominately remain MVFR or
This afternoon cold air advection behind the departed area of light
snow will begin to form bands of lake effect snow to the southeast
of both lakes. Snow will largely fall between kroc and ksyr off lake
ontario. Off lake erie some bands of snow will likely diminish
flight conditions for kjhw, mainly after 00z. These bands of lake
effect snow will continue off both lakes through the night, and be
strongest off lake ontario where an upstream connection to georgian
bay is likely.
Wednesday... MainlyVFR, but ifr southeast of both lakes in lake
Thursday night and Friday... MVFR ifr possible in rain and or wet
Saturday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible east of both lakes in
A relatively weak surface pressure gradient over the lower great
lakes this evening will tighten on Tuesday... As a developing storm
will intensify while tracking up the coast of new england. The
corresponding winds will freshen in the process... Likely leading to
small craft advisory conditions for all of the ny nearshore waters
by late Tuesday and certainly Tuesday night.
Small craft advisory conditions will continue Wednesday with
moderate northwesterlies. As high pressure builds across the lower
great lakes on Wednesday night, winds and waves will gradually
subside from west to east.
Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for nyz008-
near term... Hitchcock rsh thomas
short term... Jjr levan
long term... Jjr
marine... Hitchcock rsh
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY||1 mi||63 min||S 2.9 G 5.1||40°F||1022 hPa (-1.4)|
|YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY||20 mi||63 min||NW 12 G 13||41°F||1021 hPa (-0.7)|
|NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY||24 mi||33 min||39°F||1021 hPa|
|BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY||33 mi||33 min||ESE 5.1 G 6||39°F||44°F||1021.1 hPa||27°F|
|45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax||34 mi||63 min||NW 7.8 G 9.7||37°F||44°F||1021.7 hPa (-0.9)|
|PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY||48 mi||33 min||38°F||1020.4 hPa|
Wind History for Buffalo, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY||20 mi||70 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Overcast||37°F||30°F||76%||1021.7 hPa|
Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W||W||W||NW||SW||SW||SW||W||W||W||SW||SW||S||Calm||SE||S||Calm||W||W||SE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||W|
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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