Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 5:40AM||Sunset 8:43PM||Saturday May 25, 2019 7:57 AM EDT (11:57 UTC)||Moonrise 12:41AM||Moonset 10:41AM||Illumination 61%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbuf 251017|
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
617 am edt Sat may 25 2019
A pair of frontal systems will move across the region through
tonight, which will produce a couple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be strong with gusty
winds, hail, and heavy rain. High pressure will then ridge
southward from canada and into the great lakes providing mainly
dry weather for Sunday and Monday.
Near term through tonight
There is a risk of strong thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail, and
heavy rain this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk for severe
weather is south of lake ontario where SPC has placed a slight risk.
Heavy rain and localized flooding is possible across the entire
The primary features that will drive our weather is a pair of
frontal boundaries, first a warm front which will be followed by a
cold front. At daybreak, the warm front extends from southern
michigan southeastward into far northeastern ohio. This front
will gradually move northeast and across our region this morning
and into this afternoon. A large area of showers and
thunderstorms have developed just north of this boundary across
eastern michigan and southern ontario province, but the mid-
level flow will direct this cluster 'mainly' to our north.
However, this may clip the niagara frontier this morning, and
scattered thunderstorms cannot be ruled out anywhere near the
warm frontal boundary. Forecast wind profiles show limited
shear as this moves through, so the severe threat is limited
with the warm front this morning. However, precipitable water
values will increase to around 1.75 inches with the warm front,
with localized heavy rain a possibility.
Areas south of lake ontario will break into the warm sector this
afternoon, and there probably will be several hours of dry weather.
There will be some breaks of sunshine in the warm sector which
will increase instability. Here, temperatures will rise into
the upper 70s to around 80 and dew points will rise into the mid
and upper 60s. This will support surface based capes up to
around 2000 j kg. Meanwhile 700 mb winds to 40 knots and
directional differences with height will provide ample shear for
organized convection. Wind shear supports mid-level circulation
which could produce large hail in addition to gusty winds.
Heavy rain will continue to be a threat, and although moderate
storm movement will limit the widespread flooding potential, any
training has the risk to produce localized flash flooding. The
primary focus for this second round of convection will be a pre-
frontal trough which will move across the area 3 - 7 p.M. A
secondary line may develop long the cold front this evening, but
this will be more scattered in nature. Mesoscale guidance
struggles with the specifics of this convection, but model
consensus supports this general thinking. Also, QPF may be a bit
deceptive given the high pwat values, with explicit mesoscale
guidance showing breaks in the convection which may allow some
locations to remain dry. Lake shadowing will likely delay the
arrival of thunderstorms northeast of lake erie, including the
buffalo metro area.
The cold front will gradually move across the region tonight, with
showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east. The severe
weather threat should be done by late evening, with showers expected
to exit east of the forecast area shortly after midnight. After
this, expect some lingering cloud cover with low temperatures in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Some patchy fog is also possible, mainly
along and just ahead of the slow moving cold frontal boundary.
Short term Sunday through Monday night
A weak secondary trough will drop across our region Sunday, clearing
the region of the moderately humid airmass, while possibly bringing
a shower or thunderstorm. Coverage area of precipitation will be
scattered, and greatest towards the state line where deeper moisture
lies. Skies will begin to clear from north to south through the
afternoon and evening as drier air is pushed across our region.
Sunday night and Monday an area of surface high pressure will
advance along the northern shores of the western and central great
lakes, with a northerly flow across our region bringing comfortable
late spring temperatures and lower amounts of humidity.
