Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 9:13PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:05 AM EDT (04:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:21AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 928 Pm Edt Sun Jun 17 2018
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ464 Expires:201806180800;;702845 FZUS63 KDTX 180130 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 928 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...The Great Lakes remains positioned between high pressure, 30.10 inches, over the east coast and low pressure, 29.60 inches, over the northern Plains. Low pressure will release through northern Michigan this evening eventually pulling a trough of low pressure, 29.80 inches, through the region Monday evening. LHZ462>464-180800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 180242
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1042 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018

Update
Forecast for tonight is on target with convection moving across
northern wi and into the straights area. All of the hi-res runs had a
decent handle on this evolution with increasing debris clouds
overnight especially across the northern half of the forecast area.

Temperatures remain around 80 to lower 80s as we approach 03z.

Southwest winds should stay up in the 8 to 10 knot range which will
keep temperatures from falling much. All the latest forecast runs
are starting to come in a shade warmer toward the thoughts of the
12z ecmwf. That couple of extra degrees for the I 69 corridor will be
enough to keep the heat advisory into Monday, especially considering
that there isn't much relief expected overnight. Will expand the heat
advisory for that corridor before their advisory expires.

Prev discussion
Issued at 703 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018
aviation...

vfr conditions will continue through the night with just some cirrus
around. Southwest wind will settle to 8 to 10 knots through the bulk
of the night. By Monday morning, debris cloud from upstream
convection will be over all of southeast mi. Expect broken cumulus
to develop closer to the front and or outflow boundaries for mbs fnt
mid morning on Monday. It won't be until the afternoon for the
broken cumulus for the detroit area tafs. With diurnal mixing,
winds will quickly increase on Monday with gusts reaching the mid 20
knots.

Best chances of thunderstorms will be around 18z for mbs and after
18z for fnt. Will just have a prob30 for the very late afternoon for
the detroit area tafs.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion...

issued at 246 pm edt Sun jun 17 2018
discussion...

hot and humid conditions will persist into tonight as strong ridge
of high pressure remains poised over the area. After topping out in
the lower mid 90s late this afternoon, expect temperatures to edge
back through the 80s this evening and bottom out only in the middle
70s late tonight.

Will maintain the heat advisory through midnight for the i-69
corridor counties northward and extend the advisory through Monday
afternoon further south as temperatures once again climb into the
lower 90s (with heat index readings around 100) before a frontal
boundary sags south into the area. This front (and associated clouds
and or precipitation) will hold temperatures down a bit in the 80s
to near 90 over northern areas on Monday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from Monday into
Monday night as this frontal boundary settles south through the
area. The exact nature of this activity is a bit difficult to pin
down as a late night MCS over northern lower michigan may very well
push the effective surface front convergence zone south into the
middle of the forecast area as it brush the northern portions of the
forecast area. This may very well cause the effective surface front
to settle south into the middle of the region with additional
showers and thunderstorms firing late in the day in the i-69 m-59
corridors and slowly settling south from there. In general, however,
expect the highest precipitation chances to settle north to south
across the area from Monday into Monday night. With the low shear
environment in place and rather unimpressive mid level lapses rates,
severe weather is not much of a concern with any of this activity.

However, locally heavy rainfall is likely before the front shifts
south of the area by early Tuesday morning.

High pressure will then settle into the region Tuesday into Tuesday
night with a high likelihood for a backdoor front off of lake huron.

This will make conditions much more comfortable with readings right
back to average for the third week of june. Any shower and
thunderstorm chances will also be suppressed to near the michigan
and ohio state line as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls
over the northern ohio valley into midweek.

Other than a few lingering showers Wednesday morning, dry conditions
will work southward into the region as high pressure builds across
the great lakes for the midweek period. Temperatures will remain
near average Wednesday through Friday as dry, pleasant conditions
prevail with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The next chance
for showers and thunderstorms will arrive late week as low pressure
over the central plains lifts into the region.

Marine...

moderate southwesterly flow will continue through much of Monday
with gusts limited to less than 20 knots as a hot and stable airmass
lingers over the region. A cold front will begin to sag south across
the region late Monday through Monday night. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage. Favorable boating
conditions return Tuesday as cooler and drier air filters into the
region behind the front Tuesday as winds shift to the northeast and
remain light under 15 knots. Favorable boating conditions will
continue Wednesday and Thursday as the light flow varies between
northwest and northeast under 15 knots.

Hydrology...

showers and thunderstorms will accompany a frontal passage late
Monday through Monday night, with activity possibly lingering into
early Tuesday. A quarter to one half of an inch of rain is expected
with the frontal passage for most areas, with locally higher amounts
possible with the strongest storms. Widespread areal and river
flooding is not anticipated, although poor drainage flooding of low
lying and urban areas will be possible. Drier weather will move in
behind the frontal passage for the second half of Tuesday and
continuing through the midweek period.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Heat advisory until midnight edt tonight for miz047>049-053>055.

Heat advisory until 6 pm edt Monday for miz060>063-068>070-075-076-
082-083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Rbp
aviation... ..Rbp
discussion... Dg jd
marine... ... .Irl
hydrology... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 13 mi66 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 59°F1 ft1013.5 hPa (+0.7)
PSCM4 27 mi66 min SW 6 G 8.9 84°F 1014.2 hPa (+0.7)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi48 min SW 5.1 G 7 82°F 1014 hPa68°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi48 min 80°F 1014 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi48 min WSW 6 G 8 83°F 1012.8 hPa69°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi10 minSSW 310.00 miFair75°F66°F74%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S7S6S7S5S5S9S8S6S6SW5S4S3S3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5CalmNW5SE6SE6S6CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE6NE6N4NE7NE6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.