Sunday, March24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday March 24, 2019 5:09 AM EDT (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:13PMMoonset 8:46AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ464 Expires:201903242000;;834664 Fzus63 Kdtx 240803 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 403 Am Edt Sun Mar 24 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure, 30.60 inches, will move from central canada today to the western great lakes on Monday at 30.40 inches. This high will drive a cold front, 30.10 inches, across lake huron this afternoon on its way to the ohio valley tonight. The high pressure will remain over the great lakes region through Tuesday before departing to the east on Wednesday. Lhz462>464-242000- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 403 am edt Sun mar 24 2019
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon...then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon...then building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming south 5 to 10 knots late in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet until early morning.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots until early morning. A chance of rain until early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
LHZ464


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 240740
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
340 am edt Sun mar 24 2019

Discussion
Msas analysis this morning places the center of surface high
pressure at 1026 mb over the ohio river. A surface ridge axis
extends northward into the great lakes with support for high
pressure having shifted to shortwave ridging aloft. A weak vertically
stacked low pressure system is spinning over portions of the mo
river valley. Strong model consensus exists that shows the low
pressure system releasing eastward today while undergoing a
significant amount of weakening. A weak col is noted over lower
michigan during the midday period in response to sheared out cyclonic
vorticity ejecting eastward and diabatic surface heating. This
weakness will help mid-high cloud canopy build persist over the state
today. Difficult to figure what impact this high cloud will have on
temperatures. With little to no lower tropospheric moisture for the
first half of today, preference is to favor mild daytime temperatures
in the lower to middle 50s.

High predictability feature to key off of today and this evening is
aggressive backdoor cold front that is currently pushing due
southward toward lake superior lake huron. Classic shallow cold
front setup with acceleration of the cold front southward due to
rapid transition to anticyclonic flow in the presence of intertial
instability. The cold front is expected to clear the northern thumb
by 21z and through metro detroit between 00-06z. Wind directions
will rapidly flip to the northeast with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph
range. Model trends have supported a lowering of pops both during
the afternoon and evening. Plan views and cross sections suggest a
general lack in system relative isentropic ascent with main
precipitation potential arising merely from differential
increase advection of equivalent potential temperature in the
925-700mb layer. There is some suggestion that a frontal zone may
exist at approximately 600mb, but system relative progs are fairly
clear in showing downglide through that layer. Gut feeling is the
best activity will occur with frontal wave is it rolls through the
northern ohio river valley. Chance pops for rain exist south of
detroit to the ohio border in the 21-03z time window. Expecting quite
a bit of virga, just not sure exactly how much of it will reach the
ground. It remains clear this will be a low QPF event for those that
measure. Very low potential for snow to mix in.

Aggressive surface high pressure will be in control of the region
through the middle of the week. Chilly temperatures are expected
with readings some 7 degrees below normal Monday, some 3 to 7
degrees below normal Tuesday. However, clear skies will make
conditions pleasant.

Southwesterly return flow will ramp up Wednesday allowing
temperatures to respond to around 50 degrees. Warming aloft will
bring steep midlevel lapse rates and chances for nocturnal shower
development Wednesday night. The question for the end of the week is
where will the baroclinic zone set up as flow is forecasted to
become zonal. This will be important as the pattern will favor
active weather precipitation for locations over the great
lakes midwest.

Marine
A cold front will push south across lake huron this afternoon. The
front will be marked with a wind shift to the northeast. Good post
frontal cold air advection will support a period of gusty winds
behind the front, up around 20 knots, persisting to Monday morning.

There is likely to be higher gusts across saginaw bay as the
northeast winds funnel into the bay. The combination of gusty winds
and building waves will support small craft advisory conditions
across lake huron and saginaw bay from late this afternoon through
Monday morning. Strong high pressure will then expands across the
region Monday and will reside through Tuesday. This will support a
gradual decrease in the winds late Monday night into Tuesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1155 pm edt Sat mar 23 2019
aviation...

while there will be an increase in the high clouds Sun morning,
ample low to mid level dry air associated with high pressure
departing toward the mid atlantic will sustain clear skies below 12z
feet through daybreak. The southwest gradient on the back side of
this high will support a light wind through the morning. A cold
front will advance into SRN mi from the north late in the day
Sunday. This front will lead to a rapid wind shift to the northeast,
with a possible short duration of MVFR strato cu. A brief period of
wind gusts over 20 knots following the cold front is also expected
as colder air rushes into the region.

For dtw... The cold front is forecast to pass through metro around
03z Sunday, again leading to a rapid wind shift to the northeast.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 pm edt Monday
for lhz421-441>443.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt Monday
for lhz422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt Monday for
lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt Monday for
lez444.

Discussion... Cb
marine... ... .Cb
aviation... ..Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 27 mi70 min 36°F 1021.3 hPa (-1.1)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi52 min SW 8.9 G 11 33°F 1020.8 hPa21°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi52 min 33°F 1020.9 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi52 min WSW 9.9 G 16 38°F 36°F1019.7 hPa23°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last
24hr
NW11
G15
NW7
G12
NW11
G14
NW6
G9
NW6
G11
NW9
G14
NW6
G11
NE10
NE11
E8
E8
E8
E8
E7
NE3
SW5
SW7
G10
SW7
SW8
SW8
SW7
SW7
SW8
SW7
G11
1 day
ago
W8
G16
NW10
G17
NW9
G13
N11
G16
NE21
G26
NE19
G24
NE28
NE22
G27
NE25
NE32
NE35
NE31
NE34
NE31
NE27
G33
NE27
G33
N19
G29
NW9
G15
N7
G10
N14
G19
N12
G19
N11
G17
N12
G19
NW8
G12
2 days
ago
S6
G9
S7
S4
SE4
S4
SW3
NW4
NE4
NE6
NE6
E11
NE4
N5
G8
NW6
G10
NW6
G12
NW4
G12
NW4
G7
W5
G9
W6
W5
W5
G9
W5
G8
W7
G10
W6
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi15 minSSW 410.00 miFair27°F23°F86%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last 24hrNW6W4W4NW6NW9N7W6NW5W4SW5NW6W5W6W5W3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3Calm
1 day agoW4NW7NW6NW8
G18
NW8
G17
N8
G20
N10
G17
N13
G22
NW14
G19
N11
G18
N9
G19
N15
G23
NE9
G17
N13
G25
N10
G18
N8N4NW4NW4N5NW6NW5N9
G15
NW8
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4NW3W5NW6NW7W7W5W7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.