Monday night this surface high pressure will advance eastward and
allow for a southerly flow to return, pushing a warm front northward
towards our region. There is considerable model differences in the
placement timing of this front... With the GFS much slower than the
nam. If the slower progression of the warm front ensues... It may
remain mostly dry through the night. Regardless of the warm front
placing, Monday night will be several degrees warmer than Sunday
Long term Tuesday through Friday |
Tuesday our weather will deteriorate as the first in the next series
of waves rippling northeastward around the periphery of upper level
ridging anchored across the southeastern states. The models have a
great difference with the position of the surface warm front to
start the period, with the 00z GFS lagging the front back across the
lower ohio valley, while the 00z NAM brings the warm front across
lake ontario. Will start the day with chance pops, and quickly ramp
up to likely with daytime instability and the approach of an upper
level shortwave. The position of the warm front will ultimately
determine the axis of greatest storms rainfall. Afternoon highs will
average several degrees above normal.
A progressive ridge will amplify over the lower great lakes Tuesday
night... And this will help to push a warm front across our forecast
area to the thousand islands southern canada region. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms associated with this boundary will taper off
from south to north (yes... South to north) in the process with
mainly rain free weather anticipated overnight for sites south of
buffalo and rochester. Being in the warm sector... We can anticipate
a non-diurnal temp trend with mins in the lower 60s forecast to
occur near or before midnight.
It will be warm and humid on Wednesday and while the majority of the
day will be rainfree... Conditions over our area should deteriorate
ahead of a pre-frontal trough. This will result in an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms... With a 50kt low level jet
once again promoting strong to severe convection. The highest risk
for strong convection will be south of buffalo and rochester... Away
from the stabilizing effects of a strengthening lake breeze off lake
erie. Temperatures on Wednesday should top out within a few degrees
of 80... With the coolest air being northeast of both lakes erie and
ontario. Meanwhile... H85 temps in the teens should virtually
guarantee highs of least the mid 80s in the genesee valley.
The convection from Wednesday afternoon and evening will die off
during the course of Wednesday night... As we will find ourselves
between the exiting pre frontal trough and approaching cold front.
The cold front and axis of the upper level low will push through our
region on Thursday, with perhaps a few lingering showers, or
Cooler and drier air in the wake of the cold front will support
improving conditions Thursday night and especially Friday. In
fact... There is relatively strong consensus that canadian high
pressure build across the region on Friday to give us a beautiful
day to end the work week.
Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
A warm front will move across the region this morning, which
will provide a focus for some showers and thunderstorms. These
will be most widespread to the north in canada, but a shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at any location with the warm
front this morning. Localized ifr conditions are possible.
More widespread convection will develop along a pre-frontal
trough this afternoon. Lake shadowing is likely to delay the
onset at kbuf iag through mid-afternoon, but after this expect
a line or broken line of showers and thunderstorms to move
through the area with periods of ifr conditions in storms.
This line will push east of the area after 00z, with the cold
front itself approaching this evening but likely to be mainly
dry with just an increase in cloud cover following the frontal
passage late tonight. This will result in areas of MVFR flight
conditions due to lower clouds behind the front late tonight.
Sunday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Southerly winds will increase this morning and then shift to the
southwest ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Winds should peak at
around 15 knots, so no marine headlines are anticipated however there
may be a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening ahead
of a cold front. Winds will gradually turn northwest by Sunday night
into Monday and weaken.
Buf watches warnings advisories
near term... Apffel
short term... Thomas
long term... Rsh thomas
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY||1 mi||57 min||SSE 4.1 G 6||57°F||1018.3 hPa (-1.7)|
|NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY||24 mi||57 min||55°F||1017.7 hPa (-1.0)|
|BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY||33 mi||57 min||ESE 1.9 G 4.1||58°F||56°F||1017.6 hPa (-1.0)||44°F|
|45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax||34 mi||57 min||ENE 7.8 G 9.7||47°F||46°F||1 ft||1017.6 hPa (-1.4)|
|45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby||44 mi||117 min||NNE 5.8 G 5.8||47°F||46°F||1 ft||1017.3 hPa (-1.0)|
|PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY||48 mi||57 min||60°F||1016.9 hPa (-1.2)|
Wind History for Buffalo, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY||20 mi||64 min||SE 3||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||54°F||51°F||90%||1017.5 hPa|
Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||SW||SW||S||SW||SW|
|2 days ago||E||E||E||E||E|
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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