Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olcott, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:53PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 3:03 AM EST (08:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:17PMMoonset 9:55PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1231 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Overnight..West winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain in the morning, then snow likely with scattered rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain and snow Thursday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201811131000;;225745 FZUS51 KBUF 130543 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1231 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-131000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY
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location: 43.33, -78.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 130605
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
105 am est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
A deepening storm system advancing northward along the northeast
coastline will spread a period of mainly light snow across the
region through the morning hours. As cold air deepens behind this
storm system, a few bands of lake effect snow will form downwind of
both great lakes on a cold northwest flow. This northwest wind will
start Wednesday off cold, with temperatures only rising to around
the freezing mark during the afternoon.

Near term through today
Latest surface analysis shows an area of low pressure starting to
organize off the carolina coastline this early morning. Regional
radars display plentiful virga across our region, with surface obs
showing only spotty areas of actual precipitation reaching the
ground.

As we progress through the overnight hours, precipitation will
increase in coverage area as an easterly flow ahead of the surface
low brings additional moisture across our region. Precipitation
should largely fall as snow, but a few pockets of rain will be
possible, especially across lower elevations and closer to the
lakes. Greatest snowfall accumulation through the overnight hours
will be near a tightening baroclinic boundary that will be draped
across cny. Will have a few inches likely for the inland so. Tier
and up through a portion of the finger lakes and towards the tug
hill tonight, with the highest totals across higher terrain.

Elsewhere tonight light snow will likely total less than an inch.

Lows tonight will be around freezing, to just above freezing.

The fairly widespread rain snow mix early Tuesday morning will then
taper off to scattered snow showers in most areas, with some rain
still mixing in through mid afternoon close to the lakes... As the
supporting storm system will exit up the new england coast. This
will effectively remove the h925-70 frontogenetic forcing from our
area... But while synoptic forcing will dramatically weaken...

deepening cold air will set the stage for lake effect to take over.

As we progress through the afternoon... H85 temps over the lakes will
tumble to -12c. Northwest flow will direct some initial lake effect
snow showers into the western southern tier off lake erie, and
southeast of lake ontario. Mesoscale model guidance such as the nmm,
arw, and canadian gem suggest a multitude of squally snow showers
during the afternoon across much of the area from a combination of
some lake effect bands from lake huron and our local lakes, steep
low level lapse rates, and large scale forcing from the incoming mid
level trough. These brief bursts of snow showers may bring low
visibility and fresh coatings of slushy snow to many areas during
the afternoon. Surface temperatures will also begin to fall during
the afternoon, affording these snow showers a better opportunity of
sticking after 2-3pm.

Short term tonight through Friday
Lake effect snow which begins to develop Tuesday afternoon evening
continues to strengthen during the early overnight hours as cold air
continues to build into the region. This event will be short lived
as drier air and less favorable flows develop on Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain below normal this period... With highs
Wednesday remaining below freezing for much of the region.

Off lake erie... The northwest flow will produce multibanded lake
effect snows downwind of the lake with accumulations of a few inches
before the drier air starts building in with diminishing activity
Wednesday morning.

Off lake ontario... The longer fetch combined with upstream
connection will produce a moderate to heavier snowfall likely
targeting wayne, northern cayuga and oswego counties. Will continue
to highlight the potential for heavier snowfall -- half a foot or so
over a 24 hour period -- in the hwo with headlines still not out of
the question. As drier air builds in during the day Wednesday will
look for diminishing snows through the afternoon and evening
hours... With lingering snow showers into the early overnight hours
of Wednesday night.

While Thursday will start off dry across our region as lingering
surface-based ridging begrudgingly slides eastward and off the new
england coast... The fair weather will once again give way to
deteriorating conditions Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday
night as a another complex area of low pressure pushes northeastward
from the southeastern states... And eventually evolves into yet
another deepening coastal low along the mid-atlantic coastline by
Friday morning. Plentiful moisture and lift attendant to this system
will spread increasing chances of precipitation into the area from
the south Thursday afternoon... With fairly widespread precipitation
then following for Thursday night... Before diminishing from west to
east on Friday as the low departs into the canadian maritimes.

Thermal profiles continue to suggest that the atmospheric column
should be cold enough to allow for mainly snow with this event...

though marginal boundary layer temperatures will probably allow some
rain to mix in at the onset Thursday Thursday evening and again on
Friday as the precip lightens and winds down. Otherwise... Temperatures
through the latter half of the short term period will continue to
average solidly below normal... With lows in the mid 20s to lower
30s Thursday night sandwiched in between highs ranging through the
30s Thursday... And in the upper 30s to lower 40s on Friday.

Long term Friday night through Monday
In the wake of the late-week coastal system... Broad upper level
troughing will once again dominate our weather through the long
term period. This will ensure a continuation of well below normal
temperatures through early next week... With daily highs averaging
close to 10 degrees below normal. At the same time... Such an
environment will also lead to continued opportunities for lake
effect precipitation downwind of the lakes.

Digging a little more into the forecast details... A general west
to west-northwesterly flow will be in place across our region
through Friday night and early Saturday... Before perhaps turning
a little more west-southwesterly to southwesterly on Saturday in
advance of an approaching surface trough. Meanwhile... 850 mb temps
should drop off to the -3c to -6c range Friday night... Before
remaining in this general range or perhaps warming a little on
Saturday out ahead of the aforementioned trough. While certainly
cold enough for a lake response... Such temps aloft will likely
not be cold enough to support all snow... With boundary layer
temperatures the main determining factor for precipitation type.

With this in mind would expect more of a mix of rain and snow
Friday evening and again on Saturday when boundary layer temps
will be warmer... With snow more predominant during the second
half of Friday night. Meanwhile... Precipitation should be much
more widely scattered outside of the main lake effect areas...

with mainly dry weather prevailing the majority of the time. As
for temps... We can expect lows in the lower to mid 30s Friday
night... Followed by highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Saturday.

The surface trough then looks to cross our region Saturday night
along with a more general chance of snow showers... With a west-
northwesterly flow of much colder but also drier air in its wake
then supporting scattered lake effect snow showers southeast of
the lakes later Saturday night through Sunday. With 850 mb temps
falling to around -13c... Sunday will easily be the coldest day of
the period... With highs struggling to get above the upper 20s and
lower 30s areawide - readings that are much more typical of mid
to late january than november.

Surface-based ridging and drier air should build into the region
Sunday night... And this in concert with warming subsidence aloft
should result in lingering lake effect snow showers weakening to
the southeast and east of the lakes. By Monday the medium range
guidance diverges markedly with the GFS gem suggesting the passage
of another trough... While the ECMWF keeps the area mainly dry.

Given the distant time frame... For now have elected to lean more
optimistic and follow the latter scenario... With a mainly dry and
somewhat milder day forecast.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
A storm system will advance northward up the atlantic coastline the
first 12 hours of this TAF cycle, and bring a period of snow across
the region. A few pockets of rain will be possible across the lower
elevations. Within this snow visibilities will likely diminish to
around ifr, though ceiling heights will predominately remain MVFR or
vfr.

This afternoon cold air advection behind the departed area of light
snow will begin to form bands of lake effect snow to the southeast
of both lakes. Snow will largely fall between kroc and ksyr off lake
ontario. Off lake erie some bands of snow will likely diminish
flight conditions for kjhw, mainly after 00z. These bands of lake
effect snow will continue off both lakes through the night, and be
strongest off lake ontario where an upstream connection to georgian
bay is likely.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MainlyVFR, but ifr southeast of both lakes in lake
snow.

Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday night and Friday... MVFR ifr possible in rain and or wet
snow.

Saturday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible east of both lakes in
lake snows.

Marine
A relatively weak surface pressure gradient over the lower great
lakes this evening will tighten on Tuesday... As a developing storm
will intensify while tracking up the coast of new england. The
corresponding winds will freshen in the process... Likely leading to
small craft advisory conditions for all of the ny nearshore waters
by late Tuesday and certainly Tuesday night.

Small craft advisory conditions will continue Wednesday with
moderate northwesterlies. As high pressure builds across the lower
great lakes on Wednesday night, winds and waves will gradually
subside from west to east.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for nyz008-
012-020-021.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Hitchcock rsh thomas
short term... Jjr levan
long term... Jjr
aviation... Thomas
marine... Hitchcock rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 1 mi63 min S 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 1022 hPa (-1.4)
YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY 20 mi63 min NW 12 G 13 41°F 1021 hPa (-0.7)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 24 mi33 min 39°F 1021 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 33 mi33 min ESE 5.1 G 6 39°F 44°F1021.1 hPa27°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 34 mi63 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 37°F 44°F1021.7 hPa (-0.9)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 48 mi33 min 38°F 1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY20 mi70 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F30°F76%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmS3CalmS5S4S8S5S6SW9SW10S6S6S4SE3S3CalmE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3
1 day agoW6W6W6NW6SW5SW5SW6W8W9W9SW7SW5S5CalmSE5S4CalmW6W3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW24
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W10W8W11W10W5W9W9W7

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.